Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Status of women representatives in second round

Dear readers

When I started this project of tracking what parties were running what women, I did not think it would be that useful. I felt like I was spinning my wheels and wasting time to satisfy my own personal curiosity. Several hours in, I just could not stop myself.  But now, the hard work is paying off. See my post here Which Egyptian Parties Represent Women?

My amazing research assistant Heba Galal and I have translated the electoral lists of various parties, which allows us to evaluate the chances that women will be elected. Our first cut was to see which parties had women in the top half of their lists. i.e. if they are running 8 people on the list, do they women in slots 1-4. If they are running 12 people on the list, do they have women in slots 1-6, and so forth.  A second cut is to see how many women total the parties are running. That may tell you something about the overall attitude of women in the party.

No women have been elected from the single winner system. I repeat, not one single woman has won as an independent.

In a counterintuitive result, there may be some women from the lists, and they are almost absolutely certain to be from the Muslim Brotherhood affiliated Freedom and Justice party. The FJP did so well in these elections, that in many locations, they got down to number 4 on their list, which means some women will be elected. It is also possible that women could be elected from Al Wafd. Their lists are not in good shape though, which makes it very difficult to analyze them, but I will try.


The People's Assembly Elections are being run in the following order.

Stage 1:Cairo, Fayoum, Port Said, Damietta, Alexandria, Kafr el-Sheikh, Assiut, Luxor, Red Sea
Stage 2:Giza, Beni Suef, Menoufiya, Sharqiya, Ismailia, Suez, Beheira, Sohag, Aswan
Stage 3:Minya, Qalubiya, Gharbiya, Dakhaliya, North Sinai, South Sinai, Marsa Matruh, Qena, New Valley

  • El Adl seems to have a fairly high number of women on their lists, in my opinion. They are running 24 women out of 13 lists. As many as 8 women are near the top of the lists.
  • The Muslim Brotherhood seems to have slightly more than the bare minimum of women on their lists. They are running 38 women out of 37 lists analyzed. Two women are near top of the lists. (9 lists still need to be analyzed.)
  • It is rumored that some of the women on Al Nour's list are fakes, and are just the mothers or the sisters of party members, to meet the legal requirement. All women on the Al Nour list are on the bottom two slots.
  • The Egyptian Bloc: On 42 lists, they have 43 women. 9 women are at the top of their lists.
  • The published lists by Al Wafd are not in good shape. Accordingly, we are still analyzing them as quickly as possible. Women from Al Wafd might make it if they are ranked 1 or 2.
Here is a preliminary analysis of where women have a chance. A more fine grained analysis will follow.

(using information from their official website)
People's Assembly

6. Giza, the second list. One woman, Azza Mohamed Ibrahim Elgref, Rank 4 out of 10 candidates.
The FJP won 4 Seats on Giza list 2.
11. Dakhalia, the initial list. One woman, Siham Abdel-Latif Jamal, Rank 2 out of 8.
24. Qalubiya, the initial list, one woman, Huda Abdullah Abul Qadr, rank 4 out of 4.
25. Qalubiya, the second list, one woman, Hoda Abdel-Rahman Mohammed Anwar, Rank 3 out of 8.
27. New Valley, one woman, Mervat Said Abdo, Rank 4 out of 4.
30. South Sinai, one woman, Amira Abdel Hamid Taha, rank 4 out of 4.
31. Damietta, two women, Fakry Adham Abdel Razak, Etmaad Mohamed Zagloul, rank 3 and 5 out of 8.FJP won 3 seats on the first Damietta list.
34. North Sinai, one woman, Inas Mustafa Hamdan, rank 4 of 4.
35. Qena, one woman, Suhair Badri, rank 4 of 4.

Al Wafd 
(using information from
People's Assembly

1. Aswan, Waheda Shakely, ranked 1 out of 12, (this list seems flawed because it has more than 12 people on it.)
2. Giza, Maha Ahmed Omar Kashif, ranked 1 out of 12 (again, this list seems flawed because it has too many people on it)
3. Cairo, Wasaf Ali Ali, ranked 1 out of 12. (flawed list)
4. Helwan, Sherin Mohammad Hatata, ranked  2 out of 12 (flawed list)
5. Red Sea Governorate, Aza Abd El Fattah Ahmed 1 out of 12. (5 women total on this list)

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