Wrap up of August, 2014, events in Egypt

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On the Rab'a Massacre

In a 188-page report entitled "All According to Plan: The Rab'a Massacre and Mass Killings of Protesters in Egypt", Human Rights Watch has accused the Egyptian police and army of crimes against humanity committed during at least 6 demonstrations between July 5 and August 17, 2014. The report is the result of interviews to more than two hundred witnesses, visits to the protest sites right after the attacks, and reviews of physical evidence, video footages, and statements by public officials. In particular, Kenneth Roth, executive director of Human Rights Watch, has declared that the Rab'a massacre of August 14, 2013, "was a violent crackdown planned at the highest level of the Egyptian government." Egyptian officials have tried to justify the massacre by claiming that the civilians were armed. Human Rights Watch documented the throwing of rocks and Molotov cocktails against the army forces, but it affirmed that the killing was disproportionate. In about 12 hours, 817 people were killed in what is considered "the biggest mass killing of civilians in modern Egyptian history." Moreover, the Interior Minister Mohamed Ibrahim declared that his forces found only 15 guns in the square. This massacre was not "the result of poor training or unexpected circumstances", but it had been premeditated because "the violent dispersal of the sit-in was thoroughly planned in advance". 

The main question surrounding the events in Rab'a is: "How do we explain the behavior of the Egyptian military on Tahrir in January 2011 and in Rab'a in 2013?" On one hand, in January 2011, the military at first stood by Mubarak, killing hundreds of people during the uprising. Then, a week into the rebellion, the army declared its refusal to raise its weapons against civilian protesters. On the other end, during the Rab'a massacre, the army coordinated closely with the Ministry of Defense, locking any possible way out of the Rab'a's square where people were gathered, using snipers to shoot on the crowd and bulldozers to clear the path for the gunmen. The operation was overseen by President al-Sisi, at the time "minister of defense, general commander of the armed forces, chair of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) and deputy prime minister for security affairs". 

Scholars have been studying and developing theories to explain these two different behaviors of the military forces, but it is hard to reach a conclusion examining one single regime crisis. "Future research [...] would do well to account for both" events. Finally, since those events took place, Egyptian authorities have engaged in several other measures to deprive citizens and political opponents of their basic human rights. No one has been held responsible for the massacres, although the government has created a committee to investigate the human right abuses since June 30, 2014. Human Rights Watch has asked the government to provide its perspective on the events, but it has not received any response yet. One year after the Rab'a massacre, not one of the officials who perpetrated the massacre has been held accountable for it. 

Other issues regarding democratization 

On a different note, in July 2014 the Egypt's regime announced the reduction of fuel subsidies. Although the announcement generated waves of anger among the poor, many of whom are still suffering from the turmoil undergoing in the nation since January 2011, the next day the lines at the gas station across the country seemed as normal as ever. After several weeks, gas stations recorded a shift in the preference of private drivers from the 92 unleaded gasoline to the 80 gasoline, the cheap one, and to natural gas. One reason for the lack of uprisings was the deployment of riot police at several gas stations and around main arteries of Cairo. Another reason is that many decided not to protest because they estimated the cost of an uprising to be higher than heeding the government's decisions, while wealthier citizens consider inflation a natural phenomenon, and thus see no reason to protest against it. A third reason is the intervention operated by the military to open three main traffic intersections, relieving the traffic jams suffered by the eastern part of Cairo. This operation had two main consequences: it increased the value of real estate in those areas, and it had positive effects on public transportation and taxi services, since the drivers don't have to take massive detours anymore, increasing their income. Finally, according to Hatem Zayed, an economic researcher, people accepted the recent economic measures because of the fear generated by the outcomes of recent protests, and because of how gradually inflation is happening. However, although President al-Sisi keeps promising mitigation policies, he is just maneuvering around the economy. Therefore, '"it's only a matter of time before people start protesting the economic distress; it is inevitable"'. 
  

Additionally, the Ministry of Interior has launched a government project aimed to relocate street vendors from downtown Cairo to Al-Torgoman. The project has the purpose of enforcing the sovereignty of the law in Egyptian streets, as well as to deal with traffic congestion, electicity theft, and violation of public property, as declared by Major General Abdel-Tawab. Street vendors have been protesting against the measure, stating that Al-Torgoman is a non-commercial area, and that they foresee huge material losses. Hussien, head of the street vendors syndicate, affirmed that the measure took them by surprise, and that they are willing to prove that the new location is non-commercial. They will sell their products  in Al-Torgoman for five days, and decide to stay if satisfied, or return downtown if not. 

Finally, prosecutor-General Hisham Barakat is leading an investigation into the administrators of the Facebook page "Popular Resistance Movement" because it allegedly "incites against state institutions and calls for assaulting army and police personnel". The police has arrested the page's administrator, a teacher living in Qalioubiya, for posting slogans of the Muslim Brotherhood, and they have confiscated his laptop. His brother has been arrested too. This investigation follows restrictive measures enforced by the Egyptian police after the Muslim Brotherhood was declared a terrorist organization after Islamist president Mohamed Morsi was ousted last summer. Since then, hundreds of his supporters and members of the Brotherhood have been killed and thousands have been put into jail. In January, the Interior ministry has declared the beginning of arrests of users and administrators of social media websites that incite violence against the police or citizens; dozens of Brotherhood members have been accused and arrested after the announcement.

Good news: Karima El-Serify, detained in Qanater prison since mid-April, has been released by the Cairo Criminal Court under "probation measures". Karima has been on hunger strike for 68 days, and this may be the main reason behind her release, according to one of her friends. Karima was arrested and charged in espionage cases along with other members of Morsy's presidential team. Moreover, as her mother has declared, her arrest has been a way "to put pressure on her father, Ayman Al-Serify" close associate of Morsy. Karima began her hunger strike after "prison guards ordered cellmates to beat her and her colleagues and steal their belongings". Hunger strike has been used as a protest tactic by several prisoners currently detained in Egypt.

~WMB

Many thanks to my Graduate Research Assistant, Paola Cavallari 

The Morsi Maneuver Part 2: Tahrir revolts against massive power grab

Marchers arrive in Tahrir to protest the Constitution

Dear readers, 

I have been watching the unfolding events in the past days with some trepidation, but not that much surprise. 

Morsi  has issued a sweeping decree on November 22, 2012 expanding his powers.  Opponents are furious, arguing that his declaration has made all his decisions immune to judicial review and banned the courts from dissolving the upper house of parliament and an assembly writing the new constitution, both of which are dominated by Islamists. The decree also gave Morsi sweeping authority to stop any ‘‘threats’’ to the revolution, public order or state institutions. The powers would last until the constitution is approved and parliamentary elections are held, not likely before spring 2013.  Egyptians Protest Morsi (Boston Globe)

His supporters argue that he is protecting the Revolution  Morsi has split Egypt down the middle (BBC)   According to the BBC, his supporters state that he merely took unchecked power away from the judiciary - which is still full of personalities from the Mubarak era - until the constitution is done and there are systems in place to allow the country to move forward.

Of course, when Morsi was elected, many people feared that exactly such a power grab would happen. Morsi is a complicated character. On the one hand, he was educated in America, and even taught at Cal State Northridge and is quite learned. On the other hand, he was a member of the Guidance Office of the Muslim Brotherhood before that organization became legal after the Revolution.  Times Interview with Mohamed Morsi. Unfortunately, his rhetoric, that he wants a civil, constitutional state, is not in line with his current actions.

The crazy thing is that it is not even Friday, and all hell has broken out in Tahrir. The most astute analysis I have heard comes from my old boss at AUC Dr. J--- B----. She says that 

"At this point, almost any scenario could be built. Morsi may realize he has to prove himself and show the courage to confront his own side and rebalance the constituent assembly, in which case he could pull if off if he demands unanimity or a super-majority on every provision, to force them to reach consensus or take it out. 

Conversely, the MB could militarize and we could have green shirts jack-stepping around Tahrir. 

Or we could have massive unrest and economic collapse.

Or the military could come back if things get dicey. 

He has really painted himself into a corner. We'll have to wait and see if he knows something we don't -- about the Gaza situation or the IMF, or whatever -- but he risks having all hell break loose if there are any more unpleasant surprises.  Word is MB HQs in 7 governorates all over the country were burnt.  One of the students also told me that the police and the army were shooting at each other at the head of Road 90 last week."

My analysis is that if Morsi knows something we do not, he needs to convey it to the left, to regain their trust. He has shown strength and statesmanlike behavior toward the conflict in Gaza,  Talks begin in Cairo after Gaza Cease Fire (NYT) and in relations with Iran, but his inability to manage the domestic front in his own country could neutralize Egypt's effectiveness as a foreign affairs powerhouse.   

Most worrisome is Morsi's attempt to maintain the work of the Constituent Assembly. As I have noted in previous posts, from day one, the Constituent Assembly has been heavily Islamist. With only 7 women on the Assembly to begin with, the Assembly clearly did not represent the interests of a majority of Egyptians. I noted my discomfort with the opposition parties and the Christian parties pulling out. Strategically, they should have stayed in and fought for a better CA. Nonetheless, if Morsi has his way, the current CA, which is even more Islamist now than when it was initially convened, will be in charge of a new constitution that certainly does not reflect the secular, mult-religious, modern nation of the Egypt we know and love. 

This blog is called Democratizing the New Egypt.  Morsi's behavior is not democratic, and is made even worse by the fact that there is no parliament currently sitting. It is true that the judiciary needs reform, and feloul in the judiciary need to be routed, but concentrating all of the nation's power in the executive is not the correct tactic. 

There is a silver lining to all of this: my beloved secular opposition is getting its second wind. As reported by the Egypt Independent, 

For almost two years, civil and secular groups were constantly blamed for being disunited and unorganized, paving the way for Islamists to rise to power after Hosni Mubarak’s ouster.

That changed this week as opposition leaders, former presidential candidates, secular liberal and leftist parties, and even some figures previously labeled as feloul — or remnants of the former regime — united against President Mohamed Morsy’s constitutional declaration, through which he claimed sweeping powers for himself, and formed the National Salvation Front.  Civil Groups Pounce Into Public Space (EI)

As one protester quoted by the BBC (article above) pointed out, “It's unfortunate that my demands are still same - bread, freedom and social justice. If Morsi doesn't get it, well, we have seen this movie before and all know where this is going to end.”

Credits: Huge thanks to my awesome graduate assistant Jillian Underwood for assisting with research and keeping me organized!

Public Transport workers strike

Yesterday I made my weekly pilgrimage into downtown. I live in Rehab, which is part of Greater Cairo, but kind of a suburb out in the desert near the AUC campus. I enjoy getting into town and experiencing the urban life of one of the greatest cities in the world.

I came into town and had a lovely cocktail with an editor friend of mine, at Al Masry Al Youm and a journalist friend. We went to Estoril, at Talaat al Harb, which is one of the most atmospheric of Cairene venues.

Walking back to the car in the evening, the road was blocked by large buses with large banners hanging on the front of them. There were hundreds of workers sitting on the street, smoking, drinking coffee and eating Taamiya. Apparently, this was the public transport strike which I read about in the news this morning. The workers closed Qasr al Ainy street and said they would remain until the cabinet responded to their demands.

The workers are demanding higher salaries, and improved services. According to my guest lecturer, Dr. Samer Soliman, one of the issues plaguing the public sector in Egypt is the vast inequity in public pay. In some offices, employees earn millions of pounds a month. In other offices, employees earn a few hundred pounds for similar work. These issues must be resolved as the revolution progresses.

~WMB

Happy Anniversary Tahrir!

Well, the protest in Tahrir has been going strong for a week now. And furthermore, the Revolution has been going on for nearly six months. In fact, I arrived in Egypt on January 25th, and my birthday is on July 25th, and we are still revolutionizing.

Here are some links to read as we reflect on this momentous occasion. 

Egypt: Revolution in progress 
http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/empire/2011/07/20117146399103458.html

Egyptians voice frustrations in Tahrir Square 
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/20117159536363741.html
 
Egypt's military representative visits Tahrir, amidst protesters' fury
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/477842

Why the success of the 25 January revolution resonates beyond Egypt
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/476190

Police cleansing no substitute for reform, activists say
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/477081

Political parties support postponing parliamentary elections
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/node/477135

Egypt's military announces committee on constitutional principles to little fanfare http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/476779

Preparing for Protest

It sounds like there is going to be a really big protest tomorrow at Tahrir. Writing in Al Masry Al Youm English (almasryalyoum), Noha El Hennawy states that Friday, the 8th of July is going to attract thousands. Her article is linked above, but to paraphrase, people are frustrated with the SCAF. Many of the Revolution's demands went beyond simply replacing Mubarak. The people also asked for freedom, integrity and social justice in their slogans.

According to the Arabist, the Muslim Brotherhood is planning to participate in tomorrow's protests. In general, the MB, reports the Arabist, has shied away from protests. Yet Ursula Lindsey suggests that it is time for them to fall in line with the popular mood.

Well, I was just at Tahrir today, for a second interview with Abdel Ghaffr Shokr. On my way out of town, back to New Cairo, we got stuck in a severe traffic jam near Tahrir. I was actually stuck in traffic literally next to the roundabout, the Midan, for about thirty minutes, so I had plenty of time to observe.

Here is what I saw at about 3 in the afternoon on Thursday. The entire roundabout has been cordoned off by the protesters (I presume) with green and yellow plastic nylon ropes in a kind of makeshift fence of sorts. There are many tents on the square. Some are military style plain white canvas pup tents. Some are the pup tents with revolutionary slogans written on them in Arabic in black and red paint. Another popular style of tents are made out of large flags put together. The Libyan and Palestinian flag are popular choices, and one tent had a roof made out of the Chinese flag.

The square has both men and women on it. I saw a Nekabi wandering around making preparations. Many youth were in evidence, sporting Palestinian style red and black checkered headscarfs to mark themselves as revolutionaries. One tent had older men, around fifty, with younger men, around twenty, and some very small revolutionaries, around five years old asleep in a heap under the shade of the pup tent.

Banners are already up, as is a stage, and the Egyptian flag is everywhere. The square is a bit worse for the wear. It is clean, more or less, but the grass is quite trampled, and cigarette butts litter the ground.

My university has issued stern warnings.

·       Anyone planning to travel to areas in Egypt outside Cairo should cancel their travel.

·        When you travel inside Cairo, limit all movements to the most essential only, and plan alternative routes avoiding large gatherings.

·        Avoid all rallies because of a credible risk of localized unrest.

·        Exercise caution when passing by government buildings, police stations and military barracks.

·        Treat members of the security forces you encounter with patience and respect, and follow all instructions promptly. Carry photographic identification and a mobile phone.

·        As a reminder, please ensure that you have an adequate supply of food in your home in the event that services are interrupted.

·        Keep updated on the situation by following media reports.

Hold on to your hats, folks. This one could be big! I will be staying indoors with my three children myself.  WMB

What's Going On? Egypt Edition

I would like to take a moment to think about the relevance of Marvin Gaye's lyrics  to Libya and Egypt at this moment. Peace out. WMB


What's Going On
(M. Gaye, Renaldo 'Obie' Benson, Al Cleveland)
Tamla Records Original LP release: Jan. 1971
Album: What's Going On Deluxe Edition (2 disc)
Motown Record Co. 2001 LP MOTD 3404


Mother, mother
There's too many of you crying
Brother, brother, brother
There's far too many of you dying
You know we've got to find a way
To bring some lovin' here today - Ya

Father, father
We don't need to escalate
You see, war is not the answer
For only love can conquer hate
You know we've got to find a way
To bring some lovin' here today

Picket lines and picket signs
Don't punish me with brutality
Talk to me, so you can see
Oh, what's going on
What's going on
Ya, what's going on
Ah, what's going on

Amending the Egyptian Constitution Part 1

2:25 p.m.

There will be a referendum on amending the Egyptian constitution tomorrow. My gut instinct is to vote no. I went to a crash training course on this. I am feeling a little scared, but I think I will try to go to Tahrir Square to see what is going on there.

2:27 p.m.

I went to a lecture by Professor Mervat Abou Ouf on the amendments this week. My understanding is that there are eleven proposed amendments to the constitution. article 75, article 76, article 77, article 88, article 93, artucle 139, article 148, article 179, and article 189 (and two others).[Author's note, this was incorrect, there are nine amendments. I misunderstood. WMB] Dr. Mervat pointed out that there have only been four weeks to review the amendments. That alone is reason to vote against them. We discussed the amendments in class. I am going to write down her critiques tomorrow morning.

11:17 p.m.

I made it to Tahrir Square. I am so glad I made it. It was one of the peak experiences of my stay in Egypt. The energy on the square was incredibly positive. Many families were there with their children. The children were adorable and several children and adults had Egyptian colors and the Arabic symbol for no painted on their face. It seemed that all the protesters there supported the No vote. I saw no protesters organizing for a Yes vote. Somehow I ended up having my photo taken with soldiers, and getting an egyptian flag, and the Arabic character for "No" painted on my face.

I went with my Egyptian colleague Mark Mikhael. Check out his great column on Coptic Christians and Muslims, and how we are all Egyptians here: (http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/348932). Many thanks to him for helping me navigate the square and protecting me from the thugs who tried to steal my camera at the end of the night!

The soldiers seemed so calm and authoritative. Everyone wanted me to take their picture. I think they thought I was a reporter. Did I mention that at the end of the protest, everyone, including me, got down on their hands and knees and picked up trash so that the square was nice and clean again? Absolutely amazing. If that is not revolutionary, I do not know what is.

11:54 p.m.

For Al Jazeera's comprehensive review of the amendments, click here. . . .
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/spotlight/anger-in-egypt/2011/03/20113156309594476.html