Update on Egypt's Presidential Election

Presidential Candidate Aboul Fotouh

Dear readers,

wow, I almost fell off the grid! I have not facebooked, blogged, or done much of anything but teach, write and care for my family over the last few months. But I am trying, I am recommitting, and renewing to the blogosphere.

So where were we? Oh yes, democratizing the new Egypt. That is the ticket. Well, things are a little tough these days. We are coming up on a presidential election in Egypt. The Presidential elections are scheduled for May 23-24th. In the meantime, the Daily News of Egypt is going out of business, which is a real blow to objective reporting in the region. Daily News Egypt: Final Words
 
On April 17, ten presidential hopefuls in Egypt were disqualified from contesting the Presidential election by the head of Egypt's election commission. The head of Egypt's Election Commission is Farouk Sultan. The disqualified include Hosni Mubarak's former spy chief Omar Suleiman, Muslim Brotherhood Khairat el-Shater, Ayman Nour and Hazem Abu Ismail.

Suleiman apparently failed to get enough endorsements from 15 provinces. Shater was barred because he was imprisoned under Mubarak. Although the MB is not my cup of tea, Shater's expulson is particularly unfair because Shater was imprisoned for a political crime under Mubarak. Abu Ismail is out of the race because his mother holds another nationality, which is one of the changes to the constitution made in a referendum last year. Analysis of Specific Provisions of Constitutional Referendum . The Muslim Brotherhood has announced that it will replace Shater with Mohamed Morsy.

According to the Egypt Daily News, "The presidential election starts on May 23 with two days of voting and is expected to go to a June run-off between the top two candidates. Front-runners include the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi, former member of the Islamist group Abdel Moneim Abol Fotoh and former Arab League chief and Egypt's foreign minister for a decade, Amr Moussa." The SCAF is due to hand over power to the elected presidential candidate on July 1, 2012.


Thanassis Cambaniss wrote a prescient analysis for The Atlantic. I heard him on PRI, and his comments rang true. Egyptian Political Transition Faces Crucial Test. He makes a few important points. First, he makes the crucial point that the Presidential Committee is opaque. It is not clear how they were appointed, or how they make their decisions. Their decisions are not subject to appeal, and they are an extension of the power of the SCAF's. I liked his observation that Egypt is struggling with a "fake rule of law. "

I would like to make the observation that although there is an elected parliament, the court system has not experienced any reforms since the Revolution. Further, the executive is being run by the SCAF, which presumably has an interest in who wins the Presidency. Accordingly, two of the three branches are not subject to popular control in any real sense.

On April 19, 2012, The SCAF asked the nation's constitutional court to rule on whether top officials from Hosni Mubarak's era can run for the presidency. Shafiq successfully appealed a decision excluding him from running under the Political Isolation Law, which strips Mubarak era officials of political rights for 10 years.  I agree with the Wasat Party that it is a little hard to understand why Shafiq is being allowed to run, given that he was a prime minister under Mubarak. MP Calls Shafiq reinstatement a threefold scandal

Today, April 26th, 2012, the Presidential Election Commission released its final list of presidential contenders. According to the Egypt Independent, my favorite Egyptian English language paper, the final list includes the following 13 candidates.

• Freedom and Justice Party nominee Mohamed Morsy, 
•  
• Socialist Popular Alliance Party nominee Abul Ezz al-Hariry, 
•  
• Democratic Generation Party nominee Mohamed Fawzy Eissa, 
•  
• Democratic Peace Party nominee Hossam Khairallah, 
•  
• Salafi-oriented Asala Party nominee Abdullah al-Ashal, 
•  
• Tagammu Party nominee Hesham al-Bastawisi, 
•  
• and independents former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq, 
•  
• former Arab League head Amr Moussa, 
•  
• Islamist reformer Abdel Moneim Abouel Fotouh, Mahmoud Hossam Galal, 
•  
• Islamist Mohamed Selim al-Awa, Nasserist Hamdeen Sabbahi
•  
• Leftist attorney Khaled Ali.

These are exciting times for Egypt.  Hopefully, they will be democratic as well as exciting.

~WMB

The Military and Maspero

The smoky haze created by the social fire called the Maspero tragedy still blankets Egypt.

As I have reported in earlier posts, deadly clashes between the military, unarmed Coptic Christian protesters, and thugs left at least 26 dead, and more than 300 injured last week. The SCAF has promised to form a fact-finding committee. The clashes were some of the worst violence the country has seen since the January 25th Revolution. ("Egypt Army seeks probe into Cairo clashes," AlJazeera.net, October 11, 2011) 

International rights groups condemned the Maspero violence, including the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom, Human Rights Watch, and the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Some have called on the US to withhold military aid to Egypt. Military aid to Egypt may be worth as much as 1.3 billion dollars. US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton spoke on the phone with Minister of Foreign Affairs Amr Mohamed to offer condolences to the victims of the Maspero violence. ("US rights groups slam Egypt's military for Maspero violence, Al Masry al Youm, October, 12, 2011)

The Egyptian military denied charges that the military used live ammunition on protesters, and also denied that army vehicles crushed demonstrators under their wheels. (Amirah Ibrahim, "We did not Kill protesters," Al Ahram Weekly, Week of October 16, 2011) Members of the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces denied at a press conference that soldiers used weapons or force during the protest. (Rana Khazbak, "Military denies use of forces, accuses protesters of armed violence in Maspero, Al Masry Al Youm, October, 12, 2011)

However, online videos, as well as credible journalists present at the scene give credence to these allegations. ("Egypt's Army Defends Actions in Protest Crackdown," Al Masry Al Youm, October 12, 2011) General Mahmoud Hegazy, a member of the SCAF asserts that the armed forces "would never and have never opened fire on the people." (Ibid) The Army pins the blame for inciting violence on foreign elements.The SCAF has released its own videos showing individuals attacking soldiers with stones and a sword. (Al Ahram)

Major General Adel Emara claims that tear gas was used for riot control. He claimed that a soldier was driving an armored vehicle to disperse the crowd, when the vehicle was set on fire. He claims the driver was badly injured. (Khazbak,"Military denies use of force") Initial hospital reports show that most victims were killed by gunfire, or by being crushed by military vehicles. Emara accused the protesters of possessing firearms and antagonizing the armed forces. (Ibid.) He showed a video of protesters setting civilian cars on fire, and claimed that the priest was inciting people to violence. He called soldiers involved in the incident "martyrs."

According to a Reuters report on October 11, 2011,  the SCAF is increasingly viewed as a new autocrat, borrowing a page from Mubarak's handbook. Christians and Muslims alike, reports reuters, say that the army's reaction during the Maspero event was as brutal as any of Mubarak's tactics. The Egyptian citizenry is increasingly impatient with Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, 75, the leader of the SCAF and a veteran of the 73 war against Israel.

Al Masry Al Youm, Egypt's most respected independent newspaper, condemned the military's actions in the Maspero tragedy. (Al Masry Editorial, "The military has gone too far, Al Masry al youm, October 11, 2011) They state a peaceful protest was met with excessive force by the military and the police. They urge that all those responsible for the violence be held accountable. The paper called for an elected government as soon as possible.

Amr Hamzawy, an activist and political force, and also a faculty member in my department at AUC, stated that " the partnership between the authorities, . . . the SCAF, the cabinet, and the citizens, is over. "("With Clashes, Egyptians Lose Trust in Military Ruler," Al Masry Al Youm, October 11, 2011) The New York Times reports that confidence in the SCAF reached a "breaking point" when the military tried to place blame for the deaths on the Coptic protesters, and denied the use of live ammunition. David Kirkpatrick, "Egypt's Military Expands Power, Raising Alarms." The New York Times, October 14, 2011)

As long as no presidential election is held, reports Reuters, executive power will remain in the hands of the military. The times quotes Maj. Gen Mahmoud Hegazy as saying the military will stay in power until Egypt has a president. Since no timetable has yet been set for presidential elections, this could mean that the SCAF stays in power well into 2013. (Ibid)

The Muslim Brotherhood blames remnants of the NDP, the party of Mubarak--now disbanded--for the violence in Maspero. MB Supreme Guide Mohamed Badie says that NDP members had threatened to set "Egypt on fire," if they were banned from political activity. He recommended an elected parliament, and an Ombudsman. (DPA, "Brotherhood supreme guide: NDP remnants behind Maspero bloodshed," Al Masry Al Youm, October 12, 2011)

The Daily News Egypt reports that Egyptians are worried, because the Army draws broadly from the national population. The idea that the military would attack civilians has thrown them into "shocked confusion."Sarah El-Deeb, "Stunned by bloodshed, Egyptians torn over army," Daily News Egypt, October 17, 2011). Sheik Osama raised an Orthodox Cross among mourners to show his support for Christian victims at a vigil Thursday. One woman, whose fiance was killed, said a military police officer kicked her fiance's corpse and hit him and called her "an infidel." (Ibid)

Libya Update August 19, 2011

The Washington Post reports that the International Organization for Migration is evacuating large numbers of Egyptians and journalists from Tripoli.

Rebels have claimed control of the road from Tripoli to the Tunisian border. The Rebels are advancing on the capital of Tripoli. The end of the war may be near.

WMB

Khan El Khallili : Cairo's Great Souk

Article first published as Khan El Khalili in May: Cairo's Great Souk is Open for Business on Blogcritics.

My husband left Egypt to Kenya a few days ago. The day that he left, we went to Khan El Khallili together for several hours.

According to my tourist book on Cairo,

"Khan el-Khalili (Arabic: خان الخليلي‎) is a major souk in the Islamic district of Cairo. The bazaar district is one of Cairo's main attractions for tourists and Egyptians alike."

Well, when Hamadi and I went, it was fun, and romantic. We started our day by getting dropped off at the gate by a taxi. We then sat down at the nearest cafe. I had my favorite drink, lemon with ice. I also had a tasty chicken shawarma. My husband had roasted lamb chops. They were small, so looked like lamb lollipops. Then, we both shared a delicious small salad, or what we call kachumbari in Kenya. Tomatoes, onions, cucumbers, cilantro. There was also some nice tahini in the middle of the plate to dunk the pita bread in.

The waiters were amused by my valiant attempts to speak Arabic, and they laughed and smiled, and for the most part, we understood each other. Then, my husband and I wandered into the true Khan El Khallili. You walks into the narrowest of alleys. Above you are the balconies of building built exactly next to each other, right out of a book by Naguib Mahfouz. On either side is shop after tiny shop, with cloths and wares hanging out of the windows. Every possible good, shirts, embroidery, boxes of mother of pearl, silver earrings, spices, can be found in Khan El Khallili. It is a veritable cornucopia of the best Egypt and the Middle East has to offer, all to be had at the best price you can negotiate.

The tragic part is that the drop in tourism caused by the Revolution means fewer customers. Each vendor was more anxious than the next. Each one was desperate to convince you to sample his or her wares. There were very few customers that day, perhaps a few dozen. I was dizzied and thrilled by the selection. I bought a gorgeous embroidered blue shirt, some stunning silver braid earrings, several spices, and many beautiful boxes. But I became exhausted by the persistence of the vendors. I was relieved I was with my husband. Remember that in a normal year 11 million tourists come through Egypt, and the great majority of them pass through Khan El Khallili. The vendors must really be suffering right now.

According to Frederick Kunkle writing on April 19, in the Washington Post, The drop in tourism after the Revolution has hurt Egypt's economy.

In February, tourism was off 80 percent compared with last year, and it was down 60 percent in March, []. That is a crippling blow for a sector that accounts for one of every seven Egyptian jobs and makes up about 11 percent of the nation's economy.

Egypt is perfectly safe now. There are so many opportunities for people to shop, and view this land of amazing contrasts.  Come see the New Egypt. Save Khan El Khallili.

Setting Up Systems

Just a quick, somewhat humorous, post on some things that need to be fixed in Egypt. I know I am a khawaga (foreigner) but I am also half African and married to an African, so I think my comments are fair, and really, my goal is to be helpful. 

Okay, while Egypt is busy democratizing, they should consider improving accountability, increasing transparency, and reducing bureaucracy. A good dose of the "buck stops here," would work wonders for this country. Mind you, I have lived in Kenya, which has caused me to grease some palms to get some "do or die" paperwork, like a birth certificate. (I can say, however, that with the correct bribe, things happen fast in Kenya.)  And, I grew up in New Mexico, which has its own case of the "mananas" and some corruption, to boot. But seriously, in order to democratize Egypt, people need to make sure things work, and work on time!

Non-scientific sample, but I would LOVE IT if readers could contribute their own Egyptian examples.

First example: Okay, the university I work at runs okay, I guess. It is supposedly American, but nowhere close to American in efficiency. Well, I gave the university my daughter's tuition invoice on May 2, 2011 or thereabouts, about one day after I got it. Her tuition is a benefit of my expatriate pay package. Today is June 5th. So one month, many emails, and a few visits to payroll later, they finally paid my daughter's tuition. Meanwhile, all the other cute kids are going to school in a lovely turqouise uniform, while she wears street clothes. I will buy her uniform tomorrow.

When I arrived, my boss told me that the university "specializes in needless bureaucracy." Look,in my opinion, bureaucracy is not all bad, as long as it works. Hey, I am a former bureaucrat myself, and a fan of Weber. Bureaucracy can have its upsides, as it forces people to get organized, and keep files. The trick is to reduce the red tape, and make the systems function smoothly.

Second example: I wrote an opinion piece for a well respected Egyptian daily newspaper. Very good shop, they do great work. But apparently, they could use a little bureaucracy. I wrote the op-ed two months ago. It was published April 4th. Meanwhile, it is now June 5th, and I have not been paid. I went to Garden City today to try to pick up my check, which I was told by the editor should be ready. One hour was spent haggling in Arabic with the guy at the front desk. I haggled, my student got on the phone and haggled, my taxi driver haggled. One hot, sweaty and smoky hour later, I had no check. I finally left, because, amazingly, I have work to do, and I actually try to meet my deadlines. Imagine that!

I spoke to my student and asked him if the people at the newspaper were embarrassed? He said no, because in Egypt, people always try to say that whatever happens is not their fault, it is someone else's fault. Well, gee folks, a little more accountability and transparency, and  Mubarak would not have been able to steal 70 billion dollars. And FYI, I did not make up that figure. See article on Mubarak's riches. Needless to say, if things are this bad in the two private sector examples I have given, I do not even want to deal with the public sector here.


So in the first case, we have too much red tape. In the second case, there is no red tape, but there is also no tape, as it were. Creating a sense of accountability with management systems that function efficiently is a good area to focus on for capacity building in Egypt. This is an area that is ripe for investment by well meaning NGOs and development organizations such as USAID and DFID.

Postscript: June 7, 2011 with regard to my daughter's tuition, things got worse before they got better.  The finance officer at her posh private school failed to communicate with the registrar's office, and the principal sent me a letter asking me for payment, after I had already paid. I was both embarassed, and irate.

Post, post script: June 8, 2011. The principal of the posh private school, who is from New Zealand, did exactly what I asked for in the article. He called me. He apologized for the confusion, and he sent a driver over to my office with original receipts. Kudos!!!

Post, post post script. June 9, 2011. I still have not been paid by the paper. Sigh . . .

Egyptian Military Arrests AUC Law Professor

Dear readers

My colleague today pointed out that a fellow professor has been arrested by the military. Amr El-Shalakany, a well known law professor, and a faculty member at the American University in Cairo, has apparently been arrested and will be tried by a military court. On April 29,  2011, the Daily News Egypt (English edition) reported that Professor El Shalakany was arrested two days ago in the Suez for allegedly "insulting the supreme military council," and even more fantastically causing riots and burning a police station.

The Daily News Reports that "Initially he was to be released Friday when the detaining officers suddenly decided to transfer him to Suez for a trial under martial law."

I do not know Professor El Shalakany well, but I do know him. We work on the same floor at The American University in Cairo. Philip Weiss is also covering El Shalakany's detention. Amr organized an event for faculty and staff in support of the revolution that I attended, and published on my blog. He has written several columns in the New York Times.

As an attorney, as an AUC faculty member, and as a supporter of freedom of speech and the rule of law, I am really worried about Amr. I think we need to realize that we are all at risk now. I do not know what happened out in Sharm el Sheikh, but at a minimum, Amr deserves a free and fair trial, and I do not believe that a military trial is appropriate.

I am a khagawa, and I am scared, and I do not know what to do. How can we help him?

Elevator

This post previously published at Blogcritics. WMB

Dear readers,

I got on the elevator this morning to go to my office at AUC. I was alone with my coffee. I saw a group of about twelve janitors, both male and female, standing around in front of the elevator. My co-worker had told me that sometimes in Egypt, higher status people will not share the elevator.

Egypt is a deeply class-based society, in my opinion, and there are many moments when people jostle for status over everything from titles, to clothing, to who rides in the elevator. Well folks, not on my watch.

I am American. We hold these truths to be self evident: all men (and women) are created equal. I am "Black." My people have been held down too long for me to hold someone else down. I am African, descended from the Mau Mau. We have to fight for the right to be free.

One of the slogans of the January 25th Revolution was "bread, democracy, human dignity." I asked all the janitors to come into the elevator. I smiled broadly and waved them in. My Arabic is not very good, but I said, "Ahlen." Be welcome. Everyone came in, and everyone smiled and laughed. The elevator door closed, and we started moving. The revolution starts here, and it starts now.

What's Going On? Egypt Edition

I would like to take a moment to think about the relevance of Marvin Gaye's lyrics  to Libya and Egypt at this moment. Peace out. WMB


What's Going On
(M. Gaye, Renaldo 'Obie' Benson, Al Cleveland)
Tamla Records Original LP release: Jan. 1971
Album: What's Going On Deluxe Edition (2 disc)
Motown Record Co. 2001 LP MOTD 3404


Mother, mother
There's too many of you crying
Brother, brother, brother
There's far too many of you dying
You know we've got to find a way
To bring some lovin' here today - Ya

Father, father
We don't need to escalate
You see, war is not the answer
For only love can conquer hate
You know we've got to find a way
To bring some lovin' here today

Picket lines and picket signs
Don't punish me with brutality
Talk to me, so you can see
Oh, what's going on
What's going on
Ya, what's going on
Ah, what's going on

Blog Interview about the Constitutional Referendum with Abdel-Rahman Hussein, author of Sibilant Egypt Blog

Dear Readers: 


Today, we are very privileged to have the opportunity to speak to Abdel-Rahman Hussein. Mr. Hussein is a Cairo-based journalist who's written for Daily News Egypt, Al-Masry Al-Youm, Al Jazeera and the Huffington Post. He is author of the Sibilant Egypt blog.

Dear Mr. Hussein,

I just want to thank you for agreeing to speak with me about your election experiences. First of all, how does it feel to participate in possibly the first major real election in Egypt's history?

It felt surreal. This whole thing - since Jan25 - has been surreal and hasn't really sunk in. It's been a long time coming, that's for sure. It was a referendum though, not yet an election and as such was more clear-cut. Yes or No. It was also a bit anti-climactic in the sense that the outcome was accurately predicted beforehand.

I have cast many ballots in my life, but I understand that for many Egyptians, this was the first ballot they have ever cast. How did it feel to vote? Did you feel like your vote meant something?

Well I voted against the 2007 constitutional amendments knowing it would be futile, but I did it anyway. This time the turnout was much bigger, which was heartening. Though I voted for the losing outcome it did mean something in the sense that there is now a clearer representation of Egyptians. For possibly the first time we have a fairly accurate assessment of how many voted for or against a particular motion.

Do you believe that this election was truly free and fair?

There were, as ever, reports of irregularities yet it wasn't on the scale we've seen in previous elections. I think at the ballot box the result was relatively fair. As for what happened before people entered the ballot boxes, that's another story. The scare-mongering, the irrational reasoning for the yes vote was a disappointment. Yet anywhere else it would just be termed aggressive campaigning. I have no qualms with those who voted yes out of political conviction, but to vote yes as a pro-Islamic, anti-Coptic gesture or for purposes of the restoration of "stability" was sad for me. But I'll be told that “that's democracy isn't it?” Still within that framework, I believe there must be room to counter against bigotry, xenophobia (Article 75) and fear-mongering.

Following up on the last point, what specific violations did you see regarding elections? Were there enough polling places? Was anyone bribed? What do you think of the Muslim Brotherhood giving out food to encourage people to vote yes?

The Muslim Brotherhood campaigned aggressively - and successfully - in the days leading up to the referendum. There were reports of bribery, but irrespective of that they managed to get their message across. However, that shouldn't necessarily be seen as an indicator of equal success in the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections.

In your opinion, was there enough time leading up to the referendum to actually learn what the amendments mean?

No there wasn't. And there wasn't enough time for debate. However, more time doesn't mean that the outcome would have been different. In any case Egypt needs a new constitution, and it will get one.

To your knowledge, who was on the committee that drafted the amendments? Do you think their selection was fair?

The selection was safe, not too controversial (with the exception of the one Muslim Brotherhood member). And I see the logic in only amending the articles that were put up. To rewrite a new constitution would have meant an interminable delay, as there is disagreement on - among other things - article 2 for example. However, maybe that's what should have been done. In a way, the ideals of the revolution have been usurped, but that's how things go when a grass-roots movement turns into a political process.

Finally, in your view, what does a yes vote mean for Egypt? What is the way forward, what is the situation we are in now?

What a “Yes” vote means will only be apparent once the parliamentary elections have taken place and we see what candidates won out. It could be good or bad (depending on your personal political alignment). I would say that the power now lies more not with the people who braved the previous regime and risked their lives to overthrow it, but rather with the "silent majority" that the regime was bleating about before it was consigned to the dustbin of history. In any case, what's imperative now is that regardless of the overriding political direction, there needs to be guarantees pertaining to the protection of minority rights, women's rights and civil liberties. As has been seen on the streets of Cairo recently, dissenting voices have been silenced by force, whether at the hands of the army or regular citizens. For me, safeguards against that sort of thing need to be enshrined in any future constitution.

Many thanks for your time, and your valuable insights. It has been a real pleasure “blogging” with you!

--Warigia