Parliamentary and Presidential Elections in Egypt: Part 1

Several steps lie ahead in order for the current military government in Egypt to turn power over to a civilian government. Among these steps are writing a new constitution, electing a parliament, and electing a new president, or prime Minister. A cautionary note-- The likelihood that Egypt will become a full fledged democracy in a year is fairly low. To use a mathematical term, democracy in Egypt in the immediate term is a low-probability event. Democracy watchers in Egypt would be well-advised to be patient-- very patient.

Indeed, as a point of comparison, Kenya, received its independence in 1963. The first truly competitive multi-party election in Kenya was held in 2002, resulting in the first Kenyan president who was truly freely and fairly elected by the Kenyan people. The next election, 2007, did not go so well, and degenerated into a bloodbath, with nearly 2000 dead, and thousands of internally displaced people. In a heartening development, the Kenyan people passed a progressive new Constitution in a free and fair election in August, 2010, giving succor to those who were worried that Kenya's fledgling democracy would not make it. The 2012 election will be a test of the strength of Kenya's emerging democracy. Forty eight years after Independence, Kenya is not yet a full-fledged democracy, rather, it remains a hybrid regime, with some authoritarian tendencies. That being said, Kenya is one of the freest countries in its vicinity. I provide this example to remind the Egypt observer that this is a long path Egypt has started down. Hopefully, they will attain full democracy in a year. My fingers are crossed that Egypt will be so blessed.

One debate that has raged in Egypt the entire spring has been the timing of elections.The military has committed to holding parliamentary elections, followed by a new constitution, and presidential elections. One problem with this schedule is: 1) it does not provide sufficient time for developing a new constitution, and 2) It seems to foreclose the possibility of a true parliamentary system with a prime minister, in favor of a "strong president" system.

A threat to the emergence of a full democracy in Egypt is the SCAF's reluctance to "renounce its role in managing the affairs of the country during this crucial time in Egypt's history." (Staff, "Egypt's Deputy PM resign amid protests," Al Jazeera, July 12, 2011). Indeed, the military is moving to protect an even expand its authority. Observers had been heartened that several parties had agreed to adopt a "declaration of basic principles," to govern the drafting of the Egyptian Constitution. The thinking was that this declaration would protect a civil state, and reign in the Islamists. (Author interview with Abdel Ghaffr Shokr). However, legal scholars working on the document now suggest that the military might use the declaration to spell out the military's role in the civilian government.

One worrying provision in this declaration of basic principles, is that it could potentially make the defense budget unavailable for public or parliamentary review. (David D. Kirkpatrick, "Egypt Military Aims to Cement Muscular Role in Government," New York Times, July 16, 2011) Given that the defense budget is a huge proportion of Egypt's current budget, this provision could be extremely problematic. (Author interview with Samer Soliman). If the military retains the right to intervene broadly in Egyptian politics, it would limit popular sovereignty, constraining the emerging Egyptian democracy.

Further, I worry about the wisdom of rushing the constitutional process. In general, constitutions take years to write. By sandwiching the constitutional drafting process in between parliamentary elections and presidential elections, the SCAF is de facto limiting the time available to deliberate on the provisions of the constitution. We saw hints of this kind of a rushed process in the military's rush to put the constitutional amendments to a referendum in a matter of weeks. After little public debate, and an accelerated process, the referendum went well enough. But it was then followed by a military decree of over 50 constitutional amendments with no public input whatsoever. This process is not really a process, and is not really a democratic process.

Steps should be put in place to ensure that the parliament has a strong role in the new constitution, both on paper, and in practice. The old parliament under Mubarak, dominated by the state sanctioned National Democratic Party, was little more than a rubber stamp. Indeed, a fact-finding judicial committee recently ruled that Safwat al-Sharif, the former speaker of the Shura, and other parliamentarians masterminded the "Camel Battle" on February 2, 2011, that left several protesters dead. (Staff, Egyptians demand post-revolution changes," Al Jazeera, July 15, 2011)

The conventional wisdom had been that parliamentary elections would be held in September. Nonetheless, this schedule seemed rushed, given that Ramadan ends on August 30th (more or less). In an interview with Abdel Ghaffr Shokr in late June, Shokr explained that given the multiple steps that are required to hold elections, September elections simply were not feasible. This analysis was confirmed when the SCAF said preparations for the vote would begin on September 30th, 2011. (AP, "Arab Spring hardens into Summer of Stalemates," The Washington Post, July 14, 2011). In many ways, this delayed schedule is good news, as it gives more time for civilian, non-Islamist, non-NDP political forces to prepare for the parliamentary vote.

Updated Post on Facts of Libyan Crisis: Week of April 3, 2011

Dear readers


Sorry for the hiatus on news reporting. I went to Kenya to pick up my children this weekend. I evacuated them from Egypt during the Revolution. So we are all back in a New Egypt. Okay, back to work! WMB


Updated April 9, 2011, 11:21 p.m. Cairo time. 


There is the possibility that Libya will be partitioned as war continues into a stalemate. 


http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/392903


Updated April 8, 2011, 12:03 p.m. Cairo time. For previous updates, click here . 


According to Democracy Now, Libyan rebels accuse NATO of killing rebels in air strikes near town of Brega. Rebel leaders have sharply criticized NATO of failing to stop advance of Qadaffi. {editors, note, surprised what a big difference between NATO and US, and also surprised at how strong Qadaffi is.} Four journalists, including two Americans, have been detained in Libya.


April 5th
Democracy Now reports the following:  The FBI has begun questioning Libyans and Libyan Americans living in the US. Libyan Rebels have rejected a proposal that would depose Qaddafi but leave one of his sons in power (Seif Al Islam el-Qaddafi). Rebels are beginning to export oil to fund their operations. Libya is Africa's third largest oil producer. Mohammed Nabous, a Libyan citizen journalist in Benghazi was shot and killed Saturday morning. According to the New York Times,  "Forces loyal to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi battered rebel fighters on the road outside a strategic oil town Tuesday." Libyan Rebels Flee Brega. Apparently, since NATO has taken charge of the air command, air strikes are less frequent. The Libyan government spokesman stated that Qaddafi must remain in power or risk a power vacuum. 

An Evening at the Souk

Article first published at Blogcritics. Photo of Khan al Kallili bazaar by Leo LaPorte.

Some of everyday politics is to be found in the market. Today was my day off. I went to have a dinner at an expatriate restaurant at the local market with a university colleague. The market, or souk, is the heartbeat of the community. If politics are going smoothly, as they are today, all the shops are open well into the evening. The market bustles. Men outdoors gather around a large screen TV to watch the latest soccer match. Women and children buy groceries and pick through the gorgeous vegetables displayed on the sidewalk. Music plays. Young women pass by in hijab, tight jeans and high heels, modest, yet provocative at the same time. My colleague and I walked to a small stand, and inhale one of the most delicious glasses of lemonade I have ever drunk. "Ishta" I say, with a thumbs up sign."Shukran." Delicious, thanks. The proprietor smiles broadly.

I did not see any tanks on the way to the souk, but inside the souk was a large truck with an open canvas back filled with soldiers in camoflauge. On the whole, I suppose their presence represents security, but in a country that is actually ruled by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, their presence also highlights the absence of democracy, and the utter absence of the pro-Mubarak police forces.

I remember the worst days of the Egyptian Revolution, probably February 2nd and 3rd, when I huddled in a Sudanese neighbor's house with my three children. My children loved this tense time, playing with Samira and Hamid's five children, ranging in ages from 12 to 6 months. The parents hunched worriedly around BBC World, trying to determine what was going on in this, our host country. The next day, I moved my children to Kenya, where they remain today, to their grandma and a bit of safety.

A bit over a month ago it was then. A phone call was impossible, and the souk, which today seemed so vibrant, was nearly closed, with only a few bread stores open, and lines stretching around the block for provisions. My thoughts lie with the Libyans who much be experiencing terrible food shortages. At the end of the evening, my taxi driver, Emad Ghoneem, takes me to a neighbouring area called Tagamoo. We pay some money inside of a nondescript looking corner store, and get back into the taxi to wait. The proprieter George brings me the desired contraband, a bottle of white wine. I return to my beautiful apartment, and pour the much anticipated glass of wine.  It is dry, and delicious, but leaves a slightly bitter aftertaste. Like the Egyptian Revolution, it has not yet matured

Amending the Egyptian Constitution Part 2

10:20 a.m

Hi all, the vote is today. VERY EXCITING!!! This is really important. So many African countries are revising their constitutions. Kenya just revised its constitution and it passed on August 4, 2010. There is a lot to learn from Kenya. Sudan is newly independent and they will be working on their constitution soon. Lets learn from each others as Africans.

10:25 a.m.
As I mentioned, I attended a crash course on training for the constitution held by a colleague, Professor Mervat Abou Ouf, at the American University in Cairo on March 16, 2011. She gave a very lucid presentation, and she is my new hero. Here is her link.

http://www.aucegypt.edu/fac/profiles/pages/mervatabouauf.aspx

According to Professor Mervat Abou Ouf, the parliament is currently dissolved, and the constitution is on pause.

The proposed amendments make several changes to the Egyptian Constitution of 1971. Here are her comments on just a few of the amendments.

75: First, it amends part 75, to say that the Egyptian President should be born to two Egyptian parents, and cannot marry a non-Egyptian. One issue with this is that so many people left the country and lived abroad while Mubarak was in power, that it really discriminates against those returning in exile. This rule does not require that one be born in Egypt! Interestingly, in theory, one could be born in France, speak French but no Arabic. Then, one could marry a French Egyptian. In theory, you could never have lived in Egypt, yet still be eligible to be President. In addition, there is some argument about the Arabic, as it suggests that you cannot marry a non-Egyptian wife. I can neither confirm nor deny this, because I cannot speak Arabic, but it certainly  indicates women cannot run for president, if it is in fact true.

76: This provision seems desirable. It makes it easier to run for President. Under the old Constitution, only Mubarak's son Gamal really could have qualified for the presidency, because the qualifications were so restrictive. Now, this provision provides three ways to run for president, You may be nominated by members of Parliament in two chambers, you may be nominated by 30,000 citizens in 15 governorates, or you may be nominated by a party holding at least one seat in the Parliament.

Say No to Everything
One reaction to the proposed referendum is that it is unreasonable to make people vote on the Constititutional amendments as a unified batch. It is an all or nothing strategy. Holding the vote at this time is risky, and controversial due to the high illiteracy rate in Egypt, and the speed with which the amendments are being pushed through. One really must ask if citizens have had enough time to reflect on these amendments. In addition, the team which wrote the constitutional amendments was appointed by the military or the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces as they are known here. This is hardly a democratic process. It would be better if people had the choice to vote on each provision separately. In today's vote, there are only two options. Yes, and No. It would be much better if the Egyptian people had a third choice, such as the choice to vote that they want a completely new constitution.

Egyptians Vote on Constitutional Changes
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2011/03/18/world/middleeast/AP-ML-Egypt.html?hp

According to the New York Times, this is the first major test of the country's transition to democracy since the overthrow of Mubarak. Arguably, in my view, this is the first remotely free election ever held in Egypt, and  that is to say, ever. . . .

11:48 a.m.
What happens if people vote No on the referendum?
The upside to voting No is that it does not revive the 1971 Constitution. The downside to voting no is that there is basically military rule with no President, no Parliament, and no Constitution. I personally was very happy with my interactions with the military yesterday in Tahrir Square. That being said, Egypt is currently under a military dictatorship, and that is not a comfortable feeling for those who love democracy. There is no guarantee that the currently friendly military could not turn on a dime and become a violent dictatorial regime. In the event of a No vote the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces could, possibly, put a decree in place saying they are in power for X number of months. It is not clear what will happen from a legal and a constitutional perspective if the people vote No.

What happens if People Vote Yes in the Referendum?
According to Professor Abou Ouf, the people who support a yes vote are the military, the people seeking safety and regularity, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the National Democratic Party (supporters of the former Mubarak Government). In addition, some other extremists, in her view, may support a yes vote. Concerns include the fact, mentioned above, that there has not been enough time to review the changes. In addition, the articles are not finalized, and people are not very clear even regarding the Arabic construction of some of the points, which could change the legal meaning of the document. In addition, and disturbingly, voting for the amendments would seem to reinstate the 1971 constitution. In a strange set of circumstances, the amendments do not account for the fact that this constitution which requires a Parliament and a President, would be in place in the absence of those two figures, but a military government would be in place instead. This means that the Constitution would actually be violated while it was in force.

Presidential vs. Parliamentary System
The issue of whether Egypt should have a parliamentary or presidential system, or a mixed system is not addressed at all by the amendments, but should be considered before Egyptians pass a new constitution.  There is a vast political science literature on this, and it is an important matter. Thanks to Steve Levitsky of Harvard University for teaching me this idea in his class on Comparative Politics.
http://scholar.harvard.edu/levitsky/home

Drawbacks for New Political Parties
In theory, there are twenty four political parties in Egypt. Nonetheless, they are very weak. As a result, the main party is the National Democratic Party, Mubarak's old party. In addition, the loyal opposition has been the Muslim Brotherhood. They are very well organized. Some say they are fielding as many as three new parties in the new election. What will happen to less organized parties who are not of the ancien regime, but also do not believe in the Muslim Brotherhood.

1:14 p.m. According to a student,  violence is breaking out at polling stations in Giza. People are voting in more than one committee and penetrating rooms with falsified paper. Asyout and Sharkeya are becoming more violent.

Other Concerns:
A Yes vote could be problematic for several reasons. It is unclear if the President, (whenever Egypt gets one) could run again after two terms. In addition, there will be numerous elections this year. There may be as many as seven (7) elections in less than one year. It is very hard to keep track of everything that is going on right now, and citizens are likely to suffer from election fatigue. It is unlikely that the old government is not going to relinquish power without a struggle.


References
El baradei, supporters, attacked at polling station.
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/365228
The Found art of voting
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/365137
Thug Life, Pro Mubarak Bullies Break their silence
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/365137
Frustrated Zamalek Residents leave three hour queue
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/365137
Phone interview with RM, NDP supporter and youth voter, March 19, 2011.
Phone interview with MF, businessman and no voter, March 20, 2011. 
Egyptians Turn Out in large Numbers to Vote on Constitutional Referendum
http://www.rferl.org/content/egypt_referendum_/2343176.html