Collective insanity in the aftermath of Maspero

According to Rana Khazbak of Al Masry Al Youm, members of the SCAF denied at a press conference today that soldiers used weapons or force during the Maspero clashes. SCAF general Emara claims that only tear gas was used. Major General Mahmoud Hegazy claims that soldiers were killed with bullets and gunshots, but the SCAF has not announced the names or numbers of military casualties.

Al Jazeera reports that the SCAF states the clashes were the result of "some to destroy the pillars of the state and sow chaos." I find Al Jazeera's reporting on this uncharacteristically weak. They do not mention that protesters were run over by tanks, or fired on by the military. They write that

"the Copts say they were marching peacefully when thugs attacked them, drawing in the military police who used what activists described as unnecessary force." 

Why is this usually reliable news source soft pedaling this crucial story?

Hazem El-Beblawi, the deputy prime minister and finance minister tendered his resignation over the clashes.  In another instance of collective insanity, the SCAF has rejected his resignation. Beblawi has told Reuters that he has not withdrawn his resignation, and he still wishes to resign.

The military's refusal to accept El-Beblawi's resignation, and their denial that the army used force are both symptoms of a type of collective insanity gripping the nation. The events were widely captured on film. Yet the Egyptian Army is claiming that the armored vehicle drove into a crowd when protesters set it on fire. Yet, this did not, in fact, occur.

Human rights lawyer Khaled Ali has brought in forensic doctors to the Coptic Hospital. Their reports show that the dead were killed by live ammunition or by being crushed by army vehicles. Amnesty International pins blame for the carnage on the military.

When will the Egyptian Parliamentary and Presidential Elections be Held?

The million dollar question is when will elections be held in Egypt? The short answer is that it is not yet clear.

Presidential hopefuls, including Mohammed El Baradei have asked that the SCAF hold the upcoming Presidential elections in February. Seven presidential candidates met on Tuesday.

Al Masry al Youm reports

Presidential hopefuls Mohamed ElBaradei, Amr Moussa, Mohamed Selim al-Awa, Abdel Moneim Abouel Fotouh, Hamdeen Sabbahi and Hazem Abu Ismail took part in the meeting, in addition to Hesham el-Bastawisi, who participated via telephone from abroad.

Presidential Hopefuls Demand Elections be held in February 

On September 14, the SCAF said that it is willing to amend the law on parliamentary elections currently scheduled for November. The Egyptian parliament is composed of two houses: The People's Assembly and the Shura. However, it says that 50 percent of seats should go to workers, and 50 percent to farmers. This is interesting, because who will decide and define who workers are and who farmers are.

In July, the SCAF passed a law suggesting that half the parliament should be elected on an individual basis and half the parliament should be elected on a proportional closed list basis. The press says that the "Military council passed a law." However, in the absence of a parliament, perhaps the correct terminology should be that the "military council issued a decree."

In August, Egypt's High Election Commission formed six subcommittees to manage the oversight of parliamentary elections. These subcommittees are in charge of 1) voting and balloting stations 2) voters lists including names and IDs 3) candidates campaign logos 4) investigating and addressing elections related complaints 5) the participation of election observers 6) rules regulating electoral propaganda.
The Muslim Brotherhood, however, does not want any delays. They say that the legitimacy of the transitional period will end on September 27th.

However, many analysts say that the MB, Islamists, and the remnants of the old regime wish to have elections as soon as possible, because there forces are more organized. The sooner elections are held, the better the MB and NDP will do. Later elections will assist the secular groups, and leftists. The risk, however, is that delaying elections will result in no elections.  Further, by delaying elections, the SCAF is left in place, which increases the period of time during which Egypt is ruled by a military junta.


Meanwhile, in another ominous portent, Al Jazeera's Mubashr Misr channel has been shut down and new satellite channels will not be authorized. Without a free media, it is difficult to hold a free and fair election. Some analysts worry that this media crackdown is an effort to prevent coverage of vote-rigging and other anti-democratic practices.

Sources

http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/495780
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/495805
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/495770
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/484067

Winter for Egyptian Democracy

Article first published as Winter for Egyptian Democracy on Blogcritics.

It is winter in Egypt. The days are overcast, and surprisingly cold. Whereas the United States is celebrating the arrival of the cherry blossoms, here we just have sand and more sand, punctuated by palm trees and formal shrubs such as arbor vitae, which all look like they need a bit more water. Overall, the news from Egypt is not that heartening, from the standpoint of ensuring democracy. The New York Times reports seem upbeat. I am an optimist, however, the coverage in Cairo gives me pause, and the mood is calm, but concerned.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled for September. This gives political parties five months to form and prepare for elections. This short time line arguably heavily favors already established groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and the National Democratic Party. New parties will need the approval of at least 5000 voters from ten of Egypt's 29 provinces. I attended a lecture at the American University in Cairo on Tuesday night, in which the analysts said that this provision also requires publication in two major newspapers. The costs for this could run to one million Egyptian pounds, which would also disadvantage new parties.

A controversial law on political parties is also being bandied about that would disallow political parties with religious backgrounds. The Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) enacted a political party formation law which would ban parties based on religion. One potential problem with such a law is how one determines whether a party is based on religion. What criteria will be used for this determination? In my view, this law is potentially repressive. The presidential election has also been postponed.

After some highly questionable amendments to the repressive 1971 Constitution were rushed through in the past week without adequate time for national dialogue, Al Jazeera reports that an entirely new constitution will be drawn up after the election, but exactly when it will be put in place is unclear. The fact that a vote was held on the constitution was momentous, as was the high turnout, and the largely peaceful conduct of the vote. The amendments were written by a secretive group appointed by the military with no discernible criteria, and then were rushed through in four weeks. The vote  was held without adequate time or education for national dialogue in a country with a thirty percent illiteracy rate. I am concerned.

Read more: http://blogcritics.org/politics/article/winter-for-egyptian-democracy/#ixzz1IA6j3z00

Updated Post on Facts of Libyan Crisis: Week of March 29, 2011

Dear readers


This post will pull together material on the Libyan crisis. (Libya is next door to Egypt, so it is relevant to this blog.) I am providing a chronology, not an analysis, although arguably my choice of what to read is a form of interpretation. I will pull from Al Jazeera, The Washington Post, and the New York Times. I will also add in information from the Egyptian paper Al Masry Al Youm. I will put up a new post on a weekly basis, or as needed. If you want more detail than I can give you here, check this out Al Jazeera Libya Live Blog WMB

Latest News (Updated Friday, April 1, 2011 12:00 p.m.)

On March 31, the Washington Post broke a story that the CIA gathering intelligence on Libyan rebels. The CIA is gathering intelligence on the identities and capabilities of Libyan Rebels. The Obama Administration has pledged that no Ground troops will be committed to Libya. However, the Obama Administration has not ruled out providing arms or other support to the rebels. There is mixed progress on the ground in Libya. Democracy Now reports that Libyan Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa has resigned his post and arrived in Britain. The rebels have lost control of Ras Lanuf, and Gadhafi's forces have taken Brega and Jawwad. Democracy Now also reports that a "former Nicaraguan foreign minister has been tapped as Libya’s new envoy to the United Nations. The Nicaraguan government claims to have sent a letter declaring Miguel D’Escoto Brockmann’s new role on Libya’s behalf. The 78-year-old D’Escoto has been an outspoken critic of the United States." An 18 month old civilian infant was killed in Libya by debris from Western shelling on an arms depot.

On April 1st, US Defense Secretary Gates stated in testimony to Congress that continuing coalition attacks should encourage top Libyan government officials to break with Ghadafi. According to the Washington Post, a senior European diplomat argues that what is happening in Libya is no longer a no-fly zone, it has gone beyond that. Gates stated that the Obama Administration aims to use military force to aid the Libyan opposition. A fledgling government has been formed in Libya named the Transitional National Council.


Detailed summary of February 15, 2011 until today on "read more."

Where is Bahrain?

For a good overview of what is happening in Bahrain, check out a blog by Kashif Ilyas called My Notes.

You can also of course, check out Al Jazeera.

Here is a map of Bahrain.

Here is a map of the Region from a North African perspective

Here is a map of the region from a Middle Eastern perspective.

Blog Interview about the Constitutional Referendum with Abdel-Rahman Hussein, author of Sibilant Egypt Blog

Dear Readers: 


Today, we are very privileged to have the opportunity to speak to Abdel-Rahman Hussein. Mr. Hussein is a Cairo-based journalist who's written for Daily News Egypt, Al-Masry Al-Youm, Al Jazeera and the Huffington Post. He is author of the Sibilant Egypt blog.

Dear Mr. Hussein,

I just want to thank you for agreeing to speak with me about your election experiences. First of all, how does it feel to participate in possibly the first major real election in Egypt's history?

It felt surreal. This whole thing - since Jan25 - has been surreal and hasn't really sunk in. It's been a long time coming, that's for sure. It was a referendum though, not yet an election and as such was more clear-cut. Yes or No. It was also a bit anti-climactic in the sense that the outcome was accurately predicted beforehand.

I have cast many ballots in my life, but I understand that for many Egyptians, this was the first ballot they have ever cast. How did it feel to vote? Did you feel like your vote meant something?

Well I voted against the 2007 constitutional amendments knowing it would be futile, but I did it anyway. This time the turnout was much bigger, which was heartening. Though I voted for the losing outcome it did mean something in the sense that there is now a clearer representation of Egyptians. For possibly the first time we have a fairly accurate assessment of how many voted for or against a particular motion.

Do you believe that this election was truly free and fair?

There were, as ever, reports of irregularities yet it wasn't on the scale we've seen in previous elections. I think at the ballot box the result was relatively fair. As for what happened before people entered the ballot boxes, that's another story. The scare-mongering, the irrational reasoning for the yes vote was a disappointment. Yet anywhere else it would just be termed aggressive campaigning. I have no qualms with those who voted yes out of political conviction, but to vote yes as a pro-Islamic, anti-Coptic gesture or for purposes of the restoration of "stability" was sad for me. But I'll be told that “that's democracy isn't it?” Still within that framework, I believe there must be room to counter against bigotry, xenophobia (Article 75) and fear-mongering.

Following up on the last point, what specific violations did you see regarding elections? Were there enough polling places? Was anyone bribed? What do you think of the Muslim Brotherhood giving out food to encourage people to vote yes?

The Muslim Brotherhood campaigned aggressively - and successfully - in the days leading up to the referendum. There were reports of bribery, but irrespective of that they managed to get their message across. However, that shouldn't necessarily be seen as an indicator of equal success in the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections.

In your opinion, was there enough time leading up to the referendum to actually learn what the amendments mean?

No there wasn't. And there wasn't enough time for debate. However, more time doesn't mean that the outcome would have been different. In any case Egypt needs a new constitution, and it will get one.

To your knowledge, who was on the committee that drafted the amendments? Do you think their selection was fair?

The selection was safe, not too controversial (with the exception of the one Muslim Brotherhood member). And I see the logic in only amending the articles that were put up. To rewrite a new constitution would have meant an interminable delay, as there is disagreement on - among other things - article 2 for example. However, maybe that's what should have been done. In a way, the ideals of the revolution have been usurped, but that's how things go when a grass-roots movement turns into a political process.

Finally, in your view, what does a yes vote mean for Egypt? What is the way forward, what is the situation we are in now?

What a “Yes” vote means will only be apparent once the parliamentary elections have taken place and we see what candidates won out. It could be good or bad (depending on your personal political alignment). I would say that the power now lies more not with the people who braved the previous regime and risked their lives to overthrow it, but rather with the "silent majority" that the regime was bleating about before it was consigned to the dustbin of history. In any case, what's imperative now is that regardless of the overriding political direction, there needs to be guarantees pertaining to the protection of minority rights, women's rights and civil liberties. As has been seen on the streets of Cairo recently, dissenting voices have been silenced by force, whether at the hands of the army or regular citizens. For me, safeguards against that sort of thing need to be enshrined in any future constitution.

Many thanks for your time, and your valuable insights. It has been a real pleasure “blogging” with you!

--Warigia