The Ides of March

         Although there has been no shortage of depressing news with regards to politics in 2017, the release of the modern pharaoh  Hosni Mubarak on March 13 is some of the worst, in my view. Al Ahram put it better than I could have, noting 

"The former autocrat ruled Egypt from 1981 until a popular uprising ousted him on 11 February 2011."

In a somewhat incredulous statement, Mubarak's lawyer Farid al Deeb claims that his client owns no money or property outside of Egypt, and is now borrowing American President Donald Trump's phrase of "false news" in defense of his client. Meanwhile, amidst these denials, a Swiss bank states that they have frozen close to 500 million in Egyptian assets linked to the Mubarak family. 

          In 2012, relatively free elections ushered into power the Islamist leader, Mohammed Morsi’s administration, which was short lived as his leadership was deposed by General Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in 2013.  Since then, the Sisi administration has drafted draconian laws that prevented illegal protests, which was a strategic law to prevent any dissenting views hence increased the number of political arrests. The police made more recent arrests of Muslim Brotherhood militia personnel who made several attacks on the police and army in Cairo through exchange of fire leading to the death of a civilian. In good news, the Egyptian Supreme Court has declared portions of the controversial protest law unconstitutional. 

            The New York Times piece on the prominent youth leader (Ahmed Maher) during the 2011 uprising, explains how Egyptian judges used draconian laws to find him guilty of illegal demonstration and ‘thuggery.'  Maher was sentenced to three years in the Tora Prison, which is a notorious complex housing political prisoners and criminals. Maher is still monitored closely by the police because the government views his influence over social media as "a terroristic threat". As a result, he spends 12 out of 24 hours of each day with the police to ensure that he is not inciting any dissenting views to topple the new administration as well. 

         France has been eyeing Egypt as a strategic partner in to become a major military force in the region. I thought Egypt was already a huge military force in the region. Egypt has long been an ally of USA and receives over a billion a year in military aid from the US.  

Indeed, the US provided $6.5 billion in military assistance to Cairo between 2011 and 2015.  As a result, President Trump is expected to visit Egypt from April 1 to 4 as a follow-up of their 23 January 2017 phone conversation to discuss ways to increase bi-lateral relations. Let's hope they do not trade notes on how to crush dissent . . . .

WMB 

Huge thanks to my wonderful graduate assistant Shem Ngwira in helping me put together this piece. 

Mubarak's Rise and Fall

They say that if you are going to commit a crime, you should commit a big one, like the Savings and Loan scandal, or the Wall Street Credit default swap debacle, or in the case of former Egyptian President Mubarak, perhaps, loot a country for a generation. 

In the run up to the verdict, the main response of Egyptians was a big yawn. 

The Washington Post reported that  the "trial of the century" for Egypt has largely dropped from people's attention, partly because of its length, and partly because of the massive protests that began in June 2013, during the retrial. After the protests against the domination of Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood that brought to his ouster, TV and newspaper dropped their criticism of Mubarak's old regime and shifted the blame for the violence on Islamists and foreign conspirators. Issandr al-Amrani, North Africa Project Director at International Crisis Group declared that "there's been a steady narrative to say 2011 wasn't a real revolution, the real revolution was June 30, 2013".  (Mubarak verdict due, but Egyptians' interest wanes by Associated Pess, The Washington Post, November 27, 2014) 

But Mubarak got off in any event. The New York Times reported today that

" An Egyptian court dropped all remaining charges against former President Hosni Mubarak on Saturday, raising the possibility that he could go free for the first time since being removed from office in the 2011 uprising that defined the Arab Spring revolt." (Kirkpatrick and Thomas, 11.29.2014 NYT) 

Most bizarrely, Mubarak was acquitted of corruption charges, which seemed to be a slam dunk. It makes one wonder. Here are two reasons why. First, the judiciary is widely rumored to be full of "feloul" Mubarak allies. Second, the government is currently run by a new military-backed strongman, President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi. Mubarak is from the military, so it is no surprise that they are taking care of business. 

This verdict seems to bode well for another not-very-well liked Egyptian President, Mohamed Morsi. 

A committee was appointed by Egypt's interim president Adly Mansour to investigate the violence after Morsi's ouster. The committee will present a final report divided into five parts, and it will cover 11 files. The most important part, entitled "Gatherings and sit-ins in public squares and roads in Egypt," will document events in support of Morsi during which several supporters were killed. Marawan announced: "The report will give a complete list of the names of the victims from the dispersals and where and how they were killed". He also announced that "the report tried to be as neutral as possible". (Committee to announce report on Egypt's post-Morsi violence on Wednesday by Gamal Essam El-Din, Ahram Online, November 24, 2014)

Given the Mubarak verdict, one can expect that impunity will be the order of the day, although you never know. 

Women may have been a major beneficiary of the Arab Spring, along with some release of restrictions on the press. 

In Egypt, more than 90 percent of women are estimated to have undergone female genital mutilation (FGM), although the practice, also known as "circumcision", has been penalized in 2008. Some still  still consider whether to circumcise their daughters or not, because without it she could be "sexually voracious", and this could be "dangerous for her". The tradition is practiced because "it is seen as needed for cleanliness or to prevent a girl's sexual desire from running out of control". In fact, a widely used Egyptian Arabic term for it translates as "purification". In southern Egypt, Manal Fawzy runs the Assiut Childhood and Development Organization, a UNICEF partner organization that "takes a community approach to getting people to abandon the practice". She and her colleagues go from village to village to talk to the residents, but also to religious leaders and doctors, encouraging the latters and the families to speak publically about their rejection of the tradition. (Egypt making slow progress on genital mutilation by Associated Press, The Washington Post, November 25, 2014)

Many thanks to my fabulous GA, Paola Cavallari, for doing much of the research that helps me stay on top of things.

WMB 

Wrap up of August, 2014, events in Egypt

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On the Rab'a Massacre

In a 188-page report entitled "All According to Plan: The Rab'a Massacre and Mass Killings of Protesters in Egypt", Human Rights Watch has accused the Egyptian police and army of crimes against humanity committed during at least 6 demonstrations between July 5 and August 17, 2014. The report is the result of interviews to more than two hundred witnesses, visits to the protest sites right after the attacks, and reviews of physical evidence, video footages, and statements by public officials. In particular, Kenneth Roth, executive director of Human Rights Watch, has declared that the Rab'a massacre of August 14, 2013, "was a violent crackdown planned at the highest level of the Egyptian government." Egyptian officials have tried to justify the massacre by claiming that the civilians were armed. Human Rights Watch documented the throwing of rocks and Molotov cocktails against the army forces, but it affirmed that the killing was disproportionate. In about 12 hours, 817 people were killed in what is considered "the biggest mass killing of civilians in modern Egyptian history." Moreover, the Interior Minister Mohamed Ibrahim declared that his forces found only 15 guns in the square. This massacre was not "the result of poor training or unexpected circumstances", but it had been premeditated because "the violent dispersal of the sit-in was thoroughly planned in advance". 

The main question surrounding the events in Rab'a is: "How do we explain the behavior of the Egyptian military on Tahrir in January 2011 and in Rab'a in 2013?" On one hand, in January 2011, the military at first stood by Mubarak, killing hundreds of people during the uprising. Then, a week into the rebellion, the army declared its refusal to raise its weapons against civilian protesters. On the other end, during the Rab'a massacre, the army coordinated closely with the Ministry of Defense, locking any possible way out of the Rab'a's square where people were gathered, using snipers to shoot on the crowd and bulldozers to clear the path for the gunmen. The operation was overseen by President al-Sisi, at the time "minister of defense, general commander of the armed forces, chair of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) and deputy prime minister for security affairs". 

Scholars have been studying and developing theories to explain these two different behaviors of the military forces, but it is hard to reach a conclusion examining one single regime crisis. "Future research [...] would do well to account for both" events. Finally, since those events took place, Egyptian authorities have engaged in several other measures to deprive citizens and political opponents of their basic human rights. No one has been held responsible for the massacres, although the government has created a committee to investigate the human right abuses since June 30, 2014. Human Rights Watch has asked the government to provide its perspective on the events, but it has not received any response yet. One year after the Rab'a massacre, not one of the officials who perpetrated the massacre has been held accountable for it. 

Other issues regarding democratization 

On a different note, in July 2014 the Egypt's regime announced the reduction of fuel subsidies. Although the announcement generated waves of anger among the poor, many of whom are still suffering from the turmoil undergoing in the nation since January 2011, the next day the lines at the gas station across the country seemed as normal as ever. After several weeks, gas stations recorded a shift in the preference of private drivers from the 92 unleaded gasoline to the 80 gasoline, the cheap one, and to natural gas. One reason for the lack of uprisings was the deployment of riot police at several gas stations and around main arteries of Cairo. Another reason is that many decided not to protest because they estimated the cost of an uprising to be higher than heeding the government's decisions, while wealthier citizens consider inflation a natural phenomenon, and thus see no reason to protest against it. A third reason is the intervention operated by the military to open three main traffic intersections, relieving the traffic jams suffered by the eastern part of Cairo. This operation had two main consequences: it increased the value of real estate in those areas, and it had positive effects on public transportation and taxi services, since the drivers don't have to take massive detours anymore, increasing their income. Finally, according to Hatem Zayed, an economic researcher, people accepted the recent economic measures because of the fear generated by the outcomes of recent protests, and because of how gradually inflation is happening. However, although President al-Sisi keeps promising mitigation policies, he is just maneuvering around the economy. Therefore, '"it's only a matter of time before people start protesting the economic distress; it is inevitable"'. 
  

Additionally, the Ministry of Interior has launched a government project aimed to relocate street vendors from downtown Cairo to Al-Torgoman. The project has the purpose of enforcing the sovereignty of the law in Egyptian streets, as well as to deal with traffic congestion, electicity theft, and violation of public property, as declared by Major General Abdel-Tawab. Street vendors have been protesting against the measure, stating that Al-Torgoman is a non-commercial area, and that they foresee huge material losses. Hussien, head of the street vendors syndicate, affirmed that the measure took them by surprise, and that they are willing to prove that the new location is non-commercial. They will sell their products  in Al-Torgoman for five days, and decide to stay if satisfied, or return downtown if not. 

Finally, prosecutor-General Hisham Barakat is leading an investigation into the administrators of the Facebook page "Popular Resistance Movement" because it allegedly "incites against state institutions and calls for assaulting army and police personnel". The police has arrested the page's administrator, a teacher living in Qalioubiya, for posting slogans of the Muslim Brotherhood, and they have confiscated his laptop. His brother has been arrested too. This investigation follows restrictive measures enforced by the Egyptian police after the Muslim Brotherhood was declared a terrorist organization after Islamist president Mohamed Morsi was ousted last summer. Since then, hundreds of his supporters and members of the Brotherhood have been killed and thousands have been put into jail. In January, the Interior ministry has declared the beginning of arrests of users and administrators of social media websites that incite violence against the police or citizens; dozens of Brotherhood members have been accused and arrested after the announcement.

Good news: Karima El-Serify, detained in Qanater prison since mid-April, has been released by the Cairo Criminal Court under "probation measures". Karima has been on hunger strike for 68 days, and this may be the main reason behind her release, according to one of her friends. Karima was arrested and charged in espionage cases along with other members of Morsy's presidential team. Moreover, as her mother has declared, her arrest has been a way "to put pressure on her father, Ayman Al-Serify" close associate of Morsy. Karima began her hunger strike after "prison guards ordered cellmates to beat her and her colleagues and steal their belongings". Hunger strike has been used as a protest tactic by several prisoners currently detained in Egypt.

~WMB

Many thanks to my Graduate Research Assistant, Paola Cavallari 

Egypt's elections 2014

Secretary of State Kerry, and my old boss, Nabil Fahmy, now Egyptian Foreign Minister.

Things do not look so good in Egypt. The country has strayed fairly far from the goals of the Revolution, in my opinion. I am really hoping to go to Egypt some time in June.

Egypt is becoming increasingly dependent on financial inflows from the Gulf. Gulf Inflows (Cargnegie Endowment). This is a problem for several reasons. Egypt has traditionally been a relatively secular, politically moderate state, with a strong Sunni heritage, but a tolerance for multi-culturalism. The Gulf states, by contrast, particularly the wealthy Saudi Arabia tend to observe Wahabiism. Wahabis are much stricter, much more puritanical, and much more missionary than mainline Sunnis. (Compare evangelicals to Methodists for example) This financial dependency could push Egypt into a more radical position culturally, and a much less tolerant position.

Egypt tentatively has scheduled presidential elections in May. The IMF, according to Carnegie, has bought into the "restoration of democracy" narrative postulated by the Egyptian government. Personally, I do not see how a coup by the military doth democracy make. Here is a good quote.

There is also historic precedent for dealing with Egypt regardless of its domestic political climate. The IMF dealt with former president Hosni Mubarak as compensation for Egyptian support for coalition forces during the First Gulf War, whose government by then had a less than optimal record on human rights, civil governance, and transparency. The g

eopolitical reasons for reengaging with Egypt today are equally profound. Despite public censure, western actors—notably the United States and European Union—by and large need Egypt to maintain pressure on armed Islamist groups in the Sinai and to remain a buffer against the larger destabilization of the region caused by the prolonged conflict in Syria. Western actors also want Egypt to not seek rival sponsors, such as Russia, whose recent arms agreement with Egypt buttresses speculation that Cairo is moving away from Washington.

Happy Monday. 

~WMB

Wangeci Bowman - Rest in Peace

Dear readers

I apologize for my extended absence. My sister, Wangeci Bowman, passed away of breast cancer on November 7, 2013 at age 43.

I had always hoped she would visit Egypt, but we never had the chance.

Rest in Peace.

~WMB

Egypt's State of Emergency Continues

According to the Daily News Egypt, The cabinet has approved the establishment of a fact-finding committee to investigate the violence occurring on June 30^th and subsequent weeks.  Egypt’s interim Prime Minister, Hazem al-Beblawi, explained that the state of emergency was extended due to security issues, and cited several acts of violence and terrorism. The cabinet has further stated that the Prosecutor General specifically carried out the startling number of arrests, and that those detained were charged with  criminal offenses. The interim cabinet has commissioned the National Council for Human Rights to collect and record data from the events that followed Morsi’s ouster, including several violent altercations.

There is growing unrest related to the extended state of emergency. The April 6 Youth Movement  called for a protest, scheduled in Talaat Harb Square in downtown Cairo on Monday evening. This is amid increasing calls for the release of what are perceived as random arrests and for stopping military trials for civilians.The Muslim Brotherhood has also issued statements condemning the extended state of emergency.

While the Presidential spokesman, Ihab Badawi, has stated that there was full support for the continuance of the state of emergency, several political figures have voiced concerns over a potential abuse of power, and human rights violations that may have occurred within this volatile timeframe. Interim President issued Presidential order 532 on Thursday stating that the state of emergency will continue for at least two months. The abolition of the law, which has been in force on and off since 1958, was one of the key demands of the 2011 Revolution. 

It remains unclear how the work of the National Council for Human Rights committee will impact this dialogue, however, their research, particularly the rehashing on several deadly clashes, may serve to further intensify this debate.

Another hot issue: Some of the latest in Egypt is related to the land dispute between Nile University and Zewail City for Science and Technology.  Former Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif gave a plot of land over to Nile University in 2006 that had had been designated for the Zewail City of Science and Technology project in 2000. After the January 25^th revolution, Prime Minister Essam Sharaf granted the land back to Zewail City  and moved Nile University over to Smart Village instead. However, the Nile University campus was already built in that space and ready for use. Nile University students have hosted sit-ins at the campus, demanding use of the facilities.  A short-term solution for what has been deemed "the Nile University crisis" has been rejected. The disputed land now hosts two hotly contested buildings. Nile students have not yet been granted access to the disputed buildings. Zewail City accepted 300 students into the contested buildings at the beginning of its first academic year on Sunday.

Many thanks to my wonderful GA, Neena. 

~WMB

The Egypt Independent Says Farewell in a blaze of Glory

Coming up on about a week now, it was announced throughout the world that Egypt’s main independent English language news source, Egypt Independent, was to stop publication. 

This loss is particularly painful for me. I wrote several editorials for the Egypt Independent, and it was an important location for me both physically and intellectually during the Revolution and beyond. I am heartbroken .. . . 

American news outlets such as New York Times and the Wallstreet Journal spoke of the media outlet positively, citing that as it’s name suggested, was the country’s only true independent voice that reflected the expression of the revolutionary voices (Stack, 2013). In the last four years, Stack explains, the staff chronicled the waning days of the Mubarak regime, the outbreak of revolution in their own country and across the Arab world, military rule and most recently the administration of the first democratically elected Islamist leader of Egypt, Mohamed Morsi. The staff, which has been notably critical of the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government, believes that it was shut down by the self-censorship of its sister paper Al-Masry Al-Youm (Habib, 2013). Investors of the paper and the sister company’s chairman, Abdel Moneim, cited financial difficulties for the reason of the closure and has not commented about the accusations that the closure was political. The Muslim Brotherhood also declined to comment on the situation (Habib, 2013). Egypt Independent is the second independent English-language publication to shut down in Egypt in the past year as The Daily News Egypt abruptly closed after a seven year run when investors also claimed unbearable financial losses (Stack, 2013).

On April 23, 2013 the latest edition of the paper, in fact it’s 50^th edition, was sent to the presses and Al-Marsy Al-Youm “pulled the plug”, which the outlets editor in chief Lina Attalah stated she believed it was due to the editions’ scathing critiques of not just the government, but criticism of the parent company’s management and self-censorship (Habib, 2013).  Since President Morsi has taken office, the prosecutor general has summoned several journalist on charges of “insulting” the president. The administration is accused of intimidating reporters and inciting violence against them (Habib, 2013). This is not the first major incident of censorship or confrontation between the two media companies. In late 2011, Egypt Independent then referred to as- “Al-Marsy Al-Youm English Edition” broke partially away from its then-parent company as its content was “squashed” for being too critical of the government. During this confrontation, Egypt Independent announced the break and expressed they felt the revolution was incomplete and the Muslim Brotherhood’s rule was increasingly heavy handed. Supporters of the newspaper expressed their dismay of the recent closing. “After the revolution there was a flood of people who expressed what they wanted…but we’re beginning to see that this change wasn’t real and that we were fooled,” said Habiba Effat, 22 year old from Cairo (Habib, 2013).  

In a short statement called “Egypt Independent 2009-2013” the news outlet explained that they were not going down without a fight and pushed their last issue online and in PDF format.  The explained that this issue continued their standards of critical journalism, discussing issues that reflected the county’s challenges as well as those facing Egyptian media.

“Four years after the birth of Egypt Independent, the management of Al-Masry Media Corporation has informed our editorial team that our print and online news operation is being shut down. Because we owe it to our readers, we decided to put together a closing edition, which would have been available on 25 April, to explain the conditions under which a strong voice of independent and progressive journalism in Egypt is being terminated. The management, however, withheld the printing of this edition. While the print house received the final proofs on 23 April, management ordered a last-minute stoppage after scrutinizing the issue’s content. In keeping with our practice of critical journalism, we use our final issue to reflect on the political and economic challenges facing Egyptian media, including in our own institution” (Egypt Independent, 2013)

The articles in the last edition were understandably full of anger but also reflection. The staff spoke about the vision of the paper that denoted a commitment to professionalism and civil rights. They explained they were trying to be more than a “mouth-piece” for the state and the political parties (Stack, 2013). Attalah and other Egypt Independent discussed the closure via social media. Attalah that she considered one of the key questions for professional journalists to be, “How do we become active mediators as opposed to silent vehicles of information?” (Stack, 2013). Attalah promised that her staff would continue their work in some new form and that their leaders had not seen the last of them.

More news on the shutdown

The Death of Egypt Independent  

Goodbye Al Mary Al Youm

Egypt Independent's 50th and Final Edition

Public Mourns Loss of Egypt Independent