|Secretary of State Kerry, and my old boss, Nabil Fahmy, now Egyptian Foreign Minister.|
Things do not look so good in Egypt. The country has strayed fairly far from the goals of the Revolution, in my opinion. I am really hoping to go to Egypt some time in June.
Egypt is becoming increasingly dependent on financial inflows from the Gulf. Gulf Inflows (Cargnegie Endowment). This is a problem for several reasons. Egypt has traditionally been a relatively secular, politically moderate state, with a strong Sunni heritage, but a tolerance for multi-culturalism. The Gulf states, by contrast, particularly the wealthy Saudi Arabia tend to observe Wahabiism. Wahabis are much stricter, much more puritanical, and much more missionary than mainline Sunnis. (Compare evangelicals to Methodists for example) This financial dependency could push Egypt into a more radical position culturally, and a much less tolerant position.
Egypt tentatively has scheduled presidential elections in May. The IMF, according to Carnegie, has bought into the "restoration of democracy" narrative postulated by the Egyptian government. Personally, I do not see how a coup by the military doth democracy make. Here is a good quote.
There is also historic precedent for dealing with Egypt regardless of its domestic political climate. The IMF dealt with former president Hosni Mubarak as compensation for Egyptian support for coalition forces during the First Gulf War, whose government by then had a less than optimal record on human rights, civil governance, and transparency. The g