The Ides of March

         Although there has been no shortage of depressing news with regards to politics in 2017, the release of the modern pharaoh  Hosni Mubarak on March 13 is some of the worst, in my view. Al Ahram put it better than I could have, noting 

"The former autocrat ruled Egypt from 1981 until a popular uprising ousted him on 11 February 2011."

In a somewhat incredulous statement, Mubarak's lawyer Farid al Deeb claims that his client owns no money or property outside of Egypt, and is now borrowing American President Donald Trump's phrase of "false news" in defense of his client. Meanwhile, amidst these denials, a Swiss bank states that they have frozen close to 500 million in Egyptian assets linked to the Mubarak family. 

          In 2012, relatively free elections ushered into power the Islamist leader, Mohammed Morsi’s administration, which was short lived as his leadership was deposed by General Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in 2013.  Since then, the Sisi administration has drafted draconian laws that prevented illegal protests, which was a strategic law to prevent any dissenting views hence increased the number of political arrests. The police made more recent arrests of Muslim Brotherhood militia personnel who made several attacks on the police and army in Cairo through exchange of fire leading to the death of a civilian. In good news, the Egyptian Supreme Court has declared portions of the controversial protest law unconstitutional. 

            The New York Times piece on the prominent youth leader (Ahmed Maher) during the 2011 uprising, explains how Egyptian judges used draconian laws to find him guilty of illegal demonstration and ‘thuggery.'  Maher was sentenced to three years in the Tora Prison, which is a notorious complex housing political prisoners and criminals. Maher is still monitored closely by the police because the government views his influence over social media as "a terroristic threat". As a result, he spends 12 out of 24 hours of each day with the police to ensure that he is not inciting any dissenting views to topple the new administration as well. 

         France has been eyeing Egypt as a strategic partner in to become a major military force in the region. I thought Egypt was already a huge military force in the region. Egypt has long been an ally of USA and receives over a billion a year in military aid from the US.  

Indeed, the US provided $6.5 billion in military assistance to Cairo between 2011 and 2015.  As a result, President Trump is expected to visit Egypt from April 1 to 4 as a follow-up of their 23 January 2017 phone conversation to discuss ways to increase bi-lateral relations. Let's hope they do not trade notes on how to crush dissent . . . .

WMB 

Huge thanks to my wonderful graduate assistant Shem Ngwira in helping me put together this piece. 

Mubarak's Rise and Fall

They say that if you are going to commit a crime, you should commit a big one, like the Savings and Loan scandal, or the Wall Street Credit default swap debacle, or in the case of former Egyptian President Mubarak, perhaps, loot a country for a generation. 

In the run up to the verdict, the main response of Egyptians was a big yawn. 

The Washington Post reported that  the "trial of the century" for Egypt has largely dropped from people's attention, partly because of its length, and partly because of the massive protests that began in June 2013, during the retrial. After the protests against the domination of Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood that brought to his ouster, TV and newspaper dropped their criticism of Mubarak's old regime and shifted the blame for the violence on Islamists and foreign conspirators. Issandr al-Amrani, North Africa Project Director at International Crisis Group declared that "there's been a steady narrative to say 2011 wasn't a real revolution, the real revolution was June 30, 2013".  (Mubarak verdict due, but Egyptians' interest wanes by Associated Pess, The Washington Post, November 27, 2014) 

But Mubarak got off in any event. The New York Times reported today that

" An Egyptian court dropped all remaining charges against former President Hosni Mubarak on Saturday, raising the possibility that he could go free for the first time since being removed from office in the 2011 uprising that defined the Arab Spring revolt." (Kirkpatrick and Thomas, 11.29.2014 NYT) 

Most bizarrely, Mubarak was acquitted of corruption charges, which seemed to be a slam dunk. It makes one wonder. Here are two reasons why. First, the judiciary is widely rumored to be full of "feloul" Mubarak allies. Second, the government is currently run by a new military-backed strongman, President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi. Mubarak is from the military, so it is no surprise that they are taking care of business. 

This verdict seems to bode well for another not-very-well liked Egyptian President, Mohamed Morsi. 

A committee was appointed by Egypt's interim president Adly Mansour to investigate the violence after Morsi's ouster. The committee will present a final report divided into five parts, and it will cover 11 files. The most important part, entitled "Gatherings and sit-ins in public squares and roads in Egypt," will document events in support of Morsi during which several supporters were killed. Marawan announced: "The report will give a complete list of the names of the victims from the dispersals and where and how they were killed". He also announced that "the report tried to be as neutral as possible". (Committee to announce report on Egypt's post-Morsi violence on Wednesday by Gamal Essam El-Din, Ahram Online, November 24, 2014)

Given the Mubarak verdict, one can expect that impunity will be the order of the day, although you never know. 

Women may have been a major beneficiary of the Arab Spring, along with some release of restrictions on the press. 

In Egypt, more than 90 percent of women are estimated to have undergone female genital mutilation (FGM), although the practice, also known as "circumcision", has been penalized in 2008. Some still  still consider whether to circumcise their daughters or not, because without it she could be "sexually voracious", and this could be "dangerous for her". The tradition is practiced because "it is seen as needed for cleanliness or to prevent a girl's sexual desire from running out of control". In fact, a widely used Egyptian Arabic term for it translates as "purification". In southern Egypt, Manal Fawzy runs the Assiut Childhood and Development Organization, a UNICEF partner organization that "takes a community approach to getting people to abandon the practice". She and her colleagues go from village to village to talk to the residents, but also to religious leaders and doctors, encouraging the latters and the families to speak publically about their rejection of the tradition. (Egypt making slow progress on genital mutilation by Associated Press, The Washington Post, November 25, 2014)

Many thanks to my fabulous GA, Paola Cavallari, for doing much of the research that helps me stay on top of things.

WMB 

Parliamentary and Presidential Elections in Egypt: Part 1

Several steps lie ahead in order for the current military government in Egypt to turn power over to a civilian government. Among these steps are writing a new constitution, electing a parliament, and electing a new president, or prime Minister. A cautionary note-- The likelihood that Egypt will become a full fledged democracy in a year is fairly low. To use a mathematical term, democracy in Egypt in the immediate term is a low-probability event. Democracy watchers in Egypt would be well-advised to be patient-- very patient.

Indeed, as a point of comparison, Kenya, received its independence in 1963. The first truly competitive multi-party election in Kenya was held in 2002, resulting in the first Kenyan president who was truly freely and fairly elected by the Kenyan people. The next election, 2007, did not go so well, and degenerated into a bloodbath, with nearly 2000 dead, and thousands of internally displaced people. In a heartening development, the Kenyan people passed a progressive new Constitution in a free and fair election in August, 2010, giving succor to those who were worried that Kenya's fledgling democracy would not make it. The 2012 election will be a test of the strength of Kenya's emerging democracy. Forty eight years after Independence, Kenya is not yet a full-fledged democracy, rather, it remains a hybrid regime, with some authoritarian tendencies. That being said, Kenya is one of the freest countries in its vicinity. I provide this example to remind the Egypt observer that this is a long path Egypt has started down. Hopefully, they will attain full democracy in a year. My fingers are crossed that Egypt will be so blessed.

One debate that has raged in Egypt the entire spring has been the timing of elections.The military has committed to holding parliamentary elections, followed by a new constitution, and presidential elections. One problem with this schedule is: 1) it does not provide sufficient time for developing a new constitution, and 2) It seems to foreclose the possibility of a true parliamentary system with a prime minister, in favor of a "strong president" system.

A threat to the emergence of a full democracy in Egypt is the SCAF's reluctance to "renounce its role in managing the affairs of the country during this crucial time in Egypt's history." (Staff, "Egypt's Deputy PM resign amid protests," Al Jazeera, July 12, 2011). Indeed, the military is moving to protect an even expand its authority. Observers had been heartened that several parties had agreed to adopt a "declaration of basic principles," to govern the drafting of the Egyptian Constitution. The thinking was that this declaration would protect a civil state, and reign in the Islamists. (Author interview with Abdel Ghaffr Shokr). However, legal scholars working on the document now suggest that the military might use the declaration to spell out the military's role in the civilian government.

One worrying provision in this declaration of basic principles, is that it could potentially make the defense budget unavailable for public or parliamentary review. (David D. Kirkpatrick, "Egypt Military Aims to Cement Muscular Role in Government," New York Times, July 16, 2011) Given that the defense budget is a huge proportion of Egypt's current budget, this provision could be extremely problematic. (Author interview with Samer Soliman). If the military retains the right to intervene broadly in Egyptian politics, it would limit popular sovereignty, constraining the emerging Egyptian democracy.

Further, I worry about the wisdom of rushing the constitutional process. In general, constitutions take years to write. By sandwiching the constitutional drafting process in between parliamentary elections and presidential elections, the SCAF is de facto limiting the time available to deliberate on the provisions of the constitution. We saw hints of this kind of a rushed process in the military's rush to put the constitutional amendments to a referendum in a matter of weeks. After little public debate, and an accelerated process, the referendum went well enough. But it was then followed by a military decree of over 50 constitutional amendments with no public input whatsoever. This process is not really a process, and is not really a democratic process.

Steps should be put in place to ensure that the parliament has a strong role in the new constitution, both on paper, and in practice. The old parliament under Mubarak, dominated by the state sanctioned National Democratic Party, was little more than a rubber stamp. Indeed, a fact-finding judicial committee recently ruled that Safwat al-Sharif, the former speaker of the Shura, and other parliamentarians masterminded the "Camel Battle" on February 2, 2011, that left several protesters dead. (Staff, Egyptians demand post-revolution changes," Al Jazeera, July 15, 2011)

The conventional wisdom had been that parliamentary elections would be held in September. Nonetheless, this schedule seemed rushed, given that Ramadan ends on August 30th (more or less). In an interview with Abdel Ghaffr Shokr in late June, Shokr explained that given the multiple steps that are required to hold elections, September elections simply were not feasible. This analysis was confirmed when the SCAF said preparations for the vote would begin on September 30th, 2011. (AP, "Arab Spring hardens into Summer of Stalemates," The Washington Post, July 14, 2011). In many ways, this delayed schedule is good news, as it gives more time for civilian, non-Islamist, non-NDP political forces to prepare for the parliamentary vote.

Humor About African Leaders: Much Needed at this Point

This is a FORWARD from another list.While one can be old but young at heart... or young but old at heart...I noticed that Museveni is not on this list. Probably because, as he claims, he doesn't know when he was born!
Kefa
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WHY AFRICA IS 25 YEARS BEHIND THE DEVELOPED WORLD.....

AFRICAN LEADERS
Abdulai Wade - 83years
Hosni Mubarak ( Egypt ) - age 82
Robert Mugabe ( Zimbabwe ) - age 86
Hifikepunye Pohamba ( Namibia ) - age 74
Rupiah Banda ( Zambia ) - age 73
Mwai Kibaki ( Kenya ) - age 71
Ellen Johnson Sirleaf ( Liberia ) - age 75
Colonel Gaddafi ( Libya ) - age 68
Jacob Zuma ( South Africa ) - age 68
Bingu Wa Mtalika - age 76.
Average Age: === 75.6
Approximately 76 years
_____________________________
THE FIRST WORLD

Barrack Obama ( USA ) - age 48
David Cameron ( UK ) - age 43
Dimitri Medvedev ( Russia ) - age 45
Stephen Harper ( Canada ) - age 51
Julia Gillard ( Australia ) - age 49
Nicolas Sarkozy ( France ) - age 55
Luis Zapatero ( Spain ) - age 49
Jose Socrates ( Portugal ) - age 53
Angela Merkel ( Germany ) - age 56
Herman Van Rompuy ( Belgium ) - age 62
Average Age ===== 51.1 ~
Approximately 51 years
_______________________________
DIFFERENCE:---- 25 years
GUYS, HOW DO WE MOVE FORWARD WITH THIS OLD SQUAD...?..