Speech about Egyptian Democratization to the Arkansas Peace and Justice Coalition, January 12, 2013

 

 

Mural of Nasser, Tahrir Square, January 12, 2013

Democratization in Egypt
January 12, 2013

Thank you for inviting me here tonight. It is a real honor to have received this invitation, and be asked to speak in front of such a diverse group of progressive activists.

I am excited about the chosen topic for tonight’s talk, but I also realize its pitfalls. How do I summarize the high points of a Revolution only two years old, but one that has more excitement, plot twists, and drama than a novel by Tolstoy? I was lucky enough to live through the Egyptian Revolution, and actually arrived in Egypt to teach at the American University in Cairo on the first official day of the Revolution, January 25, 2011. I stayed in that country until December 31st, at which point I returned to the US, and began teaching at the Clinton School of Public Service.

So tonight, I am going to just briefly sketch a history of movement towards democratization in Egypt over the past two years, and what I believe are the concerns around those matters. Then, I want to invite questions from the audience to fill in the gaps people are most interested in.

Demographically, Egypt has significant economic potential. It is the most populous country in the Arab world. It has the Nile River. It has strong ties to both Africa and the Middle East and lies upon the mediterranean ocean. It has significant natural gas reserves, and massive tourist potential. It has a well developed manufacturing base, and some impressive engineering, such as the Aswan dam. It is a diverse country with approximately 90 percent of a Muslim population, ten percent Coptic Christian, and the remaining population consisting of Bahais, and traditionalists. Every shade of skin is represented in Egypt from the blue eyes and blond hair of Alexandria, to the dusky tones of the bedouin in the Sinai, and the rich dark skin of the Nubians in Upper Egypt.

So, what is the current political situation in Egypt? As you know, an enlightenment style revolution swept through Egypt two years ago.  One of the mottos of the revolution was “bread, equality and social justice.” Hosni Mubarak, a US ally, and an authoritarian, oligarchic leader was forced to leave power.

Politically, Mubarak was very beholden to the US. He was enormously corrupt. He had emerged from the military and maintained strong ties with them. Under Mubarak, business and the state became one in a manner a political scientist might characterize as nearly fascist. In an interesting twist, the military created its own business empire under his rule. Under Mubarak, the poor became desperately poor. Illiteracy increased to nearly 70 percent, and corruption was rife. Inequality increased rapidly, and as the Revolution indicated, Mubarak and his cronies stole a significant amount of the nation’s wealth under his rule.

After Mubarak left, the country was ruled for an extended period by the military, known as the Supreme Council of Armed Forces, or SCAF.  Essentially, the country remained authoritarian in this period, but the military was the leader, not Mubarak. Many viewed this as the death of one head of a two-headed hydra, where the beast remained alive.  One head had been cut off yet the other head remained.

The conservative right and liberal left categories which categorize Europe and perhaps the US simply do not fit well in Egypt. Rather, parties can more easily be divided along a crucial axis: support for a secular state, or support for a religious (Islamic) state. Another axis might be support for human rights, democratic mechanisms, social justice and the poor, or conversely support for large business, the military and an authoritarian state. So to give an example, Mubarak was secular, but pro-business and autocratic. The Muslim Brotherhood supports poverty relief, but also leans towards an Islamist state. The Nour party (Salafis) support a strong Islamist state and have no well thought out views on most of the other issues. The opposition led in part by Mohammed El Baradei, supports a secular state, the rights of women and minorities, poverty reduction, and more democratic approaches.  

As a point of clarification, being Muslim does not make one an Islamist, or a radical or al qaeda. There are many practicing Muslims who prefer a secular state. The threat, in my view, comes from the Salafis, or fundamentalists, who wish to impose a Wahabi, Saudi style, stripped down, and very strict version of Islam on Egypt. These are the people who are destroying Sufi relics in Mali, and who terrorize Afghanistan as the Taliban. Like Christianity, Islam has many voices, from the most conservative, (Wahabi) to the most liberal, perhaps the Sufi, and a whole spectrum in between.

A burst of optimism among the liberal secularists occurred as the nation prepared for the first ever truly free parliamentary elections in the Winter and Spring of 2012. However, after the dust had settled, the first post-revolutionary Egyptian parliament had few women, and many Islamists, some of them extreme. One good outcome of the parliamentary election was that the liberals and secularists did better than expected, capturing about 15 percent of the seats in the lower house. Given the fact that the majority of liberal parties were formed after the Revolution, I believe that was a strong showing.

Late in the spring, however,  the sunshine of democracy dimmed as the judiciary dismissed the lower house of parliament on technical grounds.

In June 2012, I returned to Egypt to the American University in Cairo to work on my research. In mid June, an election took place between Ahmed Shafiq, former prime minister under Mubarak and a military man, and Mohammed Morsy, a well educated engineer, and prominent member of the Muslim Brotherhood. Tensions ran very high, and matters were tense. It appeared to be a Hobson’s Choice: on the one hand, Shafiq was resolutely secular, but nonetheless had strong ties to the deposed regime. On the other hand Mohammed Morsy was a revolutionary of sorts, but he was also clearly an Islamist. It was really a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea. As we know now, it was a tightly contested election, but Morsy seems to have fairly won Egypt’s presidency.

This ushered in another strange interregnum with both democratic and authoritarian elements. An Islamist was President, the judiciary had been appointed by the old regime, and the freely elected parliament had been dismissed. After only a few months in power, Morsy stunned the world by trying to implement a power grab in late November 2012, sparking outrage and massive protests across Egypt.

Egypt’s New Constitution was approved by referendum in December, and was signed into law by President Mohamed Morsy on December 26, 2012. Human Rights Watch states that the draft constitution provides for basic protections against arbitrary dentention and torture and for some economic rights. However, it fails to end military trials of civilians or protect freedom of expression and religion. One positive development is that the final draft does not require strict adherence to sharia with regard to women's rights (former article 68 has been removed). However, sex or gender is not a grounds for prohibiting discrimination in the approved version, and potentially interferes with women's choices about work and family.

Also, in the period between Christmas and New Years, more developments occurred. In accordance with the recently passed Constitution, eight judges have been dismissed from the Supreme Constitutional Court, one of whom was the first Egyptian woman to hold a post in the judiciary. Activists believe this dismissal violates the separation of powers, and shows that the judiciary is increasingly under attack.

The dispute about the Constitution, which was largely viewed as drafted by Islamists, has had a positive side effect of bringing the opposition together. The new opposition coalition is called the National Salvation Front. This group includes Mohamed El Baradei, the Social Democratic Party (a European style left democratic group), The Free Egyptians (A free market group which has secular and coptic membership) and a variety of socialist, communist, and secular groups.

All legislative power now rests with the upper house, the Shura. A draft law on elections has been proposed by the Egyptian Shura council.  This law is being put in place to plan for a new round of parliamentary elections scheduled for April.  The National Council of Women, however,has  said the draft does not allow proper representation of women in Parliament, nor does it represent the capabilities, potential and ambitions of women after the January 25th revolution.

So, in summary, there is good news and bad news about democratization in Egypt.  Egypt has made remarkable, and bold strides. It is impressive that elections were held. They were not completely free and fair, but neither were they totally rigged. The fact that the Islamists won is encouraging in the sense that the electorate did elect a completely different group into power than held power during the Mubarak government. The bad news is that the Islamists are not progressive, nor particularly interested in democratic institutions, and they seem to be consolidating their grip on power.

As we have seen, two years into the Revolution, there is still a lot of work to still be done. That is, in and of itself, not a bad thing. Please remember that the French Revolution took nearly twenty years to complete. Many countries that have gone through democratic transitions recently, including Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa, often experienced long periods of partial transition. Thus, it would be realistic to assume that Egypt has a good ten to twenty years ahead of it before the democratic transition is complete.

What can American activists do to support democracy in Egypt? We can send support and training to the emerging progressive parties, such as the National Salvation Front, and urge the American government to do the same. We can also educate our fellow Americans that there are different kinds of Islam, most of which are moderate, and not affilated with al qaeda. We can also encourage support for the rule of law, and democratic processes. The best idea is to support Egyptian based NGOs doing work in these areas.

Reacting to the Swearing in of Morsy as Egypt's President

A Morsy supporter prays on Egyptian flag after presidential announcement.

 

June 24, 2012. Photo Credit Mohamed Hesham

Dear readers

Mohamed Morsy is now officially Egypt's president. He does not have very many powers, to be sure. Most of the power in the country is still in the hand's of the Supreme Council of Armed Forces, aka the military junta.

The good news is that there is a civilian president of Egyptian descent running (sort of) the country. The Revolution has indeed achieved a victory in this sense.To the extent that this development is worth celebrating the Revolution continues.

Remember, there is no parliament in Egypt right now. There is no constitution written by the people. The SCAF keeps unilaterally amending the Constitution, which is completely in violation of all constitutional and legal principles.I found Morsy's comments that he will respect the military somewhat laughable, considering that in actual fact, he serves at the will of the junta. Morsy promises to preserve military's rights.

A cynic might say that the SCAF is simply allowing Morsy's victory as a way of maintaining the veneer of progress. I really respect Abdel Rahman, and this is the line he subscribes too. Let us call it the "marriage of convenience" hypothesis. Morsy Loves You. Egypt runs on the fuel of rumors, and many say that Morsy and the SCAF struck a deal before his victory. Another concern is that a lot of Saudi and possibly Qatari money fueled the Morsy campaign. One of the more interesting rumours I heard at AUC was that Hamas was threatening to blow up key bridges and infrastructure if Morsy did not win. 

I disagree with Robert Fisk writing in the Independent (United Kingdom),Egypt Has No Constitution, Parliament or Control Egypt calmed down considerably after the election of Mohammed Morsy. The stock market rebounded, and an air of calm suffused New Cairo at least. Many were upset, but sort of adopted the stiff upper lip motto.  That being said, a pro Shafiq sit in continues in Nasr City.

In juicy gossip, apparently Shafiq went to Abu Dhabi with (allegedly) thousands of tons of luggage in tow after his defeat. If this story is true, this kind of fairly blatant corruption makes one think that perhaps it is best Shafiq lost. One of the big challenges facing Morsy is to begin prosecuting corrupt officeholders from the Mubarak government seriously. Here is the FJP platform. More analysis later. FJP political program from their very nice English language web page. The biggest issue facing Morsy is improving Egypt's ailing economy.

Here is an interesting article on the way forward for activists. Taking Stock: what comes after the election for activists?

Democracy under assault after Egyptian election

Egyptian soldiers near Tahrir in February 2011. Photo Credit Al Ahram.

Let me begin my post by telling you the word on the street, and then, I will update you on the "official news."

First of all, a completely non-scientific sample of people in my life produced the following election results. My office manager, who is actually a very observant Muslim, said that "at least if Shafiq is elected, we will have a civilized country, not a religious one." I think she meant civilian, or secular, but point well taken. My taxi driver had no idea what the dismissal of parliament meant, but was very gung ho about Shafiq. My favorite tour operator, who is very literate in both English and Arabic, and quite politically savvy chose Morsi, as the more revolutionarily appropriate choice.

Anyway, what I have heard this morning in New Cairo from a fellow law professor and a colleague at the UN is that Morsi has won, unofficially. That being said, the SCAF has also issued a decree strictly limiting the powers of the presidency. They also told me that the SCAF will appoint the Constituent Assembly, draft a constitution in three months, and then additional parliamentary elections will be held. Further, there is buzz that the SCAF will make all provisions in the Constitution appealable to the Supreme Constitutional Court. I have also heard that the military now has the power to arrest civilians for assembling in public, and other infractions.

Brief thoughts. If Morsy won, then the election was more or less free and fair, because the SCAF wanted Shafiq, one of their own. Then again, what is the point of having a President in the absence of a parliament. It is also yet to be seen if the president will actually be allowed to assume power. Further, I am not a fan of this rushed constitutional process. I also do not think that you can write a constitution from the top down. It must be a consensus process which is widely accepted by the populace. This cannot be attained if the SCAF appoints the members it desires with no feedback from Parliament or other major social organizations. Finally, as I have noted in previous posts, the courts are completely unreconstructed from before the Revolution. They are all Mubarak appointees. The Supreme Constitutional Court members were all picked by the former regime, which feels a lot like the current regime today. It is lunacy to give the Court the power to evaluate which clauses it approves. This is legally problematic at multiple levels. It will take me time to digest that.

Okay, so now, what does the paper say? Al Masry Al Youm says that according to their count (unofficial) Morsy wins with 51.3 percent of the vote. The news also confirms the expansion of military powers. Amended Article 60 gives the military to appoint the Constituent Assembly if the CA developed by the parliament does not fulfil its role.

Check this out.

The SCAF, the president, the prime minister, the Supreme Judicial Council, or one-fifth of the Constituent Assembly have the right to contest any clause issued by the Constituent Assembly if “it is in opposition to the goals of the revolution or its basic principles… or the common principles of Egypt’s past constitutions.”

The assembly would have to revisit the contested clause or clauses within 15 days, and if the contention holds the Supreme Constitutional Court should have the final word.

What?? So, the Supreme Constitutional Court gets to rule on the constitutionality of the Constitution? Very puzzling.

According to Al Ahram, which is nominally state controlled, Morsi fans are already celebrating his election.  AUC Professor, former MP, and liberal political figure Amr Hamzawy laments the restrictions on the newly elected president's powers.

Here is the text of the SCAF amendments (Made by decree) to the constitutional document. Given the frequency with the SCAF rules by decree, the document is beginning to look like a list of military orders.   

So what is the score card? Parliament: mainly Islamist, but some secular forces, few regime forces, only democratically elected institution in Egypt. Status. Dissolved, technically, but impressively defiant. . Judiciary: strong hold of Mubarak Regime appointees. Status. Very powerful. SCAF: the military, secular, but corrupt with strong ties to Mubarak Regime. Status: Currently holds executive and legislative power. President: election results not yet finalized, but Islamist. Status: unclear if president will really be able to be sworn in. 

Here is the New York Times take. The bottom line is that a power struggle is emerging between those who want a civilian state and those who want a military state. Within the coalition of those who do not want a military state, there is a conflict between Islamists and secularists. The Islamists and secularists will have to find an accommodation if they wish to work together against the old forces of Mubarak, now embodied in the SCAF. That is not going to be an easy pill to swallow, but as always, I am cautiously optimistic.   

~WMB
  

An Eerily Quiet Election Day in Egypt

Second round of Presidential elections. Photo Credit Virginie Nguyen, Al Masry al Youm.

The first day of presidential elections in Egypt has been extremely quiet. We kept everyone indoors today, out of worry for our safety, but it was one of the quietest days I have ever experienced in Cairo. I noticed that the muezzin gave a particularly elegant, and flowery call this afternoon in the call to prayer, but that was the only unusual item of the day.

After so many elections, two for the peoples assembly, two for the shura, and now two for the President, citizens are certainly facing election fatigue. Furthermore, Thursday's decision has invalidated all the hard work that went into electing the only democratic body in Egypt, the parliament.

The military (the SCAF) is in full control of the government, and everyone is in shock. The SCAF has full legislative powers until parliament is reelected. If Shafiq wins the presidency, the SCAF will hold both legislative and executive powers. The judiciary was never reformed, so represents part of the Mubarak regime. Jaadaliya reports that court rulings represent a blow to civilian forces.

 The euphoria that reigned a year ago after the revolution has been replaced by a kind of despair. But activists are not giving up. They continue to organize. They continue to build their party, and strengthen their ground and grassroots contacts. Their faith is inspiring, and the revolution is still alive.

Vote turnout has been extremely low.  Two different projects are afoot, one to boycott the elections, and one to turn in invalidated ballots. Activists plan vote nullification campaign.

Confusion after court rulings in Egypt

Last night I was meeting with a friend who is active in a major secular party in Egypt. There was some confusion about the future of the party. Yesterday's court ruling invalidated all the seats won by independents in parliament: approximately 1/3 of the seats. As a result, the parliament is effectively disbanded, because there are not enough people in parliament to hold sessions.

Hundreds in Tahrir Protest against Supreme Court rulings.

I cannot verify this, but my friend said that even if Shafiq wins, if the Parliament is disbanded, there will be no one to swear him in. Therefore, whoever wins the presidential election may not actually be in power until the parliament is reconstituted.

Egypt's high court calls for dissolution of Parliament.

I was at the Marriot in Zamalek for a lecture on "The Arab Awakening: One Year On." The lecture was held by the AUC. After the lecture, I spoke with my friend on the outdoor patio, so that he could smoke a cigarette. Who did we run into but Amr Hamzawy, my former colleague at the PPAD. He was with his beautiful wife, Basma. He looked a little stressed, because he is one of the independents who have now lost their seats. But, he was optimistic.

Blow to Transition as Court invalidates Parliament.

Many at the conference I attended last night, referred to the events as a "coup." Further, my friend suggested that the courts are not independent, and are actually controlled by the SCAF. Indeed, the courts have been operating with little or no reform since the Revolution.

Parliament's Dissolution Could Postpone Presidential Election.

Ironically, I had a girl's lunch at one thirty, and one of my colleagues who works at the UNDP told us that one third of parliament would be dismissed, and that Shafiq would be allowed to run. By two thirty, her predictions were confirmed. 

Clashes in Abbaseya

The streets of Cairo are calmer today then they were yesterday. Clashes in Abbaseya occurred on Friday as anti-military protesters were violently dispersed from the area near the defense ministry. Troops at the Defense Ministry clashed with civilians. One soldier was killed and hundreds of people were wounded in the clashes which took place three weeks before the presidential election.

Traffic Flows Normally in Abbaseya 

Here is a really good play by play description of the event by my colleague  Mr. Hussein who writes a blog at Sibilant Egypt.

Escape from Abbaseya 

The military prosecution has detained 179 protesters for 15 days on a variety of charges after the protests in Abbaseya. The protests were against the countries military rulers, otherwise known as the SCAF. The UN Secretary general has condemned the clashes, saying citizens have a right to assemble peacefully.  At least 18 journalists have been detained after the clashes.

Mass Arrest of Protesters and Journalists reported at Defense Ministry

Journalists Syndicate Demands Release of Journalists Detained in Abbaseya

~WMB

Good article on El Baradei's resignation

Check out this great article written by my former student John Ehab. It is about El Baradei's decision not to run for the presidency in Egypt. 

Following the high Islamist turnout in Egypt’s parliamentary elections, Mohamed ElBaradei, the former director of the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, and a major political player in the Egyptian revolution, withdrew from the upcoming presidential race. 

"My conscience does not allow me to run for the presidency or any other official position unless there is real democracy," ElBaradei said in his statement announcing his decision. He added that those who are currently holding power in Egypt, the Security Council of Armed Forces (SCAF), are no better than ousted former President Hosni Mubarak. 

One of the most important factors that effected ElBaradei’s pullout was the decision to establish the new constitution after the presidential elections, leaving the president’s role undefined until after the office is filled. 

"It is a great loss, but an honorable political stance," says George Ishak, prominent Egyptian opposition figure and member of the National Association for Change (NAC), which ElBaradei founded. 

Ishak anticipates that the military council and the Islamists, who make up around 70 percent of the newly elected parliament, will coordinate to back a candidate. “The two groups might surprise Egyptians by proposing a surprise candidate that will please both the Islamists and the SCAF."

Whether ElBaradei’s decision will limit the chances of secularists or liberals, it will not affect the influence that the Nobel Prize winner has had in helping build youth networks active in the Egyptian public sphere.

To read more: Egypt's warrior for democracy opts out.

Egyptian State of Emergency Ends

The head of the SCAF, Field Marshall Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, stated in a televised address that he has decided to lift the state of emergency.  

The state of emergency, which has been in place for over 30 years, is being lifted as of tomorrow, to mark the anniversary of the January 25th Revolution. The state of emergency was extended, and indeed expanded, even after the Revolution by the ruling military council. 

Tantawi stated that the law may still be applied in cases of "thuggery," although it is utterly unclear what that means. Arguably, the SCAF could be accused in many cases of thuggery itself over the past year.

~WMB

The New Year Creaks In

Dear Readers

I do not know how you feel, but I feel exhausted, and the New Year has barely begun.

I think it is very interesting that El Baradei has withdrawn from the Presidential race. The cynics might say that he did it because he was not popular with the grass roots. Who knows? I really admire El Baradei, and I think he is exactly what Egypt needs, but then again, I am not Egyptian, so who am I to say?

He may be able to do better work on the outside as part of the "loyal opposition." I admire the crucial role he played in the Egyptian Revolution. There is plenty of work to be done to keep the Revolution on track, and keeping the SCAF honest as the transition continues. I think that El Baradei, with his global view, and intellectual, yet warm and compassionate persona (I have met him)  is the right person to hold the transitional council to task.



Heba Afify, El Baradei's Withdraw from Presidential Race Egyptian Independent, (January 15, 2012)


He has vowed to focus his efforts on organizing youth and concentrating on the basic demands of the Revolution, including Bread, Freedom and Human Dignity.  I think El Baradei will be Egypt's Gandhi.

~WMB

AUC Faculty Experts Dissect Election Results

Reposted from AUC Egypt Daily email newsletter

News at AUC December 7, 2011

In the first round of Egypt’s post-revolution parliamentary elections, which were held in nine governorates including Cairo and Alexandria, Islamist parties won 65 percent of all votes cast for parties, with the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party winning 36.62 percent, followed by Al-Nur Party of the hardline Salafis with 24.36 percent and Al-Wasat Party with 4.27 percent. Meanwhile, the liberalist secular alliance, the Egyptian Bloc, secured 13.35 percent of the votes, and the New Wafd Party got 7 percent.

“The coming struggle will most likely be between the Democrats and Islamic fundamentalism,” said Ezzedine Fishere, distinguished lecturer of political science. “That might be a more difficult and protracted struggle, and will have an uncertain outcome. But it will be, I believe, the last political obstacle standing between us Egyptians and a liberal democracy.”

Results in the first round of elections have raised complex questions about Egypt’s future and where it is heading in this new political landscape – one in which Islamists seem to be the dominant force in the country’s transition from military rule. “The scene in Egypt may lead Egyptians to shortly replace police dictatorship with a theocratic dictatorship,” said Said Sadek, a faculty member in the Department of Sociology, Anthropology, Psychology and Egyptology. “The task after the elections is immense, especially for the Egyptian economy. A Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi government would further plunge the economy to an abyss. People will rise up in a new revolution against them but after more political and economic disasters would have befallen the Egyptian economy, society, women, religious minorities and human rights.” 

Samer Soliman, assistant professor of political science, expressed a different viewpoint. “The Muslim Brotherhood today is different than that of a decade ago; it has developed and matured,” he said. “Despite some violations, the Muslim Brotherhood worked hard and has a strong base among people; therefore, the results are logical. The liberalists should now organize themselves and work harder to secure a similar popular base among the people.”

Soliman was quick to point out, however, that the “Muslim Brotherhood now has the right to help in the formation of government, but it will never have the right to infringe on human rights.”

While some chose to boycott the elections in light of the recent violence in Tahrir, Khaled Fahmy, chair of the history department, feels the elections were vital. “With these elections, Egypt passed a huge step toward democracy,” he said. “Even though I am against the boycott, I understand and respect those who were calling for it. I do believe, however, that participating in elections is one way, among many, including continuing the Tahrir sit-in, to force the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) out of the picture.”

Nevertheless, Fahmy is discontent with the run-up to the elections. “The law governing elections is a disastrous one that combines the worst features of the single-candidate district model with the worst features of the proportional representation model,” Fahmy explained, adding that “SCAF’s cavalier policies confused both voters and candidates and effectively dissipated the efforts of the new parties, as well as the more established ones, and distracted them to side issues instead of giving them the opportunity to reach out to voters, sharpen their messages, present credible electoral programs and build grassroots organizations with their constituencies. I strongly believe that the Egyptian people deserve a much better elections law than this one, and that after the January 25 Revolution, we were entitled to a much better, more substantial election campaign than what we witnessed.”

With the second and third round of elections looming ahead, as well as the drafting of a new constitution for the country and the 2012 presidential elections, Fishere predicts that Egypt will be witnessing an intense struggle between the Islamists, the military and the liberals. “This election has revealed the relative strength of the different forces in society, and the Islamists now feel more confident,” he said. “Egyptian Democrats who focused their energies on resisting the rule of the military will now have to fight on two fronts.”

Tahrir peaceful and protest growing

I have a friend in from town. He is going to the Egyptian Museum today. The tour guide, Waleed, went to Tahrir this morning, and says it is peaceful, and crowded. He participated in the January 25th Revolution. He said we should expect close to one million people in Tahrir by the end of the day. People are streaming in from everywhere.

Waleed and my friend were in Fayoum yesterday, and they said the people there are opposed to the military.

Concern and Confrontation about Constitutional Principles

Many different kinds of Egyptian political groups are worried about the so called "constitutional principles document." The document was proposed by Deputy Prime Minister Ali al-Selmy around the first of November, 2011.

The document creates a constitutional drafting committee comprised of 100 members, of whom 80 are outside Parliament, and 20 are from parties inside parliament, with a maximum of five members for each party. The SCAF, presumably, will select the 80 members outside parliament.

This document grants the SCAF the sole right to discuss the military's budget. The SCAF could also review all matters related to the military, and approve legislation related to the military. These items do not sound very democratic. A previous post discusses this. Governance, Accountability and Stakeholders The head of the Egyptian Organization for Human Rights, Hafez Abu Seada, walked out of the meeting on the document, which he says eviscerates parliament.

That being said, the document states that Egypt is a democratic civil state, that Islam is the official religion, and Sharia the source of legislation. It gives the right to non-Muslims to follow their own creeds. 

The human rights groups are not the only ones who do not like the document. The Islamists believe that it is an attempt to weaken their influence, and have called for a million-man march against the document on Friday, November 18th. The Islamists dislike the reference to Non-Muslim creeds. They say there is a US project behind the document.

Originally, secularists wanted a supra-constitutional document to ensure a secular nation, but the SCAF has cleverly subverted this ploy, turning it into a device to ensure the role of the military. Mohamed ElBaradei calls the document "distorted" and has expressed concerns regarding the power it gives the military. According to Al Masry Al Youm Mohamed Hamed, of the Free Egyptians party is more comfortable with the strong military role, than with a religious Islamist state.

The Freedom and Justice newspaper notes its strong opposition to the document. Some papers report that the Salafis and the Muslim Brotherhood are coordinating candidate nominations ahead of the parliamentary elections, however the Freedom and Justice party has denied this.

Civil society organizations have until November 19, 2011 to apply for permits to monitor the elections. The extension came from a request by the National Council for Human Rights.

Sources:
"Officials Extend Deadline for Election Monitor Applications," November 9, 2011, Al Masry Al Youm
"Nour party coordinates election strategy with Muslim Brotherhood," November 9, 2011, Al Masry Al Youm
"Campaign tensions escalate," November 10, 2011, Al Masry Al Youm 
"Islamists plan 18 November protests against super constitutional principles," November 7, 2011, Al Masry Al Youm.
Noha El-Hennawy, "Supra-constitutional debate heats up again," November 3, 2011 Al Masry Al Youm
"Constitutional principles document gives military special status," November 1, 2011, Al Masry Al Youm

Discrimination, Censorship and Torture

Activist blogger Alaa Abd El-Fattah (Photo: Masry25.blogspot.com)

We are all Essam Atta today.

Essam Atta, 24, has apparently been tortured to death at Cairo's Tora prison. He was a victim of flooding his body with water through his mouth and anus. His family received calls from other inmates about the torture. Atta was being punished for smuggling a mobile phone SIM card into his cell. He had been tried by a military court on February 25th in relation to illegally occupying an apartment, and sentenced to two years. His family says he was simply nearby a scuffle at the time of his arrest.

Egyptian Prison Guards Accused of Torture Death
Latest alleged torture death in Egypt prompts public outcry against SCAF

It is not an easy time to be a journalist or a blogger in Egypt. In my view, the SCAF seems to have a consistent, and purposeful policy of harassing, intimidating, and arresting journalists and bloggers who criticize their regime.

Activists Alaa Seif Abd El-Fattah and Bahaa Saber were questioned at the offices of the military prosecution this morning, Sunday on charges of instigating the Maspero clashes. Abd El-Fattah runs the political blog Manalaa. He is one of Egypt's most famous bloggers. Human rights activist Mona Seif says that military prosecutors claim to possess video footage proving that Seif and Saber (rather implausibly) had incited protesters to commit violent attacks against army personnel during the Maspero clashes.

Here is a good post by fellow blogger Abdu Rahman that links the Maspero clashes with the deaths of Atta and the imprisonment of Alaa and Bahaa.

Pictures of the Dead Continue to Haunt Us

According to Al Ahram and Al Masry, around 12,000 civilians have been tried before military courts since February 11, 2011.

The military prosecutor also summoned a journalist, Mahmoud Al-Daba, who writes for the independent weekly Sawt al-Omma, for criticizing irregularities in the appointment of lecturers at Al Azhar University. The weekly magazine was confiscated in September after criticizing Egypt's General Intelligence Services. The Editor in Chief of the paper has rejected the summons. Three journalists Hossam el-Hamalawy, Reem Maged, and Nabil Shraf al-Din were summoned to appear before military judges for criticisms of the SCAF.

Meanwhile, detained blogger Maikel Nabil has been cleared of mental illness by a panel at Abbasiya Mental Hospital. He has been returned to a military prison in northern Cairo.  Nabil was sentenced to three years in military prison for writing a blog called "The people and the army were never one hand." Ironically, as the SCAF becomes more and more ruthless against civilians, the title of Nabil's blog appears to be increasingly correct.

Journalist summoned by military prosecutor

Detained Blogger Returns to Military Prison

Finally, in the wake of the Maspero tragedy, the European Parliament in Strasbourg passed a draft resolution accusing the Egyptian and Syrian governments of persecuting their Christian minorities. Some 10,000 Coptic Christians have left Egypt since March, 2011. 

Egyptian Election Update, October 18, 2011

On Wednesday October 12, 2011, election committees nationwide began accepting nomination applications for Egypt's November 28th Parliamentary elections.

Many observers believe that the MB's Freedom and Justice party is extremely prepared for these elections organizationally and politically.

Meanwhile, papers reported that some political forces are considering boycotting the elections. The SCAF has announced that two thirds of parliamentary seats will be allocated to list based candidacies, and one third to the single winner system. Political parties have expressed  concerns that the single-winner system favors remnants of the NDP.

Meanwhile, confrontations between the Salafis and the MB are escalating. There are two major coalitions. The MB Freedom and Justice party is a member of the Democratic Alliance. A recently formed coalition of Salafi parties includes the Jama'a al-Islamiya party. The Salafis are ultraconservative Islamists, and have left the Democratic Alliance to form their own coalition. ("Confrontation Escalates between Brotherhood and Salafis," Al Masry Al Youm, October 17, 2011) The President of the Omma al-Gadid Party filed two lawsuits against the Democratic Alliance and the MB's Freedom and Justice Party. He accused them of stacking the list with their candidates, while underrepresenting the 18 alliance member parties.

The Military and Maspero

The smoky haze created by the social fire called the Maspero tragedy still blankets Egypt.

As I have reported in earlier posts, deadly clashes between the military, unarmed Coptic Christian protesters, and thugs left at least 26 dead, and more than 300 injured last week. The SCAF has promised to form a fact-finding committee. The clashes were some of the worst violence the country has seen since the January 25th Revolution. ("Egypt Army seeks probe into Cairo clashes," AlJazeera.net, October 11, 2011) 

International rights groups condemned the Maspero violence, including the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom, Human Rights Watch, and the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Some have called on the US to withhold military aid to Egypt. Military aid to Egypt may be worth as much as 1.3 billion dollars. US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton spoke on the phone with Minister of Foreign Affairs Amr Mohamed to offer condolences to the victims of the Maspero violence. ("US rights groups slam Egypt's military for Maspero violence, Al Masry al Youm, October, 12, 2011)

The Egyptian military denied charges that the military used live ammunition on protesters, and also denied that army vehicles crushed demonstrators under their wheels. (Amirah Ibrahim, "We did not Kill protesters," Al Ahram Weekly, Week of October 16, 2011) Members of the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces denied at a press conference that soldiers used weapons or force during the protest. (Rana Khazbak, "Military denies use of forces, accuses protesters of armed violence in Maspero, Al Masry Al Youm, October, 12, 2011)

However, online videos, as well as credible journalists present at the scene give credence to these allegations. ("Egypt's Army Defends Actions in Protest Crackdown," Al Masry Al Youm, October 12, 2011) General Mahmoud Hegazy, a member of the SCAF asserts that the armed forces "would never and have never opened fire on the people." (Ibid) The Army pins the blame for inciting violence on foreign elements.The SCAF has released its own videos showing individuals attacking soldiers with stones and a sword. (Al Ahram)

Major General Adel Emara claims that tear gas was used for riot control. He claimed that a soldier was driving an armored vehicle to disperse the crowd, when the vehicle was set on fire. He claims the driver was badly injured. (Khazbak,"Military denies use of force") Initial hospital reports show that most victims were killed by gunfire, or by being crushed by military vehicles. Emara accused the protesters of possessing firearms and antagonizing the armed forces. (Ibid.) He showed a video of protesters setting civilian cars on fire, and claimed that the priest was inciting people to violence. He called soldiers involved in the incident "martyrs."

According to a Reuters report on October 11, 2011,  the SCAF is increasingly viewed as a new autocrat, borrowing a page from Mubarak's handbook. Christians and Muslims alike, reports reuters, say that the army's reaction during the Maspero event was as brutal as any of Mubarak's tactics. The Egyptian citizenry is increasingly impatient with Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, 75, the leader of the SCAF and a veteran of the 73 war against Israel.

Al Masry Al Youm, Egypt's most respected independent newspaper, condemned the military's actions in the Maspero tragedy. (Al Masry Editorial, "The military has gone too far, Al Masry al youm, October 11, 2011) They state a peaceful protest was met with excessive force by the military and the police. They urge that all those responsible for the violence be held accountable. The paper called for an elected government as soon as possible.

Amr Hamzawy, an activist and political force, and also a faculty member in my department at AUC, stated that " the partnership between the authorities, . . . the SCAF, the cabinet, and the citizens, is over. "("With Clashes, Egyptians Lose Trust in Military Ruler," Al Masry Al Youm, October 11, 2011) The New York Times reports that confidence in the SCAF reached a "breaking point" when the military tried to place blame for the deaths on the Coptic protesters, and denied the use of live ammunition. David Kirkpatrick, "Egypt's Military Expands Power, Raising Alarms." The New York Times, October 14, 2011)

As long as no presidential election is held, reports Reuters, executive power will remain in the hands of the military. The times quotes Maj. Gen Mahmoud Hegazy as saying the military will stay in power until Egypt has a president. Since no timetable has yet been set for presidential elections, this could mean that the SCAF stays in power well into 2013. (Ibid)

The Muslim Brotherhood blames remnants of the NDP, the party of Mubarak--now disbanded--for the violence in Maspero. MB Supreme Guide Mohamed Badie says that NDP members had threatened to set "Egypt on fire," if they were banned from political activity. He recommended an elected parliament, and an Ombudsman. (DPA, "Brotherhood supreme guide: NDP remnants behind Maspero bloodshed," Al Masry Al Youm, October 12, 2011)

The Daily News Egypt reports that Egyptians are worried, because the Army draws broadly from the national population. The idea that the military would attack civilians has thrown them into "shocked confusion."Sarah El-Deeb, "Stunned by bloodshed, Egyptians torn over army," Daily News Egypt, October 17, 2011). Sheik Osama raised an Orthodox Cross among mourners to show his support for Christian victims at a vigil Thursday. One woman, whose fiance was killed, said a military police officer kicked her fiance's corpse and hit him and called her "an infidel." (Ibid)

Collective insanity in the aftermath of Maspero

According to Rana Khazbak of Al Masry Al Youm, members of the SCAF denied at a press conference today that soldiers used weapons or force during the Maspero clashes. SCAF general Emara claims that only tear gas was used. Major General Mahmoud Hegazy claims that soldiers were killed with bullets and gunshots, but the SCAF has not announced the names or numbers of military casualties.

Al Jazeera reports that the SCAF states the clashes were the result of "some to destroy the pillars of the state and sow chaos." I find Al Jazeera's reporting on this uncharacteristically weak. They do not mention that protesters were run over by tanks, or fired on by the military. They write that

"the Copts say they were marching peacefully when thugs attacked them, drawing in the military police who used what activists described as unnecessary force." 

Why is this usually reliable news source soft pedaling this crucial story?

Hazem El-Beblawi, the deputy prime minister and finance minister tendered his resignation over the clashes.  In another instance of collective insanity, the SCAF has rejected his resignation. Beblawi has told Reuters that he has not withdrawn his resignation, and he still wishes to resign.

The military's refusal to accept El-Beblawi's resignation, and their denial that the army used force are both symptoms of a type of collective insanity gripping the nation. The events were widely captured on film. Yet the Egyptian Army is claiming that the armored vehicle drove into a crowd when protesters set it on fire. Yet, this did not, in fact, occur.

Human rights lawyer Khaled Ali has brought in forensic doctors to the Coptic Hospital. Their reports show that the dead were killed by live ammunition or by being crushed by army vehicles. Amnesty International pins blame for the carnage on the military.

Maspiro: The Aftermath

Mourners at Coptic Funeral. Photo Credit: Sarah Carr

 Well folks,

We are all in mourning here in Cairo. Everyone is in tears. I am reaching out to all of my Copt friends. I just cannot believe that the military fired on, and ran over, unarmed civilians. Regardless of religion, this is very difficult to stomach.

One of my colleagues suggested that the military is actually using the Islamists. That had not occurred to me, but that makes sense in a way. If the country is wracked by sectarian violence, the elections will be derailed, and the military retains power. Another colleague, who is a devout Muslim, places blame squarely on the head of Field Marshall Tantawi, head of the SCAF. 

Regardless of religion, the goal here is DEMOCRACY. Do not get distracted. Keep your eyes on the prize. We need to stay focused on peaceful, free and fair elections for all Egyptians, Sufi, Shia, Sunni, Copt, Bahai and secularists.

Here is the Arabist's take on it. Maspero and Sectarianism in Egypt. 

Here is journalist Sarah Carr's powerful eyewitness account. Marching from Shubra to Deaths at Maspero.

On to the news.

According to the Arabic edition of Al Masry Al Youm, Egyptians demonstrated in Aswan, Alexandria, Ismailia, Qena, Fayoum, and Assiut. Islamic groups held demonstrations in Aswan "condemning Coptic attacks on military personnel." Meanwhile, security forces strengthened their presence around churches to avoid further clashes. ("Egyptians demonstrate in wake of Maspero violence," Al Masry Al Youm, October, 10, 2011)

Umm, is it just me, but why do people believe that the Copts attacked the Army. It just does not make sense from a strictly logical standpoint. Just a little bit of gallows humour here: what are the Copts going to do, fight the Army with giant crosses? But seriously, it is pretty implausible that the Copts attacked the Army. I do not buy it. Many Muslims realize that these clashes represent incitement to sectarian strife, which is ultimately destabilizing.

According to Al Masry Al Youm, political party leaders and activists met Monday and called for an immediate transfer of power to civilian authorities. Political leaders also criticized the state run media's provocative coverage of Sunday night's violence. Leaders in attendance included Naguib Sawiris (Free Egyptians), Amin Iskander (Nasserist Karama Party), former finance minister Samir Radwan, and Hossam Eissa. 

Amr Moussa stated "We as Egyptians are facing a problem. It's not a Coptic and Muslim Problem. It is not a military or civilian problem, but it is a problem in Egypt's flawed society and inter-relations." Amr Moussa is a presidential candidate and a former foreign minister under Mubarak.

Okay, overall that is a good statement. However, I disagree with him on one issue. If the military fires on civilians, that is a military and civilian problem in my book. Call me crazy. . . .Anyway, Moussa lost my support when he stressed the importance of "ruling with an iron fist in order to protect the country from looming chaos." Sounds like he is on the SCAF payroll to me. . . .

Many leaders present criticized the SCAF's rule, and blamed them for their role in Sunday night's events. Those critical of the SCAF included Abdel Gelili Mostafa, leader of the National Association for Change, Mohamed ElBaradei, Ayman Nour, leader of the liberal New Ghad party, Mohamed Abul Ghar, president of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party, and female presidential hopeful Bothaina Kamel.The leaders also criticized state TV's coverage of the incidents, stating that this coverage was inciting sectarian violence. (Rana Khazbak, "Political Forces Slam Ruling Military Council for Attack on Copts," Al Masry Al Youm, October 11, 2011)

Egypt's state run media, which whitewashed the Revolution, has been harshly criticized in the wake of the Maspiro massacre. Minister of Information Osama Haikal urged the media to deal "wisely" with the clashes in their coverage. Maspiro (or Maspero) is the site of the Egyptian television, as well as the site of numerous protests. On State Run Channel One, Rasha Magdy said that Coptic protesters had been attacking soldiers and ended her show with a call for Egyptian citizens to protect the military. Many view her call as an incitement to sectarian violence.  Many media personalities who work in state television have distanced themselves from the official coverage of the incident. The main message of the state run news (the state run paper is Al Ahram) is that conspiracies are underway to arouse conflicts between the armed forces and the people. (Mai Elwakil, "State Media Coverage of Maspero violence raises tempers," Al Masry Al Youm, October 11, 2011)

According to Ahmed Zaki Osman, some eyewitnesses claim the military threw the bodies of dead protesters into the Nile during Sunday night's clashes. These reports are unverified. (Ahmed Zaki Osman, "Eye-witnesses claim military threw protesters bodies into the Nile," Al Masry Al Youm, October 11, 2011) 

A Guest Blogger Comments on Maspiro: The Massacre of Christians in Cairo

Photo Credit: L'Indro

Dear friends,

This post was written by my teaching assistant. His name is John Ehab. He is a Copt, a journalist, an activist, and a masters student at AUC. It was published in an Italian newspaper. If you read Italian, check it out here. Un Esercito Contro I Copti, L'Indro.

Here it is in English.

After a deadly evening in Cairo Sunday night, families gathered to bid farewell to the 24 victims in a crowded mass funeral. The ceremony took place in Cairo’s central Coptic Cathedral in the presence of thousands of family members, supporters, activists and politicians. The killings took place after hundreds of Copts marched to protest the destruction of a church early last week in Aswan, which has not been resolved by the state.

Eyewitness accounts say that they were showered with live ammunition by members of the Egyptian armed forces. Witnesses added that protestors were literally bulldozed by Armored Personnel Carriers(APC), leaving behind a number of casualties. The Coptic Church synod, the highest council of the Coptic Church in Egypt, issued a statement that was read at the funeral assuring that violence had come from the side of the Armed Forces, not from the Copts. “We confirm that violence, with all its forms, was not used (by the protestors).” The statement also expressed that “Copts feel that the problems are reoccurring continuously without punishing the perpetrators”. The church called for three days of fasting and prayer to show that, for the Christians in Egypt, their only hope is to turn to God.

Many analysts have pointed out that the church’s statement reflects a lack of hope in the state. “You can read between the lines that the church no longer trusts those who run the state in Egypt, whether from the Security Council of Armed Forces , or the Cabinet,” said Ahmed Zaki Osman, a reporter familiar with Coptic issues. “The Christians simply have no hope in the state to bring them their rights anymore.”

One of those who attended the funeral, Zachariah Adly, who had also participated in the march the night before described his experiences to L’indro. Adly, a truck driver, said that the march had started in the primarily Christian area of Shobra, and continued several kilometers to the area of the state run TV, known as Maspiro in central Cairo.

“On the way people started stoning us from a bridge, until we reached the street leading toward the state TV building. Armed forces started shooting directly in the air and then began aiming at us. A few minutes after we saw their tanks coming towards us quickly to disperse the crowd.” Adly had to jump over a car onto the sidewalk to keep from being run over by the rushing vehicles.

Adly pointed out that the violence had come from the armed military forces, rather than civilians or even the security police. “In the same spot there were tens of riot police standing by and there were no clashes with them.” 

That afternoon state TV, the mouthpiece of the Egyptian army, had announced that the army was calling for “honest citizens” to go to the streets to help protect security forces from the Christian protestors.

Witnesses who were at the Coptic hospital to donate blood for the victims told L’indro that thugs surrounded the hospital and started attacking the families of the victims late at night.

Initially, the state-run TV reported that 3 soldiers had been killed by Copts during the riots, without mentioning any civilian deaths. However, the SCAF never made an announcement to confirm or deny this report. Many activists began to challenge this claim.

Doctor Aida Seif El-Dawla explained to L’indro, “even the state-run media was unable to fabricate any photograph of Copts carrying weapons as they have done in the past.” She explained that usually if any member of the army died, the state-run news would air extensive coverage including details about him and his family in order to gain the sympathy of the public. In this case there was none of that.

Not only the national media, but other sources including Al-Jazira issued reports accusing “the Coptic youth” of instigating the violence. However, reports on the ground show otherwise. According to Seif El-Dawla, the founder of Al-Nadim Center for the rehabilitation of victims of torture, “it is very clear that the army is responsible. They are the ones that carry arms, and they are responsible for this massacre. The army took advantage of widespread prejudice toward the Copts to defend their behavior.” 

The Coptic problem is one of the most vulnerable issues that has the potential to divide Egyptians, especially with the recent increase in Islamic fundamentalism.

Al-Nadim was among the independent human rights organizations in attendance at the Prosecutor General’s autopsy of the victims. Doctor Magda Adly, manager of the Al-Nadim Center, attended 7 out of 17 of the autopsies that took place at the Coptic Hospital in central Cairo. Four other bodies were buried earlier in the day without autopsies, and another five were reported to be in other hospitals.

Two of the seven, Adly reports, died by bullets, while the other five had been crushed by military vehicles with multiple fractions throughout their bodies. This confirms what can be seen in videos posted on YouTube of the APCs rushing protestors.

The decision to perform the autopsies came 20 hours after the deaths, a procedure which is normally done as soon as possible to optimize the results. The former director of the forensic medical unit was fired back in March due to similar delays in investigating the deaths of protestors from the January 25 revolution.

“Field Marshal Tantawi should face trial like Mubarak,” Zachariah Adly believes. “Demonstrators have torched a police station and stormed the Israeli embassy, and no one killed them like what happened with us.”

Happy Armed Forces Day

Today is Armed Forces Day in Egypt. It is a national holiday. The SCAF, using its Facebook page,  has invited the Egyptian public to celebrate the 38th Anniversary of the October war in various public spaces in Cairo. The anniversary celebrates Egypt's military victories against Israel in the 1973 October War. Strikes me as rather Soviet. Also the focus on opposing Israel tends to distract people from the real problems at home.
 
Personally, I do not think there is very much to be happy about with regard to the Egyptian Armed Forces. As the eloquent protester in Tahrir has put it, we have traded one dictatorial government for another. Mubarak is gone, but Egypt is currently ruled by a military junta. The transition is going very slowly, and there are fears that there will not be a democratic transition at all. It is good news that we have a firm date for upcoming People's Assembly elections. However, the presidential elections are still far off, and the SCAF does not want to allow the parliament to have the power to review the military budget. Such a restriction would eviscerate parliament's power of the purse, and keep Egypt from being a true democracy.

There may be a massive protest tomorrow to demand a timetable for handing over power from SCAF to an elected civilian authority. The days when the people and the army were one hand seem far away . . .As the Beatles sang, Yesterday, all my troubles seemed so far away, now they look as if they're here to stay . . . sigh . . .

Regardless, my favorite newspaper Al Masry Al Youm reports that six presidential hopefuls have prepared a potential timetable for the transfer of power to an elected civilian president by April 15, 2012. This timetable intends to shorten the transitional period, which appears to be harming Egypt's economy. Indeed, the Minister of Manpower and Immigration, Ahmed al-Borai stated on Wednesday that Egypt is on the brink of bankruptcy. He cautioned Egyptian workers against "excessive demands."

The presidential candidates wish to submit their candidacy papers two weeks after the Shura council elections conclude. The period for presidential campaigning would run from February 15th to the end of March. The elections would begin on April 1, with runoffs on April 10, 2012. This accelerated timetable is in response to a constitutional declaration issued by the SCAF on September 25th stating that presidential elections will be held at the end of 2012, or the start of 2013.

Meanwhile, Noha El-Hennawy reports that some worry the generals may be eyeing the presidency. Under the military's plan, the generals will remain in charge until the end of 2012 at the earliest. This contradicts their initial pledges, which were that the SCAF would return to the barracks six months after presidential and parliamentary elections. The plan has changed repeatedly. Many fear the military is stretching the transitional period to prepare the ground for a general to run for president.

Ruling Council's proposed timetable ignites fears of a military president

In further political woes, Sarah Carr reports that my favorite Egyptian party, the SDP is riven by divisions. I cannot believe that they signed a document last Saturday in support of the SCAF! What is going on people? I am really feeling shocked and dissappointed. Mohamed Abul Ghar, ESDP's leaders said he left the meeting early and found that a paragraph had been inserted into the statement saying "the signatory parties ...declare their complete support for SCAF and recognize the role SCAF has played in protecting the revolution and transferring power to the people." Abul Ghar disavows this statement.

Egyptian Social Democratic Party Divided over military council statement

Political Parties Divided after some sign statement in support of military council 

Well folks, things are not going that well. Prayers for the Egyptian people. 

Governance, Accountability and Stakeholders in Egypt

This semester I am teaching a class at the American University in Cairo called "Governance, Accountability, and Stakeholder Negotiation. It is a masters level class in public policy. It is a lot of fun, and we have been doing a lot of reading on how to improve governance in the Middle East and Africa. For example, we have read the Ibrahim Index as well as the World Bank MENA governance News and Notes.

This week, we were very lucky to have a special guest. Dr. Samer Soliman came and spoke to our class. He is the author of an important book just published by Stanford University Press. The book is titled The Autumn of Dictatorship: Fiscal Crisis and Political Change Under Mubarak.  In this book, Dr. Soliman evaluates the Egyptian budget to get lessons about allocation patterns, and the character of the authoritarian Egyptian state.

Here are some of his comments (paraphrased) on governance and accountability.

Accountability

The main issue of the Army is the budget. The second issue is that the Army has an economic empire. The military empire is off budget. If you examine the details of the Egyptian budget, you will not see it, but the evidence is all around us. One concern for the transition is that the Egyptian military is trying to prevent the new president from having power over the budget. 

It will likely take a while to move the military to its proper place in society. In Spain, the transition to democracy took 15 years. Currently in Egypt, we are operating under an interim constitution. At the moment, there is no article in the constitution that has a popular monitoring of the budget.  

We need an army, and we need a state. There has actually been a long term weakening of the Army since Sadat. The Nasser regime was really a military regime. This is less true today. In Iraq under Saddam, there was no distance at all between the regime and the state. This is also true of Syria today. In Egypt, there is some distance. The military is not divided along sectarian lines, like the Syrian military. It is important to get the military budget into the state budget. Right now, there is a lack of civilian control of the budget. 

Taxation plays an important role in accountability. Taxation in Egypt is currently corrupt and inefficient. Democracy facilitates the task of taxation because it enhances popular legitimacy. We also need progressive taxation. 


Stakeholders


With regard to stakeholders under the Mubarak Regime, there were no real political parties. There were just pressure groups. The opposition parties had no chance to rule. New political parties are emerging. In the future, we will have real political parties in Egypt. Syndicates will be much more important. There was no real syndicate life under the old regime. The syndicates can play an important role as an instrument of bargaining and problem solving. Many social groups in Egypt do not have real power. The Egyptian diaspora is important. Civil society will be more important in the new period. The SCAF is pushing the diaspora aside because they are dangerous. They are a huge asset in terms of their money, their knowledge, and their connections. 


Elections

It is not correct that the SCAF will be appointing all 100 members of the task force to write the constitution. Rather, they will set the criteria of how people for the task force are selected. The parliamentary elections will be in November. Then, there will hopefully be presidential elections, although it is vague. The constitution should be drafted within 6 months after the presidential elections. There is no guarantee that the constitutional drafting will be finished in the transition period. 


Egyptian Social Democratic Party

The party I belong to is the SDP. It is objectively, the best party in Egypt, and you should join it. {laughter}. We respect the market economy, but we also believe in a welfare state, and we support social justice. Our party is based on the assumption that economic development needs to create opportunities for the poor, but still be based on the market. We want to give people the instruments and means to defend their rights. It is creative conciliation between the market, and social democracy.