Parliamentary and Presidential Elections in Egypt: Part 1

Several steps lie ahead in order for the current military government in Egypt to turn power over to a civilian government. Among these steps are writing a new constitution, electing a parliament, and electing a new president, or prime Minister. A cautionary note-- The likelihood that Egypt will become a full fledged democracy in a year is fairly low. To use a mathematical term, democracy in Egypt in the immediate term is a low-probability event. Democracy watchers in Egypt would be well-advised to be patient-- very patient.

Indeed, as a point of comparison, Kenya, received its independence in 1963. The first truly competitive multi-party election in Kenya was held in 2002, resulting in the first Kenyan president who was truly freely and fairly elected by the Kenyan people. The next election, 2007, did not go so well, and degenerated into a bloodbath, with nearly 2000 dead, and thousands of internally displaced people. In a heartening development, the Kenyan people passed a progressive new Constitution in a free and fair election in August, 2010, giving succor to those who were worried that Kenya's fledgling democracy would not make it. The 2012 election will be a test of the strength of Kenya's emerging democracy. Forty eight years after Independence, Kenya is not yet a full-fledged democracy, rather, it remains a hybrid regime, with some authoritarian tendencies. That being said, Kenya is one of the freest countries in its vicinity. I provide this example to remind the Egypt observer that this is a long path Egypt has started down. Hopefully, they will attain full democracy in a year. My fingers are crossed that Egypt will be so blessed.

One debate that has raged in Egypt the entire spring has been the timing of elections.The military has committed to holding parliamentary elections, followed by a new constitution, and presidential elections. One problem with this schedule is: 1) it does not provide sufficient time for developing a new constitution, and 2) It seems to foreclose the possibility of a true parliamentary system with a prime minister, in favor of a "strong president" system.

A threat to the emergence of a full democracy in Egypt is the SCAF's reluctance to "renounce its role in managing the affairs of the country during this crucial time in Egypt's history." (Staff, "Egypt's Deputy PM resign amid protests," Al Jazeera, July 12, 2011). Indeed, the military is moving to protect an even expand its authority. Observers had been heartened that several parties had agreed to adopt a "declaration of basic principles," to govern the drafting of the Egyptian Constitution. The thinking was that this declaration would protect a civil state, and reign in the Islamists. (Author interview with Abdel Ghaffr Shokr). However, legal scholars working on the document now suggest that the military might use the declaration to spell out the military's role in the civilian government.

One worrying provision in this declaration of basic principles, is that it could potentially make the defense budget unavailable for public or parliamentary review. (David D. Kirkpatrick, "Egypt Military Aims to Cement Muscular Role in Government," New York Times, July 16, 2011) Given that the defense budget is a huge proportion of Egypt's current budget, this provision could be extremely problematic. (Author interview with Samer Soliman). If the military retains the right to intervene broadly in Egyptian politics, it would limit popular sovereignty, constraining the emerging Egyptian democracy.

Further, I worry about the wisdom of rushing the constitutional process. In general, constitutions take years to write. By sandwiching the constitutional drafting process in between parliamentary elections and presidential elections, the SCAF is de facto limiting the time available to deliberate on the provisions of the constitution. We saw hints of this kind of a rushed process in the military's rush to put the constitutional amendments to a referendum in a matter of weeks. After little public debate, and an accelerated process, the referendum went well enough. But it was then followed by a military decree of over 50 constitutional amendments with no public input whatsoever. This process is not really a process, and is not really a democratic process.

Steps should be put in place to ensure that the parliament has a strong role in the new constitution, both on paper, and in practice. The old parliament under Mubarak, dominated by the state sanctioned National Democratic Party, was little more than a rubber stamp. Indeed, a fact-finding judicial committee recently ruled that Safwat al-Sharif, the former speaker of the Shura, and other parliamentarians masterminded the "Camel Battle" on February 2, 2011, that left several protesters dead. (Staff, Egyptians demand post-revolution changes," Al Jazeera, July 15, 2011)

The conventional wisdom had been that parliamentary elections would be held in September. Nonetheless, this schedule seemed rushed, given that Ramadan ends on August 30th (more or less). In an interview with Abdel Ghaffr Shokr in late June, Shokr explained that given the multiple steps that are required to hold elections, September elections simply were not feasible. This analysis was confirmed when the SCAF said preparations for the vote would begin on September 30th, 2011. (AP, "Arab Spring hardens into Summer of Stalemates," The Washington Post, July 14, 2011). In many ways, this delayed schedule is good news, as it gives more time for civilian, non-Islamist, non-NDP political forces to prepare for the parliamentary vote.

Musings Regarding the "Revolution Cabinet"

The journey to democracy is long, and often lonely. Photo credit AFP. 

 
Dear readers

It is a lot, right? It is hard to follow Yemen, Syria, Bahrain, Jordan, Palestine and Morocco. Hats off to Issandr Amrani of The Arabist, who does an amazing job of staying on top of it all, and is world famous as a result. Thanks to Issandr for pushing me to being more precise in my blogservations,

Since I am an Africanist, with a focus on democratization, I shall confine my observations to Egypt, Libya, and Sudan.  So, back to work. Okay, what is going on?

As the Washington Post, and Issandr Al Imrani have pointed out, Egypt is in a bit of a "holding pattern," or a political stalemate at the moment as the SCAF attempts to maintain control, and the protesters attempt to push Egypt towards democracy. (AP Wire, "Arab Spring hardens into Summer of Stalemates as challenge of changing regimes becomes clearer," Washington Post, July 14, 2011; Issandr El Amrani, "Why the success of the 25 January revolution resonates beyond Egypt, Al Masry Al Youm, July 7, 2011). To its credit, Egypt is further along then most of its neighbors. The protesters seem clear that they want democracy.

On one of the days of the protest, a popular chant was "bring down the military junta." The response of the military was that protesters should be careful not to "[harm] national interests." (Washington Post, "Summer of Stalemates; Al Jazeera, "Deputy PM resigns,") One of the issues in Egypt is whether the SCAF, the military council currently ruling Egypt, is actually going to step down and hand over power to a civilian government. As my colleague, Dr. Jennifer Bremer--Department Chair of the Public Policy and Administration Department at AUC-- has pointed out, the SCAF is going to try to negotiate a safe exit for themselves. If they cannot negotiate a safe exit, she argues, they are not going to go anywhere.
 
Today the New York Times and Al Jazeera report that Egypt will be swearing in a new cabinet, known as the "Revolution Cabinet." The new ministers, "most of whom are relative newcomers," (Staff,"Egypt's New Cabinet to be Sworn In," Al Jazeera, July 18, 2011) will take the oath of office in front of Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi. At least 15 ministers, or more than half the cabinet are being replaced. Interior minister Mansour el-Essawy, who is in charge of the police, is expected to remain.Essam Sharaf, Egypt's current Prime Minister, has accepted the resignation of his deputy, Yehia el-Gamal. Gamal had previously offered his resignation, but it had been rejected by the SCAF. (Staff, "Egypt's Deputy PM resigns amid protests," Al Jazeera, July 12, 2011).

This change comes on the heels of an ongoing protest in Tahrir that has lasted since July 8, until today, July 18, 2011. The sit in has been going on for over a week now.  In addition to protests in Cairo, there are also protests and sit ins in Suez and Alexandria. Their demands include the resignation of the Interior Minister, a purge of Mubarak loyalists from the government bureaucracy, and a plan to overcome economic issues. (Al Jazeera, "Egypt's Deputy PM resigns"). Other key demands include an end to military trials of civilians and speedy trials of former regime officials. (Staff, "Egyptians demand post-revolution changes," Al Jazeera, July 15, 2011) As one protester--Tarek Geddawy--put it, "We have a feeling the regime is still there,somehow." (Anthony Shadid, "Not Satisfied, Protesters Return to Tahrir Square," New York Times, July 12, 2011.)

These protesters have staying power! You have to realize that it is above 90 degrees in Cairo, or at least 30 degrees centigrade out there at the Square, and that aside from the heat, the summer sun itself is blinding. These people mean business. Somebody bring them a drink of ice water!

It is a step forward  that there are new ministers. That means that the SCAF are listening to the people. However, it would be good to have institutions and organizations in place, so that the people could communicate their demands to the government and get a response in a manner other than staying outside for days at a time.

Since Field Marshal Tantawi is one of the key people that the protesters want out, this reshuffle strikes me as a "cosmetic repair." To use an analogy, the Revolution Cabinet is like putting a band-aid on a cancerous wound. If there is to be a true "Revolution," the old system has to be torn out by the roots. To see a Revolution, key aspects of the old government must change, and Tantawi, who is closely affiliated with Mubarak, is one of them. Tantawi was defense minister under Mubarak for two decades.  For a true Revolution to occur, the old government of Mubarak must be dissolved, torn down, restructured and rebuilt, not merely shuffled around or shaken up.

Please see my old post about Is it really a Revolution?

The idea of democracy emerges from the Enlightenment period. The definition of democracy is contested, and not unified.  I do not purport to lay it out in a blog post.  However, the SCAF having broad powers, which they are currently asking for, would likely lead to a regime more hybrid, than democratic. If people can live with some kind of a democratic transition, short of a Revolution, then the new government must contain most of  the following elements.

• A guarantee of basic Human Rights to every individual person vis-à-vis the state and its authorities as well as vis-à-vis any social groups (especially religious institutions) and vis-à-vis other persons.
• Freedom of opinion, speech, press and the mass media
• Religious liberty
• Free and Fair elections
• General and equal right to vote (one person, one vote)
• A popularly elected representative body which can represent the peoples' interests.  The old Parliament under Mubarak did not meet this test, because it had no power.

This is not an easy standard to attain. In Africa, Ghana and South Africa stand out as true democracies. Of the countries I study , Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania are all hybrid regimes with some elements of authoritarianism and some elements of democracy. Rwanda  is closer to an authoritarian regime.

I am going to fine tune these ideas in a later post.


WMB

Musical Interlude for an Egypt in Transition: Chchchchanges

Changes
David Bowie

I still don't know what I was waiting for
And my time was running wild
A million dead-end streets
Every time I thought I'd got it made
It seemed the taste was not so sweet
So I turned myself to face me
But I've never caught a glimpse
Of how the others must see the faker
I'm much too fast to take that test

Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Don't want to be a richer man
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Just gonna have to be a different man
Time may change me
But I can't trace time

I watch the ripples change their size
But never leave the stream
Of warm impermanence and
So the days float through my eyes
But still the days seem the same
And these children that you spit on
As they try to change their worlds
Are immune to your consultations
They're quite aware of what they're going through

Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Don't tell t hem to grow up and out of it
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Where's your shame
You've left us up to our necks in it
Time may change me
But you can't trace time

Strange fascination, fascinating me
Changes are taking the pace I'm going through

Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Oh, look out you rock 'n rollers
Ch-ch-ch-ch-Changes
(Turn and face the strain)
Ch-ch-Changes
Pretty soon you're gonna get a little older
Time may change me
But I can't trace time
I said that time may change me
But I can't trace time