Mubarak's Rise and Fall

They say that if you are going to commit a crime, you should commit a big one, like the Savings and Loan scandal, or the Wall Street Credit default swap debacle, or in the case of former Egyptian President Mubarak, perhaps, loot a country for a generation. 

In the run up to the verdict, the main response of Egyptians was a big yawn. 

The Washington Post reported that  the "trial of the century" for Egypt has largely dropped from people's attention, partly because of its length, and partly because of the massive protests that began in June 2013, during the retrial. After the protests against the domination of Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood that brought to his ouster, TV and newspaper dropped their criticism of Mubarak's old regime and shifted the blame for the violence on Islamists and foreign conspirators. Issandr al-Amrani, North Africa Project Director at International Crisis Group declared that "there's been a steady narrative to say 2011 wasn't a real revolution, the real revolution was June 30, 2013".  (Mubarak verdict due, but Egyptians' interest wanes by Associated Pess, The Washington Post, November 27, 2014) 

But Mubarak got off in any event. The New York Times reported today that

" An Egyptian court dropped all remaining charges against former President Hosni Mubarak on Saturday, raising the possibility that he could go free for the first time since being removed from office in the 2011 uprising that defined the Arab Spring revolt." (Kirkpatrick and Thomas, 11.29.2014 NYT) 

Most bizarrely, Mubarak was acquitted of corruption charges, which seemed to be a slam dunk. It makes one wonder. Here are two reasons why. First, the judiciary is widely rumored to be full of "feloul" Mubarak allies. Second, the government is currently run by a new military-backed strongman, President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi. Mubarak is from the military, so it is no surprise that they are taking care of business. 

This verdict seems to bode well for another not-very-well liked Egyptian President, Mohamed Morsi. 

A committee was appointed by Egypt's interim president Adly Mansour to investigate the violence after Morsi's ouster. The committee will present a final report divided into five parts, and it will cover 11 files. The most important part, entitled "Gatherings and sit-ins in public squares and roads in Egypt," will document events in support of Morsi during which several supporters were killed. Marawan announced: "The report will give a complete list of the names of the victims from the dispersals and where and how they were killed". He also announced that "the report tried to be as neutral as possible". (Committee to announce report on Egypt's post-Morsi violence on Wednesday by Gamal Essam El-Din, Ahram Online, November 24, 2014)

Given the Mubarak verdict, one can expect that impunity will be the order of the day, although you never know. 

Women may have been a major beneficiary of the Arab Spring, along with some release of restrictions on the press. 

In Egypt, more than 90 percent of women are estimated to have undergone female genital mutilation (FGM), although the practice, also known as "circumcision", has been penalized in 2008. Some still  still consider whether to circumcise their daughters or not, because without it she could be "sexually voracious", and this could be "dangerous for her". The tradition is practiced because "it is seen as needed for cleanliness or to prevent a girl's sexual desire from running out of control". In fact, a widely used Egyptian Arabic term for it translates as "purification". In southern Egypt, Manal Fawzy runs the Assiut Childhood and Development Organization, a UNICEF partner organization that "takes a community approach to getting people to abandon the practice". She and her colleagues go from village to village to talk to the residents, but also to religious leaders and doctors, encouraging the latters and the families to speak publically about their rejection of the tradition. (Egypt making slow progress on genital mutilation by Associated Press, The Washington Post, November 25, 2014)

Many thanks to my fabulous GA, Paola Cavallari, for doing much of the research that helps me stay on top of things.

WMB 

The Egypt Independent Says Farewell in a blaze of Glory

Coming up on about a week now, it was announced throughout the world that Egypt’s main independent English language news source, Egypt Independent, was to stop publication. 

This loss is particularly painful for me. I wrote several editorials for the Egypt Independent, and it was an important location for me both physically and intellectually during the Revolution and beyond. I am heartbroken .. . . 

American news outlets such as New York Times and the Wallstreet Journal spoke of the media outlet positively, citing that as it’s name suggested, was the country’s only true independent voice that reflected the expression of the revolutionary voices (Stack, 2013). In the last four years, Stack explains, the staff chronicled the waning days of the Mubarak regime, the outbreak of revolution in their own country and across the Arab world, military rule and most recently the administration of the first democratically elected Islamist leader of Egypt, Mohamed Morsi. The staff, which has been notably critical of the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government, believes that it was shut down by the self-censorship of its sister paper Al-Masry Al-Youm (Habib, 2013). Investors of the paper and the sister company’s chairman, Abdel Moneim, cited financial difficulties for the reason of the closure and has not commented about the accusations that the closure was political. The Muslim Brotherhood also declined to comment on the situation (Habib, 2013). Egypt Independent is the second independent English-language publication to shut down in Egypt in the past year as The Daily News Egypt abruptly closed after a seven year run when investors also claimed unbearable financial losses (Stack, 2013).

On April 23, 2013 the latest edition of the paper, in fact it’s 50^th edition, was sent to the presses and Al-Marsy Al-Youm “pulled the plug”, which the outlets editor in chief Lina Attalah stated she believed it was due to the editions’ scathing critiques of not just the government, but criticism of the parent company’s management and self-censorship (Habib, 2013).  Since President Morsi has taken office, the prosecutor general has summoned several journalist on charges of “insulting” the president. The administration is accused of intimidating reporters and inciting violence against them (Habib, 2013). This is not the first major incident of censorship or confrontation between the two media companies. In late 2011, Egypt Independent then referred to as- “Al-Marsy Al-Youm English Edition” broke partially away from its then-parent company as its content was “squashed” for being too critical of the government. During this confrontation, Egypt Independent announced the break and expressed they felt the revolution was incomplete and the Muslim Brotherhood’s rule was increasingly heavy handed. Supporters of the newspaper expressed their dismay of the recent closing. “After the revolution there was a flood of people who expressed what they wanted…but we’re beginning to see that this change wasn’t real and that we were fooled,” said Habiba Effat, 22 year old from Cairo (Habib, 2013).  

In a short statement called “Egypt Independent 2009-2013” the news outlet explained that they were not going down without a fight and pushed their last issue online and in PDF format.  The explained that this issue continued their standards of critical journalism, discussing issues that reflected the county’s challenges as well as those facing Egyptian media.

“Four years after the birth of Egypt Independent, the management of Al-Masry Media Corporation has informed our editorial team that our print and online news operation is being shut down. Because we owe it to our readers, we decided to put together a closing edition, which would have been available on 25 April, to explain the conditions under which a strong voice of independent and progressive journalism in Egypt is being terminated. The management, however, withheld the printing of this edition. While the print house received the final proofs on 23 April, management ordered a last-minute stoppage after scrutinizing the issue’s content. In keeping with our practice of critical journalism, we use our final issue to reflect on the political and economic challenges facing Egyptian media, including in our own institution” (Egypt Independent, 2013)

The articles in the last edition were understandably full of anger but also reflection. The staff spoke about the vision of the paper that denoted a commitment to professionalism and civil rights. They explained they were trying to be more than a “mouth-piece” for the state and the political parties (Stack, 2013). Attalah and other Egypt Independent discussed the closure via social media. Attalah that she considered one of the key questions for professional journalists to be, “How do we become active mediators as opposed to silent vehicles of information?” (Stack, 2013). Attalah promised that her staff would continue their work in some new form and that their leaders had not seen the last of them.

More news on the shutdown

The Death of Egypt Independent  

Goodbye Al Mary Al Youm

Egypt Independent's 50th and Final Edition

Public Mourns Loss of Egypt Independent

                        


Frustration with Morsy builds

Protest in front of Presidential Palace, February15, 2013

This week protests continued in Egypt.  February 11^th marked the second anniversary of the  end of the Egyptian Revolution, the 18-day uprising that overthrew Mubarak. Since protests started again in late January, 2013 dozens have been killed and hundreds injured. There have been accusations of police brutality and other abuses by security forces in Egypt. While avoiding direct criticism of Morsy, representatives from the United States expressed concern about the climate and stated that people’s economic and political concerns should be addressed. Further, the US Embassy suggested  that the Egyptian Government needs to reach out widely to opposition to find a common ground. Reflecting the fear of backlash, it was reported this week that dozens of police officers have rallied outside the local security administration headquarters demanding to stop being used as a tool for political oppression in the country’s ongoing turmoil.

Many in Egypt are frustrated with Morsy and the Muslim Brotherhood.  The Muslim Brotherhood is increasingly accused of monopolizing power. The economy has deteriorated, conservative Islamists are obstructing progress in the country, there are troubling concerns with the new constitution, and security forces continue to be heavy handed. “Of course I feel disappointed. Every day is getting worse,” said a citizen. Morsi and his supporters have dismissed the opposition’s claims that he is the same as Mubarak and accused them of trying to “topple a democratically elected president.” Bouts of protests and uprising started in December when Egyptians perceived some of Morsy’s actions, as power grabbing. Since December, Morsy’s approval ratings have continuously declined and are currently the lowest it has been since he’s been in office. 

~WMB

Thanks to my wonderful GA, Jillian Underwood!

Happy Birthday to a More Democratic, if not Revolutionary Egypt

Destroyed wall in Qasr al Aini street

 
Today marks the second anniversary of the Egyptian Revolution. January 25, 2011 marks the day when the Egyptian Revolution really began.  Protesters took to the streets demanding "bread, freedom, and social justice." The protests would last 18 days, ending with the fall of former President Hosni Mubarak.

Where is the country of Egypt now? Some things in Egypt are much improved. The press is much freer. Women have used the opening up of discourse to raise some important issues that require discussion, such as the role of women in Egyptian politics, and the high rate of sexual violence against women in their country. Issues of inequality have been pushed to the fore, and there are signs of democracy. A parliament was elected, if only temporarily, and a president was also elected. These are promising improvements.


This has been a violent birthday for Egypt. There were calls for major protests in Upper Egypt, Nile Delta and the North Coast, including the governorates of Aswan, Qena, the Red Sea, Assiut, Minya, Gharbiya, Kafr al-Sheikh, Damietta, Daqahlia, Suez and Alexandria, and of course, Cairo. Protestors are chanting "Bread, Freedom, and the President lost legitimacy." Others are waving signs saying the Revolution continues. Scores are dead. 

There are tensions between the ruling Muslim Brotherhood and more liberal and revolutionary groups. Clashes have erupted today in Suez and Alexandria. The Muslim Brotherhood has not participated in protests, organizing charitable activities in major cities instead. Many protesters are chanting slogans against President Mohamed Morsy, the Department of Interior, and the Muslim Brotherhood.

The National Salvation Front, led by Mohamed El Baradei, called for protests targeting the domination of Egyptian politics by the Muslim Brotherhood. Police have been firing tear gas on protesters. Hamdeen Sebahi and Khaled Ali also participated in the marches, along with other leftist leaders, and Abdel Fotouh.

Most of the media is going to focus on the challenges facing Egypt now, as well they should. I have said it before, and I will say it again, massive social change, such as the change Egypt is currently undergoing, is a time-consuming process. The French Revolution lasted at least 10 years, from 1789-to 1799. France required two more revolutions 1830 and 1848 before the modern country we now know took shape. Indeed, conservatively estimated, the American Civil Rights Movement took from 1955-1968, or thirteen years. Social upheaval is a time consuming process. A Luta Continua.

A Leader Worth Mourning: Samer Soliman (1968-2012)

As we prepare for Christmas, we celebrate a season of illumination, yet we also mourn many tragedies across the globe. This is appropriate, as Christmas is a time of endings as well as beginnings, and more subtly perhaps, it is also a continuation. The winter solstice is the shortest day of the year. It therefore represents an end as well as a beginning. The birth of Christ, over two thousand years ago represented the beginning of a new world religion, a continuation of revered Abrahamic beliefs, as well as the incorporation of ancient pagan, animist, and pharaonic traditions.

On this day, as we prepare for the 2013th celebration of the prophet whom we call Christ, I want to celebrate the life of one of the most influential politicians, activists, and scholars I have ever met: Dr. Samer Soliman. As I mourn his leaving this planet earth, I also am mourning the passage of a an ill-thought out, undemocratic constitution by the people of Egypt. I pray earnestly for the continuation of the Egyptian democratic opposition on this holy night. I ask all the people of Egypt, and of the world, to keep working to ensure that the promise of the Egyptian Revolution is fulfilled.

Samer would have wanted me to feel all of these feelings. Samer died after a battle with terminal cancer at the age of 44.  He was a Coptic Christian, who was nonetheless a fundamentally secular person. He was a journalist, and a brilliant scholar who wrote The Autumn of Dictatorship: Fiscal Crisis and Political Change in Egypt under Mubarak. He was a Professor of Political Economy at the American University in Cairo, and a founding member of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party. Ahram Online bids writer, activist Samer Soliman farewell.

Yet these dry facts, as impressive as they are, do not do justice to Samer's life. I do not have space to eulogize his life as a devoted spouse and family man to his beautiful wife Mary Shenoda. Nor is there room to discuss his stature as a professor at the American University in Cairo. Rather, I will focus on his work as an activist and a politician, since Egypt is facing a political crisis larger than perhaps any since the January 25th revolution itself. Farewell Samer Soliman (Egypt Independent)

Samer had a vision for the new Egypt.  Samer came from a political family, reared in Egypt's long tradition of secularism, which made Cairo the jewel of North Africa in the 1950s and early 1960s. He drew on these resources when he helped found the Social Democratic Party of Egypt shortly after the January 25th Revolution. I arrived in Cairo on January 25th, 2011, the first day of the revolution. While I tried to understand what was going on in my new home, Samer was on the barricades with students, farmers and workers, fighting valiantly to usher Egypt into a new era of democracy and human rights. He had long been involved in Egypt's historically strong labor movement. He reached out to the European social democratic parties, forged in Europe's struggle for democracy and labor rights in the 1920s, and revived after World War II in the 1950s.

Although Western news sources tend to focus on the Muslim Brotherhood, the Social Democratic Party, one of the few genuinely new post-revolutionary parties to emerge in Egypt, has made a huge mark in this time frame. In coalition with the Free Egyptians and Tagamoo, the SDP formed the Egyptian Bloc ("Kotla). In the new (now dissolved) parliament, the Bloc made an impressive showing for such a new party, winning 7 percent of the available seats. The Kotla became one of the top five parties, and the major party representing women, secularists, democrats, Nubians, bedouins, Copts, human rights advocates, and so many other underrepresented yet crucial segments of Egyptian society.

Inspired by Samer and the SDP, I decided that I needed to document the emergence of Egypt's emerging opposition. I spent countless hours speaking to Samer and other SDP members learning about this new political forces.  Samer spoke to my leadership class on the budget challenges facing the new Egyptian government. He kept the fire burning bright that Egypt could be a democratic country that had room for all constituents, and all citizens. He championed human rights, civil rights, democracy, and social justice.

What would Samer think of the recent constitutional referendum? He would be dissappointed, I am sure, perhaps even frustrated and angry, but he would tell us not to give up. Samer received his doctorate in political science from the prestigious Science Po in Paris, France. As an intellectual and a scholar, he would remind us that the French Revolution spanned decades. He would tell us that like our French compatriots centuries before, we must keep moving forward, clear in our objectives, inspired by the ideals of the Enlightenment.

I like to think that he would be cheered that the April 6 Movement is planning a march on the presidential palace to oppose this constitution that does not truly represent the Egyptian people. He would applaud the fact that after nearly a year of disunity, the Egyptian opposition has finally been galvanized. Indeed, the National Salvation Front, composed of the Constitution Party, Wafd, the Social Democratic Party, the popular current party, and the National Association for Change have stated that they will run for parliament on one list.

I believe that tonight, Samer looks down on us from Heaven. I pray that we remember the message of his life, and all take steps to ensure that his vision becomes a reality. I pray that the Egyptian opposition seizes the moment to unite, and move the revolution, and Egypt's democracy forward.

Merry Christmas Samer. Egypt has lost a great leader, a lion of a man. Like the Lion of Judah, we hear your call. May we reach the mountaintop that you pointed us toward. May the peace of Christ be with you, always.

Your comrade in arms, Warigia

Vote No on the Egyptian Constitution

Violent clashes at the Presidential Palace, December 5, 2012. Photo Credit Al Masry Al Youm

A constitutional referendum is scheduled for December 15, 2012 (this Saturday) and December 22, 2012. The National Salvation Front is asking supporters to vote NO.

Egyptian president Mohamed Morsy issued a law yesterday dividing the constitutional referendum into two stages. Ten governorates will vote in the first stage on 15 December: Cairo, Alexandria, Aswan, Assiut, Daqahlia, Gharbiya, Sharqiya, Sohag, South Sinai and North Sinai. The remaining governorates will vote on December 22d, 2012. These governorates include Giza, Qena, Beheira, Beni Suef, Damietta, Ismailia, Kafr al-Sheikh, Matrouh, Monufiya, New Valley, Port Said, Qalyubiya, Red Sea, Suez and Luxor.

The leader of the National Salvation Front is leftist politician Hamdeen Sabbahi. They want the referendum to take place over a single day. They have also asked for full judicial supervision, and have called for domestic, international, and NGO teams to supervise the vote. National Salvation Front Urges No Vote on the Egyptian Constitution (Egypt Independent)

Most judges have refused to supervise the vote in protest of Morsy's recent power grab. Egyptian expatriates began voting today, Wednesday, December 12, 2012. Morsy Issues Law Staggering Referendum Vote (Egypt Independent)

Meanwhile, the Egyptian Street remains outraged at Morsy's efforts to give himself more power. According to Nathan Brown, a professor at George Washington University, Morsy has paced all of his actions, and those of the constitutional assembly outside of judicial review. He has made it impossible to disband the constitutional assembly, and has effectively assumed legislative powers. Brown argues that the constituent assembly (or constitutional assembly) is dominated by Islamists. Morsy has reduced the pressure for the CA to reach a consensus document, and he is instead allowing the predominantly Islamist CA to force their version on the Egyptian opposition. As Egypt's Constitution Waits in Limbo, Morsy Grabs More Power (Carnegie Endowment)

Human Rights Watch states that the draft constitution provides for basic protections against arbitrary dentention and torture and for some economic rights, but fails to end military trials of civilians or protect freedom of expression and religion. One positive development is that the final draft does not require strict adherence to sharia with regard to women's rights (former article 68 has been removed). However, sex or gender is not a grounds for prohibiting discrimination in the new draft, and potentially interferes with women's choices about work and family. Egypt: New Constitution Mixed on Support of Rights (Human Rights Watch)

Meanwhile, thousands of demonstrators gathered in Alexandria yesterday to reject the referendum on the new constitution in front of the Haqaniyq Court. Further, thousands of opposition members marched from Hijaz Square in Heliopolist to the presidential palace last night to reject the referendum. More marches are scheduled beginning today. Opposition Protesters March Again (Egypt Independent)

The Morsi Maneuver Part 2: Tahrir revolts against massive power grab

Marchers arrive in Tahrir to protest the Constitution

Dear readers, 

I have been watching the unfolding events in the past days with some trepidation, but not that much surprise. 

Morsi  has issued a sweeping decree on November 22, 2012 expanding his powers.  Opponents are furious, arguing that his declaration has made all his decisions immune to judicial review and banned the courts from dissolving the upper house of parliament and an assembly writing the new constitution, both of which are dominated by Islamists. The decree also gave Morsi sweeping authority to stop any ‘‘threats’’ to the revolution, public order or state institutions. The powers would last until the constitution is approved and parliamentary elections are held, not likely before spring 2013.  Egyptians Protest Morsi (Boston Globe)

His supporters argue that he is protecting the Revolution  Morsi has split Egypt down the middle (BBC)   According to the BBC, his supporters state that he merely took unchecked power away from the judiciary - which is still full of personalities from the Mubarak era - until the constitution is done and there are systems in place to allow the country to move forward.

Of course, when Morsi was elected, many people feared that exactly such a power grab would happen. Morsi is a complicated character. On the one hand, he was educated in America, and even taught at Cal State Northridge and is quite learned. On the other hand, he was a member of the Guidance Office of the Muslim Brotherhood before that organization became legal after the Revolution.  Times Interview with Mohamed Morsi. Unfortunately, his rhetoric, that he wants a civil, constitutional state, is not in line with his current actions.

The crazy thing is that it is not even Friday, and all hell has broken out in Tahrir. The most astute analysis I have heard comes from my old boss at AUC Dr. J--- B----. She says that 

"At this point, almost any scenario could be built. Morsi may realize he has to prove himself and show the courage to confront his own side and rebalance the constituent assembly, in which case he could pull if off if he demands unanimity or a super-majority on every provision, to force them to reach consensus or take it out. 

Conversely, the MB could militarize and we could have green shirts jack-stepping around Tahrir. 

Or we could have massive unrest and economic collapse.

Or the military could come back if things get dicey. 

He has really painted himself into a corner. We'll have to wait and see if he knows something we don't -- about the Gaza situation or the IMF, or whatever -- but he risks having all hell break loose if there are any more unpleasant surprises.  Word is MB HQs in 7 governorates all over the country were burnt.  One of the students also told me that the police and the army were shooting at each other at the head of Road 90 last week."

My analysis is that if Morsi knows something we do not, he needs to convey it to the left, to regain their trust. He has shown strength and statesmanlike behavior toward the conflict in Gaza,  Talks begin in Cairo after Gaza Cease Fire (NYT) and in relations with Iran, but his inability to manage the domestic front in his own country could neutralize Egypt's effectiveness as a foreign affairs powerhouse.   

Most worrisome is Morsi's attempt to maintain the work of the Constituent Assembly. As I have noted in previous posts, from day one, the Constituent Assembly has been heavily Islamist. With only 7 women on the Assembly to begin with, the Assembly clearly did not represent the interests of a majority of Egyptians. I noted my discomfort with the opposition parties and the Christian parties pulling out. Strategically, they should have stayed in and fought for a better CA. Nonetheless, if Morsi has his way, the current CA, which is even more Islamist now than when it was initially convened, will be in charge of a new constitution that certainly does not reflect the secular, mult-religious, modern nation of the Egypt we know and love. 

This blog is called Democratizing the New Egypt.  Morsi's behavior is not democratic, and is made even worse by the fact that there is no parliament currently sitting. It is true that the judiciary needs reform, and feloul in the judiciary need to be routed, but concentrating all of the nation's power in the executive is not the correct tactic. 

There is a silver lining to all of this: my beloved secular opposition is getting its second wind. As reported by the Egypt Independent, 

For almost two years, civil and secular groups were constantly blamed for being disunited and unorganized, paving the way for Islamists to rise to power after Hosni Mubarak’s ouster.

That changed this week as opposition leaders, former presidential candidates, secular liberal and leftist parties, and even some figures previously labeled as feloul — or remnants of the former regime — united against President Mohamed Morsy’s constitutional declaration, through which he claimed sweeping powers for himself, and formed the National Salvation Front.  Civil Groups Pounce Into Public Space (EI)

As one protester quoted by the BBC (article above) pointed out, “It's unfortunate that my demands are still same - bread, freedom and social justice. If Morsi doesn't get it, well, we have seen this movie before and all know where this is going to end.”

Credits: Huge thanks to my awesome graduate assistant Jillian Underwood for assisting with research and keeping me organized!

Anniversary of Maspero, and other thoughts

Dear readers

I think we should just commemorate the anniversary of the Maspero massacre on October 9, 2011. It was a very stressful and emotional time in my life, and the life of my colleagues. It really made me pay attention to the discrimination faced by Christians, and Bahai in Egypt. What was particularly eerie about the Maspero Massacre was how the state run press tried to pretend that a) it had not attacked the protesters, and b) the protesters were violent terrorists who had attacked the army.

The Maspero episode also made me worry about the fate of any minority group, Bedouin, Nubian, or women, who want to make a peaceful point in the face of a violent state. This is particularly a matter of concern, because Syria has devolved into a bloody civil war. Egypt's revolution was supposed to lead to a brighter future.

My colleague Abdel Rahman has written a few posts worth reading that I would like to share with you

As my brother Abu says, "Meet the old state, same as the new state." We need to keep our eyes on the prize and hold Morsi accountable. We need to keep fighting to finish this revolution.

Amnesty reports on persistent violence

Maspero Massacre, a Year on from the terrible turning point

The Morsi Maneuver

~WMB

Free Speech Hangs in the Balance in Egypt

Islam Afifi, editor in chief of Al Dostour, released.

Dear readers

I am sure many of you have been following the recent uproar regarding the detention of journalists who have been critical of Mohammed Morsi and the Freedom and Justice Party.

The United States has issued a statement that they are "very concerned" (strong words in diplomatic speak) about the state of media freedom in Egypt. The Egyptian government recently detained Al Dostour's Editor, Islam Afifi, for spreading false news and spreading disorder. Tawfiq Okasha, host of a TV talk show, will go on trial on September 1 for being critical of Mohammed Morsy. His television channel has been stopped from broadcasting. Further, Khaled Hanafy, managing editor of the Al Fajr newspaper was summoned for questioning on charges of defaming the Supreme Guide of the Muslim Brotherhood.

After withering internal and international criticism, in a quick turnaround,  Afifi was released from custody today. Morsy also passed a law (note that there is STILL no parliament in Egypt) disallowing custodial detention for those arrested on publishing related offenses.

I have been concerned about the state of media freedom in Egypt for some time. Although it is promising that Morsy has released Afifi, it is not enough. More safeguards for a free press are needed.

Here is an article I wrote on this exact topic in March 2011.  Although SCAF is no longer in power, these issues remain pressing.

Protecting Freedom of Information in Egypt

Here are some more related articles.

US concerned about media freedom in Egypt

Under New Leadership, Media Face Old Oppressive Policies

~WMB

Reacting to the Swearing in of Morsy as Egypt's President

A Morsy supporter prays on Egyptian flag after presidential announcement.

 

June 24, 2012. Photo Credit Mohamed Hesham

Dear readers

Mohamed Morsy is now officially Egypt's president. He does not have very many powers, to be sure. Most of the power in the country is still in the hand's of the Supreme Council of Armed Forces, aka the military junta.

The good news is that there is a civilian president of Egyptian descent running (sort of) the country. The Revolution has indeed achieved a victory in this sense.To the extent that this development is worth celebrating the Revolution continues.

Remember, there is no parliament in Egypt right now. There is no constitution written by the people. The SCAF keeps unilaterally amending the Constitution, which is completely in violation of all constitutional and legal principles.I found Morsy's comments that he will respect the military somewhat laughable, considering that in actual fact, he serves at the will of the junta. Morsy promises to preserve military's rights.

A cynic might say that the SCAF is simply allowing Morsy's victory as a way of maintaining the veneer of progress. I really respect Abdel Rahman, and this is the line he subscribes too. Let us call it the "marriage of convenience" hypothesis. Morsy Loves You. Egypt runs on the fuel of rumors, and many say that Morsy and the SCAF struck a deal before his victory. Another concern is that a lot of Saudi and possibly Qatari money fueled the Morsy campaign. One of the more interesting rumours I heard at AUC was that Hamas was threatening to blow up key bridges and infrastructure if Morsy did not win. 

I disagree with Robert Fisk writing in the Independent (United Kingdom),Egypt Has No Constitution, Parliament or Control Egypt calmed down considerably after the election of Mohammed Morsy. The stock market rebounded, and an air of calm suffused New Cairo at least. Many were upset, but sort of adopted the stiff upper lip motto.  That being said, a pro Shafiq sit in continues in Nasr City.

In juicy gossip, apparently Shafiq went to Abu Dhabi with (allegedly) thousands of tons of luggage in tow after his defeat. If this story is true, this kind of fairly blatant corruption makes one think that perhaps it is best Shafiq lost. One of the big challenges facing Morsy is to begin prosecuting corrupt officeholders from the Mubarak government seriously. Here is the FJP platform. More analysis later. FJP political program from their very nice English language web page. The biggest issue facing Morsy is improving Egypt's ailing economy.

Here is an interesting article on the way forward for activists. Taking Stock: what comes after the election for activists?

Anguish at Shafiq loss

While Morsy supporters celebrated their candidates win, many Shafiq supporters were despondent, depressed, or even hysterical at his loss.

Shafiq supporters in disbelief after election loss.

Shafiq supporters devastated by loss.

My office this morning was like a morgue. My coworkers, Christian and Muslim alike, were miserable, scared, and uncertain. I tried to comfort them, telling them now is the time for activism, not the time to lose faith.

~WMB

Morsy wins. What Now?

Photo Credit, Al Jazeera.

Press conference melts down, Al Jazeera cuts away to jubilant crowds in Tahrir. People flooding into Tahrir.

I guess this means the election was free and fair at some level, given that the SCAF would have preferred Shafiq.

Morsy wins with 51.73% of vote. 

At 5:10 p.m. 

Please note that nearly half of the people who voted supported Shafiq, in part because he is secular. Morsy has quite a task ahead of him. It was a very narrow victory. There is going to be a large opposition to Morsy rule. Also, many ballots were invalidated. Farouk Sultan said as many as 800,000 people invalidated ballots.

Shafiq supporters in tears. Photo credit, Al Jazeera.

The next task? The constitution. The test of whether Morsy is a true revolutionary is whether he establishes a  Constituent Assembly that is truly representative of the Egyptian people. Another test will be how people are in fact chosen for that Constituent Assembly. The process of selection, as I have said repeatedly, is of the utmost importance.

5:16 p.m. Tahrir is going absolutely wild. People are chanting "The Revolution Continues."

5:18 p.m. People in Tahrir are chanting "Down with military rule." 

The Tahrir protest/celebration is likely to stay in as a sit in against military rule.

6:37 p.m. Here in El Rehab, some young men are walking through the courtyards, drumming, shaking their tambourines, and chanting in a jolly way. The children in the apartment complexes, who are all down playing in the yard, after a day of being cooped up inside by worried parents, are dancing and having fun. Of course, the children, have no idea what is going on. Cars are honking their horns. Is all this festivity a sign that the old, culturally rich, exciting, interesting Egypt is back? Perhaps it is a good omen for happy times ahead.

From twitter

 ‏@cairocitylimits

Judging by celebrations downtown, egypt is more likely to turn into Ibiza than iran

Retweeted by Warigia Bowman

~WMB

Waiting with Baited Breath for Egyptian Presidential Election Results

Photo Credit. Ahmed Al Masry. Thousands of protesters gather in Tahrir Square to participate in Friday of "Rejecting Coup d'etat", Cairo, 22 June 2012, against Constitutional Declaration supplement issued by SCAF.

Dear readers

For those of you in Egypt, I know nothing that you do not know. Everyone is wondering who the presidential victor will be, Morsy or Shafiq?

Breaking News: SCAF and MB may be in negotiations    (11:41 p.m., Friday, Cairo time)

I was at a conference on defense spending and its distortions of various world economies today. It was held at the AUC in Moataz Al Alfi hall. The entire day, we kept checking in with each other, "have you heard anything?"

I asked my boss, whom I think is very thoughtful in these matters. I said to her, "does it really matter if Egypt elects a president, given that Parliament has been dismissed?" She said that indeed, it matters deeply. People need to have a sense that the process will be carried through. Also, if Parliament is dismissed, the presidency would arguably be the democratic bulwark in the country.

I went to Maadi yesterday to see my good friend from the UNDP who is monitoring the elections.   She focused on the fact that Egypt is in a learning process regarding democracy. The highway from Downtown to New Cairo is completely plastered with giant billboards for both the Presidential candidates, right next to each other in many cases. This picture gives you a sense.

Photo credit Reuters. Morsy signs are in Red, Shafiq signs are blue.

If you would like a good background piece to catch up on the situation check out the Carnegie Endowment for International Piece.

The Egyptian Political System in Dissaray by Nathan J. Brown. 

People are worried that violence could break out if one side or the other disputes the results.

I love this photo published in the Egyptian Independent today. It shows a former pasha, with protesters sitting on his statue, Morsy posters plastered everywhere. There is the spire of a mosque on the left hand side, and a glimpse of the heart of high class Cairo, the Semiramis Intercontinental, directly opposite the US Embassy on the right hand side of the photo.

Photo Credit Virginie Nguyen, Egypt Independent.

For non-Egyptian readers, some selections from today's press.


Morsy Urges Fast Election Results

Shafiq Claims Victory in Egyptian Presidential Runoff

Egyptian Media warns of Massacre of the Century

Election's Political Context Flawed, Say Monitors. 

Mursi, Shafiq campaigns both claim victory in Egyptian presidential race


Hoping for the best, most democratic outcome. ~WMB

Democracy under assault after Egyptian election

Egyptian soldiers near Tahrir in February 2011. Photo Credit Al Ahram.

Let me begin my post by telling you the word on the street, and then, I will update you on the "official news."

First of all, a completely non-scientific sample of people in my life produced the following election results. My office manager, who is actually a very observant Muslim, said that "at least if Shafiq is elected, we will have a civilized country, not a religious one." I think she meant civilian, or secular, but point well taken. My taxi driver had no idea what the dismissal of parliament meant, but was very gung ho about Shafiq. My favorite tour operator, who is very literate in both English and Arabic, and quite politically savvy chose Morsi, as the more revolutionarily appropriate choice.

Anyway, what I have heard this morning in New Cairo from a fellow law professor and a colleague at the UN is that Morsi has won, unofficially. That being said, the SCAF has also issued a decree strictly limiting the powers of the presidency. They also told me that the SCAF will appoint the Constituent Assembly, draft a constitution in three months, and then additional parliamentary elections will be held. Further, there is buzz that the SCAF will make all provisions in the Constitution appealable to the Supreme Constitutional Court. I have also heard that the military now has the power to arrest civilians for assembling in public, and other infractions.

Brief thoughts. If Morsy won, then the election was more or less free and fair, because the SCAF wanted Shafiq, one of their own. Then again, what is the point of having a President in the absence of a parliament. It is also yet to be seen if the president will actually be allowed to assume power. Further, I am not a fan of this rushed constitutional process. I also do not think that you can write a constitution from the top down. It must be a consensus process which is widely accepted by the populace. This cannot be attained if the SCAF appoints the members it desires with no feedback from Parliament or other major social organizations. Finally, as I have noted in previous posts, the courts are completely unreconstructed from before the Revolution. They are all Mubarak appointees. The Supreme Constitutional Court members were all picked by the former regime, which feels a lot like the current regime today. It is lunacy to give the Court the power to evaluate which clauses it approves. This is legally problematic at multiple levels. It will take me time to digest that.

Okay, so now, what does the paper say? Al Masry Al Youm says that according to their count (unofficial) Morsy wins with 51.3 percent of the vote. The news also confirms the expansion of military powers. Amended Article 60 gives the military to appoint the Constituent Assembly if the CA developed by the parliament does not fulfil its role.

Check this out.

The SCAF, the president, the prime minister, the Supreme Judicial Council, or one-fifth of the Constituent Assembly have the right to contest any clause issued by the Constituent Assembly if “it is in opposition to the goals of the revolution or its basic principles… or the common principles of Egypt’s past constitutions.”

The assembly would have to revisit the contested clause or clauses within 15 days, and if the contention holds the Supreme Constitutional Court should have the final word.

What?? So, the Supreme Constitutional Court gets to rule on the constitutionality of the Constitution? Very puzzling.

According to Al Ahram, which is nominally state controlled, Morsi fans are already celebrating his election.  AUC Professor, former MP, and liberal political figure Amr Hamzawy laments the restrictions on the newly elected president's powers.

Here is the text of the SCAF amendments (Made by decree) to the constitutional document. Given the frequency with the SCAF rules by decree, the document is beginning to look like a list of military orders.   

So what is the score card? Parliament: mainly Islamist, but some secular forces, few regime forces, only democratically elected institution in Egypt. Status. Dissolved, technically, but impressively defiant. . Judiciary: strong hold of Mubarak Regime appointees. Status. Very powerful. SCAF: the military, secular, but corrupt with strong ties to Mubarak Regime. Status: Currently holds executive and legislative power. President: election results not yet finalized, but Islamist. Status: unclear if president will really be able to be sworn in. 

Here is the New York Times take. The bottom line is that a power struggle is emerging between those who want a civilian state and those who want a military state. Within the coalition of those who do not want a military state, there is a conflict between Islamists and secularists. The Islamists and secularists will have to find an accommodation if they wish to work together against the old forces of Mubarak, now embodied in the SCAF. That is not going to be an easy pill to swallow, but as always, I am cautiously optimistic.   

~WMB
  

A worrying weekend as the Egyptian presidential election approaches

I am here in Cairo for June. Here in Cairo, things are a bit tense. My students are concerned about me. They worry that I do not have enough family to make staying in Cairo during the upcoming election safe. No matter, I have various colleagues, and we live in Rehab, which is likely the safest place in the greater metropolitan area.

Multiple political matters remain up in the air. First, who will participate in the Constituent Assembly, which is supposed to write Egypt's new constitution, is a matter of great contention. The constituent assembly is supposed to be formed of 100 people representing various components of Egyptian society. Yet, its composition has drawn enormous criticism from secular and liberal forces, including ElBaradei. Second, the Supreme Constitutional Court could disband parliament over the legality of the voting in the recent parliamentary elections. Third, this Saturday and Sunday a presidential runoff is scheduled between Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak's last prime minister, and the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsy. Shafiq may yet be disqualified under the Political Isolation Law. The Supreme Constitutional Court may declare the law illegal. Or, the court may choose not to hear the case.  However, the Court is scheduled to hear the case on June 14, 2012, only two days before the scheduled runoff.

If Shafiq is elected, and then disqualified, it could throw political matters--and the country-- into turmoil.

Shafiq is clearly the SCAF's preferred candidate, and his disqualification would loosen their grip on power. Also, the proximity of a potential court decision to the runoff is nerve-wracking. On the way home on the bus, everyone was making nervous jokes about our safety. One of my students says he is going to Ain Sokhna for the election. We asked him why he thinks Ain Sokhna is safer? He said, it is not safer, but at least it will be relaxing and fun. Good point.

Parsing the Egyptian Presidential Election Results

Women stand in line to cast their vote in Alexandria. Photo Credit Al Jazeera.

An Egyptian woman looks at her ballot. Photo Credit, Al Jazeera.

  
Should Egyptians accept the election results?

This is a tough question. It is puzzling that Shafiq outpolled Morsy. There is no question that the Muslim Brotherhood has the best ground game in town. However, for Shafiq to have beaten the Brotherhood, that means that the entire NDP apparatus, i.e. Mubarak's old party, is alive and well. It makes one wonder if there were not behind the scenes election violations that could not be viewed by observers? Allegations of vote buying have been made.  Okay, shaking off my paranoia, here is an interesting analysis of why Shafiq did so well.

Apparently, the secularists and leftists and revolutionaries split their votes between Shabaahi and Fotouh. Of course, vote splitting was to be expected. That said, the top four candidates all polled close to 25%. Given how close the election was, it would have been reasonable to hold a four way runoff. The PEC is not winning any friends in this election. First, they allowed Shafiq to run, even though the parliament banned members of the Mubarak regime from running. There is no question that the PEC's main client was the SCAF.  Second, the decisions of the PEC cannot be appealed.

Many Egyptians are not happy about the outcome. Tahrir was packed today. Issandr El Imrani asks why Egyptians should accept these elections.  Former President Jimmy Carter says his monitors could not observe the whole election, because his mission only got access a week before the race. Overall, however, Carter stated that the results of the election were acceptable.

More worrying than who won, in my view, is the fact that no constitution is in place, and as former President Jimmy Carter pointed out, the Egyptians are electing a president whose powers have not yet been defined. Strange days indeed.

After major protests on Monday, Tahrir Square is calm again.

Runoffs for the presidential elections are slated for the 16th and 17th of June.