Democracy under assault after Egyptian election

Egyptian soldiers near Tahrir in February 2011. Photo Credit Al Ahram.

Let me begin my post by telling you the word on the street, and then, I will update you on the "official news."

First of all, a completely non-scientific sample of people in my life produced the following election results. My office manager, who is actually a very observant Muslim, said that "at least if Shafiq is elected, we will have a civilized country, not a religious one." I think she meant civilian, or secular, but point well taken. My taxi driver had no idea what the dismissal of parliament meant, but was very gung ho about Shafiq. My favorite tour operator, who is very literate in both English and Arabic, and quite politically savvy chose Morsi, as the more revolutionarily appropriate choice.

Anyway, what I have heard this morning in New Cairo from a fellow law professor and a colleague at the UN is that Morsi has won, unofficially. That being said, the SCAF has also issued a decree strictly limiting the powers of the presidency. They also told me that the SCAF will appoint the Constituent Assembly, draft a constitution in three months, and then additional parliamentary elections will be held. Further, there is buzz that the SCAF will make all provisions in the Constitution appealable to the Supreme Constitutional Court. I have also heard that the military now has the power to arrest civilians for assembling in public, and other infractions.

Brief thoughts. If Morsy won, then the election was more or less free and fair, because the SCAF wanted Shafiq, one of their own. Then again, what is the point of having a President in the absence of a parliament. It is also yet to be seen if the president will actually be allowed to assume power. Further, I am not a fan of this rushed constitutional process. I also do not think that you can write a constitution from the top down. It must be a consensus process which is widely accepted by the populace. This cannot be attained if the SCAF appoints the members it desires with no feedback from Parliament or other major social organizations. Finally, as I have noted in previous posts, the courts are completely unreconstructed from before the Revolution. They are all Mubarak appointees. The Supreme Constitutional Court members were all picked by the former regime, which feels a lot like the current regime today. It is lunacy to give the Court the power to evaluate which clauses it approves. This is legally problematic at multiple levels. It will take me time to digest that.

Okay, so now, what does the paper say? Al Masry Al Youm says that according to their count (unofficial) Morsy wins with 51.3 percent of the vote. The news also confirms the expansion of military powers. Amended Article 60 gives the military to appoint the Constituent Assembly if the CA developed by the parliament does not fulfil its role.

Check this out.

The SCAF, the president, the prime minister, the Supreme Judicial Council, or one-fifth of the Constituent Assembly have the right to contest any clause issued by the Constituent Assembly if “it is in opposition to the goals of the revolution or its basic principles… or the common principles of Egypt’s past constitutions.”

The assembly would have to revisit the contested clause or clauses within 15 days, and if the contention holds the Supreme Constitutional Court should have the final word.

What?? So, the Supreme Constitutional Court gets to rule on the constitutionality of the Constitution? Very puzzling.

According to Al Ahram, which is nominally state controlled, Morsi fans are already celebrating his election.  AUC Professor, former MP, and liberal political figure Amr Hamzawy laments the restrictions on the newly elected president's powers.

Here is the text of the SCAF amendments (Made by decree) to the constitutional document. Given the frequency with the SCAF rules by decree, the document is beginning to look like a list of military orders.   

So what is the score card? Parliament: mainly Islamist, but some secular forces, few regime forces, only democratically elected institution in Egypt. Status. Dissolved, technically, but impressively defiant. . Judiciary: strong hold of Mubarak Regime appointees. Status. Very powerful. SCAF: the military, secular, but corrupt with strong ties to Mubarak Regime. Status: Currently holds executive and legislative power. President: election results not yet finalized, but Islamist. Status: unclear if president will really be able to be sworn in. 

Here is the New York Times take. The bottom line is that a power struggle is emerging between those who want a civilian state and those who want a military state. Within the coalition of those who do not want a military state, there is a conflict between Islamists and secularists. The Islamists and secularists will have to find an accommodation if they wish to work together against the old forces of Mubarak, now embodied in the SCAF. That is not going to be an easy pill to swallow, but as always, I am cautiously optimistic.   

~WMB
  

Confusion after court rulings in Egypt

Last night I was meeting with a friend who is active in a major secular party in Egypt. There was some confusion about the future of the party. Yesterday's court ruling invalidated all the seats won by independents in parliament: approximately 1/3 of the seats. As a result, the parliament is effectively disbanded, because there are not enough people in parliament to hold sessions.

Hundreds in Tahrir Protest against Supreme Court rulings.

I cannot verify this, but my friend said that even if Shafiq wins, if the Parliament is disbanded, there will be no one to swear him in. Therefore, whoever wins the presidential election may not actually be in power until the parliament is reconstituted.

Egypt's high court calls for dissolution of Parliament.

I was at the Marriot in Zamalek for a lecture on "The Arab Awakening: One Year On." The lecture was held by the AUC. After the lecture, I spoke with my friend on the outdoor patio, so that he could smoke a cigarette. Who did we run into but Amr Hamzawy, my former colleague at the PPAD. He was with his beautiful wife, Basma. He looked a little stressed, because he is one of the independents who have now lost their seats. But, he was optimistic.

Blow to Transition as Court invalidates Parliament.

Many at the conference I attended last night, referred to the events as a "coup." Further, my friend suggested that the courts are not independent, and are actually controlled by the SCAF. Indeed, the courts have been operating with little or no reform since the Revolution.

Parliament's Dissolution Could Postpone Presidential Election.

Ironically, I had a girl's lunch at one thirty, and one of my colleagues who works at the UNDP told us that one third of parliament would be dismissed, and that Shafiq would be allowed to run. By two thirty, her predictions were confirmed. 

Political Parties, Lists and things it would be nice to know about the Upcoming Egyptian Parliamentary Elections

Photo Credit Al Ahram online. Popular Socialist Alliance Street Party.

 Dear readers

A reader has made the excellent request that I try to assemble information about all parties and lists in one page. This page will be a running assessment of the state of political life in Egypt as the parliamentary elections approach. I will try to update it as frequently as possible. This information may be available in one place at the Higher Elections Commission. However, it is all in Arabic. So I am creating a database from the Egyptian press. I am reading the English press, and my students the Arabic Press.

When will the elections be held?

Parliamentary elections  for the people's assembly are scheduled to start on November 28th, 2011. Following rounds of elections will be held on December 5th, and December 14th.

My students and I think that this system of having some governorates vote first, and then others follow is very problematic. Governorates in later elections will observe the results of the Cairo vote, and then change their votes accordingly. The outcomes of the earlier votes will affect the outcomes of the later votes.

The Shura Council Poll will being on January 29th, and end on March 11, 2012. 

How many seats are up for grabs? 

There are 498 seats in the People's Assembly which will be decided by election. Another 10 seats will be appointed, making the total number of seats in the People's Assembly 508.

Shura Council will have 180 elected seats, and 90 presidentially appointed seats, for a total of 270 seats in the upper house.One question is who will appoint the 90 seats in the absence of a President in Egypt.

How do the election stages work? 

The first stage of elections will be held between November 28th and the 5th of December. It includes Egypt's most popular governerates, Cairo and Alexandria, as well as Fayoum, Port Said, Damietta, Kafr Al-Sheikh, Assiut, Luxor and the Red Sea.

How many political parties are there in Egypt?

As many as 55 political parties, (as of November 14, 2011) most of which were formed after the January 25th Revolution, will compete in the parliamentary elections.

How many electoral districts are there in Egypt? 

There are 46 electoral districts covered by the party list system, and 83 districts covered by the individual candidacy system. Source: Gamal Assam El Din, "Egypt's Opposition Slams Proposed Electoral Changes," Ahram Online, September 26, 2011.

How many candidates have registered? 

Over 15,000 candidates have registered (As of October 29, 2011). Over 8600 have registered as independents. 6600 have registered for the People's Assembly. More than 2000 have registered for the Shura Council.

What are the main Alliances?

There are four main electoral blocs, which span the political spectrum. Although Egypt does have a left, I believe it is inaccurate, in my view, to say it has a "right," as that concept is understood in Europe. It has a secular side and a more fundamentalist religious side.

Left/Liberal

Egyptian Bloc: Free Egyptians (Free Enterprise), Egyptian Social Democratic Party, Tagmmu Party (old school leftist)
The Revolution Continues: Socialist Popular Alliance Party, Egyptian Socialist Party, Egypt Freedom (Amr Hamzawy), Equality and Development, Egyptian Current, Revolution Youth Coalition

Right/Religious

Democratic Alliance: (12 parties) Muslim Brotherhood, Ghad Party, Al-Karama (Nasserist)
Islamist Alliance: Nour Party (Salafis), Asala, the Salafist Current, the Construction and Development Party (Al-Jamaa Al-Islamiya)


What are some of the other parties in Egypt?


Overview of Political Parties from The Arabist.

Map of Egypt's Political Parties

Overview of Political Parties from the Carnegie Endowment.This is by Marina Ottaway, a respected academic with a lot of expertise on both Africa and the Middle East.

The Emerging Political Spectrum in Egypt

Here is information about parties I have gleaned from Newspapers.

Unity Party (Hossam Badrawy/NDP)
Wafd (liberal/NDP)

Egyptian Communist Party (not running/boycotting)
Egypt Above All Coalition (Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi)
El Adl (liberal/free enterprise)
Democratic Front Party (liberal)
Horreya Party (NDP cover)
Egyptian Citizen Party (NDP Cover)
National Egypt Party (NDP Cover)  (60 former NDP members)

Note: The High Administrative Court in Mansoura, Dakahlia governorate, has banned all members of the NDP from running for parliament. The General Electoral Committee in the governorate should reject the nomination papers of any candidate who was a member of NDP. It is not clear if the ruling will apply only in Dakhalia or across Egypt. According to Reuters, however, on November 15, 2011, Judge Magdy E-Agaty of the Higher Administrative Court has overturned the verdict. According to the Daily News Egypt, former NDP members have set up at least 6 parties. 

Will Expatriates be Allowed to Vote?

Maybe. Prime Minister Essam Sharaf held a meeting this weekend (November 10, 2011) with several cabinet members to discuss whether expatriates can vote. They may be allowed to vote in Egyptian embassies abroad.

Who Can Monitor Elections?

Only Egyptians can monitor elections. International election monitors will not be allowed. The Egyptian Council for Human Rights has received 7168 requests from NGOs to monitor elections.

What Kind of Electoral System will be Used?

The elections will combine a list system as well as a single winner system. One third of the seats will be based on a single winner system. Two thirds of the seats in the People's Assembly will be elected based on the closed list system. For more on the list system, read here. The Book of Lists.

The number of candidates on each party list differs. Voters will elect a fixed number of party based candidates depending on the voting district.

North Cairo will elect 10 party based deputies. Nasr City will elect eight. Cairo's four districts will return 36 MPs from the party list system.

The city is divided into nine districts which will produce 18 MPs from the single winner system. 

When Did Parties Gain Recognition? 
The Nour Party (Salafis) was founded in the coastal city of Alexandria. It won official recognition on June 12, 2011. The Islamist coalition could win as many as 30 percent of parliament's seats.

Okay, I will update this as time allows. ~WMB

Updated November 14, 2011 4:00 p.m.
Updated November 15, 2011 10:00 a.m.; 4:35 p.m.
Updated November 16, 2011 11;04 a.m. 

Sources
Al Masry Al Youm
Ahram Online
Al Ahram Weekly
Al Jazeera
New York Times
Washington Post
Interviews
AUC Today
Daily News Egypt
Carnegie Endowment

The Military and Maspero

The smoky haze created by the social fire called the Maspero tragedy still blankets Egypt.

As I have reported in earlier posts, deadly clashes between the military, unarmed Coptic Christian protesters, and thugs left at least 26 dead, and more than 300 injured last week. The SCAF has promised to form a fact-finding committee. The clashes were some of the worst violence the country has seen since the January 25th Revolution. ("Egypt Army seeks probe into Cairo clashes," AlJazeera.net, October 11, 2011) 

International rights groups condemned the Maspero violence, including the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom, Human Rights Watch, and the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Some have called on the US to withhold military aid to Egypt. Military aid to Egypt may be worth as much as 1.3 billion dollars. US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton spoke on the phone with Minister of Foreign Affairs Amr Mohamed to offer condolences to the victims of the Maspero violence. ("US rights groups slam Egypt's military for Maspero violence, Al Masry al Youm, October, 12, 2011)

The Egyptian military denied charges that the military used live ammunition on protesters, and also denied that army vehicles crushed demonstrators under their wheels. (Amirah Ibrahim, "We did not Kill protesters," Al Ahram Weekly, Week of October 16, 2011) Members of the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces denied at a press conference that soldiers used weapons or force during the protest. (Rana Khazbak, "Military denies use of forces, accuses protesters of armed violence in Maspero, Al Masry Al Youm, October, 12, 2011)

However, online videos, as well as credible journalists present at the scene give credence to these allegations. ("Egypt's Army Defends Actions in Protest Crackdown," Al Masry Al Youm, October 12, 2011) General Mahmoud Hegazy, a member of the SCAF asserts that the armed forces "would never and have never opened fire on the people." (Ibid) The Army pins the blame for inciting violence on foreign elements.The SCAF has released its own videos showing individuals attacking soldiers with stones and a sword. (Al Ahram)

Major General Adel Emara claims that tear gas was used for riot control. He claimed that a soldier was driving an armored vehicle to disperse the crowd, when the vehicle was set on fire. He claims the driver was badly injured. (Khazbak,"Military denies use of force") Initial hospital reports show that most victims were killed by gunfire, or by being crushed by military vehicles. Emara accused the protesters of possessing firearms and antagonizing the armed forces. (Ibid.) He showed a video of protesters setting civilian cars on fire, and claimed that the priest was inciting people to violence. He called soldiers involved in the incident "martyrs."

According to a Reuters report on October 11, 2011,  the SCAF is increasingly viewed as a new autocrat, borrowing a page from Mubarak's handbook. Christians and Muslims alike, reports reuters, say that the army's reaction during the Maspero event was as brutal as any of Mubarak's tactics. The Egyptian citizenry is increasingly impatient with Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, 75, the leader of the SCAF and a veteran of the 73 war against Israel.

Al Masry Al Youm, Egypt's most respected independent newspaper, condemned the military's actions in the Maspero tragedy. (Al Masry Editorial, "The military has gone too far, Al Masry al youm, October 11, 2011) They state a peaceful protest was met with excessive force by the military and the police. They urge that all those responsible for the violence be held accountable. The paper called for an elected government as soon as possible.

Amr Hamzawy, an activist and political force, and also a faculty member in my department at AUC, stated that " the partnership between the authorities, . . . the SCAF, the cabinet, and the citizens, is over. "("With Clashes, Egyptians Lose Trust in Military Ruler," Al Masry Al Youm, October 11, 2011) The New York Times reports that confidence in the SCAF reached a "breaking point" when the military tried to place blame for the deaths on the Coptic protesters, and denied the use of live ammunition. David Kirkpatrick, "Egypt's Military Expands Power, Raising Alarms." The New York Times, October 14, 2011)

As long as no presidential election is held, reports Reuters, executive power will remain in the hands of the military. The times quotes Maj. Gen Mahmoud Hegazy as saying the military will stay in power until Egypt has a president. Since no timetable has yet been set for presidential elections, this could mean that the SCAF stays in power well into 2013. (Ibid)

The Muslim Brotherhood blames remnants of the NDP, the party of Mubarak--now disbanded--for the violence in Maspero. MB Supreme Guide Mohamed Badie says that NDP members had threatened to set "Egypt on fire," if they were banned from political activity. He recommended an elected parliament, and an Ombudsman. (DPA, "Brotherhood supreme guide: NDP remnants behind Maspero bloodshed," Al Masry Al Youm, October 12, 2011)

The Daily News Egypt reports that Egyptians are worried, because the Army draws broadly from the national population. The idea that the military would attack civilians has thrown them into "shocked confusion."Sarah El-Deeb, "Stunned by bloodshed, Egyptians torn over army," Daily News Egypt, October 17, 2011). Sheik Osama raised an Orthodox Cross among mourners to show his support for Christian victims at a vigil Thursday. One woman, whose fiance was killed, said a military police officer kicked her fiance's corpse and hit him and called her "an infidel." (Ibid)

Lecture by Amr Hamzawy: Egyptians Need Political Awareness

Dear readers

I attended a lecture at Bassily Auditorium at the AUC New Cairo on April 8, 2011. The speaker was Dr. Amr Hamzawy. Dr. Hamzawy, who irritatingly is the exact same age that I am, earned his doctorate at the Free University in Berlin. He has announced his intention to form a new political party , the Egyptian Social Democratic Party. He has worked at the Carnegie Endowment, and currently teaches at Cairo University. Learn more about him here and also here. Again, translation was provided by a student. He spoke incredibly fast, so I have done my best here.  I summarize in some places indicated by [...] I was unable to stay for the question and answer period, but this represents the entire formal lecture. WMB

"I worked at Carnegie in Beirut. I write a monthly report. I teach political science in Cairo University. I am so happy to be teaching at Cairo University where I graduated. This is a very important time in Egyptian History. All of you are living it and joining in it."

"I am happy with the new Prime Minister. I am working with the Ministry of Youth. I am 43 years old. I am engaging with the Youth Ministry in the upper governorates of Egypt, not just Cairo and Alexandria. I have closen this role, I have not been forced into it."

"We are in a transitional phase in Egypt. It is not the role of political analysts to take a political job. They should raise awareness instead. There are four main points I want to make. {He did not immediately say what those were. They came out later} We as Egyptian youth, we need awareness and engagement. I do not think we should have one organization for young people. Youth should participate in all parties, and in all organizations."

"What is happening now in Egypt? The worry of all Egyptians, the changes we have asked for, the demands we have made are not being implemented quickly enough. This is causing worry. There is fear. People are worried because elections are taking place very fast. It is normal that we have fear and concerns. We never thought about having a real competitive election. We do not know how to participate in elections."

"Yet, do not let this fear and worry [paralyze you]. Do not become victims of the fear. Now, because of this fear, people may not engage enough in political life. There is a fear that one party will take over {Probably referring to Muslim Brotherhood here}. This will lead to where we have been in the past where only 2 to 3 percent of people were engaging in civilian life."

"We might be afraid to make a decision. It is hard to make up your mind. Or, if you go and make up your mind to vote for someone, you do not know if he will win. We must control our fear so that we can make decisions and form political parties. How do we deal with this fear?"

"We must be organized as Egyptians. We need more knowledge about politics in Egypt. The youth should care about this. We need a lot of political awareness all over Egypt. Awareness, Awareness, Awareness. We have to create awareness to make people feel secure".

"1. Make Egyptians Feel that they have freedom of choice
2. Social Media. We can use nontraditional media in an organized way to handle our fear. Discuss our fears in a written format, verbally, online.
3. Organize events like the one we are sitting in now. Encourage people to have events in the villages. Go outside Cairo, go outside Alexandria. Have an organization to teach people about democracy all over Egypt.
4. Each person has his own society, his friends, his family, his mosque. Teach them. Some people are asking for things to calm down. [Tell them that we need to ask for our rights] Discuss with family, neighbors. People are asking for their rights."

"There are four main ways to deal with fear."

"People are afraid that the religious parties will take over. [It is important to understand] that democracy will not always lead to what you want. This does not change the normal life. There is the fear that the liberal people want to cancel the identity of Islam in Egypt. There is a contrast. On the one hand, people worry that there will be a Muslim Brotherhood takeover. On the other hand, people worry that Egypt will lose its identity as a Muslim nation. [These fears are exaggerated]"

"What are the challenges that we are facing here in Egypt?

1. We got rid of some of the people in the old regime, but the system is still in place. Aside from the removal of the President and the Parliament, the entire system is still in place. We should question and investigate everyone in every hierarcy in the country. We need an appraisal. We need to question everything going forward. Everyone should be held accountable for his actions. There should be freedom of ideas. Everyone should accept others' ideas. The people should be comfortable with accountability and questioning whether something is [being done correctly in government].

2. If you want to move to democracy, all our energy should not be exhausted on [removing] the old regime. Building democracy requires a longer time frame. The first step is the Constitution. The changes to the Constitution [should take place] in September, after the elections. The change of the Constitution should take place. All of us should engage in discussion. What do we want the new identity of Egypt to be? People from the military cannot just write the Constitution. People need to engage, and the [Constitution] has to represent us. We have to believe in it and [have ownership].

3. Parliamentary elections [something about fundraising, something about legal framework]. Get to know the people. Some want liberty, others want social equality. Everyone who comes up with a party program has to be responsible for it. Each Egyptian has three roles. (1) Go for the election (2) Monitor the election (3) Be a source of news for what you see. The coming elections will not be perfect. After parliamentary elections come the presidential election. We have to think about what we want. Do not think about [which candidate] you like, but about your demands.

4. Think about the hierarchy of responsibility in Egypt. We come from an autocratic system. Do you want the old way, where one person [Mubarak] is in changre of everything, or someone who gives responsibilities to others in the country. Or do you want a president who is judged and held accountable for everything? After the presidential election, there will be a calming down. Think about the hierarchy of responsibility. Think about the organization of Egypt. What about local governance? Egypt has been centralized. The budget has been centralized. Governorates need their own budgets and their own plan."

"You have to be passionate as Egyptians. Democracy needs patience. You have to have patience and accept the other side."