Happy Birthday to a More Democratic, if not Revolutionary Egypt

Destroyed wall in Qasr al Aini street

 
Today marks the second anniversary of the Egyptian Revolution. January 25, 2011 marks the day when the Egyptian Revolution really began.  Protesters took to the streets demanding "bread, freedom, and social justice." The protests would last 18 days, ending with the fall of former President Hosni Mubarak.

Where is the country of Egypt now? Some things in Egypt are much improved. The press is much freer. Women have used the opening up of discourse to raise some important issues that require discussion, such as the role of women in Egyptian politics, and the high rate of sexual violence against women in their country. Issues of inequality have been pushed to the fore, and there are signs of democracy. A parliament was elected, if only temporarily, and a president was also elected. These are promising improvements.


This has been a violent birthday for Egypt. There were calls for major protests in Upper Egypt, Nile Delta and the North Coast, including the governorates of Aswan, Qena, the Red Sea, Assiut, Minya, Gharbiya, Kafr al-Sheikh, Damietta, Daqahlia, Suez and Alexandria, and of course, Cairo. Protestors are chanting "Bread, Freedom, and the President lost legitimacy." Others are waving signs saying the Revolution continues. Scores are dead. 

There are tensions between the ruling Muslim Brotherhood and more liberal and revolutionary groups. Clashes have erupted today in Suez and Alexandria. The Muslim Brotherhood has not participated in protests, organizing charitable activities in major cities instead. Many protesters are chanting slogans against President Mohamed Morsy, the Department of Interior, and the Muslim Brotherhood.

The National Salvation Front, led by Mohamed El Baradei, called for protests targeting the domination of Egyptian politics by the Muslim Brotherhood. Police have been firing tear gas on protesters. Hamdeen Sebahi and Khaled Ali also participated in the marches, along with other leftist leaders, and Abdel Fotouh.

Most of the media is going to focus on the challenges facing Egypt now, as well they should. I have said it before, and I will say it again, massive social change, such as the change Egypt is currently undergoing, is a time-consuming process. The French Revolution lasted at least 10 years, from 1789-to 1799. France required two more revolutions 1830 and 1848 before the modern country we now know took shape. Indeed, conservatively estimated, the American Civil Rights Movement took from 1955-1968, or thirteen years. Social upheaval is a time consuming process. A Luta Continua.

A Leader Worth Mourning: Samer Soliman (1968-2012)

As we prepare for Christmas, we celebrate a season of illumination, yet we also mourn many tragedies across the globe. This is appropriate, as Christmas is a time of endings as well as beginnings, and more subtly perhaps, it is also a continuation. The winter solstice is the shortest day of the year. It therefore represents an end as well as a beginning. The birth of Christ, over two thousand years ago represented the beginning of a new world religion, a continuation of revered Abrahamic beliefs, as well as the incorporation of ancient pagan, animist, and pharaonic traditions.

On this day, as we prepare for the 2013th celebration of the prophet whom we call Christ, I want to celebrate the life of one of the most influential politicians, activists, and scholars I have ever met: Dr. Samer Soliman. As I mourn his leaving this planet earth, I also am mourning the passage of a an ill-thought out, undemocratic constitution by the people of Egypt. I pray earnestly for the continuation of the Egyptian democratic opposition on this holy night. I ask all the people of Egypt, and of the world, to keep working to ensure that the promise of the Egyptian Revolution is fulfilled.

Samer would have wanted me to feel all of these feelings. Samer died after a battle with terminal cancer at the age of 44.  He was a Coptic Christian, who was nonetheless a fundamentally secular person. He was a journalist, and a brilliant scholar who wrote The Autumn of Dictatorship: Fiscal Crisis and Political Change in Egypt under Mubarak. He was a Professor of Political Economy at the American University in Cairo, and a founding member of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party. Ahram Online bids writer, activist Samer Soliman farewell.

Yet these dry facts, as impressive as they are, do not do justice to Samer's life. I do not have space to eulogize his life as a devoted spouse and family man to his beautiful wife Mary Shenoda. Nor is there room to discuss his stature as a professor at the American University in Cairo. Rather, I will focus on his work as an activist and a politician, since Egypt is facing a political crisis larger than perhaps any since the January 25th revolution itself. Farewell Samer Soliman (Egypt Independent)

Samer had a vision for the new Egypt.  Samer came from a political family, reared in Egypt's long tradition of secularism, which made Cairo the jewel of North Africa in the 1950s and early 1960s. He drew on these resources when he helped found the Social Democratic Party of Egypt shortly after the January 25th Revolution. I arrived in Cairo on January 25th, 2011, the first day of the revolution. While I tried to understand what was going on in my new home, Samer was on the barricades with students, farmers and workers, fighting valiantly to usher Egypt into a new era of democracy and human rights. He had long been involved in Egypt's historically strong labor movement. He reached out to the European social democratic parties, forged in Europe's struggle for democracy and labor rights in the 1920s, and revived after World War II in the 1950s.

Although Western news sources tend to focus on the Muslim Brotherhood, the Social Democratic Party, one of the few genuinely new post-revolutionary parties to emerge in Egypt, has made a huge mark in this time frame. In coalition with the Free Egyptians and Tagamoo, the SDP formed the Egyptian Bloc ("Kotla). In the new (now dissolved) parliament, the Bloc made an impressive showing for such a new party, winning 7 percent of the available seats. The Kotla became one of the top five parties, and the major party representing women, secularists, democrats, Nubians, bedouins, Copts, human rights advocates, and so many other underrepresented yet crucial segments of Egyptian society.

Inspired by Samer and the SDP, I decided that I needed to document the emergence of Egypt's emerging opposition. I spent countless hours speaking to Samer and other SDP members learning about this new political forces.  Samer spoke to my leadership class on the budget challenges facing the new Egyptian government. He kept the fire burning bright that Egypt could be a democratic country that had room for all constituents, and all citizens. He championed human rights, civil rights, democracy, and social justice.

What would Samer think of the recent constitutional referendum? He would be dissappointed, I am sure, perhaps even frustrated and angry, but he would tell us not to give up. Samer received his doctorate in political science from the prestigious Science Po in Paris, France. As an intellectual and a scholar, he would remind us that the French Revolution spanned decades. He would tell us that like our French compatriots centuries before, we must keep moving forward, clear in our objectives, inspired by the ideals of the Enlightenment.

I like to think that he would be cheered that the April 6 Movement is planning a march on the presidential palace to oppose this constitution that does not truly represent the Egyptian people. He would applaud the fact that after nearly a year of disunity, the Egyptian opposition has finally been galvanized. Indeed, the National Salvation Front, composed of the Constitution Party, Wafd, the Social Democratic Party, the popular current party, and the National Association for Change have stated that they will run for parliament on one list.

I believe that tonight, Samer looks down on us from Heaven. I pray that we remember the message of his life, and all take steps to ensure that his vision becomes a reality. I pray that the Egyptian opposition seizes the moment to unite, and move the revolution, and Egypt's democracy forward.

Merry Christmas Samer. Egypt has lost a great leader, a lion of a man. Like the Lion of Judah, we hear your call. May we reach the mountaintop that you pointed us toward. May the peace of Christ be with you, always.

Your comrade in arms, Warigia

A worrying weekend as the Egyptian presidential election approaches

I am here in Cairo for June. Here in Cairo, things are a bit tense. My students are concerned about me. They worry that I do not have enough family to make staying in Cairo during the upcoming election safe. No matter, I have various colleagues, and we live in Rehab, which is likely the safest place in the greater metropolitan area.

Multiple political matters remain up in the air. First, who will participate in the Constituent Assembly, which is supposed to write Egypt's new constitution, is a matter of great contention. The constituent assembly is supposed to be formed of 100 people representing various components of Egyptian society. Yet, its composition has drawn enormous criticism from secular and liberal forces, including ElBaradei. Second, the Supreme Constitutional Court could disband parliament over the legality of the voting in the recent parliamentary elections. Third, this Saturday and Sunday a presidential runoff is scheduled between Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak's last prime minister, and the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsy. Shafiq may yet be disqualified under the Political Isolation Law. The Supreme Constitutional Court may declare the law illegal. Or, the court may choose not to hear the case.  However, the Court is scheduled to hear the case on June 14, 2012, only two days before the scheduled runoff.

If Shafiq is elected, and then disqualified, it could throw political matters--and the country-- into turmoil.

Shafiq is clearly the SCAF's preferred candidate, and his disqualification would loosen their grip on power. Also, the proximity of a potential court decision to the runoff is nerve-wracking. On the way home on the bus, everyone was making nervous jokes about our safety. One of my students says he is going to Ain Sokhna for the election. We asked him why he thinks Ain Sokhna is safer? He said, it is not safer, but at least it will be relaxing and fun. Good point.

Good article on El Baradei's resignation

Check out this great article written by my former student John Ehab. It is about El Baradei's decision not to run for the presidency in Egypt. 

Following the high Islamist turnout in Egypt’s parliamentary elections, Mohamed ElBaradei, the former director of the UN nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, and a major political player in the Egyptian revolution, withdrew from the upcoming presidential race. 

"My conscience does not allow me to run for the presidency or any other official position unless there is real democracy," ElBaradei said in his statement announcing his decision. He added that those who are currently holding power in Egypt, the Security Council of Armed Forces (SCAF), are no better than ousted former President Hosni Mubarak. 

One of the most important factors that effected ElBaradei’s pullout was the decision to establish the new constitution after the presidential elections, leaving the president’s role undefined until after the office is filled. 

"It is a great loss, but an honorable political stance," says George Ishak, prominent Egyptian opposition figure and member of the National Association for Change (NAC), which ElBaradei founded. 

Ishak anticipates that the military council and the Islamists, who make up around 70 percent of the newly elected parliament, will coordinate to back a candidate. “The two groups might surprise Egyptians by proposing a surprise candidate that will please both the Islamists and the SCAF."

Whether ElBaradei’s decision will limit the chances of secularists or liberals, it will not affect the influence that the Nobel Prize winner has had in helping build youth networks active in the Egyptian public sphere.

To read more: Egypt's warrior for democracy opts out.

The New Year Creaks In

Dear Readers

I do not know how you feel, but I feel exhausted, and the New Year has barely begun.

I think it is very interesting that El Baradei has withdrawn from the Presidential race. The cynics might say that he did it because he was not popular with the grass roots. Who knows? I really admire El Baradei, and I think he is exactly what Egypt needs, but then again, I am not Egyptian, so who am I to say?

He may be able to do better work on the outside as part of the "loyal opposition." I admire the crucial role he played in the Egyptian Revolution. There is plenty of work to be done to keep the Revolution on track, and keeping the SCAF honest as the transition continues. I think that El Baradei, with his global view, and intellectual, yet warm and compassionate persona (I have met him)  is the right person to hold the transitional council to task.



Heba Afify, El Baradei's Withdraw from Presidential Race Egyptian Independent, (January 15, 2012)


He has vowed to focus his efforts on organizing youth and concentrating on the basic demands of the Revolution, including Bread, Freedom and Human Dignity.  I think El Baradei will be Egypt's Gandhi.

~WMB

List system in upcoming elections?

Election related news round up from Al Masry and Al Jazeera 

Today, Tuesday, Presidential hopeful Mohamed ElBaradei called for the exclusive use of a list-based candidacy system in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

On Twitter, ElBaradei wrote, "Even if it requires the amendment of the Constitutional Declaration, the implementation of the list-based system for 100 percent [of parliamentary seats] is the best guarantee for the representation of all groups following decades of absence of democracy."

Speaking in Damietta at a rally, Presidential hopeful Amr Moussa has called on the ruling SCAF to swiftly hand over power to an elected civilian president. He also emphasized his opposition to the extension of the emergency law.


Youths in Daqahlia Governorate attacked Moussa and called him a remnant of Mubarak’s regime.

Letter to Donald Horowitz (long version)

Dear editors, 

I am writing to comment on an excellent article by Donald Horowitz about Egypt published in the Summer 2011 issue of the Wilson Quarterly.

I write not to quibble with Horowitz' largely thoughtful analysis, but to provide some new information and some nuance. In that article, Horowitz makes the following arguments. He argues that due to the short time table for the current elections, the well organized Muslim Brotherhood  (MB) and some reconstituted version of the old regime's National Democratic Party (NDP) will win a large share of the 508 seats in Egypt's lower house of parliament (the People's Assembly). He also notes how important it is to determine the rules that govern how elections are structured. The proportional list system, argues Horowitz, will be beneficial to liberal, secular parties.Finally, he points out that lessons from other nations teach us that the greater the number of individuals involved in drafting a constitution, the higher the resulting level of democracy.He makes an important note that the technical rules around drafting the constitution matter, and can lead to a higher level of democracy.

I would like to make the following three points in response to his article.

First, I agree that the MB will likely benefit from earlier elections. It appears, however, that parliamentary elections will not be held in September. Nor will candidacy even begin in late September, as previously thought. Previously, we had thought elections would be held in November. Now, however,  fluidity remains in the scheduled election dates. Mohammed El Baradei and other presidential candidates have asked for Presidential elections to be held in February because they need time to regroup.

Many analysts say that the MB, Islamists, and the remnants of the old regime wish to have elections as soon as possible, because their forces are more organized. The sooner elections are held, they argue, the better the MB and NDP will do. By contrast, later elections will assist the secular groups, and leftists.

The risk in delaying elections is that due to delay, there will  be no elections. Perhaps I am wrong, but personally, I would prefer a government which includes representation from an elected Muslim Brotherhood pressured by moderate forces to a government run by decree by an unelected SCAF.  By delaying elections, the SCAF is left in place, which increases the period of time during which Egypt is ruled by a military junta. The Muslim Brotherhood is not the most radical of Islamist forces on the ground in Egypt. Further, the Muslim Brotherhood has shown both the ability and the willingness to converse with secular forces. Finally, it is likely that the Muslim Brotherhood will win far fewer seats than outside observers fear.


Second, I would like to note that the Egyptian political scene is vibrant and varied. With the advent of the Revolution, new leftist parties have emerged. These include the Public Social League, or the Coalition of Socialist parties (Al Tahalof al Shabee Al Eshterakee).  They are firmly committed to the civil state, the rights of women, improvements in health care and education, and supporting the farmers, the workers, and the youth. This group has solid intellectual credentials, significant experience, and a sophisticated long-term strategy. They may not win an enormous amount of votes in the first election, but they are certain to be influential on the Egyptian political scene in the coming years. Another moderate leftist party in the vein of the British Labor party, or the German Social Democrats, is the Egyptian Social Democrat party. This party includes many Anglo Christians and Copts, but is styled in the grand old tradition of European moderate left.

In addition to the more leftist parties, a new generation of liberal, free market parties are emerging in Egypt. These include the Free Egyptians (Hezb Al Masreen Al Ahrrar) party. This party was established by telecommunications mogul Naguib Sawiris, and supports free enterprise principles. It supports improved equality for women and Copts, a civilian government, and major efforts to reduce poverty. Another important liberal party is the Democratic Front Party (Hezb Al Gabha Al Democrateya). This party was extant under the Mubarak government, but refused to participate in parliamentary elections. It fought for measures to secure fair elections under Mubarak. The party participated in the Egyptian Revolution, and is popular with middle-aged Egyptian voters. Amr Hamzawy — a perennial favorite among the youth due to his good looks, charisma, and impressive intellectual credentials — is currently affiliated with the Egyptian Freedom Party (Masr Al Horeya). He has returned from his post with the Carnegie Endowment in Beirut to help build political awareness in Egypt and is currently teaching at the American University in Cairo. The Egyptian Freedom party supports democracy, delegation of authority, the sovereignty of law, equality, and a reduction in social classes. The party also supports decentralization and more autonomy for governorates.

My final observation is that who selects the people on the Constitution drafting task force is extremely important. Originally, the representatives from the task force were to come from parliament. Currently, the SCAF is stating that it will select all 100 members of that task force. This is extremely problematic. As Horowitz points out, it is important for a multitude of groups to be involved in drafting the constitution. If the SCAF selects the groups in the constitutional task force, it will drastically limit diversity of composition, as well as views. The referendum task force, for example, had no women. Obviously, Copts need representation on this task force, but so do people from Upper Egypt, Nubians, women, leftists, secularists, and other minorities. At this point, the SCAF seems committed mainly to perpetuating its own existence as the head of Egyptian government. Accordingly the most important details to get right at this point,  are ones of process and inclusion. A broad swath of the Egyptian people need to have some say in who writes the constitution. And the Egyptian people need a hand in helping to determine which procedures will be used to ensure free and fair elections.

When will the Egyptian Parliamentary and Presidential Elections be Held?

The million dollar question is when will elections be held in Egypt? The short answer is that it is not yet clear.

Presidential hopefuls, including Mohammed El Baradei have asked that the SCAF hold the upcoming Presidential elections in February. Seven presidential candidates met on Tuesday.

Al Masry al Youm reports

Presidential hopefuls Mohamed ElBaradei, Amr Moussa, Mohamed Selim al-Awa, Abdel Moneim Abouel Fotouh, Hamdeen Sabbahi and Hazem Abu Ismail took part in the meeting, in addition to Hesham el-Bastawisi, who participated via telephone from abroad.

Presidential Hopefuls Demand Elections be held in February 

On September 14, the SCAF said that it is willing to amend the law on parliamentary elections currently scheduled for November. The Egyptian parliament is composed of two houses: The People's Assembly and the Shura. However, it says that 50 percent of seats should go to workers, and 50 percent to farmers. This is interesting, because who will decide and define who workers are and who farmers are.

In July, the SCAF passed a law suggesting that half the parliament should be elected on an individual basis and half the parliament should be elected on a proportional closed list basis. The press says that the "Military council passed a law." However, in the absence of a parliament, perhaps the correct terminology should be that the "military council issued a decree."

In August, Egypt's High Election Commission formed six subcommittees to manage the oversight of parliamentary elections. These subcommittees are in charge of 1) voting and balloting stations 2) voters lists including names and IDs 3) candidates campaign logos 4) investigating and addressing elections related complaints 5) the participation of election observers 6) rules regulating electoral propaganda.
The Muslim Brotherhood, however, does not want any delays. They say that the legitimacy of the transitional period will end on September 27th.

However, many analysts say that the MB, Islamists, and the remnants of the old regime wish to have elections as soon as possible, because there forces are more organized. The sooner elections are held, the better the MB and NDP will do. Later elections will assist the secular groups, and leftists. The risk, however, is that delaying elections will result in no elections.  Further, by delaying elections, the SCAF is left in place, which increases the period of time during which Egypt is ruled by a military junta.


Meanwhile, in another ominous portent, Al Jazeera's Mubashr Misr channel has been shut down and new satellite channels will not be authorized. Without a free media, it is difficult to hold a free and fair election. Some analysts worry that this media crackdown is an effort to prevent coverage of vote-rigging and other anti-democratic practices.

Sources

http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/495780
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/495805
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/495770
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/484067

Fall back into politics

It appears that the SCAF plans to designate September 27, 2011 as the opening day for candidacy for the parliamentary election. Al Ahram reports that a law regulating electoral constituencies is likely to be announced as well, which will likely decrease the number of constituencies. Liberals and leftists dislike the law and have called for postponing elections, whereas the MBs and Salafis, as well as the Wafd, welcomed this news.

The lower house of parliament in Egypt is called the People's Assembly. According to Sarah Carr, writing in Al Masry Al Youm, Saad Eddin Ibrahim predicts that the Muslim Brotherhood will be the largest bloc in parliament, but will not have a majority.

There may be some large protests on September 9th calling for a civil state, an end to military trials, and protection of basic freedoms. The National Association for Change has called for a protest this Friday to rescue the Revolution. It calls for purging the police apparatus and ending thuggery, removing corrupt figures from government, ending military trials of civilians, and supporting judicial independence.

Mohammed El Baradei has called for a road map for the current transitional period of military rule in Egypt. Al Masry Al Youm reports that the Egyptian opposition is concerned about the Interim Constitution. The SCAF believes that it ensures a smooth transfer of power. The opposition things that it is not a sufficient guarantee for a handover of power to a civilian government, because it does not specify dates for elections.  I tend to side with the opposition, because the SCAF rules by decree, and sets dates as it suits them.

Blogger Mikel Nabil Sanad has been imprisoned for "insulting the armed forces" since April. Reporters Without Borders have called for his release.

Mohammed El Baradei: We are born with a call for freedom

Dear Readers

Sorry to gush, but today I met Mohamed El Baradei, Nobel Prize Winner, former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and revolutionary. One of the really cool things about my current job is that I work with Dr. Laila El Baradei, who is the sister of MEB. I attended a lecture today organized by students. It was called the Leadership for Education and Development Program. The theme was "Political Activism." Mohamed El Baradei was one of the speakers. Here are the best effort I could make of notes from this event. The event was in Arabic, so I listened to the translator. Notes are mostly verbatim, but some places I summarize. These are indicated by [..] Cheers, WMB

Here is the very short Al Masry Al Youm article about it El Baradei calls for 50 strong civil consultative council.

"We do respect the Army's role because it was the protector of the revolution. Today, the Army could appoint a consultative council to help it govern. Transparency is the road to Democracy."

"Do we have the kind of parties that enrich the debate? No, we do not. It does not matter if we have a parliamentary or a presidential system. There is no perfect democracy in the world. Every day, we learn something new. It is so important to be critical, to think critically. The important thing is that you think. This is something the previous regime killed in us."

"[Law must change with the times] In the US, in 1954 they said segregation was constitutional. The Highest Court said segregation was constitutional. The same court in the 1970s said we need integration. In terms of politics in Egypt, we need a coalition. We don't necessarily want a proportional system if it will result in distortion. We want everyone to be represented. The electorate should feel you represent their interests."

"The recent law requiring that a party have 5000 signatures from 29 governorates and publish in two state owned papers is an obstruction. Each of these signatures must be publicly notarized.: This is an obstruction, an impediment. [The new parties should be allowed] Before we promulgate the laws, we need the laws to reflect the views of the people. We are still holding the old mindset. The laws are not like the scripture, or the Bible. We should be able to change. Do not restrict freedom of association."

"Democracy means respect of the majority while protecting the rights of the minority. The judiciary must be independent. Open the windows of democracy for freedom. Give the people the right to debate."

"In the 1971 Constitution, it said freedom of religious affiliation or belief is absolute."

"One half of Egyptians are below the poverty line. People went to the referendum because for the first time, they felt their voice was heard. One year when I finished working at the agency [IAEA] I defended the right of the Muslim Brotherhood to participate in politics. Each citizen should have the same rights or duties. Turkey has an Islami party but the country is completely secular. [This is the model we should follow] No one should impose his or her religious affiliation on anyone else."

"The youth are ready to hold office. I visited all the Eastern European states, their leaders are young, between 30 and 40."

"In a press conference, I said Egypt would live in this malady unless Mubarak was tried, or left the country. We should start with the head of corruption who is the former president.  There are 500 prominent figures who should be tried. Does it make sense that we have a camel battle during the Black Wednesday of the revolution? We err, but we need to learn from our mistakes. The only perfection is in God."

"The characteristic of democracy is that we do not need to take rushed decision. Take a slow decision with many views considered. I live near the pyramid side. I look at the luxurious buildings, and then the slum areas. We do a lot of injustice. How do we reduce the gap of poor and rich? We need access to education and health care. You have to know your budget, and allocate appropriately. The AUC graduates knowledgeable people. They need to help the poor. The short term goals of the country should be

• Education
• Health
• Housing
• Food

"We lack credibility with the people. If you are planting your fields, ensure a minimal level of food security. Our priorities today [must be to] build the Egyptian human being. [Help people] to live a decent life. I met John Kerry. I said that the money you spend on terrorism is squandered. The human being, when he loses hope in life, bombs himself. Help the young people meet their aspirations, and they will not be terrorists."

"Can we say that whole nationalities should be denied entry to Egypt? We should think rationally. In the past it used to take us a year to get a visa to Western countries. [We should not repeat that mistake]."

"The constitutional referendum was controversial. It was not proceeded by national dialogue. Would I have prevented [unclear] from seeking the presidency because his wife was French? No. We should think about what we are saying."

"I hope that we continue to put our faith in the Army. I do not object to the army itself, but rather to the Army as the [essence] of the state. Should we have mandatory military service? Obligatory enrollment in the Army for three years? All these issues are subject to discussion. The Army, Police Officers and Judiciary should vote. [They have not in the past] Maybe mandatory service is good, but we should discuss this. Maybe we need a reserve, or a volunteer service. I cannot give you the answer, but we need to have a public discussion of these issues."

"42% of Egyptians live under the poverty line, but realistically,90 percent of Egyptians are poor. We must guarantee people a free and dignified life. In 2010 the minimum wage was 35 LE  a month (about 7 dollars) Now it is 400 LE (about 80 dollars). The Editor in Chief of a Government Newspaper was making One million pounds a month (A lot, 250,000 dollars) It is not that the country is poor, but we need to redistribute the wealth."

"Article 2 of the Constitution. There is a great sensitivity to this. Article 2 does reflect Islamic principles. Equality and Justice are also Islamic principles. It is about the interpretation of the article. Let us focus on the real problems facing Egypt. I was in Cuba. The education rate there is 100% despite the American embargo of forty years. Castro's son chaired a program at UNESCO on how to reach out to people in villages to educate them."

Question from Audience: Do you think that Egyptian people are politically mature enough for democracy?
Answer. "The elite in Egypt has been polarized. But now, people are excited about the chance to vote. Many people voted in the referendum even though they were not well informed. [This is okay, people will learn as they exercise their right to vote.] Democracy is freedom and social justice. We are born with a call for freedom. It is inherent in us."

QFA: What should the position of the New Egypt be towards Israel? Answer: "Israel marginalized the Palestinians. The Arab World did not deal with the issue. There is no balance of power. Israel will come to us when Arab states become strong. Iran and Turkey are two strong states. A strong state is measured by what you contribute to world civilization. The Palestinian problem will not be solved in a military way. In the 40s, we had the Arab League. Recently, Arab regimes have become a joke."

QFA: Should we have a parliamentary or presidential system? Answer: "We need a popular consensus. We need an alternative to the authoritarian example. India is progressing ahead because it is a democracy. Unleash the powers and freedom of the human being."

QFA: Do you believe that Egypt can become an Islamic State? Answer: "We are always talking about mottos and slogans. Does religious reference mean we have divine and lofty values? Yes. If we believe in the true spirit of Islam, Christianity and Judaism, we must have good intentions. I met the Dalai Lama. The Dalai Lama says that prayer should be linked to action. Islam says that also. It is better to do an action, then spend the day in the mosque praying. When we speak of this political coalition [that should rule Egypt.] We should solve these problems within a humanitarian framework."

Amending the Egyptian Constitution Part 2

10:20 a.m

Hi all, the vote is today. VERY EXCITING!!! This is really important. So many African countries are revising their constitutions. Kenya just revised its constitution and it passed on August 4, 2010. There is a lot to learn from Kenya. Sudan is newly independent and they will be working on their constitution soon. Lets learn from each others as Africans.

10:25 a.m.
As I mentioned, I attended a crash course on training for the constitution held by a colleague, Professor Mervat Abou Ouf, at the American University in Cairo on March 16, 2011. She gave a very lucid presentation, and she is my new hero. Here is her link.

http://www.aucegypt.edu/fac/profiles/pages/mervatabouauf.aspx

According to Professor Mervat Abou Ouf, the parliament is currently dissolved, and the constitution is on pause.

The proposed amendments make several changes to the Egyptian Constitution of 1971. Here are her comments on just a few of the amendments.

75: First, it amends part 75, to say that the Egyptian President should be born to two Egyptian parents, and cannot marry a non-Egyptian. One issue with this is that so many people left the country and lived abroad while Mubarak was in power, that it really discriminates against those returning in exile. This rule does not require that one be born in Egypt! Interestingly, in theory, one could be born in France, speak French but no Arabic. Then, one could marry a French Egyptian. In theory, you could never have lived in Egypt, yet still be eligible to be President. In addition, there is some argument about the Arabic, as it suggests that you cannot marry a non-Egyptian wife. I can neither confirm nor deny this, because I cannot speak Arabic, but it certainly  indicates women cannot run for president, if it is in fact true.

76: This provision seems desirable. It makes it easier to run for President. Under the old Constitution, only Mubarak's son Gamal really could have qualified for the presidency, because the qualifications were so restrictive. Now, this provision provides three ways to run for president, You may be nominated by members of Parliament in two chambers, you may be nominated by 30,000 citizens in 15 governorates, or you may be nominated by a party holding at least one seat in the Parliament.

Say No to Everything
One reaction to the proposed referendum is that it is unreasonable to make people vote on the Constititutional amendments as a unified batch. It is an all or nothing strategy. Holding the vote at this time is risky, and controversial due to the high illiteracy rate in Egypt, and the speed with which the amendments are being pushed through. One really must ask if citizens have had enough time to reflect on these amendments. In addition, the team which wrote the constitutional amendments was appointed by the military or the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces as they are known here. This is hardly a democratic process. It would be better if people had the choice to vote on each provision separately. In today's vote, there are only two options. Yes, and No. It would be much better if the Egyptian people had a third choice, such as the choice to vote that they want a completely new constitution.

Egyptians Vote on Constitutional Changes
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2011/03/18/world/middleeast/AP-ML-Egypt.html?hp

According to the New York Times, this is the first major test of the country's transition to democracy since the overthrow of Mubarak. Arguably, in my view, this is the first remotely free election ever held in Egypt, and  that is to say, ever. . . .

11:48 a.m.
What happens if people vote No on the referendum?
The upside to voting No is that it does not revive the 1971 Constitution. The downside to voting no is that there is basically military rule with no President, no Parliament, and no Constitution. I personally was very happy with my interactions with the military yesterday in Tahrir Square. That being said, Egypt is currently under a military dictatorship, and that is not a comfortable feeling for those who love democracy. There is no guarantee that the currently friendly military could not turn on a dime and become a violent dictatorial regime. In the event of a No vote the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces could, possibly, put a decree in place saying they are in power for X number of months. It is not clear what will happen from a legal and a constitutional perspective if the people vote No.

What happens if People Vote Yes in the Referendum?
According to Professor Abou Ouf, the people who support a yes vote are the military, the people seeking safety and regularity, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the National Democratic Party (supporters of the former Mubarak Government). In addition, some other extremists, in her view, may support a yes vote. Concerns include the fact, mentioned above, that there has not been enough time to review the changes. In addition, the articles are not finalized, and people are not very clear even regarding the Arabic construction of some of the points, which could change the legal meaning of the document. In addition, and disturbingly, voting for the amendments would seem to reinstate the 1971 constitution. In a strange set of circumstances, the amendments do not account for the fact that this constitution which requires a Parliament and a President, would be in place in the absence of those two figures, but a military government would be in place instead. This means that the Constitution would actually be violated while it was in force.

Presidential vs. Parliamentary System
The issue of whether Egypt should have a parliamentary or presidential system, or a mixed system is not addressed at all by the amendments, but should be considered before Egyptians pass a new constitution.  There is a vast political science literature on this, and it is an important matter. Thanks to Steve Levitsky of Harvard University for teaching me this idea in his class on Comparative Politics.
http://scholar.harvard.edu/levitsky/home

Drawbacks for New Political Parties
In theory, there are twenty four political parties in Egypt. Nonetheless, they are very weak. As a result, the main party is the National Democratic Party, Mubarak's old party. In addition, the loyal opposition has been the Muslim Brotherhood. They are very well organized. Some say they are fielding as many as three new parties in the new election. What will happen to less organized parties who are not of the ancien regime, but also do not believe in the Muslim Brotherhood.

1:14 p.m. According to a student,  violence is breaking out at polling stations in Giza. People are voting in more than one committee and penetrating rooms with falsified paper. Asyout and Sharkeya are becoming more violent.

Other Concerns:
A Yes vote could be problematic for several reasons. It is unclear if the President, (whenever Egypt gets one) could run again after two terms. In addition, there will be numerous elections this year. There may be as many as seven (7) elections in less than one year. It is very hard to keep track of everything that is going on right now, and citizens are likely to suffer from election fatigue. It is unlikely that the old government is not going to relinquish power without a struggle.


References
El baradei, supporters, attacked at polling station.
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/365228
The Found art of voting
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/365137
Thug Life, Pro Mubarak Bullies Break their silence
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/365137
Frustrated Zamalek Residents leave three hour queue
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/365137
Phone interview with RM, NDP supporter and youth voter, March 19, 2011.
Phone interview with MF, businessman and no voter, March 20, 2011. 
Egyptians Turn Out in large Numbers to Vote on Constitutional Referendum
http://www.rferl.org/content/egypt_referendum_/2343176.html