Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Egypt Election Q and A

Here are some good resources on the Egyptian election

Carnegie Endowment Electing a New Egypt.

Arabist Egyptian Election Page

Al Jazeera Infographic on Egyptian Elections 

New York Times Revolution and Aftermath

Here is a review of the basics:

There are 27 Governorates in Egypt. Egypt has a population of 80 million. 50 million persons are eligible to vote. Expatriates in possession of an Egyptian passport can vote at their local consulate.

The People's Assembly elections will be held on November 28th-29th (Kafr El Sheikh, Port Said, Damietta, Cairo, Helwan, Alexandria) December 14, 2011, (Beni Suef, Giza, Ismailiya, Beheira, Suez, Sohag Qena, Luxor, Aswan, Sharqiya, Menoufiya) and finally January 3, 2012 (Marsa Matrouh, Minya. New Valley, North Sinai, South Sinai). Full results for the lower house will likely be announced after January.

The Shura Council elections will be held on January 29th, February 14th, and March 4th in the same sequence.

The date of the Presidential election has not yet been decided.

The election is a mixture of a closed list system (2/3), and a first past the post single winner system (1/3). Here is my explanation of that system. The Book of Lists

I have just updated my list of which parties are running women in large numbers or high positions. Please take a look. Which Egyptian parties represent women?

Furthermore, each list must contain individuals certified as either "workers" or "farmers," a holdover from the Nasserist era.

Here is my discussion of blocs. Egyptian political blocs

Predictions: I predict (Just a hunch. Just a gamble)
  • Muslim Brotherhood will win 30%  of the seats in the People's Assembly. 
  • El Adl will also be a big winner, taking about 15% of seats.
  • I expect all Copts and many Muslim liberals and leftists to vote for the Egyptian Bloc, or the Revolution Continues Bloc. Those groups should win about 15% each. 
  • The remaining seats will be divided between Al Nour, Wasat, El Wafd, and a variety of other parties and individuals.

1 comment:

  1. “Duaa for Egypt” Campaign حملة الدعاء من أجل مصر

    AsSalaamu alaykum

    Nu'man bin Bashir (May Allah be pleased with them) reported: Messenger of Allah said, 'The believers in their mutual kindness, compassion and sympathy are just like one body. When one of the limbs suffers, the whole body responds to it with wakefulness and fever'. [Al-Bukhari and Muslim].

    Brothers and Sisters with all the disturbing events that have and are happening in Egypt, please make Duaa دعاء for the stabilization of Egypt and the rectification of the rulers.

    So may Allah (SWT) protect Egypt, the Egyptian people, and the Egyptian rulers and us; guide them and us to the haqq and firmness upon it; rectify all of our affairs; the affairs of the Muslim rulers and all those they rule over.

    May Allah accept,

    Universal Union of Egyptian Expatriates

    ABOUT THIS CAUSE هدف هذه الحملة هو طلب العون من الله لنعبر ببلدنا إلى بر الأمان

    اللهم احفظ مصر واهلها وكل ما فيها