Several steps lie ahead in order for the current military government in Egypt to turn power over to a civilian government. Among these steps are writing a new constitution, electing a parliament, and electing a new president, or prime Minister. A cautionary note-- The likelihood that Egypt will become a full fledged democracy in a year is fairly low. To use a mathematical term, democracy in Egypt in the immediate term is a low-probability event. Democracy watchers in Egypt would be well-advised to be patient-- very patient.
Indeed, as a point of comparison, Kenya, received its independence in 1963. The first truly competitive multi-party election in Kenya was held in 2002, resulting in the first Kenyan president who was truly freely and fairly elected by the Kenyan people. The next election, 2007, did not go so well, and degenerated into a bloodbath, with nearly 2000 dead, and thousands of internally displaced people. In a heartening development, the Kenyan people passed a progressive new Constitution in a free and fair election in August, 2010, giving succor to those who were worried that Kenya's fledgling democracy would not make it. The 2012 election will be a test of the strength of Kenya's emerging democracy. Forty eight years after Independence, Kenya is not yet a full-fledged democracy, rather, it remains a hybrid regime, with some authoritarian tendencies. That being said, Kenya is one of the freest countries in its vicinity. I provide this example to remind the Egypt observer that this is a long path Egypt has started down. Hopefully, they will attain full democracy in a year. My fingers are crossed that Egypt will be so blessed.
One debate that has raged in Egypt the entire spring has been the timing of elections.The military has committed to holding parliamentary elections, followed by a new constitution, and presidential elections. One problem with this schedule is: 1) it does not provide sufficient time for developing a new constitution, and 2) It seems to foreclose the possibility of a true parliamentary system with a prime minister, in favor of a "strong president" system.
A threat to the emergence of a full democracy in Egypt is the SCAF's reluctance to "renounce its role in managing the affairs of the country during this crucial time in Egypt's history." (Staff, "Egypt's Deputy PM resign amid protests," Al Jazeera, July 12, 2011). Indeed, the military is moving to protect an even expand its authority. Observers had been heartened that several parties had agreed to adopt a "declaration of basic principles," to govern the drafting of the Egyptian Constitution. The thinking was that this declaration would protect a civil state, and reign in the Islamists. (Author interview with Abdel Ghaffr Shokr). However, legal scholars working on the document now suggest that the military might use the declaration to spell out the military's role in the civilian government.
One worrying provision in this declaration of basic principles, is that it could potentially make the defense budget unavailable for public or parliamentary review. (David D. Kirkpatrick, "Egypt Military Aims to Cement Muscular Role in Government," New York Times, July 16, 2011) Given that the defense budget is a huge proportion of Egypt's current budget, this provision could be extremely problematic. (Author interview with Samer Soliman). If the military retains the right to intervene broadly in Egyptian politics, it would limit popular sovereignty, constraining the emerging Egyptian democracy.
Further, I worry about the wisdom of rushing the constitutional process. In general, constitutions take years to write. By sandwiching the constitutional drafting process in between parliamentary elections and presidential elections, the SCAF is de facto limiting the time available to deliberate on the provisions of the constitution. We saw hints of this kind of a rushed process in the military's rush to put the constitutional amendments to a referendum in a matter of weeks. After little public debate, and an accelerated process, the referendum went well enough. But it was then followed by a military decree of over 50 constitutional amendments with no public input whatsoever. This process is not really a process, and is not really a democratic process.
Steps should be put in place to ensure that the parliament has a strong role in the new constitution, both on paper, and in practice. The old parliament under Mubarak, dominated by the state sanctioned National Democratic Party, was little more than a rubber stamp. Indeed, a fact-finding judicial committee recently ruled that Safwat al-Sharif, the former speaker of the Shura, and other parliamentarians masterminded the "Camel Battle" on February 2, 2011, that left several protesters dead. (Staff, Egyptians demand post-revolution changes," Al Jazeera, July 15, 2011)
The conventional wisdom had been that parliamentary elections would be held in September. Nonetheless, this schedule seemed rushed, given that Ramadan ends on August 30th (more or less). In an interview with Abdel Ghaffr Shokr in late June, Shokr explained that given the multiple steps that are required to hold elections, September elections simply were not feasible. This analysis was confirmed when the SCAF said preparations for the vote would begin on September 30th, 2011. (AP, "Arab Spring hardens into Summer of Stalemates," The Washington Post, July 14, 2011). In many ways, this delayed schedule is good news, as it gives more time for civilian, non-Islamist, non-NDP political forces to prepare for the parliamentary vote.
Showing posts with label Abdel Ghaffr Shokr. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Abdel Ghaffr Shokr. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Friday, July 8, 2011
Political Parties in The New Egypt
These represent partial notes taken by me at a conference. The conference was called From Tahrir: Revolution or Democratic Transition? June 4-6, 2011. Oriental Hall, AUC Tahrir Square.
These notes were from a 9:00 a.m. panel on June 5, 2011 called The Future of Political Parties The panel was in both English and Arabic. The speakers were Samer Soliman, the American University in Cairo, Ibrahim El-Hodiaby, activist and researcher, Abdel Ghaffar Shokr, Center for African Studies and activist. The panel was moderated by Nathan Brown, George Washington University.
I did my absolute best to create a verbatim transcription. Any errors are my own.
Western countries and Gulf countries are pumping a lot of money into Egypt to make Egypt follow their model.
There is a social schism. Everyone is establishing a party to call for their needs. There are new activists. Millions of people want to be activists. Egyptian people want to live with integrity and respect. There is a ferocious kind of conflict to determine the future of Egypt, whether it will be an Islamist country. People are hating authoritarianism. Revolutionaries can lobby to get SCAF to do what they want. This makes the outlook a little optimistic. I believe that Egypt is on its way to democracy.
Dr. Samer Soliman
The challenges facing newly founded democratic parties are many. The Democratic Front party. They are well organized. Tagamoo was there. Before the 25th of January, the NDP was not a party. It was a network of profiteering, and interests and security.
Post the 23rd of July Revolution [Author's note ?] Parties had the same message. The Opposition was asked to go on opposing for life. If they were accepted, they were just pressure lobbies. This changed after the Revolution.
We have the old parties. There are 24 old parties. They don't live up to the definition of parties. El Wafd, Nasserites, Political Front. Most of the old parties are without ideological orientation. For example, an ideology of Anti-Nasserism. These parties are characterized by senility and stagnation.
There are younger parties. New parties, and new faces. In the old parties, money plays an important role. The elite that we are facing. Yesterday, we were meeting with the minister of finance. There should be a law enacted to reduce taxation in our view. He said that there is no single person who is for real estate taxation. [Author's note: there is a lot of uncontrolled real estate speculation in Cairo. It is a real urban planning problem. If you taxed these developments, it would control it somewhat]
There are real challenges facing the civil based parties. First, there is a lack of social depth. No common goals. Parties are made up of individuals, not social groups. The most dynamic area in society under Mubarak was in religion. Religion was a very vibrant domain. The federation of labor unions is dying. It was supported by the NDP, but now they are supporting the SCAF. Independent trade unionist leaders are very promising, but not very politically mature.
Second, the One million man march slogans included "we don't want parties." Tagamoo had a platform. Wanted to dismantle parties. Some don't want parties.. Don't want to join or establish an organization. The 6th of April movement was influenced by Serbia.
The youth group will not turn immediately into parties.
The third challenge is the absence of institutions. Now we have the party of Naguib Sawiris. You need to shed light on who the major members are.
Fourth, there is a challenge of the legislative and institutional framework. The SCAF needs to find a new mode of discussion. They met the Coalition of Youth for the Revolution for two hours. The Command structure of the SCAF takes us back to the Nasserite era. They are adopting a semi-authoritarian regime structure [Author's note, where is the semi, I only see authoritarian!]
They want proportional representation. This includes women and non-Muslims. A proportional list is the most suitable solution for Egypt. The SCAF has been running the country for four months, yet no party has been asked to sit down with them. Parliamentarian representation should include half laborers and half farmers. In the past, those seats were given to people who were not really farmers. [Not sure if the word used here was fellaheen?]
The religious schism emanates from the history of Egypt. It is changing rapidly and sharply. I would share the optimism of Ghaffr. There are small sporadic parties. The upcoming Parliament may be fragmented. Representation will be very difficult for the transition period. This Parliament has to draft the Constitution. We need to look forward to the elections of 2016. Hopefully, five or six new parties can actually survive. The public needs to choose its own parties.
The Parliament may only go on for a year. The SCAF says that the Parliament will go on longer. We have heard about a party that has run a lot of advertisements. Now, I disagree with Shokr that some parties have received money from abroad. We have to stop poisoning the political atmosphere without proof.
Do not discriminate against parties without reference. There is total equality between all political parties within {?}
Question and Answer
Answer: Samer Soliman
There is no municipal law nowadays. We do not have a relevant law re managing their administration. One of the pressing demands of the revolution was to elect governors. The condition of collecting the 5000 signatures forced parties to go into rural areas.
Answer: Abdel Ghaffr Shokr
There is a law which punishes those who receive foreign funding. There needs to be a balance in Parliament so we can write the Constitution. There should be leeway for independent candidates.
Answer: Ibrahim El Hodhiaby
One party is worried that the Islamists are growing in numbers. Islamists are moving into new territories. Moving as if expecting new list to fall. We should find some common ground between the Muslim Brotherhood and the civil parties. Let us first find common ground. I believe that there is a difference between the different political parties expectations and their Parliament. The representation of the MB is not going to exceed a certain amount.
These notes were from a 9:00 a.m. panel on June 5, 2011 called The Future of Political Parties The panel was in both English and Arabic. The speakers were Samer Soliman, the American University in Cairo, Ibrahim El-Hodiaby, activist and researcher, Abdel Ghaffar Shokr, Center for African Studies and activist. The panel was moderated by Nathan Brown, George Washington University.
I did my absolute best to create a verbatim transcription. Any errors are my own.
Abdel Ghaffr Shokr
The Muslim Brotherhood are financing the party and establishing their Constitution. This is the political wing of a religious movement.
The problem is the remainder of the political thought. Concerning the future of political parties. The parties law caused more limitations. It said 5000 members. Did not solve the problem of financing. There is a lack of equitable competition if you hide behind the veil of religion, it is not equitable. There is a weakness of the youth of the Revolution in forming structures for themselves.
Western countries and Gulf countries are pumping a lot of money into Egypt to make Egypt follow their model.
There is a social schism. Everyone is establishing a party to call for their needs. There are new activists. Millions of people want to be activists. Egyptian people want to live with integrity and respect. There is a ferocious kind of conflict to determine the future of Egypt, whether it will be an Islamist country. People are hating authoritarianism. Revolutionaries can lobby to get SCAF to do what they want. This makes the outlook a little optimistic. I believe that Egypt is on its way to democracy.
Dr. Samer Soliman
The challenges facing newly founded democratic parties are many. The Democratic Front party. They are well organized. Tagamoo was there. Before the 25th of January, the NDP was not a party. It was a network of profiteering, and interests and security.
Post the 23rd of July Revolution [Author's note ?] Parties had the same message. The Opposition was asked to go on opposing for life. If they were accepted, they were just pressure lobbies. This changed after the Revolution.
We have the old parties. There are 24 old parties. They don't live up to the definition of parties. El Wafd, Nasserites, Political Front. Most of the old parties are without ideological orientation. For example, an ideology of Anti-Nasserism. These parties are characterized by senility and stagnation.
There are younger parties. New parties, and new faces. In the old parties, money plays an important role. The elite that we are facing. Yesterday, we were meeting with the minister of finance. There should be a law enacted to reduce taxation in our view. He said that there is no single person who is for real estate taxation. [Author's note: there is a lot of uncontrolled real estate speculation in Cairo. It is a real urban planning problem. If you taxed these developments, it would control it somewhat]
There are real challenges facing the civil based parties. First, there is a lack of social depth. No common goals. Parties are made up of individuals, not social groups. The most dynamic area in society under Mubarak was in religion. Religion was a very vibrant domain. The federation of labor unions is dying. It was supported by the NDP, but now they are supporting the SCAF. Independent trade unionist leaders are very promising, but not very politically mature.
Second, the One million man march slogans included "we don't want parties." Tagamoo had a platform. Wanted to dismantle parties. Some don't want parties.. Don't want to join or establish an organization. The 6th of April movement was influenced by Serbia.
The youth group will not turn immediately into parties.
The third challenge is the absence of institutions. Now we have the party of Naguib Sawiris. You need to shed light on who the major members are.
Fourth, there is a challenge of the legislative and institutional framework. The SCAF needs to find a new mode of discussion. They met the Coalition of Youth for the Revolution for two hours. The Command structure of the SCAF takes us back to the Nasserite era. They are adopting a semi-authoritarian regime structure [Author's note, where is the semi, I only see authoritarian!]
They want proportional representation. This includes women and non-Muslims. A proportional list is the most suitable solution for Egypt. The SCAF has been running the country for four months, yet no party has been asked to sit down with them. Parliamentarian representation should include half laborers and half farmers. In the past, those seats were given to people who were not really farmers. [Not sure if the word used here was fellaheen?]
The religious schism emanates from the history of Egypt. It is changing rapidly and sharply. I would share the optimism of Ghaffr. There are small sporadic parties. The upcoming Parliament may be fragmented. Representation will be very difficult for the transition period. This Parliament has to draft the Constitution. We need to look forward to the elections of 2016. Hopefully, five or six new parties can actually survive. The public needs to choose its own parties.
The Parliament may only go on for a year. The SCAF says that the Parliament will go on longer. We have heard about a party that has run a lot of advertisements. Now, I disagree with Shokr that some parties have received money from abroad. We have to stop poisoning the political atmosphere without proof.
Do not discriminate against parties without reference. There is total equality between all political parties within {?}
Question and Answer
Q: The Islamic current should mature. But Al Ikhwan says power is not in the hands of the people. Rather itis in the hands of the fatwas and Islamic scholars. Is the Brotherhood feeling excluded? Does this lead to higher demands?
Q: How do we unify parties?
Q: Will there be a rule against receiving money from a foreign country?
Q: What is the strategy about local elections? There is no municipal law nowadays. We do not have a relevant law re managing their administration. One of the pressing demands of the revolution was to elect governors. The condition of collecting the 5000 signatures forced parties to go into rural areas.
There is a law which punishes those who receive foreign funding. There needs to be a balance in Parliament so we can write the Constitution. There should be leeway for independent candidates.
Answer: Ibrahim El Hodhiaby
One party is worried that the Islamists are growing in numbers. Islamists are moving into new territories. Moving as if expecting new list to fall. We should find some common ground between the Muslim Brotherhood and the civil parties. Let us first find common ground. I believe that there is a difference between the different political parties expectations and their Parliament. The representation of the MB is not going to exceed a certain amount.
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