Cancelled Elections and Violent Clashes

Violent clashes going on between central security forces and dozens of protesters at Kasr al-Nil bridge, Cairo, 11 March 2013. Photo Credit Hazem Abdel Hamid of the Egypt Independent.

Three topics are heatedly being discussed right now in Egypt: the cancelled parliamentary elections, steps towards economic reform, and police protests throughout the country. 

A top court cancelled parliamentary elections scheduled for April referencing confusion regarding election laws in the new constitution and political instability across the country. This decision launches Egypt’s political transition back into legal limbo, leaving the upper house (the Shura) as the temporary legislature. The street violence since late January and the anticipation of more violence add to the doubts about feasibility of holding a vote in certain parts of the country. Further, the National Salvation Front has declared it would boycott any lection, demanding the restoration of stability and the overhaul of Egypt’s new Constitution (NYT-Kirkpatrick). Cairo University professor, Mustafa Kamel al-Sayyed explained that the decision to cancel the April legislative polls looks bad for Morsy. “It is a bad decision for the president and bolsters the feeling that his decisions are never thought out and that his advisers are not competent.” Other analysts offered similar sentiments that this is just another sign that Morsy’s presidency is failing (Daily-Star).

After months of teetering towards economic collapse, with soaring unemployment, a gaping budget deficit, and steep declines in the currency’s value (The Egyptian Pound) , Egypt is starting to get serious about economic reform. US Secretary of State John Kerry visited Egypt at the beginning of March and urged that the country needs to institute economic reforms and satisfy the conditions the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has set. IMF has agreed to give Egypt a loan for $4.8 billion if arrangements are met. Further, the U.S. and the European Union have stated they are prepared to provide substantial assistance if there is an agreement made between Egypt and IMF (NYT-Gordon). With agreements yet to be made, IMF offered Egypt a $750 million rescue credit, which it rejected. Egyptian Finance Minister El-Morsi Hegazy claimed that since the country has started implementing a full economic reform program, it was entitled to the larger loan by the IMF, not an emergency loan. He assures the country that talks will continue throughout this month (Aljazeera).

The police force was widely regarded to be the underpinning of former President Hosni Mubarak. The post-Revolution police force has continuously been accused of not reforming and cases have been cited throughout the country which accuse the police of being even worse since the 2011 revolution. Human rights groups accuse the police of acting like armed gangs, laying down collective punishment. Ahmed Helmy, Egypt’s deputy Minster of Interior, denies all claims of police abuse and states there is no evidence of such occurrences, just political conflicts (NPR).  Since January 6^th, over 70 people have been killed during protests, which investigations are currently underway. Similarly, 16 policeman have been killed and almost a thousand injured in encounters with anti-regime protestor. Several police departments and security camps throughout the country staged strikes, demanding better arms to defend themselves as well as an end to the politicization of the force (Egypt Independent).

~WMB with assistance from Jillian Underwood 

A Leader Worth Mourning: Samer Soliman (1968-2012)

As we prepare for Christmas, we celebrate a season of illumination, yet we also mourn many tragedies across the globe. This is appropriate, as Christmas is a time of endings as well as beginnings, and more subtly perhaps, it is also a continuation. The winter solstice is the shortest day of the year. It therefore represents an end as well as a beginning. The birth of Christ, over two thousand years ago represented the beginning of a new world religion, a continuation of revered Abrahamic beliefs, as well as the incorporation of ancient pagan, animist, and pharaonic traditions.

On this day, as we prepare for the 2013th celebration of the prophet whom we call Christ, I want to celebrate the life of one of the most influential politicians, activists, and scholars I have ever met: Dr. Samer Soliman. As I mourn his leaving this planet earth, I also am mourning the passage of a an ill-thought out, undemocratic constitution by the people of Egypt. I pray earnestly for the continuation of the Egyptian democratic opposition on this holy night. I ask all the people of Egypt, and of the world, to keep working to ensure that the promise of the Egyptian Revolution is fulfilled.

Samer would have wanted me to feel all of these feelings. Samer died after a battle with terminal cancer at the age of 44.  He was a Coptic Christian, who was nonetheless a fundamentally secular person. He was a journalist, and a brilliant scholar who wrote The Autumn of Dictatorship: Fiscal Crisis and Political Change in Egypt under Mubarak. He was a Professor of Political Economy at the American University in Cairo, and a founding member of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party. Ahram Online bids writer, activist Samer Soliman farewell.

Yet these dry facts, as impressive as they are, do not do justice to Samer's life. I do not have space to eulogize his life as a devoted spouse and family man to his beautiful wife Mary Shenoda. Nor is there room to discuss his stature as a professor at the American University in Cairo. Rather, I will focus on his work as an activist and a politician, since Egypt is facing a political crisis larger than perhaps any since the January 25th revolution itself. Farewell Samer Soliman (Egypt Independent)

Samer had a vision for the new Egypt.  Samer came from a political family, reared in Egypt's long tradition of secularism, which made Cairo the jewel of North Africa in the 1950s and early 1960s. He drew on these resources when he helped found the Social Democratic Party of Egypt shortly after the January 25th Revolution. I arrived in Cairo on January 25th, 2011, the first day of the revolution. While I tried to understand what was going on in my new home, Samer was on the barricades with students, farmers and workers, fighting valiantly to usher Egypt into a new era of democracy and human rights. He had long been involved in Egypt's historically strong labor movement. He reached out to the European social democratic parties, forged in Europe's struggle for democracy and labor rights in the 1920s, and revived after World War II in the 1950s.

Although Western news sources tend to focus on the Muslim Brotherhood, the Social Democratic Party, one of the few genuinely new post-revolutionary parties to emerge in Egypt, has made a huge mark in this time frame. In coalition with the Free Egyptians and Tagamoo, the SDP formed the Egyptian Bloc ("Kotla). In the new (now dissolved) parliament, the Bloc made an impressive showing for such a new party, winning 7 percent of the available seats. The Kotla became one of the top five parties, and the major party representing women, secularists, democrats, Nubians, bedouins, Copts, human rights advocates, and so many other underrepresented yet crucial segments of Egyptian society.

Inspired by Samer and the SDP, I decided that I needed to document the emergence of Egypt's emerging opposition. I spent countless hours speaking to Samer and other SDP members learning about this new political forces.  Samer spoke to my leadership class on the budget challenges facing the new Egyptian government. He kept the fire burning bright that Egypt could be a democratic country that had room for all constituents, and all citizens. He championed human rights, civil rights, democracy, and social justice.

What would Samer think of the recent constitutional referendum? He would be dissappointed, I am sure, perhaps even frustrated and angry, but he would tell us not to give up. Samer received his doctorate in political science from the prestigious Science Po in Paris, France. As an intellectual and a scholar, he would remind us that the French Revolution spanned decades. He would tell us that like our French compatriots centuries before, we must keep moving forward, clear in our objectives, inspired by the ideals of the Enlightenment.

I like to think that he would be cheered that the April 6 Movement is planning a march on the presidential palace to oppose this constitution that does not truly represent the Egyptian people. He would applaud the fact that after nearly a year of disunity, the Egyptian opposition has finally been galvanized. Indeed, the National Salvation Front, composed of the Constitution Party, Wafd, the Social Democratic Party, the popular current party, and the National Association for Change have stated that they will run for parliament on one list.

I believe that tonight, Samer looks down on us from Heaven. I pray that we remember the message of his life, and all take steps to ensure that his vision becomes a reality. I pray that the Egyptian opposition seizes the moment to unite, and move the revolution, and Egypt's democracy forward.

Merry Christmas Samer. Egypt has lost a great leader, a lion of a man. Like the Lion of Judah, we hear your call. May we reach the mountaintop that you pointed us toward. May the peace of Christ be with you, always.

Your comrade in arms, Warigia

Egyptian Constitutional Referendum: I am not impressed

The first part of the constitutional referendum took place this weekend in Egypt. Voting will complete on the 22d.

I am not a fan of these multi-stage voting operations. They give some groups, most notably the MB, the opportunity to influence the outcome while voting continues. Thousands of violations have been noted in the first round of voting, and many are calling for a repeat of this Saturday's referendum.

It looks like there will be a big protest against the referendum tomorrow, Tuesday. The Egyptian state has deployed an additional 120, 000 troops to provide security.  Turnout has been low, at just 31%.

Low turnout will contribute to the already prevalent perception that this is not a consensus document that really represents the views of a broad swath of Egyptian society. Rather, this document is generally more reflective of a religiously biased, Islamic approach. There are certainly strong elements of this constituency in Egyptian society. But Egyptian society also has a strong secular, and leftist tradition, as well as a significant Christian population.

This development is dissappointing. From the standpoint of building a successful democracy, having a constitution that is not widely accepted by the Egyptian people is not an auspicious start. It suggests that Egypt has moved from an autocracy to a theocracy, and not toward a democracy.

Yet residents of Gharbiya voted a resounding no. at least 52.1% of the governorate rejected the draft document. The town of Mahalla actually declared its independence from Egypt, as a rejection of Morsy's policies.

If Complaints Not Addressed, Referendum Voting Should be Repeated (Egypt Independent)

Protests Planned Against Egypt Charter Vote (Al Jazeera)

First Round of Voting Spurs Dispute in Egypt (NYT)

Gharbiya Votes No (Egypt Independent)

Vote No on the Egyptian Constitution

Violent clashes at the Presidential Palace, December 5, 2012. Photo Credit Al Masry Al Youm

A constitutional referendum is scheduled for December 15, 2012 (this Saturday) and December 22, 2012. The National Salvation Front is asking supporters to vote NO.

Egyptian president Mohamed Morsy issued a law yesterday dividing the constitutional referendum into two stages. Ten governorates will vote in the first stage on 15 December: Cairo, Alexandria, Aswan, Assiut, Daqahlia, Gharbiya, Sharqiya, Sohag, South Sinai and North Sinai. The remaining governorates will vote on December 22d, 2012. These governorates include Giza, Qena, Beheira, Beni Suef, Damietta, Ismailia, Kafr al-Sheikh, Matrouh, Monufiya, New Valley, Port Said, Qalyubiya, Red Sea, Suez and Luxor.

The leader of the National Salvation Front is leftist politician Hamdeen Sabbahi. They want the referendum to take place over a single day. They have also asked for full judicial supervision, and have called for domestic, international, and NGO teams to supervise the vote. National Salvation Front Urges No Vote on the Egyptian Constitution (Egypt Independent)

Most judges have refused to supervise the vote in protest of Morsy's recent power grab. Egyptian expatriates began voting today, Wednesday, December 12, 2012. Morsy Issues Law Staggering Referendum Vote (Egypt Independent)

Meanwhile, the Egyptian Street remains outraged at Morsy's efforts to give himself more power. According to Nathan Brown, a professor at George Washington University, Morsy has paced all of his actions, and those of the constitutional assembly outside of judicial review. He has made it impossible to disband the constitutional assembly, and has effectively assumed legislative powers. Brown argues that the constituent assembly (or constitutional assembly) is dominated by Islamists. Morsy has reduced the pressure for the CA to reach a consensus document, and he is instead allowing the predominantly Islamist CA to force their version on the Egyptian opposition. As Egypt's Constitution Waits in Limbo, Morsy Grabs More Power (Carnegie Endowment)

Human Rights Watch states that the draft constitution provides for basic protections against arbitrary dentention and torture and for some economic rights, but fails to end military trials of civilians or protect freedom of expression and religion. One positive development is that the final draft does not require strict adherence to sharia with regard to women's rights (former article 68 has been removed). However, sex or gender is not a grounds for prohibiting discrimination in the new draft, and potentially interferes with women's choices about work and family. Egypt: New Constitution Mixed on Support of Rights (Human Rights Watch)

Meanwhile, thousands of demonstrators gathered in Alexandria yesterday to reject the referendum on the new constitution in front of the Haqaniyq Court. Further, thousands of opposition members marched from Hijaz Square in Heliopolist to the presidential palace last night to reject the referendum. More marches are scheduled beginning today. Opposition Protesters March Again (Egypt Independent)

A very bad version of the Egyptian Constitution and a very big protest

Sit In at Tahrir. Credit: Al Masry Al Youm

There is so much going on in Egypt it is next to impossible to keep track of it all. But wait, I have had this feeling before!!!

To make a long story short, the draft Egyptian constitution is almost as unpopular as Morsi's decree. Here is a collection of materials about the massive Friday protests and the constitution.

The Associated Press reports, Islamists approved the Constitutional draft "without the participation of liberal and Christian members, seeking to pre-empt a court ruling that could dissolve their panel with a rushed, marathon vote that further inflames the clash between the opposition and President Mohammed Morsi." On Morning Edition, "Critics say it's not just that the president is rushing through an imperfect document, but one that could be dangerous. For instance, the draft constitution has preserved broad powers for the president although it does stipulate four-year term limits. There is still little civilian oversight of the military. And perhaps the most controversial part is the slightly expanded role and influence of Islam, which gives clerics a consulting role on legislation. "For all the hope of change, observers say the document is quite similar to the 1971 constitution it's expected to replace." In Egypt, Draft of Constitution OK'd (NPR)

Al Ahram reports that The finalization of Egypt’s new constitution did not help to stop protests. Egypt's Political Opposition holds firm (Al Ahram) Although given a 2 month extension, the Constituent Assembly finished the draft in a marathon session that lasted more than 15 hours. “According to analysts, the move was intended to placate activists and anti-Muslim Brotherhood demonstrators angry at what they see as Morsi’s attempt to impose autocratic rule.” Once a draft constitution is approved via popular referendum, Morsi's decree will be cancelled and his legislative powers transferred to a newly-elected parliament. However, protests showed no sign of abating. Tahrir Square demonstrators, who are pushing for a 'no' vote in the upcoming referendum, believe the draft constitution neither fulfils the aspirations of Egyptians nor achieves revolutionary objectives.

"Egypt will not be forced to choose between a dictatorial declaration and a rushed constitution written by a fraction of Egyptian society… Egypt will not bow down to the will of a few," former presidential candidate Hamdeen Sabbahi. 

Protests had begun after Morsi's power decree on November 22nd, but the release of the poorly drafted constitution made things worse, not better. Egypt Constitution Protests (LA Times) Morsi continues to defend both his recent decree and the draft constitution, claiming that it is necessary to advance Egypt's political transition.  Human Rights Watch suggests that secular moderates in Egypt may approve the constitution because of the fear of a future full of uncertainty. 

Here are some of the more controversial articles of the constitution: Egypt Constitution Sparks Outrage (WSJ)

o   Article 2: Says that Islam is the religion of the state and that principles of Islamic Shariah are the primary source of legislation.

o   Article 11: The state has power to issue unspecified laws that regulate 'public morality, discipline and order.'

o   Article 150: President can call binding referendum on 'important matters related to the state's paramount interests.

o   Article 198: Military tribunals can try civilians for crimes 'that harm the armed forces.'

The Egypt Independent notes that

"Participants chanted against the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis. “Egypt for all Egyptians, not Brothers and Salafis,” they chanted, along with “Down with the supreme guide’s rule,” referring to the Brotherhood’s leader. Demonstrators call for canceling the new constitutional declaration, canceling the referendum on the current draft constitution, restructuring the Constituent Assembly to write a constitution that reflects the views of all Egyptians, and providing retribution for the martyrs of the revolution who have died since 25 January 2011. “Among the most prominent participants are the Free Egyptians, Strong Egypt, Egyptian Social Democratic, and Constitution parties, as well as the April 6 Youth Movement Democratic and Ahmed Maher fronts, the Coalition of Egypt’s Copts, the Popular Democratic Movement, the Maspero Youth Union, the Voice of Freedom Movement, the Free Front for Peaceful Change, the Coalition of the Lotus Revolution and the Revolutionary Youth Union.”"Thousands Converge on Tahrir (EI) 
 

Well, that is enough for today. 

~WMB

The Morsi Maneuver Part 2: Tahrir revolts against massive power grab

Marchers arrive in Tahrir to protest the Constitution

Dear readers, 

I have been watching the unfolding events in the past days with some trepidation, but not that much surprise. 

Morsi  has issued a sweeping decree on November 22, 2012 expanding his powers.  Opponents are furious, arguing that his declaration has made all his decisions immune to judicial review and banned the courts from dissolving the upper house of parliament and an assembly writing the new constitution, both of which are dominated by Islamists. The decree also gave Morsi sweeping authority to stop any ‘‘threats’’ to the revolution, public order or state institutions. The powers would last until the constitution is approved and parliamentary elections are held, not likely before spring 2013.  Egyptians Protest Morsi (Boston Globe)

His supporters argue that he is protecting the Revolution  Morsi has split Egypt down the middle (BBC)   According to the BBC, his supporters state that he merely took unchecked power away from the judiciary - which is still full of personalities from the Mubarak era - until the constitution is done and there are systems in place to allow the country to move forward.

Of course, when Morsi was elected, many people feared that exactly such a power grab would happen. Morsi is a complicated character. On the one hand, he was educated in America, and even taught at Cal State Northridge and is quite learned. On the other hand, he was a member of the Guidance Office of the Muslim Brotherhood before that organization became legal after the Revolution.  Times Interview with Mohamed Morsi. Unfortunately, his rhetoric, that he wants a civil, constitutional state, is not in line with his current actions.

The crazy thing is that it is not even Friday, and all hell has broken out in Tahrir. The most astute analysis I have heard comes from my old boss at AUC Dr. J--- B----. She says that 

"At this point, almost any scenario could be built. Morsi may realize he has to prove himself and show the courage to confront his own side and rebalance the constituent assembly, in which case he could pull if off if he demands unanimity or a super-majority on every provision, to force them to reach consensus or take it out. 

Conversely, the MB could militarize and we could have green shirts jack-stepping around Tahrir. 

Or we could have massive unrest and economic collapse.

Or the military could come back if things get dicey. 

He has really painted himself into a corner. We'll have to wait and see if he knows something we don't -- about the Gaza situation or the IMF, or whatever -- but he risks having all hell break loose if there are any more unpleasant surprises.  Word is MB HQs in 7 governorates all over the country were burnt.  One of the students also told me that the police and the army were shooting at each other at the head of Road 90 last week."

My analysis is that if Morsi knows something we do not, he needs to convey it to the left, to regain their trust. He has shown strength and statesmanlike behavior toward the conflict in Gaza,  Talks begin in Cairo after Gaza Cease Fire (NYT) and in relations with Iran, but his inability to manage the domestic front in his own country could neutralize Egypt's effectiveness as a foreign affairs powerhouse.   

Most worrisome is Morsi's attempt to maintain the work of the Constituent Assembly. As I have noted in previous posts, from day one, the Constituent Assembly has been heavily Islamist. With only 7 women on the Assembly to begin with, the Assembly clearly did not represent the interests of a majority of Egyptians. I noted my discomfort with the opposition parties and the Christian parties pulling out. Strategically, they should have stayed in and fought for a better CA. Nonetheless, if Morsi has his way, the current CA, which is even more Islamist now than when it was initially convened, will be in charge of a new constitution that certainly does not reflect the secular, mult-religious, modern nation of the Egypt we know and love. 

This blog is called Democratizing the New Egypt.  Morsi's behavior is not democratic, and is made even worse by the fact that there is no parliament currently sitting. It is true that the judiciary needs reform, and feloul in the judiciary need to be routed, but concentrating all of the nation's power in the executive is not the correct tactic. 

There is a silver lining to all of this: my beloved secular opposition is getting its second wind. As reported by the Egypt Independent, 

For almost two years, civil and secular groups were constantly blamed for being disunited and unorganized, paving the way for Islamists to rise to power after Hosni Mubarak’s ouster.

That changed this week as opposition leaders, former presidential candidates, secular liberal and leftist parties, and even some figures previously labeled as feloul — or remnants of the former regime — united against President Mohamed Morsy’s constitutional declaration, through which he claimed sweeping powers for himself, and formed the National Salvation Front.  Civil Groups Pounce Into Public Space (EI)

As one protester quoted by the BBC (article above) pointed out, “It's unfortunate that my demands are still same - bread, freedom and social justice. If Morsi doesn't get it, well, we have seen this movie before and all know where this is going to end.”

Credits: Huge thanks to my awesome graduate assistant Jillian Underwood for assisting with research and keeping me organized!

Troubles with the Egyptian Constituent Assembly

Friday of Islamic Sharia in Tahrir Square. Photo Credit Al Masry Al Youm.

The Constituent Assembly is the somewhat difficult name for the group of Egyptians tasked with writing the Constitution for this emergent democracy.

On Sunday, several leftist and liberal members withdrew from the Constituent Assembly. Further, Coptic Orthodox Pope Bishop Pachomius announced the withdrawal of three Christian members from the CA on Saturday. I am of two minds about this. First, I can see that maybe some of them feel they are participating in a fundamentally flawed process. Principles aside, they risk handing the task over to conservative Islamists, which will result in a document not widely accepted by the entire Egyptian population, particularly the educated population.

Salafis in the CA wanted to replace the idea of "Sharia principles" with the idea of "Sharia provisions," which would leave less open to interpretation in the Constitution, and might usher in a Sunni theocracy of sorts.

Christians and liberals are protesting what they see as an "Islamic" Constitution.  They are also concerned about the far reaching powers granted to the Executive by the Constitutional draft. Further, there is concern that the way the draft is currently written, it would preclude a civil state. The Church has said that the withdrawal of the Christian members of the CA is final.

~WMB

Constitutional Conundrum and Egypt's stance on Gaza attacks

The process of drafting the Egyptian constitution is turning out to be difficult, to say the least. Court cases, threats, and a debate over human rights are common occurrences. Further, a polarizing debate about the role of religion in the new Egyptian state continues to make headlines. One important debate is Islamist representation in the Assembly. Further, observers feel that the conservative language of certain articles may violate the human rights of religious minorities, women and even children. Liberal and secular groups are protesting the recent draft.

Human Rights Watch argues that the draft of the constitution provides basic political and economic rights, yet it falls short on women's and children's rights, freedom of religion, as well as torture. HRW believes that several provisions of the September 27th draft are at odds with international human rights standards. HRW tells Egypt to fix draft constitution (October 8, 2012)

Nathan Brown, a law professor at George Washington University, notes that the Egyptian constitution is not a secular document, rather it puts Islam at the front and center. Most of the 100 members of the Constitutional Assembly are Islamists, however, but Brown argues that they are trying to defer some major issues to get national buy in. Sharia law governing marriage, divorce and inheritance--which gives men and women very different rights-- will continue, although it has some language supporting the status of women at the beginning. In the long run, he notes, those provisions may come into conflict.  Brown states that "[l]iberals, secularists, Islamists, leftists, people from all across the political spectrum are having to hammer out an agreement, and they're not used to having to do that," yet he is hopeful that they will make it work. Looking to Rebuild, Egypt Leans on New Constitution (October 21, 2012)

Meanwhile, President Morsy has threatened to form a new Constituent Assembly if this one does not complete its work within six months. He also accused members of the former Mubarak government of sowing dissent in the country. Morsy puts pressure on Constituent Assembly (October 28, 2012)

The New York Times suggests that the new Constitution will insert religion more deeply into Egypt's judicial and legislative processes. Yet, the document firmly seats power in the hands of Egypt's elected officials and civil courts, so their is little likelihood that the country will become a theocracy as is the case with Iran. Liberal delegates believe that the guidelines are vague enough to give the nation flexibility with regard to interpretation in crafting the future Egyptian state. Egypt is the first Arab state to attempt to meld Sharia with principles of democracy. Tunisia is using a more liberal constitutional approach.A Vague Role for Religion in Egyptian Constitution (November 9, 2012)

Meanwhile, the Washington Post reports that Morsy remains firm in his support for Hamas, as he attempts to negotiate the delicate space between supporting the Palestinians, and honoring his treaty obligations with Israel. Thousands of Egyptians rallied in squares and mosques to condemn Israel's air strikes on the Gaza Strip, and to urge the Egyptian state to support the Palestinians. The post reports that Morsy has taken the lead among Arab leaders in confronting Israel. Egyptians Rally in Support of Palestinians in the Gaza Conflict (November 16, 2012)

A worrying weekend as the Egyptian presidential election approaches

I am here in Cairo for June. Here in Cairo, things are a bit tense. My students are concerned about me. They worry that I do not have enough family to make staying in Cairo during the upcoming election safe. No matter, I have various colleagues, and we live in Rehab, which is likely the safest place in the greater metropolitan area.

Multiple political matters remain up in the air. First, who will participate in the Constituent Assembly, which is supposed to write Egypt's new constitution, is a matter of great contention. The constituent assembly is supposed to be formed of 100 people representing various components of Egyptian society. Yet, its composition has drawn enormous criticism from secular and liberal forces, including ElBaradei. Second, the Supreme Constitutional Court could disband parliament over the legality of the voting in the recent parliamentary elections. Third, this Saturday and Sunday a presidential runoff is scheduled between Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak's last prime minister, and the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsy. Shafiq may yet be disqualified under the Political Isolation Law. The Supreme Constitutional Court may declare the law illegal. Or, the court may choose not to hear the case.  However, the Court is scheduled to hear the case on June 14, 2012, only two days before the scheduled runoff.

If Shafiq is elected, and then disqualified, it could throw political matters--and the country-- into turmoil.

Shafiq is clearly the SCAF's preferred candidate, and his disqualification would loosen their grip on power. Also, the proximity of a potential court decision to the runoff is nerve-wracking. On the way home on the bus, everyone was making nervous jokes about our safety. One of my students says he is going to Ain Sokhna for the election. We asked him why he thinks Ain Sokhna is safer? He said, it is not safer, but at least it will be relaxing and fun. Good point.

Egyptian Presidential Election, Protests, and the Politics of Drafting the New Constitution

An Egyptian girl street vendor displays dairy products for sale under electoral posters in Cairo, Egypt, Monday, April 23, 2012

(AP)

 

Well folks, it is a busy news day in Egypt!

There is a big protest in Tahrir. It was called by the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis. I like the concept, which is demanding a handover of power to civilians. I am less sanguine about the people who called it. The Free Front for Peaceful Change has refused to participate, saying the Islamists are hijacking the protests after abandoning the streets for months.

A Constituent Assembly to write Egypt's new constitution is being put together. A mediation committee has been established to end the impasse over the Assembly's make up, according to the Egypt Independent. So far, the parties in the mediation have agreed to grant 15 seats to the FJP ( Muslim Brotherhood) 7 seats to the Nour party (Salafis), and 4 to the Wafd party (center secular) out of the 40 seats to be occupied by political parties. If those numbers are correct, 26 seats have been chosen, leaving 14 to be filled by other political parties. It is not clear what algorithm has been used to date to fill the seats. A court ruling in March determined that the Constituent Assembly had to be reformed due to its lack of diversity. As someone outside this mediation, my concern is that it is not clear whether women, bedouins, Christians, leftists, secular persons, or new parties that are not Islamists are on this Assembly. There is a lot at stake here. If the new Egyptian Constitution is not well written, then it will be very difficult for Egypt to emerge into a full-fledged democracy. Check out an article that gives some insight into this process.

With regard to the Presidential election, the National Association for Change is attempting to agree on a single revolutionary candidate. Leftist lawyer, Khaled Ali is a human rights advocate who has been on the approved list of candidates. He has said he will waive his candidacy if a consensus candidate is chosen. The National Association for Change has stated that they support the following principals: the civilian democratic nature of the state, the guarantee of full citizenship rights without discrimination on the basis of religion, race or gender. The Association also said these ideas need to be included in the constitution. If the candidates fail to agree among themselves, a "committee of wise men" will be put together to make a binding choice, if the candidates fail to agree. On the gender equality piece, I hope a woman is on the committee.

With regard to the Mubarak approved choice of presidential candidates, Ahmed Shafiq, Hosni Mubarka's last prime minister , says he has the military and political experience to lead Egypt into a new democratic era. Huuhhh? I thought you were with the guy we fired last January 25th, Ahmed? He was disqualified by the Political Isolation Law, which banned former Mubarak officials, then 48 hours later, the Presidential Election Commission reinstated him. Shafiq has close military ties, and is certainly someone the SCAF (the ruling military junta) knows well, and would be comfortable with.

Egypt's Minorities

Bedouins in Alexandria. Photo Credit T.H. McAllister.

Dear readers

Not very much attention is given to the "other" in examinations of Egypt. Of course, we have found out in the past year that women, although they are 50% of the population, are treated like the other in Egypt.

But there are other groups that deserve attention. I am particularly concerned that at least some of these groups receive proper representation in the upcoming efforts to design Egypt's new constitution.

Under President Gamal Abdel Nasser, most European groups left, fled or were driven out. Egypt used to have a sizeable Greek, and Jewish population, particularly in Alexandria,but they are mostly gone. One can see beautiful, yet empty, shuttered and locked synagogues in Old Cairo and in Old Alexandria. There is some Jewish population in Egypt, but it is incredibly small, and hard to measure, due to the intense anti-zionist sentiment here. The American-Israeli cooperative Enterprise estimates their numbers at less than 100 in 2004.

Another group we do not hear much about are the Baha'i. The Bahai are a religious group who recognize Bahaullah as their prophet. They have a very nice message about the unity of humankind. However, they are fiercely oppressed in Egypt. They are not allowed to have ID cards showing their religion. (Although I think the fact that ID cards show your religion is a bad one in principle.) The only religions you are allowed to list on your IDs include Jewish, Islam and Christianity. As a result, many Bahai have difficulty getting birth certificates, passports, and other crucial documents. They are routinely discriminated against and stigmatized. They probably number around 5000, or less.

I have devoted many pages to the persecution of Copts and other Christians. Approximately 9 percent of the Egyptian population are Coptic Christians. Coptic Christians are one the oldest groups in Egypt. The Pharaonic temples have evidence of Church activity in them. At one point, far before the advent of Islam, all of Egypt was officially Christian. The holy family is said to have sojourned through Egypt, and several monasteries throughout Cairo, Upper Egypt, and the Sinai attest to this.

There is significant discrimination against Copts. People are discriminated against in employment, and being a Christian may be a bar to promotion in majority settings.  Churches can only be built with permits, which must be applied for from the government. Recent clashes in Imbaba and Maspero have been touched off in part around conflict regarding Church building. Here are some materials regarding Copts and Maspero.  Further, marriage between Christian men and Muslim women is forbidden, and can touch off violence in rural areas. In the ongoing election, people have campaigned against the Kotla by saying that it is the "Christian party." One of the most poignant moments I have experienced in Egypt was when I tried to comfort one of my colleagues after the Maspero Massacre, and she burst into tears, as did then I, as we embraced.

The Egyptian majority also do not like Shia Muslims very much. Regardless of the size of these small religious communities, their protection requires a secular state that ensures religious protection for minorities.

I have fallen in love with the Nubian people during my time in Egypt. They have their own language, and a distinct architecture and culture. There land was largely submerged when Lake Nasser was created as part of the Aswan Dam. They were relocated to villages. The novel Dongola, and another book, The Nubian Women of West Aswan, give some insight into their plight.  Please look at my page on Books@Egypt  for more details. One of the most beautiful and scenic things I have seen during my time in Egypt was a cute Nubian village along the Nile in Aswan. Although the Nubian dynasty of the Pharaos was one of the most successful Egypt has ever seen, the plight of the Nubian people currently reminds me of the plight of the Native Americans in the United States.

I also am concerned that the Siwans, the Bedouins, and other indigenous tribal people have a say in the upcoming Egyptian constitutional process.

~WMB

Governance, Accountability and Stakeholders in Egypt

This semester I am teaching a class at the American University in Cairo called "Governance, Accountability, and Stakeholder Negotiation. It is a masters level class in public policy. It is a lot of fun, and we have been doing a lot of reading on how to improve governance in the Middle East and Africa. For example, we have read the Ibrahim Index as well as the World Bank MENA governance News and Notes.

This week, we were very lucky to have a special guest. Dr. Samer Soliman came and spoke to our class. He is the author of an important book just published by Stanford University Press. The book is titled The Autumn of Dictatorship: Fiscal Crisis and Political Change Under Mubarak.  In this book, Dr. Soliman evaluates the Egyptian budget to get lessons about allocation patterns, and the character of the authoritarian Egyptian state.

Here are some of his comments (paraphrased) on governance and accountability.

Accountability

The main issue of the Army is the budget. The second issue is that the Army has an economic empire. The military empire is off budget. If you examine the details of the Egyptian budget, you will not see it, but the evidence is all around us. One concern for the transition is that the Egyptian military is trying to prevent the new president from having power over the budget. 

It will likely take a while to move the military to its proper place in society. In Spain, the transition to democracy took 15 years. Currently in Egypt, we are operating under an interim constitution. At the moment, there is no article in the constitution that has a popular monitoring of the budget.  

We need an army, and we need a state. There has actually been a long term weakening of the Army since Sadat. The Nasser regime was really a military regime. This is less true today. In Iraq under Saddam, there was no distance at all between the regime and the state. This is also true of Syria today. In Egypt, there is some distance. The military is not divided along sectarian lines, like the Syrian military. It is important to get the military budget into the state budget. Right now, there is a lack of civilian control of the budget. 

Taxation plays an important role in accountability. Taxation in Egypt is currently corrupt and inefficient. Democracy facilitates the task of taxation because it enhances popular legitimacy. We also need progressive taxation. 


Stakeholders


With regard to stakeholders under the Mubarak Regime, there were no real political parties. There were just pressure groups. The opposition parties had no chance to rule. New political parties are emerging. In the future, we will have real political parties in Egypt. Syndicates will be much more important. There was no real syndicate life under the old regime. The syndicates can play an important role as an instrument of bargaining and problem solving. Many social groups in Egypt do not have real power. The Egyptian diaspora is important. Civil society will be more important in the new period. The SCAF is pushing the diaspora aside because they are dangerous. They are a huge asset in terms of their money, their knowledge, and their connections. 


Elections

It is not correct that the SCAF will be appointing all 100 members of the task force to write the constitution. Rather, they will set the criteria of how people for the task force are selected. The parliamentary elections will be in November. Then, there will hopefully be presidential elections, although it is vague. The constitution should be drafted within 6 months after the presidential elections. There is no guarantee that the constitutional drafting will be finished in the transition period. 


Egyptian Social Democratic Party

The party I belong to is the SDP. It is objectively, the best party in Egypt, and you should join it. {laughter}. We respect the market economy, but we also believe in a welfare state, and we support social justice. Our party is based on the assumption that economic development needs to create opportunities for the poor, but still be based on the market. We want to give people the instruments and means to defend their rights. It is creative conciliation between the market, and social democracy. 

Letter to Donald Horowitz (long version)

Dear editors, 

I am writing to comment on an excellent article by Donald Horowitz about Egypt published in the Summer 2011 issue of the Wilson Quarterly.

I write not to quibble with Horowitz' largely thoughtful analysis, but to provide some new information and some nuance. In that article, Horowitz makes the following arguments. He argues that due to the short time table for the current elections, the well organized Muslim Brotherhood  (MB) and some reconstituted version of the old regime's National Democratic Party (NDP) will win a large share of the 508 seats in Egypt's lower house of parliament (the People's Assembly). He also notes how important it is to determine the rules that govern how elections are structured. The proportional list system, argues Horowitz, will be beneficial to liberal, secular parties.Finally, he points out that lessons from other nations teach us that the greater the number of individuals involved in drafting a constitution, the higher the resulting level of democracy.He makes an important note that the technical rules around drafting the constitution matter, and can lead to a higher level of democracy.

I would like to make the following three points in response to his article.

First, I agree that the MB will likely benefit from earlier elections. It appears, however, that parliamentary elections will not be held in September. Nor will candidacy even begin in late September, as previously thought. Previously, we had thought elections would be held in November. Now, however,  fluidity remains in the scheduled election dates. Mohammed El Baradei and other presidential candidates have asked for Presidential elections to be held in February because they need time to regroup.

Many analysts say that the MB, Islamists, and the remnants of the old regime wish to have elections as soon as possible, because their forces are more organized. The sooner elections are held, they argue, the better the MB and NDP will do. By contrast, later elections will assist the secular groups, and leftists.

The risk in delaying elections is that due to delay, there will  be no elections. Perhaps I am wrong, but personally, I would prefer a government which includes representation from an elected Muslim Brotherhood pressured by moderate forces to a government run by decree by an unelected SCAF.  By delaying elections, the SCAF is left in place, which increases the period of time during which Egypt is ruled by a military junta. The Muslim Brotherhood is not the most radical of Islamist forces on the ground in Egypt. Further, the Muslim Brotherhood has shown both the ability and the willingness to converse with secular forces. Finally, it is likely that the Muslim Brotherhood will win far fewer seats than outside observers fear.


Second, I would like to note that the Egyptian political scene is vibrant and varied. With the advent of the Revolution, new leftist parties have emerged. These include the Public Social League, or the Coalition of Socialist parties (Al Tahalof al Shabee Al Eshterakee).  They are firmly committed to the civil state, the rights of women, improvements in health care and education, and supporting the farmers, the workers, and the youth. This group has solid intellectual credentials, significant experience, and a sophisticated long-term strategy. They may not win an enormous amount of votes in the first election, but they are certain to be influential on the Egyptian political scene in the coming years. Another moderate leftist party in the vein of the British Labor party, or the German Social Democrats, is the Egyptian Social Democrat party. This party includes many Anglo Christians and Copts, but is styled in the grand old tradition of European moderate left.

In addition to the more leftist parties, a new generation of liberal, free market parties are emerging in Egypt. These include the Free Egyptians (Hezb Al Masreen Al Ahrrar) party. This party was established by telecommunications mogul Naguib Sawiris, and supports free enterprise principles. It supports improved equality for women and Copts, a civilian government, and major efforts to reduce poverty. Another important liberal party is the Democratic Front Party (Hezb Al Gabha Al Democrateya). This party was extant under the Mubarak government, but refused to participate in parliamentary elections. It fought for measures to secure fair elections under Mubarak. The party participated in the Egyptian Revolution, and is popular with middle-aged Egyptian voters. Amr Hamzawy — a perennial favorite among the youth due to his good looks, charisma, and impressive intellectual credentials — is currently affiliated with the Egyptian Freedom Party (Masr Al Horeya). He has returned from his post with the Carnegie Endowment in Beirut to help build political awareness in Egypt and is currently teaching at the American University in Cairo. The Egyptian Freedom party supports democracy, delegation of authority, the sovereignty of law, equality, and a reduction in social classes. The party also supports decentralization and more autonomy for governorates.

My final observation is that who selects the people on the Constitution drafting task force is extremely important. Originally, the representatives from the task force were to come from parliament. Currently, the SCAF is stating that it will select all 100 members of that task force. This is extremely problematic. As Horowitz points out, it is important for a multitude of groups to be involved in drafting the constitution. If the SCAF selects the groups in the constitutional task force, it will drastically limit diversity of composition, as well as views. The referendum task force, for example, had no women. Obviously, Copts need representation on this task force, but so do people from Upper Egypt, Nubians, women, leftists, secularists, and other minorities. At this point, the SCAF seems committed mainly to perpetuating its own existence as the head of Egyptian government. Accordingly the most important details to get right at this point,  are ones of process and inclusion. A broad swath of the Egyptian people need to have some say in who writes the constitution. And the Egyptian people need a hand in helping to determine which procedures will be used to ensure free and fair elections.

Follow Up Interview with Dr. Samer Soliman of SDP

An interview with Dr. Samer Soliman, Professor of Political Science at AUC, which was conducted on Aug 14, 2011 and Aug 16, 2011.

Conducted by Heba Galal. Heba Galal is my masters' student and did very well in my leadership class this summer. She is a budding academic, and a very hard worker. She came up with almost all of these questions herself. I have made some very minor edits to correct the English where it was confusing, but have left almost all of the interview in Heba's voice. I think you will find it very informative. Blogger is torturing me lately, so forgive the formatting issues.

Date August 18, 2011

Me

1. Could you please give me a quick brief about yourself and why do you choose this party in particular to participate in?

Dr. Samer Soliman

I was born in 1968, I graduated from faculty of Political Science in 1986, and I got my master’s degree in 1993, then I travelled to Paris where I got my PhD. I wrote many articles in Shorouk news, Al-Tagamoa, Islam online, El Destor, and El Masry El Youm. I felt with more comfortable while I was writing in Shorouk news, but I did not feel comfortable while I was writing in El-Masry El Youm as they always object writing some specific articles. I’m founder of Egyptian Social Democratic Party and I’m also member of Journalists’ syndicate and also I was a member of popular campaign of change and many campaigns like this. I am a founder of this party which mainly based on the idea of a liberal and leftist and social democracy which means that we take the concept of democracy based on a wide definition. Social democracy can deliver people’s rights and achieve them.

Me

2. What is the main platform of the party and what make it different than other parties? Don't you think that the phrases that used to express the main objectives and principles of the party are very long and the party itself stated that in its formal page in Facebook? Did the party make any change so far?

Dr. Samer Soliman

As I told you previously it is based on a background of a liberal and leftist. The liberal ideas are based on social justice whereas the leftist ideas are based on the economy of the market since we encourage the private sectors, but we did not encourage privatization. Private sectors should work on development and moving toward progress.

The party is trying to reach power through elections and also the parliament. The party can [work with] other parties to reach the power or it can reach the power individually. The main role of the party to [attain] power or argue with the government to reach the power. What do you mean that the principles are so long? I do not know about this announcement, but I guess what is really important is that our actions in the situations, there is no need to memorize them, for instance, we have taken action toward the minimum rate of wages . The party established in March 18 and then it formally announced its principles and formed all of its members at the end of June or in the beginning of July when it reached 5000 member and also [received] the authorization.

Me

3. Although the members of this party started to be active in the media lately still their appearance in media is very weak, do you have any justification for that?

Dr. Samer Soliman

I agree with you that there is a weakness regarding their appearance in the media, but they participate in many talk shows though. Let me tell you that the Freedom and Justice party, for instance, or Muslim Brotherhood had been there for a long time and also Free Egyptians Party has strong funds behind their appearance in media since they can finance their advertisements on TV and also you can add to this the Adel party . All of them have strong financial recourses, but our party has a limited source of funds. I like the image when we are reflecting the source of poverty as it is not good to show that they have so much money. I feel with more honesty when we try to achieve our principles of our party with using so little source of funds. The main goal of the party to help [the] poor and stand beside workers. I guess you noticed our medical campaigns to help people in different districts.

Me

4. Do you have a preference for the order of parliamentary elections, constitution writing, and presidential elections? Is the SCAF foreclosing a parliamentary and PM system by saying we should hold presidential elections? Is the SCAF serious about elections? What is the way out for the SCAF and what do you think of their attempt to have their role written into the constitution in a forceful way?

Dr. Samer Soliman

Our party promoted the elections by party’s list not by individual candidacy, the SCAF tried to satisfy all the sides. We are concerned by what has been taken from decisions by SCAF, but we still are going to participate in elections.

Our first demand was that constitution first. We tried to make our voices reach to SCAF, but [there is nothing we can do]. Writing [the] constitution is a very important step, we should agree on the rules first, so it can be like a fair competition to reach power whether it is civilian or not. The constitution is not supposed to be written by the majority of parliamentary group, but it should be written by [a] founding committee which is going to include different sectors, such as all the parties, social sectors, Al Azhar, The Church, and labor unions.

Well, in our party we do not have someone in particular we recommend, but most of the members tend to elect El Baradei as we have many members in the party who are in the campaign to support El Baradei, but this is not officially announced.

No one knows when the elections will be and I do not think that SCAF is planning to stay in the power for a long period of time and they did not prefer to stay for along in the power as they have another issues, they need to work on. SCAF has another plan that they are probably planning to stay in power until the constitution is written . The SCAF needs some kinds stuff , for instance, Mamdouh Shahin, SCAF's legal adviser needs constitutional articles that are going to be on the behalf of the army and does not give any authorities to the new head of the state to do anything regarding the army. The army has economical empire or in other words the army always tries to maintain its budget confidential and they try to keep its budget independent.

The SCAF needs to participate in writing the constitution to interfere [participate?] in the policies of the country when it is required. The SCAF has some kinds of limits and did not accept some kinds of stuff, for example, he can choose between parliamentary system or presidential system. As parliamentary system has one advantage that it has no president, so he can address the issues that face the country from different aspects whereas presidential system permits SCAF to address the issues that face the country through its president, so it makes the things more obvious to them.

Me

5. July 29 was a Friday of unifying all demands and set all the differences aside. This was the name that all the parties and all the political forces agreed upon it. However, what happened was different as many Islamists and Muslim brotherhood supporters dominated Tahrir square and called for an Islamic state and Sharia law. Do you agree with Sawiris that Islamists hijacked the revolution in El Masry El Youm in Aug 14?

Dr. Samer Soliman

The Islamic groups were marginalized in the last decades as the liberal and leftist groups were highlighted in the media so this was a normal reaction from them. I was not surprised or even shocked. The Islamic groups represent a very great [issue]. The Islamic flows is the strongest power in Egypt but what we have seen in the Tahrir in July 29 cannot be ignored There were almost 600 thousands out of 85 million there in Tahrir which means nothing, but still we should admit that they still there. Their attitude toward democracy is not obvious and their situation toward constitutional principles document still ambiguous.

Me

6. All the people were calling for civilian country during the 25th of Jan, however, what we saw in Friday July 29 that the majority but not all are calling for religious country. This caused me confusion and made me asked you this question "what country you prefer a religious or secular or civilian?" Could you please mention the differences between them?

Dr. Samer Soliman

First let me tell you the main difference between all of them. First, religious country this reminds me by what Muslims Brotherhood called for in 2005 when they launched a program for the party in which religious scientists monitor all the legislations of the country so each law issued by the country should be passed by those scientists which is unelected group. The democratic county should base its legislations form its people which is considered an elected group.

[A] secular country is a country [which] separates the religion from the state, so the article 2 should be excluded. All the religious institutions in Egypt should be separated from the state’s policies. US, for instance, is using politics with religion as long as we separate between religion and country’s polices, so it is considered secular country whereas civilian country achieves the equality among all people and the religious people have no control over the country’s polices.

I think I prefer civilian country, however, I think I tend to choose [a] secular country which is a more [realistic] one and needs more development.

Me

7. The trial of ex-president Mubarak and his two sons and also ex-interior minister Habib Al Adly and six of his deputies was shown live on the Egyptian state television, what do you think of this? Do you think that SCAF is trying to regain its trust from people again or what? What is your response toward investigations with political activists such as Asmaa Mahfouz and Loai Naghti and many activists like this?

Dr. Samer Soliman

First of all the trial of the figureheads of the old regime was revolutionary demand and was one of the demands of the revolution. Absolutely SCAF tried to gain its trust from its people and they try to calm people down and let them take revenge from those people. They tried to silence people by doing this toward many activists, but now everyone can talk and express what he /she thinks freely. No one will be silent now and the media start to encourage people to do so. The SCAF played a dictatorship [dictatorial role] and this is not acceptable at all.

Me

8. After all the parties and political forces announced their suspension of sit-ins at Tahrir square, the military police forcibly removed all the protesters from Tahrir square on Aug 2, which coincided with the trial of ex president Mubarak, what is your comment about that? Are you with or against sit- ins and demonstrations at Tahrir Square? Do you think all the demands of the revolutions have been achieved?

Dr. Samer Soliman

Well, I think dispers[ing] people with force is not acceptable, but I[ supported ending the sit ins ]at Tahrir as the number of people started to be reduced and people started to convert from being strong to be weak. I do not think that all the demands of the revolutions have achieved but I know that revolution is still there and nothing will stop us to go again to Tahrir if we feel that there is something wrong.

Me

9. What do you think of the new reshuffle of the governors and what is your response toward excluding women and Copts?

Dr. Samer Soliman

I think they try to follow the same style of the old regime as most of the candidates are previous Generals in the army and part of the old regime. They try to follow the same steps without any significant criteria.

Me

10. What is your comment of the law of perfidy, law No. 344 of 1952 which is going to be applied to people who corrupted the political life in Egypt, do you think that we are in need for this law in these days?

Dr. Samer Soliman

No I don’t think so, it is not [an] appropriate law which violates [human rights] and there are many articles in this law can be used against anyone whereas this law has been rejected by Al-Tagamoa party and also human rights organizations. The articles of this law are conformed in a way that can harm anyone without a proper reason. Let me give you an example, for instance, there is something called hatred of religions and insult of military forces and many articles which do not make any sense.

Me

Thank you for your time Dr. Samer. I have enjoyed speaking with you