Showing posts with label Egyptian presidential election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Egyptian presidential election. Show all posts

Monday, June 25, 2012

Anguish at Shafiq loss



While Morsy supporters celebrated their candidates win, many Shafiq supporters were despondent, depressed, or even hysterical at his loss.

Shafiq supporters in disbelief after election loss.

Shafiq supporters devastated by loss.

My office this morning was like a morgue. My coworkers, Christian and Muslim alike, were miserable, scared, and uncertain. I tried to comfort them, telling them now is the time for activism, not the time to lose faith.

~WMB

Sunday, June 24, 2012

Morsy wins. What Now?

Photo Credit, Al Jazeera.


Press conference melts down, Al Jazeera cuts away to jubilant crowds in Tahrir. People flooding into Tahrir.

I guess this means the election was free and fair at some level, given that the SCAF would have preferred Shafiq.

Morsy wins with 51.73% of vote. 

At 5:10 p.m. 

Please note that nearly half of the people who voted supported Shafiq, in part because he is secular. Morsy has quite a task ahead of him. It was a very narrow victory. There is going to be a large opposition to Morsy rule. Also, many ballots were invalidated. Farouk Sultan said as many as 800,000 people invalidated ballots.

Shafiq supporters in tears. Photo credit, Al Jazeera.
The next task? The constitution. The test of whether Morsy is a true revolutionary is whether he establishes a  Constituent Assembly that is truly representative of the Egyptian people. Another test will be how people are in fact chosen for that Constituent Assembly. The process of selection, as I have said repeatedly, is of the utmost importance.

5:16 p.m. Tahrir is going absolutely wild. People are chanting "The Revolution Continues."

5:18 p.m. People in Tahrir are chanting "Down with military rule." 

The Tahrir protest/celebration is likely to stay in as a sit in against military rule.

6:37 p.m. Here in El Rehab, some young men are walking through the courtyards, drumming, shaking their tambourines, and chanting in a jolly way. The children in the apartment complexes, who are all down playing in the yard, after a day of being cooped up inside by worried parents, are dancing and having fun. Of course, the children, have no idea what is going on. Cars are honking their horns. Is all this festivity a sign that the old, culturally rich, exciting, interesting Egypt is back? Perhaps it is a good omen for happy times ahead.

From twitter


Judging by celebrations downtown, egypt is more likely to turn into Ibiza than iran


~WMB

Friday, June 22, 2012

Waiting with Baited Breath for Egyptian Presidential Election Results

جمعة «عودة الشرعية» بميدان التحرير
Photo Credit. Ahmed Al Masry. Thousands of protesters gather in Tahrir Square to participate in Friday of "Rejecting Coup d'etat", Cairo, 22 June 2012, against Constitutional Declaration supplement issued by SCAF.

Dear readers

For those of you in Egypt, I know nothing that you do not know. Everyone is wondering who the presidential victor will be, Morsy or Shafiq?

Breaking News: SCAF and MB may be in negotiations    (11:41 p.m., Friday, Cairo time)

I was at a conference on defense spending and its distortions of various world economies today. It was held at the AUC in Moataz Al Alfi hall. The entire day, we kept checking in with each other, "have you heard anything?"

I asked my boss, whom I think is very thoughtful in these matters. I said to her, "does it really matter if Egypt elects a president, given that Parliament has been dismissed?" She said that indeed, it matters deeply. People need to have a sense that the process will be carried through. Also, if Parliament is dismissed, the presidency would arguably be the democratic bulwark in the country.

I went to Maadi yesterday to see my good friend from the UNDP who is monitoring the elections.   She focused on the fact that Egypt is in a learning process regarding democracy. The highway from Downtown to New Cairo is completely plastered with giant billboards for both the Presidential candidates, right next to each other in many cases. This picture gives you a sense.

Photo credit Reuters. Morsy signs are in Red, Shafiq signs are blue.

If you would like a good background piece to catch up on the situation check out the Carnegie Endowment for International Piece.

The Egyptian Political System in Dissaray by Nathan J. Brown. 

People are worried that violence could break out if one side or the other disputes the results.

I love this photo published in the Egyptian Independent today. It shows a former pasha, with protesters sitting on his statue, Morsy posters plastered everywhere. There is the spire of a mosque on the left hand side, and a glimpse of the heart of high class Cairo, the Semiramis Intercontinental, directly opposite the US Embassy on the right hand side of the photo.


Tahrir square the 22th of June
Photo Credit Virginie Nguyen, Egypt Independent.

For non-Egyptian readers, some selections from today's press.


Morsy Urges Fast Election Results

Shafiq Claims Victory in Egyptian Presidential Runoff

Egyptian Media warns of Massacre of the Century

Election's Political Context Flawed, Say Monitors. 

Mursi, Shafiq campaigns both claim victory in Egyptian presidential race


Hoping for the best, most democratic outcome. ~WMB

Saturday, June 16, 2012

An Eerily Quiet Election Day in Egypt

Second round of Presidential elections. Photo Credit Virginie Nguyen, Al Masry al Youm.


The first day of presidential elections in Egypt has been extremely quiet. We kept everyone indoors today, out of worry for our safety, but it was one of the quietest days I have ever experienced in Cairo. I noticed that the muezzin gave a particularly elegant, and flowery call this afternoon in the call to prayer, but that was the only unusual item of the day.

After so many elections, two for the peoples assembly, two for the shura, and now two for the President, citizens are certainly facing election fatigue. Furthermore, Thursday's decision has invalidated all the hard work that went into electing the only democratic body in Egypt, the parliament.

The military (the SCAF) is in full control of the government, and everyone is in shock. The SCAF has full legislative powers until parliament is reelected. If Shafiq wins the presidency, the SCAF will hold both legislative and executive powers. The judiciary was never reformed, so represents part of the Mubarak regime. Jaadaliya reports that court rulings represent a blow to civilian forces.

 The euphoria that reigned a year ago after the revolution has been replaced by a kind of despair. But activists are not giving up. They continue to organize. They continue to build their party, and strengthen their ground and grassroots contacts. Their faith is inspiring, and the revolution is still alive.

Vote turnout has been extremely low.  Two different projects are afoot, one to boycott the elections, and one to turn in invalidated ballots. Activists plan vote nullification campaign.

Friday, June 15, 2012

Confusion after court rulings in Egypt

Tahrir square

Last night I was meeting with a friend who is active in a major secular party in Egypt. There was some confusion about the future of the party. Yesterday's court ruling invalidated all the seats won by independents in parliament: approximately 1/3 of the seats. As a result, the parliament is effectively disbanded, because there are not enough people in parliament to hold sessions.

Hundreds in Tahrir Protest against Supreme Court rulings.

I cannot verify this, but my friend said that even if Shafiq wins, if the Parliament is disbanded, there will be no one to swear him in. Therefore, whoever wins the presidential election may not actually be in power until the parliament is reconstituted.

Egypt's high court calls for dissolution of Parliament.

I was at the Marriot in Zamalek for a lecture on "The Arab Awakening: One Year On." The lecture was held by the AUC. After the lecture, I spoke with my friend on the outdoor patio, so that he could smoke a cigarette. Who did we run into but Amr Hamzawy, my former colleague at the PPAD. He was with his beautiful wife, Basma. He looked a little stressed, because he is one of the independents who have now lost their seats. But, he was optimistic.

Blow to Transition as Court invalidates Parliament.

Many at the conference I attended last night, referred to the events as a "coup." Further, my friend suggested that the courts are not independent, and are actually controlled by the SCAF. Indeed, the courts have been operating with little or no reform since the Revolution.

Parliament's Dissolution Could Postpone Presidential Election.

Ironically, I had a girl's lunch at one thirty, and one of my colleagues who works at the UNDP told us that one third of parliament would be dismissed, and that Shafiq would be allowed to run. By two thirty, her predictions were confirmed. 


Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Parsing the Egyptian Presidential Election Results


Women stand in line to cast their vote in Alexandria. Photo Credit Al Jazeera.

An Egyptian woman looks at her ballot. Photo Credit, Al Jazeera.
  
Should Egyptians accept the election results?

This is a tough question. It is puzzling that Shafiq outpolled Morsy. There is no question that the Muslim Brotherhood has the best ground game in town. However, for Shafiq to have beaten the Brotherhood, that means that the entire NDP apparatus, i.e. Mubarak's old party, is alive and well. It makes one wonder if there were not behind the scenes election violations that could not be viewed by observers? Allegations of vote buying have been made.  Okay, shaking off my paranoia, here is an interesting analysis of why Shafiq did so well.

Apparently, the secularists and leftists and revolutionaries split their votes between Shabaahi and Fotouh. Of course, vote splitting was to be expected. That said, the top four candidates all polled close to 25%. Given how close the election was, it would have been reasonable to hold a four way runoff. The PEC is not winning any friends in this election. First, they allowed Shafiq to run, even though the parliament banned members of the Mubarak regime from running. There is no question that the PEC's main client was the SCAF.  Second, the decisions of the PEC cannot be appealed.

Many Egyptians are not happy about the outcome. Tahrir was packed today. Issandr El Imrani asks why Egyptians should accept these elections.  Former President Jimmy Carter says his monitors could not observe the whole election, because his mission only got access a week before the race. Overall, however, Carter stated that the results of the election were acceptable.

More worrying than who won, in my view, is the fact that no constitution is in place, and as former President Jimmy Carter pointed out, the Egyptians are electing a president whose powers have not yet been defined. Strange days indeed.

After major protests on Monday, Tahrir Square is calm again.

Runoffs for the presidential elections are slated for the 16th and 17th of June.

Monday, May 28, 2012

Feloul or Islamist? Your choice

Dear readers

The first free and fair elections for President in Egypt's history are underway. Mohammed Morsy, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate is in a runoff with Ahmed Shafiq, a Mubarak appointed prime minister.

This leaves Egyptians with a stark choice. Morsy is arguably a revolutionary, but his strong, conservative religious views may make women, Christians, and secular people nervous. By contrast, Shafiq is definitely secular, and very experienced, but he is the preferred candidate of the Supreme Council of Armed Forces, and he is a Mubarak man. I believe that we are trapped between Scylla and Charybdis as was Homer, in the Odyssey.

Here is the take of the Voice of America.

The Egyptian Independent reports on the runoff.

El Ahram analyzes why Amr Moussa polled fifth place.

It is going to be a rough road ahead for Egyptians, and the region. At least this election is exciting!

~WMB


Tuesday, May 22, 2012

The Night Before Egypt's Presidential Election




Egyptian voters are anxiously awaiting the election of their first civilian president. Many voters are likely to vote strategically for Amr Moussa, former head of the Arab League and a high ranking official in the Mubarak Government, to avoid the victory of an Islamist candidate, writes the Egyptian Independent. Some of the strongest figures in the race include  former Muslim Brotherhood leader Abdel Moneim Abouel Fotouh (Interview with Presidential Candidate Abdel Fotouh) and Hamdeen Sabbahi, a Nasserist. One potential leftist candidate in the race is Khaled Ali, a pro-revolutionary human rights lawyer. Ali bills himself as coming from the "heart of Tahrir Square."

Heba Afify writes that many onlookers regret the withdrawal of Mohamed ElBaradei from the race. El Baradei withdrew in protest of the military's handling of the transition, leaving revolutionaries with no unifying figure. My former colleague at AUC, Rabab El Mahdy notes that the presidential election is the start of the transitional period, not the end.

Abdel-Rahman Hussein reports that the new President's powers and duties have not been clearly outlined. It is not clear whether the new President will be able to dissolve Parliament or appoint a cabinet. In the absence of clearly stated powers, I argue, the civilian President risks becoming a puppet of the military junta known as the Supreme Council of Armed Forces. That being said, before the most recent constitutional amendments which took place in Egypt last spring, the President had sweeping powers.

Jadaliyya has a really nice overview of who is running in this race. Egypt's Presidential Election: Meet the Contenders. In case you are confused, here is the short version.

  • Fotouh is a medical doctor. He is a long time Islamist. He was a main founder of the Muslim Brotherhood. He has since left the organization. I have heard him speak, and think he is a reasonable person, with respect for the secular, but is still a conservative Islamist.
  • Khaled Ali is only 40, Egypt's youngest Presidential Candidate. He has been heavily involved in street protests as a leader and a participant throughout the revolution. He is known as the "candidate of the poor." He is the Executive Director of the Egyptian Center for Economic and Social Rights.  He is a dark horse, but two thumbs up!
  • Selim Al-Awa is supposedly a moderate Islamist, but charged Christians with storing weapons in their churches. (?!!!?) He is a 69 year old lawyer, with ties to the Muslim Brotherhood that have not been clearly verified. He is looking for support from radical Islamist groups. Not my cup of tea.
  • Hesham al Bastawisi is another lawyer with a blemish free record of fighting for an independent judiciary against the Mubarak regime. He is running on the ticket of the leftist Tagammu party. I like him, but he probably does not have a chance. 
  • Abu Ezz-Al Hariry is running on the Socialist Popular Alliance ticket. He is a reform candidate, who is an experienced politician and a man of the people.
  • Mohamed Morsy is the Muslim Brotherhood's last minute presidential nominee. He has a good shot, because he is MB. Nuff said. 
  • Amr Moussa is of the old regime, but the front runner in this race. He is a 76 year old veteran politician who served as the permanent representative of Egypt to the United Nations. He was Minister of Foreign Affairs under Mubarak, and also Secretary General of the Arab League. He is secular, but a Mubarak crony. He has a very good chance. 
  • Hamdeen Sabahi is a Nasserite, which invokes secularism and a moderate leftism, combined with pan-Arab nationalism. Nasser is a favorite memory of Egyptians right now, so this may work for Sabahi. He has a strong political history, and a platform of social justice. 
  • Ahmed Shafiq served as Prime Minister in the days after the Mubarak Regime collapsed. He is a military man who has distanced himself from the Revolution. He is probably the SCAF's preferred candidate.
Well the excitement never stops! 

Friday, April 27, 2012

Egyptian Presidential Election, Protests, and the Politics of Drafting the New Constitution






An Egyptian girl street vendor displays dairy products for sale under electoral posters in Cairo, Egypt, Monday, April 23, 2012
(AP)
 
Well folks, it is a busy news day in Egypt!

There is a big protest in Tahrir. It was called by the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis. I like the concept, which is demanding a handover of power to civilians. I am less sanguine about the people who called it. The Free Front for Peaceful Change has refused to participate, saying the Islamists are hijacking the protests after abandoning the streets for months.

A Constituent Assembly to write Egypt's new constitution is being put together. A mediation committee has been established to end the impasse over the Assembly's make up, according to the Egypt Independent. So far, the parties in the mediation have agreed to grant 15 seats to the FJP ( Muslim Brotherhood) 7 seats to the Nour party (Salafis), and 4 to the Wafd party (center secular) out of the 40 seats to be occupied by political parties. If those numbers are correct, 26 seats have been chosen, leaving 14 to be filled by other political parties. It is not clear what algorithm has been used to date to fill the seats. A court ruling in March determined that the Constituent Assembly had to be reformed due to its lack of diversity. As someone outside this mediation, my concern is that it is not clear whether women, bedouins, Christians, leftists, secular persons, or new parties that are not Islamists are on this Assembly. There is a lot at stake here. If the new Egyptian Constitution is not well written, then it will be very difficult for Egypt to emerge into a full-fledged democracy. Check out an article that gives some insight into this process.

With regard to the Presidential election, the National Association for Change is attempting to agree on a single revolutionary candidate. Leftist lawyer, Khaled Ali is a human rights advocate who has been on the approved list of candidates. He has said he will waive his candidacy if a consensus candidate is chosen. The National Association for Change has stated that they support the following principals: the civilian democratic nature of the state, the guarantee of full citizenship rights without discrimination on the basis of religion, race or gender. The Association also said these ideas need to be included in the constitution. If the candidates fail to agree among themselves, a "committee of wise men" will be put together to make a binding choice, if the candidates fail to agree. On the gender equality piece, I hope a woman is on the committee.

With regard to the Mubarak approved choice of presidential candidates, Ahmed Shafiq, Hosni Mubarka's last prime minister , says he has the military and political experience to lead Egypt into a new democratic era. Huuhhh? I thought you were with the guy we fired last January 25th, Ahmed? He was disqualified by the Political Isolation Law, which banned former Mubarak officials, then 48 hours later, the Presidential Election Commission reinstated him. Shafiq has close military ties, and is certainly someone the SCAF (the ruling military junta) knows well, and would be comfortable with.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Update on Egypt's Presidential Election

«أبو الفتوح» يعقد مؤتمرا لتدشين برنامجه الانتخابي
Presidential Candidate Aboul Fotouh

Dear readers,

wow, I almost fell off the grid! I have not facebooked, blogged, or done much of anything but teach, write and care for my family over the last few months. But I am trying, I am recommitting, and renewing to the blogosphere.

So where were we? Oh yes, democratizing the new Egypt. That is the ticket. Well, things are a little tough these days. We are coming up on a presidential election in Egypt. The Presidential elections are scheduled for May 23-24th. In the meantime, the Daily News of Egypt is going out of business, which is a real blow to objective reporting in the region. Daily News Egypt: Final Words
 
On April 17, ten presidential hopefuls in Egypt were disqualified from contesting the Presidential election by the head of Egypt's election commission. The head of Egypt's Election Commission is Farouk Sultan. The disqualified include Hosni Mubarak's former spy chief Omar Suleiman, Muslim Brotherhood Khairat el-Shater, Ayman Nour and Hazem Abu Ismail.

Suleiman apparently failed to get enough endorsements from 15 provinces. Shater was barred because he was imprisoned under Mubarak. Although the MB is not my cup of tea, Shater's expulson is particularly unfair because Shater was imprisoned for a political crime under Mubarak. Abu Ismail is out of the race because his mother holds another nationality, which is one of the changes to the constitution made in a referendum last year. Analysis of Specific Provisions of Constitutional Referendum . The Muslim Brotherhood has announced that it will replace Shater with Mohamed Morsy.

According to the Egypt Daily News, "The presidential election starts on May 23 with two days of voting and is expected to go to a June run-off between the top two candidates. Front-runners include the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi, former member of the Islamist group Abdel Moneim Abol Fotoh and former Arab League chief and Egypt's foreign minister for a decade, Amr Moussa." The SCAF is due to hand over power to the elected presidential candidate on July 1, 2012.


Thanassis Cambaniss wrote a prescient analysis for The Atlantic. I heard him on PRI, and his comments rang true. Egyptian Political Transition Faces Crucial Test. He makes a few important points. First, he makes the crucial point that the Presidential Committee is opaque. It is not clear how they were appointed, or how they make their decisions. Their decisions are not subject to appeal, and they are an extension of the power of the SCAF's. I liked his observation that Egypt is struggling with a "fake rule of law. "

I would like to make the observation that although there is an elected parliament, the court system has not experienced any reforms since the Revolution. Further, the executive is being run by the SCAF, which presumably has an interest in who wins the Presidency. Accordingly, two of the three branches are not subject to popular control in any real sense.

On April 19, 2012, The SCAF asked the nation's constitutional court to rule on whether top officials from Hosni Mubarak's era can run for the presidency. Shafiq successfully appealed a decision excluding him from running under the Political Isolation Law, which strips Mubarak era officials of political rights for 10 years.  I agree with the Wasat Party that it is a little hard to understand why Shafiq is being allowed to run, given that he was a prime minister under Mubarak. MP Calls Shafiq reinstatement a threefold scandal

Today, April 26th, 2012, the Presidential Election Commission released its final list of presidential contenders. According to the Egypt Independent, my favorite Egyptian English language paper, the final list includes the following 13 candidates.

  • Freedom and Justice Party nominee Mohamed Morsy, 
  •  
  • Socialist Popular Alliance Party nominee Abul Ezz al-Hariry, 
  •  
  • Democratic Generation Party nominee Mohamed Fawzy Eissa, 
  •  
  • Democratic Peace Party nominee Hossam Khairallah, 
  •  
  • Salafi-oriented Asala Party nominee Abdullah al-Ashal, 
  •  
  • Tagammu Party nominee Hesham al-Bastawisi, 
  •  
  • and independents former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq, 
  •  
  • former Arab League head Amr Moussa, 
  •  
  • Islamist reformer Abdel Moneim Abouel Fotouh, Mahmoud Hossam Galal, 
  •  
  • Islamist Mohamed Selim al-Awa, Nasserist Hamdeen Sabbahi
  •  
  • Leftist attorney Khaled Ali.
These are exciting times for Egypt.  Hopefully, they will be democratic as well as exciting.

~WMB


Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Recap of Election News for Egypt, February 1, 2012

Dear readers

The Egyptian election has a lot of moving parts. Accordingly, it has been a little bit hard to keep track of it all. To date, I have written 29 separate posts on the Egyptian elections.

So, what do we know?

Women 

One thing that I think is very interesting is how few women there are in the Egyptian Parliament. According to the best information I have, there are only 8 (eight) women in the Parliament so far. I assume that most of these women are from the Freedom and Justice Party or the Wafd, but I am trying to get names and specifics on this topic. Here is a good article on the same.

Ibtisam Barakat, Welcome to the New Egyptian Parliament, Jaadaliya,

In some of my previous posts, I had commented on which parties may or may not represent women. The lesson the liberal parties learned (I hope) is that if they really want a diverse party, they need to move minorities closer to the top of the list. It is my educated opinion [which does not make it a fact] that people actually voted for PARTIES, not individuals for the most part in this election. Here are some of my musings on the matter.

Which Egyptian Parties Represent Women?

No women elected to Egypt's parliament in first round

The Elections Aren't Over

Like the Egyptian Revolution, the Egyptian elections just go on, and on, and on, like the Energizer Bunny. The elections for the Egyptian parliament's lower house (People's Assembly) are not even over yet.

There are 498 possible seats. Only 427 have been decided. There are 71 seats remaining. As many as 45 seats will be determined by runoffs. They were supposed to have been held on January 10th, but I will have to look into that.

Shura Council Elections are (were) to be held on January 29th, February 14th, and March 4th in the same sequence as the PA elections were.

The date of the Presidential election has not been decided.

I was Wrong, but not far Wrong

Okay, how did I do on my election predictions?

Well, I predicted the FJP--the political wing of the MB--would win 30%. That was not correct. The FJP has to date won about 45.2%. So I was off by 15%. I predicted El Adl would win 15%. Oops! They only won less than 1%. I predicted that Revolution Continues would win 15%. I was very wrong there. They only won 2.34%. I predicted that the Egyptian Bloc would win 15%. They actually won 7.03%. So, I was wrong, but not crazy on that one. I totally missed the Salafi issue. Some of these errors are due to having lived in Cairo, and teaching at AUC, which is comparatively liberal and secular. Well, now we know.

More soon!~WMB







Monday, January 30, 2012

Good article on El Baradei's resignation

Check out this great article written by my former student John Ehab. It is about El Baradei's decision not to run for the presidency in Egypt. 

Following the high Islamist turnout in Egypt’s parliamentary elections, Mohamed ElBaradei, the former director of the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, and a major political player in the Egyptian revolution, withdrew from the upcoming presidential race. 

"My conscience does not allow me to run for the presidency or any other official position unless there is real democracy," ElBaradei said in his statement announcing his decision. He added that those who are currently holding power in Egypt, the Security Council of Armed Forces (SCAF), are no better than ousted former President Hosni Mubarak. 

One of the most important factors that effected ElBaradei’s pullout was the decision to establish the new constitution after the presidential elections, leaving the president’s role undefined until after the office is filled. 

"It is a great loss, but an honorable political stance," says George Ishak, prominent Egyptian opposition figure and member of the National Association for Change (NAC), which ElBaradei founded. 

Ishak anticipates that the military council and the Islamists, who make up around 70 percent of the newly elected parliament, will coordinate to back a candidate. “The two groups might surprise Egyptians by proposing a surprise candidate that will please both the Islamists and the SCAF."
Whether ElBaradei’s decision will limit the chances of secularists or liberals, it will not affect the influence that the Nobel Prize winner has had in helping build youth networks active in the Egyptian public sphere.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Egypt elections beyond ideology: A return to common sense politics

 

Egypt elections beyond ideology: A return to common sense politics
By   Hamid Eltgani Ali and Warigia Bowman December 13, 2011, 5:00 pm



The first round of Egyptian parliamentary elections is drawing to a close, but in another sense, Egyptian multi-party politics is just beginning. After a partially successful revolution, Egypt is now on a crash course to multi-party democracy. Other countries that have gone through major political transitions from dictatorship to democracy generally have had decades to make the transition. The question many Western observers are asking now is what shape will Egypt’s nascent democracy take? Will it more closely resemble the secular Turkey, or the more theocratic Iran?

 As news reports have indicated, the results of the first round of elections have been discouraging for those who support a secular state in Egypt. Based on our quantitative analysis of publicly available ex post election data after the first round of voting, the Islamists performed exceptionally well in comparatively rural areas with low political capital such as Fayoum and Luxor.

By contrast, liberal and moderate parties, taken altogether, won only 27 percent of total votes and performed relatively well in highly urbanized areas of high political capital like Cairo, Alexandria and Port Said. Liberal candidates are likely to do worse in the second and third rounds of voting which will be held in parts of rural Egypt that are likely to be less progressive and politically sophisticated than Cairo, the Red Sea and The Delta.

Given results in the first round of the Egyptian elections, what lessons can be learned?

Given what we  have seen in the first round of the Egyptian elections,  what lessons can be learned? First of all, liberal parties made a serious miscalculation by running numerous separate lists. Many of the parties in the Revolution Continues Alliance (RCA) withdrew from the Bloc allegedly due to inter-party conflicts. The only liberal party that has done well in the elections has been The Egyptian Bloc, which has captured 14 percent of the available seats thus far. Liberal parties are doing even worse under the single-winner system. In the first round of runoffs, 47 of the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidates (Freedom and Justice Party) made it to the runoffs. The far right Islamist party Al Nour has secured 27 candidates in the first round of runoffs. By contrast, the Egyptian Bloc only had 9 candidates in runoffs. The liberal and moderate parties need to resolve their differences and work as a unit to gain any seats.

The second lesson to be learned is that Egyptians have not yet embraced an ideological approach to politics. The conservative right and liberal left categories which categorize Europe simply do not apply well here, accordingly labels and ideologies are not useful campaign tools. Rather, parties can more easily be divided along a crucial axis: support for a secular state, or support for a religious (Islamic) state. The second lesson to be learned here, then, all parties must figure out what matters to them and campaign on issues,  like how they will reduce unemployement, not ideologies. The Egyptian people do not know what “social justice,” means yet. But they do know what a hungry stomach feels like.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Happy Armed Forces Day



Today is Armed Forces Day in Egypt. It is a national holiday. The SCAF, using its Facebook page,  has invited the Egyptian public to celebrate the 38th Anniversary of the October war in various public spaces in Cairo. The anniversary celebrates Egypt's military victories against Israel in the 1973 October War. Strikes me as rather Soviet. Also the focus on opposing Israel tends to distract people from the real problems at home.
 
Personally, I do not think there is very much to be happy about with regard to the Egyptian Armed Forces. As the eloquent protester in Tahrir has put it, we have traded one dictatorial government for another. Mubarak is gone, but Egypt is currently ruled by a military junta. The transition is going very slowly, and there are fears that there will not be a democratic transition at all. It is good news that we have a firm date for upcoming People's Assembly elections. However, the presidential elections are still far off, and the SCAF does not want to allow the parliament to have the power to review the military budget. Such a restriction would eviscerate parliament's power of the purse, and keep Egypt from being a true democracy.

There may be a massive protest tomorrow to demand a timetable for handing over power from SCAF to an elected civilian authority. The days when the people and the army were one hand seem far away . . .As the Beatles sang, Yesterday, all my troubles seemed so far away, now they look as if they're here to stay . . . sigh . . .

Regardless, my favorite newspaper Al Masry Al Youm reports that six presidential hopefuls have prepared a potential timetable for the transfer of power to an elected civilian president by April 15, 2012. This timetable intends to shorten the transitional period, which appears to be harming Egypt's economy. Indeed, the Minister of Manpower and Immigration, Ahmed al-Borai stated on Wednesday that Egypt is on the brink of bankruptcy. He cautioned Egyptian workers against "excessive demands."

The presidential candidates wish to submit their candidacy papers two weeks after the Shura council elections conclude. The period for presidential campaigning would run from February 15th to the end of March. The elections would begin on April 1, with runoffs on April 10, 2012. This accelerated timetable is in response to a constitutional declaration issued by the SCAF on September 25th stating that presidential elections will be held at the end of 2012, or the start of 2013.

Meanwhile, Noha El-Hennawy reports that some worry the generals may be eyeing the presidency. Under the military's plan, the generals will remain in charge until the end of 2012 at the earliest. This contradicts their initial pledges, which were that the SCAF would return to the barracks six months after presidential and parliamentary elections. The plan has changed repeatedly. Many fear the military is stretching the transitional period to prepare the ground for a general to run for president.

Ruling Council's proposed timetable ignites fears of a military president

In further political woes, Sarah Carr reports that my favorite Egyptian party, the SDP is riven by divisions. I cannot believe that they signed a document last Saturday in support of the SCAF! What is going on people? I am really feeling shocked and dissappointed. Mohamed Abul Ghar, ESDP's leaders said he left the meeting early and found that a paragraph had been inserted into the statement saying "the signatory parties ...declare their complete support for SCAF and recognize the role SCAF has played in protecting the revolution and transferring power to the people." Abul Ghar disavows this statement.

Egyptian Social Democratic Party Divided over military council statement

Political Parties Divided after some sign statement in support of military council 

Well folks, things are not going that well. Prayers for the Egyptian people. 


Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Political parties, election dates, and other news you can use

According to my favorite newspaper, Al Masry Al Youm, the SCAF plans to announce the exact dates of the People's Assembly  (lower house) and Shura Council (upper house) elections on September 26, 2011.   Taken together, the People's Assembly and the Shura form the Egyptian parliament.

The SCAF is likely to set November 21, as the starting date for parliamentary elections, according to Al Ahram, the state-run newspaper. However a different source said that the the People's Assembly elections may be on November 21, 2011 and the Shura council elections on Feb 22d, 2012. Each election will be associated with a series of runoffs.

No date has been set for the presidential poll. 

Minister of Local Development Mohamed Ahmed Attiya, according to Al Masry Al Youm, has expressed concerns that the SCAF may cancel the single winner voting system, and only allow elections based on proportional list-based voting.

Various political parties expressed concerns that rules may allow loyalists of the NDP to reemerge. The Muslim Brotherhood has pushed for an election based on proportional lists. Under this system, parties or alliances draw up a list, and voters choose between the different lists, rather than the individuals. South Africa uses such a system.

The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party announced on September 19th that it will compete for more than 40 percent of the 504 seats in the parliament.  This is down from their previous estimates that they would compete for 50 percent of seats. The MB is seen as one of the most organized political forces in Egypt. Other Islamist parties include al-Nour which follows the strict Salafi school of Islam. Further, Egypt's Shia minority, which was oppressed and kept out of both social and political life under Mubarak, has announced that it will form a party. Experts say the Shia may represent less than 100,000 Egyptians. The Shia party will likely be called the Unity and Freedom Party.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

When will the Egyptian Parliamentary and Presidential Elections be Held?

The million dollar question is when will elections be held in Egypt? The short answer is that it is not yet clear.

Presidential hopefuls, including Mohammed El Baradei have asked that the SCAF hold the upcoming Presidential elections in February. Seven presidential candidates met on Tuesday.

Al Masry al Youm reports

Presidential hopefuls Mohamed ElBaradei, Amr Moussa, Mohamed Selim al-Awa, Abdel Moneim Abouel Fotouh, Hamdeen Sabbahi and Hazem Abu Ismail took part in the meeting, in addition to Hesham el-Bastawisi, who participated via telephone from abroad.

On September 14, the SCAF said that it is willing to amend the law on parliamentary elections currently scheduled for November. The Egyptian parliament is composed of two houses: The People's Assembly and the Shura. However, it says that 50 percent of seats should go to workers, and 50 percent to farmers. This is interesting, because who will decide and define who workers are and who farmers are.

In July, the SCAF passed a law suggesting that half the parliament should be elected on an individual basis and half the parliament should be elected on a proportional closed list basis. The press says that the "Military council passed a law." However, in the absence of a parliament, perhaps the correct terminology should be that the "military council issued a decree."

In August, Egypt's High Election Commission formed six subcommittees to manage the oversight of parliamentary elections. These subcommittees are in charge of 1) voting and balloting stations 2) voters lists including names and IDs 3) candidates campaign logos 4) investigating and addressing elections related complaints 5) the participation of election observers 6) rules regulating electoral propaganda.
The Muslim Brotherhood, however, does not want any delays. They say that the legitimacy of the transitional period will end on September 27th.

However, many analysts say that the MB, Islamists, and the remnants of the old regime wish to have elections as soon as possible, because there forces are more organized. The sooner elections are held, the better the MB and NDP will do. Later elections will assist the secular groups, and leftists. The risk, however, is that delaying elections will result in no elections.  Further, by delaying elections, the SCAF is left in place, which increases the period of time during which Egypt is ruled by a military junta.


Meanwhile, in another ominous portent, Al Jazeera's Mubashr Misr channel has been shut down and new satellite channels will not be authorized. Without a free media, it is difficult to hold a free and fair election. Some analysts worry that this media crackdown is an effort to prevent coverage of vote-rigging and other anti-democratic practices.

Sources

http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/495780
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/495805
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/495770
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/484067

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Does Shariah Allow Women to Vote?


 Women voters stand in line to cast their ballot in Egypt's first major democratic vote, the Constitutional Referendum, 2011. Photo Credit: the author.


Sometimes I can see what people are interested in by what they type into search engines in order to get to my site. This morning, I saw the following question: Does Shariah allow women to vote? This is an interesting question. Again, we must make the distinction between Shariah, and fiqh, which is Islamic Jurisprudence as applied.

I think that we should start this inquiry with reflections upon the words of Arzu Merali, the Director of Research for the Islamic Human Rights Commission. Writing in The Guardian, she notes that neither men nor women could vote under Mullah Omar's regime in Afghanistan. Mullah Omar was the spiritual leader of the Taliban, and was Afghanistan's "head of state," from 1996 to 2001. She makes the important point that the cruel excesses and limitations upon womens' rights in Taliban-led Afghanistan must be seen as an indictment of the Taliban's prejudices, and cultural views, not an indictment of Islam.

By the way, I myself am not a practicing Muslim. I am a practicing Presbyterian and sometimes Unitarian Universalist. However, I have a deep respect for many of the world's great religions, including Islam, Buddhism, Christianity and Judaism. Zakat, which is a pillar of Islam, is basically tithing. Ramadan, which is a pillar of Islam, is basically a more rigorous version of Lent. Accordingly, do not interpret my words as an attempt to convert you. Rather, interpret my words as an attempt to "get it right."

Saraji Umm Zaid, writing at modernmuslima, makes a very important point. She notes that we must respect Shariah, but that we should not fall into the trap of focusing on the "virtues of the Ideal Place of Women in Ideal Islam." Rather, we must confront the reality on the ground. It is not enough, she argues, to simply place all the negative aspects of how women are treated in predominantly Muslim societies, on "culture." She notes that among conservative Muslims,

[] there is a resounding silence when the issue being raised is Female Genital Mutilation (FGM), honor killings, forced marriages, the unequal application of hadd punishments on women, or the denial of education to girls and women. 

Saraji Umm Zaid urges the average Muslim to petition governments, and urge for change against these practices. She states that Muslims can no longer afford to be silent about human rights abuses, especially those committed against women, in the name of Islam. I provide a long quote from her here, because her words are simply brilliant:

Prophet Mohammed, sallalahu aleyhi wa salaam, was mocked and assaulted because of his strong and courageous stance on the status of women.  He came with a message that lifted women up and gave them dignity.  Fourteen hundred years later, we have descended back into the dark pit of Jahiliya, and Muslim women around the world find themselves cast into the same slavery that the Prophet, sallalahu aleyhi wa salaam, was sent to liberate them from.

It does not make you a "radical feminist" to decry honor killings and volunteer for peaceful campaigns to educate and change laws.  Raising your voice against Female Genital Mutilation does not mean you want to "undermine Islam."  To the contrary, working against these injustices in the way of Allah is a manifestation of the desire to uplift Islam and the Muslim people.

When the Taliban decided to deny education to any girl over a certain age, it is the conservative Muslims, the ones who profess adherence to "Qur'an and Sunnah" that should have spoken the loudest against this.  The longer we stay silent, the more people, both Muslim and non Muslim, will begin to equate "Shar'ia" with the oppression of women.

Returning to the topic of voting, the teachings of Islam, according to Jamal A. Badawi, author of "The Status of Women in Islam," Al-lttihad, Vol. 8, No. 2, Sha'ban 1391/Sept 1971, informs us that Islam gives women the right of election, as well as of nomination to political offices. Women have the right to participate in political affairs and the Holy Quran gives examples of women who participated in political discussions and even argued with the Prophet Mohammed (See Qur'an 58: 14 and 60: 10-12).

Interestingly, Pakistan, a predominantly Muslim country, has had a woman head of state, Benazir Bhutto, and several other prominent female politicians. According to Saimah Ashraf, women in Pakistan are allowed to drive, vote, attend co-educational universities, and hold paying jobs.That being said, life in Pakistan is not very pleasant for women, as there are honor killings and high rates of violence against women there, but that is another topic.

Certainly, women just voted in the last referendum here in Egypt, and the Egyptian legal system is based in part on Shariah. The Parliament in Egypt is currently suspended, so no women or men are serving in it. The country is being run by the SCAF, which appears to be composed entirely of men. There is certainly a lot of room to expand the role and influence of women in Egypt now that the country is in the process of forming new political parties.

The right to vote was established in Iran in 1963. Iran has a very high number of women in Parliament, and women form more than half the entering class in Iran's universities according to Simin Royanian as well as an article in the BBC by Roxana Saberi. According to that article Women in Iran's Parliament are very active, and women also serve in local government. However, in Iran, women cannot be judges, and have many social rights restricted. President Ahmadinejad is quite conservative on the role of women, and wants them home with their families.There is a lot of room for improvement on the political role of women in Iran. According to Raz Zimmt, writing about Iran's parliamentary elections, currently only eight women have been elected in the 8th Majlis (elected in March 2008), in comparison to four women in the first, second, and third Majlis; nine in the fourth Majlis; 14 in the fifth and sixth Majlis sessions; and 13 in the seventh.

I have not had time to review the situation of women and the vote in Saudi Arabia, but this quick survey indicates that under Shariah, women certainly have the right to vote, and in many countries that are governed by Islamic Jurisprudence, women have that right as well. 


I would like to leave you with some wise words from Dr. Christina Jones, a professor of Law from Germany with expertise in Islamic Law:

I would like to leave you with the following proposition: It is possible to use Islamic law in the interests of women's rights. It is possible to combine the very best for women from all of the interpretations of the Quranic text. The decision to do this is political.



Sunday, April 3, 2011

Protecting Freedom of Information in Egypt: What is Old is New Again

 


Please read the rest of this article in Al Masry Al Youm.  WMB
Freedom of Information and freedom of expression are under fierce and sustained attack in Egypt, North Africa and the Middle East. Innovative solutions are required to protect our right of assembly, our right to dialogue, our freedom of the press, our right to form political parties, and our right to communicate with our global neighbors.  Yet sometimes the answers are right in front of us.
Much has been written about how "Army and the people are one hand" in Egypt. Overall, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces has exercised a competent and relatively benign approach to governing Egypt. Yet, lest we lapse into complacency, there are some warning signs, particularly in the area of free expression and freedom of information.
First, the right of the Egyptian people to organize themselves into political groupings of their choice is under attack. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for September. This gives political parties only five months to form and prepare for elections. This short time line arguably heavily favors already established groups.  New parties will need the approval of at least 5000 voters from ten of Egypt's 29 provinces. I attended a lecture at the American University in Cairo at Tahrir Square on Tuesday night, in which the Nevine Mossad, Amr El Shobaky, Samer Soliman, and Ibrahim El Issawy said that this provision also requires publication in two major newspapers. The costs for this kind of publication could run to one million Egyptian pounds, which will likely disadvantage new parties.

Continue reading in Al Masry Al Youm

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Winter for Egyptian Democracy


Article first published as Winter for Egyptian Democracy on Blogcritics.

It is winter in Egypt. The days are overcast, and surprisingly cold. Whereas the United States is celebrating the arrival of the cherry blossoms, here we just have sand and more sand, punctuated by palm trees and formal shrubs such as arbor vitae, which all look like they need a bit more water. Overall, the news from Egypt is not that heartening, from the standpoint of ensuring democracy. The New York Times reports seem upbeat. I am an optimist, however, the coverage in Cairo gives me pause, and the mood is calm, but concerned.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled for September. This gives political parties five months to form and prepare for elections. This short time line arguably heavily favors already established groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and the National Democratic Party. New parties will need the approval of at least 5000 voters from ten of Egypt's 29 provinces. I attended a lecture at the American University in Cairo on Tuesday night, in which the analysts said that this provision also requires publication in two major newspapers. The costs for this could run to one million Egyptian pounds, which would also disadvantage new parties.

A controversial law on political parties is also being bandied about that would disallow political parties with religious backgrounds. The Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) enacted a political party formation law which would ban parties based on religion. One potential problem with such a law is how one determines whether a party is based on religion. What criteria will be used for this determination? In my view, this law is potentially repressive. The presidential election has also been postponed.

After some highly questionable amendments to the repressive 1971 Constitution were rushed through in the past week without adequate time for national dialogue, Al Jazeera reports that an entirely new constitution will be drawn up after the election, but exactly when it will be put in place is unclear. The fact that a vote was held on the constitution was momentous, as was the high turnout, and the largely peaceful conduct of the vote. The amendments were written by a secretive group appointed by the military with no discernible criteria, and then were rushed through in four weeks. The vote  was held without adequate time or education for national dialogue in a country with a thirty percent illiteracy rate. I am concerned.