Egypt Election Q and A

Here are some good resources on the Egyptian election

Carnegie Endowment Electing a New Egypt.

Arabist Egyptian Election Page

Al Jazeera Infographic on Egyptian Elections 

New York Times Revolution and Aftermath

Here is a review of the basics:

There are 27 Governorates in Egypt. Egypt has a population of 80 million. 50 million persons are eligible to vote. Expatriates in possession of an Egyptian passport can vote at their local consulate.

The People's Assembly elections will be held on November 28th-29th (Kafr El Sheikh, Port Said, Damietta, Cairo, Helwan, Alexandria) December 14, 2011, (Beni Suef, Giza, Ismailiya, Beheira, Suez, Sohag Qena, Luxor, Aswan, Sharqiya, Menoufiya) and finally January 3, 2012 (Marsa Matrouh, Minya. New Valley, North Sinai, South Sinai). Full results for the lower house will likely be announced after January.

The Shura Council elections will be held on January 29th, February 14th, and March 4th in the same sequence.

The date of the Presidential election has not yet been decided.

The election is a mixture of a closed list system (2/3), and a first past the post single winner system (1/3). Here is my explanation of that system. The Book of Lists

I have just updated my list of which parties are running women in large numbers or high positions. Please take a look. Which Egyptian parties represent women?

Furthermore, each list must contain individuals certified as either "workers" or "farmers," a holdover from the Nasserist era.

Here is my discussion of blocs. Egyptian political blocs

Predictions: I predict (Just a hunch. Just a gamble)

• Muslim Brotherhood will win 30%  of the seats in the People's Assembly. 
• El Adl will also be a big winner, taking about 15% of seats.
• I expect all Copts and many Muslim liberals and leftists to vote for the Egyptian Bloc, or the Revolution Continues Bloc. Those groups should win about 15% each. 
• The remaining seats will be divided between Al Nour, Wasat, El Wafd, and a variety of other parties and individuals.

The book of lists: unraveling the mystery of Egypt's emerging electoral system

Dear readers

I am, by training, an expert in public policy.  I like to think of myself as a comparative political scientist. Upon this basis,  I will attempt to unravel the mysteries of Egypt's emerging electoral systems for you.

The most important idea, in my opinion, is that different forms of electoral systems have different outcomes for emerging democracies. (Barkan, Densham, Rushton, 2006) In general, countries tend to choose between "first past the post systems" (plurality) and proportional representation systems. The United States has a first past the post system. Such systems make it hard for third parties to run effectively. (Norris, 1997) Mixed systems, such as those adopted by Ecuador, Hungary, Russia and Taiwan aim to combine the best of proportional and majoritarian systems. (Norris, 1997)

Eastern Europe and Southern Africa engaged in discussion regarding the likely impacts and tradeoffs of alternative electoral systems before they chose a system. Unfortunately, to my knowledge, Egypt's leadership has not engaged in such a discussion. Rather, the decisions have been made in closed consultations between the Egyptian military and any political participants which the SCAF has chosen to converse with.

Here is a very quick summary of the systems available based on Norris.  For more detail, please look up the articles below. Plurality systems are used for election in the UK, Canada, India, and the US. Plurality systems aim to create a majority. This system penalizes minor parties. It is winner take all and the focus is on effective governance, not representation of minority views. Candidates need a simple plurality to be elected.

Party list systems are used in South Africa, Europe, and Brazil, to name a few countries. "Proportional systems focus on the inclusion of minority voices."  (Norris, 1997: 303) Open party lists (Norway, Finland, Italy) mean that voters can express preferences for particular candidates within the list. Closed party lists mean that voters can only select the party (Israel, Portugal, Spain, Germany). The ranking of the candidates is determined by the political party. Where you are located on the list, determines your chances of getting elected. The additional member system used in Germany combines single-member, and party list constituencies.

Carles Boix's work is relevant to the Egyptian case. He argues that any current government shapes the electoral rules to its advantage. (Boix, 1999) He observes that in an era of limited suffrage, plurality rule was used broadly in Europe. After the turn of the century, most European countries embraced proportional representation.  It is my assessment that Egypt, according to Boix's typology, is currently operating under conditions of very high uncertainty regarding the structure of the electoral arena. Under such conditions, Boix predicts that the ruling elite will select a system most likely to minimize risks. This, he states is a mixed or pure PR system. Interesting, because the SCAF has in fact selected a mixed PR system.

Boix notes that if parties are collections of local notables, then there may be an incentive to embrace single-member districts. These structures, he argues, strengthen local ties and patronage politics. This is in fact what is occurring in Egypt, with the selection of the one third single member independent districts. Under Mubarak, all candidates ran as individuals in a first past the post system. The goal of that system was to ensure solid majorities for the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP). 

Based on the SCAF's most recent ruling, two thirds of constituencies will be allocated according to a closed proportional list-based system, and one third according to the single-winner (first past the post) system. Further, the SCAF has reduced the number of seats in the People's Assembly from 508 to 498.

As I mentioned in a previous post, having one third of seats be elected through a  single-winner system makes electoral districts bigger. If 1/3 of the candidates are under a single-winner system, then the 80 million people of Egypt will elect 166 people as individual candidates. That means that the electoral districts will be divided among 166 candidates. The electoral districts will be larger, which will favor established, wealthy, well-known candidates, (NDP and MB) and disadvantage candidates from new parties.

Add to this a special Egyptian twist. There is a workers and farmers requirement. A certain percentage of people in parliament must be "workers" or "farmers." This sounds good in theory, but in practice, it is prone to corruption. To be named a "worker" or a "farmer" you have to get a certificate which acknowledges you as such from the Egyptian government. This is essentially a back door way of favoring local notables, people like the sherif, or omda, or people from wealthy families.

No system is perfect. As noted above, a first past the post system generally penalizes small parties. However, PR also has its disadvantages. For example, South Africa chose PR to accommodate parties representing racial minorities. (Barkan et. al, 2006) PR systems enhance the power of party leaders at the expense of back benchers and the rank and file. It may reduce opportunities for face to face dialogue and linkages between legislators and citizens, thereby potentially reducing accountability. In other words, citizens residing in a given area are unable to hold a specific MP accountable to their community.

 Finally, none of these systems will necessarily protect the rights of women. A closed PR system may help get women elected, depending on where the parties place women on the lists. If they are at the bottom of the list, for example, they will not get elected.  For this reason, some countries such as Uganda and Rwanda, have put in place requirements that a certain percentage of seats in parliament be reserved for women. A future essay will discuss the pros and cons of each electoral system.

Sources:
Ames, B. (1995) Electoral Strategy under Open-List Proportional Representation," American Journal of Political Science, 39 (2): 406-433.

Barkan, J.D. (2006) "Designing Better Electoral Systems for Emerging Democracies," American Journal of Political Science, 50 (4): 926-939.
Blais, A., Dobrzynska, A. and Indridason, I.  (2005), "To Adopt or Not to Adopt Proportional Representation: The Politics of Institutional Choice.", 35(1): 182-190.
Boix, C. (1999) "Setting the Rules of the Game; The Choice of Electoral Systems in Advanced Democracies," The American Political Science Review, 93 (3): 609-624.
Fick, G. (1999), "The Gender-Sensitive Checklist for Free and Fair Elections," Agenda, (40): 66-74.
Norris, P. (1997) Choosing Electoral Systems: Proportional, Majoritarian and Mixed Systems. International Political Science Review, 18 (3): 297-312.

Egyptian parliamentary election campaigns heat up

Dear readers

We are approximately a month away from the Egyptian parliamentary elections. Hang on to your seatbelts!

The Wafd Party has fielded 332 list-based candidates in 46 electoral constituencies, and 96 individual candidates in 83 constituencies for the upcoming elections. Wafd Party President al-Sayed al-Badawy says there are 23 Coptic candidates on the lists, and 52 female candidates on the lists. Four former members of the NDP were nominated by the Wafd in the Red Sea, Qena, Minya and Sharqiya.

[One important point, it matters where your name is on the list. If your name is on the bottom of the list, and your party does not get very many votes, you will not get a seat in parliament.]

There has been large turnout for candidacy applications for parliament. The Egyptian Bloc, the Freedom party, and Wafd Party all have former NDP candidates on their list.

I am pleased to report that President Obama has asked Field Marshall Tantawi to end the state of emergency, and to end military trials of civilians.

I am sad to report that two activists and bloggers have been summoned by the military prosecutor for questioning regarding the Maspero violence. The bloggers are Alaa Abd El Fattah, and Bahaa Saber. One of the blogger's father reportedly remarked, " we are at a stage where the regime cannot stand freedom of expression anymore and wants to curb it. . ." Both have previously been arrested under Mubarak.

Meanwhile, as elections approach, NGOs say they are experiencing harassment from the government. The Justice Ministry is targeting NGOs who are allegedly receiving foreign funding and are not registered with the Ministry of Social Solidarity.

Sources shortly.~ WMB

List system in upcoming elections?

Election related news round up from Al Masry and Al Jazeera 

Today, Tuesday, Presidential hopeful Mohamed ElBaradei called for the exclusive use of a list-based candidacy system in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

On Twitter, ElBaradei wrote, "Even if it requires the amendment of the Constitutional Declaration, the implementation of the list-based system for 100 percent [of parliamentary seats] is the best guarantee for the representation of all groups following decades of absence of democracy."

Speaking in Damietta at a rally, Presidential hopeful Amr Moussa has called on the ruling SCAF to swiftly hand over power to an elected civilian president. He also emphasized his opposition to the extension of the emergency law.


Youths in Daqahlia Governorate attacked Moussa and called him a remnant of Mubarak’s regime.

Political parties, election dates, and other news you can use

According to my favorite newspaper, Al Masry Al Youm, the SCAF plans to announce the exact dates of the People's Assembly  (lower house) and Shura Council (upper house) elections on September 26, 2011.   Taken together, the People's Assembly and the Shura form the Egyptian parliament.

The SCAF is likely to set November 21, as the starting date for parliamentary elections, according to Al Ahram, the state-run newspaper. However a different source said that the the People's Assembly elections may be on November 21, 2011 and the Shura council elections on Feb 22d, 2012. Each election will be associated with a series of runoffs.

No date has been set for the presidential poll. 

Minister of Local Development Mohamed Ahmed Attiya, according to Al Masry Al Youm, has expressed concerns that the SCAF may cancel the single winner voting system, and only allow elections based on proportional list-based voting.

Various political parties expressed concerns that rules may allow loyalists of the NDP to reemerge. The Muslim Brotherhood has pushed for an election based on proportional lists. Under this system, parties or alliances draw up a list, and voters choose between the different lists, rather than the individuals. South Africa uses such a system.

The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party announced on September 19th that it will compete for more than 40 percent of the 504 seats in the parliament.  This is down from their previous estimates that they would compete for 50 percent of seats. The MB is seen as one of the most organized political forces in Egypt. Other Islamist parties include al-Nour which follows the strict Salafi school of Islam. Further, Egypt's Shia minority, which was oppressed and kept out of both social and political life under Mubarak, has announced that it will form a party. Experts say the Shia may represent less than 100,000 Egyptians. The Shia party will likely be called the Unity and Freedom Party.