Cancelled Elections and Violent Clashes

Violent clashes going on between central security forces and dozens of protesters at Kasr al-Nil bridge, Cairo, 11 March 2013. Photo Credit Hazem Abdel Hamid of the Egypt Independent.

Three topics are heatedly being discussed right now in Egypt: the cancelled parliamentary elections, steps towards economic reform, and police protests throughout the country. 

A top court cancelled parliamentary elections scheduled for April referencing confusion regarding election laws in the new constitution and political instability across the country. This decision launches Egypt’s political transition back into legal limbo, leaving the upper house (the Shura) as the temporary legislature. The street violence since late January and the anticipation of more violence add to the doubts about feasibility of holding a vote in certain parts of the country. Further, the National Salvation Front has declared it would boycott any lection, demanding the restoration of stability and the overhaul of Egypt’s new Constitution (NYT-Kirkpatrick). Cairo University professor, Mustafa Kamel al-Sayyed explained that the decision to cancel the April legislative polls looks bad for Morsy. “It is a bad decision for the president and bolsters the feeling that his decisions are never thought out and that his advisers are not competent.” Other analysts offered similar sentiments that this is just another sign that Morsy’s presidency is failing (Daily-Star).

After months of teetering towards economic collapse, with soaring unemployment, a gaping budget deficit, and steep declines in the currency’s value (The Egyptian Pound) , Egypt is starting to get serious about economic reform. US Secretary of State John Kerry visited Egypt at the beginning of March and urged that the country needs to institute economic reforms and satisfy the conditions the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has set. IMF has agreed to give Egypt a loan for $4.8 billion if arrangements are met. Further, the U.S. and the European Union have stated they are prepared to provide substantial assistance if there is an agreement made between Egypt and IMF (NYT-Gordon). With agreements yet to be made, IMF offered Egypt a $750 million rescue credit, which it rejected. Egyptian Finance Minister El-Morsi Hegazy claimed that since the country has started implementing a full economic reform program, it was entitled to the larger loan by the IMF, not an emergency loan. He assures the country that talks will continue throughout this month (Aljazeera).

The police force was widely regarded to be the underpinning of former President Hosni Mubarak. The post-Revolution police force has continuously been accused of not reforming and cases have been cited throughout the country which accuse the police of being even worse since the 2011 revolution. Human rights groups accuse the police of acting like armed gangs, laying down collective punishment. Ahmed Helmy, Egypt’s deputy Minster of Interior, denies all claims of police abuse and states there is no evidence of such occurrences, just political conflicts (NPR).  Since January 6^th, over 70 people have been killed during protests, which investigations are currently underway. Similarly, 16 policeman have been killed and almost a thousand injured in encounters with anti-regime protestor. Several police departments and security camps throughout the country staged strikes, demanding better arms to defend themselves as well as an end to the politicization of the force (Egypt Independent).

~WMB with assistance from Jillian Underwood 

The book of lists: unraveling the mystery of Egypt's emerging electoral system

Dear readers

I am, by training, an expert in public policy.  I like to think of myself as a comparative political scientist. Upon this basis,  I will attempt to unravel the mysteries of Egypt's emerging electoral systems for you.

The most important idea, in my opinion, is that different forms of electoral systems have different outcomes for emerging democracies. (Barkan, Densham, Rushton, 2006) In general, countries tend to choose between "first past the post systems" (plurality) and proportional representation systems. The United States has a first past the post system. Such systems make it hard for third parties to run effectively. (Norris, 1997) Mixed systems, such as those adopted by Ecuador, Hungary, Russia and Taiwan aim to combine the best of proportional and majoritarian systems. (Norris, 1997)

Eastern Europe and Southern Africa engaged in discussion regarding the likely impacts and tradeoffs of alternative electoral systems before they chose a system. Unfortunately, to my knowledge, Egypt's leadership has not engaged in such a discussion. Rather, the decisions have been made in closed consultations between the Egyptian military and any political participants which the SCAF has chosen to converse with.

Here is a very quick summary of the systems available based on Norris.  For more detail, please look up the articles below. Plurality systems are used for election in the UK, Canada, India, and the US. Plurality systems aim to create a majority. This system penalizes minor parties. It is winner take all and the focus is on effective governance, not representation of minority views. Candidates need a simple plurality to be elected.

Party list systems are used in South Africa, Europe, and Brazil, to name a few countries. "Proportional systems focus on the inclusion of minority voices."  (Norris, 1997: 303) Open party lists (Norway, Finland, Italy) mean that voters can express preferences for particular candidates within the list. Closed party lists mean that voters can only select the party (Israel, Portugal, Spain, Germany). The ranking of the candidates is determined by the political party. Where you are located on the list, determines your chances of getting elected. The additional member system used in Germany combines single-member, and party list constituencies.

Carles Boix's work is relevant to the Egyptian case. He argues that any current government shapes the electoral rules to its advantage. (Boix, 1999) He observes that in an era of limited suffrage, plurality rule was used broadly in Europe. After the turn of the century, most European countries embraced proportional representation.  It is my assessment that Egypt, according to Boix's typology, is currently operating under conditions of very high uncertainty regarding the structure of the electoral arena. Under such conditions, Boix predicts that the ruling elite will select a system most likely to minimize risks. This, he states is a mixed or pure PR system. Interesting, because the SCAF has in fact selected a mixed PR system.

Boix notes that if parties are collections of local notables, then there may be an incentive to embrace single-member districts. These structures, he argues, strengthen local ties and patronage politics. This is in fact what is occurring in Egypt, with the selection of the one third single member independent districts. Under Mubarak, all candidates ran as individuals in a first past the post system. The goal of that system was to ensure solid majorities for the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP). 

Based on the SCAF's most recent ruling, two thirds of constituencies will be allocated according to a closed proportional list-based system, and one third according to the single-winner (first past the post) system. Further, the SCAF has reduced the number of seats in the People's Assembly from 508 to 498.

As I mentioned in a previous post, having one third of seats be elected through a  single-winner system makes electoral districts bigger. If 1/3 of the candidates are under a single-winner system, then the 80 million people of Egypt will elect 166 people as individual candidates. That means that the electoral districts will be divided among 166 candidates. The electoral districts will be larger, which will favor established, wealthy, well-known candidates, (NDP and MB) and disadvantage candidates from new parties.

Add to this a special Egyptian twist. There is a workers and farmers requirement. A certain percentage of people in parliament must be "workers" or "farmers." This sounds good in theory, but in practice, it is prone to corruption. To be named a "worker" or a "farmer" you have to get a certificate which acknowledges you as such from the Egyptian government. This is essentially a back door way of favoring local notables, people like the sherif, or omda, or people from wealthy families.

No system is perfect. As noted above, a first past the post system generally penalizes small parties. However, PR also has its disadvantages. For example, South Africa chose PR to accommodate parties representing racial minorities. (Barkan et. al, 2006) PR systems enhance the power of party leaders at the expense of back benchers and the rank and file. It may reduce opportunities for face to face dialogue and linkages between legislators and citizens, thereby potentially reducing accountability. In other words, citizens residing in a given area are unable to hold a specific MP accountable to their community.

 Finally, none of these systems will necessarily protect the rights of women. A closed PR system may help get women elected, depending on where the parties place women on the lists. If they are at the bottom of the list, for example, they will not get elected.  For this reason, some countries such as Uganda and Rwanda, have put in place requirements that a certain percentage of seats in parliament be reserved for women. A future essay will discuss the pros and cons of each electoral system.

Sources:
Ames, B. (1995) Electoral Strategy under Open-List Proportional Representation," American Journal of Political Science, 39 (2): 406-433.

Barkan, J.D. (2006) "Designing Better Electoral Systems for Emerging Democracies," American Journal of Political Science, 50 (4): 926-939.
Blais, A., Dobrzynska, A. and Indridason, I.  (2005), "To Adopt or Not to Adopt Proportional Representation: The Politics of Institutional Choice.", 35(1): 182-190.
Boix, C. (1999) "Setting the Rules of the Game; The Choice of Electoral Systems in Advanced Democracies," The American Political Science Review, 93 (3): 609-624.
Fick, G. (1999), "The Gender-Sensitive Checklist for Free and Fair Elections," Agenda, (40): 66-74.
Norris, P. (1997) Choosing Electoral Systems: Proportional, Majoritarian and Mixed Systems. International Political Science Review, 18 (3): 297-312.

Election Deadline in Egypt

Today's papers are abuzz with the two-day extension granted by the High Elections Commission to prospective parliamentary candidates.  (Until October 22, 2011)

Egypt's main electoral coalitions have submitted their candidacy papers. One big coalition consists of the Egyptian Bloc (mostly liberal and leftist), which will field at least 332 candidates in the upcoming parliamentary elections. The Bloc includes the Free Egyptians party, Al-Tagammu, and the Egyptian Social Democratic Party. There are also members of the Revolutionary Youth running with the Bloc.

Amr Hamzawy (who works with me here in PPAD) belongs to the Misr Horreya party, which apparently withdrew from the Bloc and is now allied with the Popular Socialist Alliance, whom I have interviewed and the Arab Nasserists. Their group is to be called "The Revolution is On." 

The Democratic Alliance, led by the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party, is fielding 265 candidates. Sobhy Saleh, of the MB, says that "Egypt is an Islamic State, and nothing else." The Salafi's and the MB have had a spat, and now it seems that the Salafis (Nour and Asala parties) have allied themselves with the Jama'a al-Islamiya Construction and Development Party.

There is also a youth movement called the Coalition of Youth, which includes the April 6th Movement, the Popular Alliance, and the Youth for Freedom and Justice, as well as the Equality and Development Party.

The People's Assembly consists of 498 seats, two-thirds of which are allocated to the closed party list system, and one third to the individual candidate system.

Around 3024 people had registered as of last Monday as parliamentary candidates, most of them for the individual candidates seats. Many of those who registered as independents in the first seven days were members of the former NDP.

Selected Sources
Gamal Essam El-Din, "Little Election Wars," Al-Ahram Weekly 
"Brotherhood party: We will compete for over 50% of People's Assembly Seats," Al Masry Al Youm 
Heba Fahmy,"Egyptian bloc to field over 300 candidates, Democratic Alliance still to determine number," Daily News Egypt

Egyptian Election Update, October 18, 2011

On Wednesday October 12, 2011, election committees nationwide began accepting nomination applications for Egypt's November 28th Parliamentary elections.

Many observers believe that the MB's Freedom and Justice party is extremely prepared for these elections organizationally and politically.

Meanwhile, papers reported that some political forces are considering boycotting the elections. The SCAF has announced that two thirds of parliamentary seats will be allocated to list based candidacies, and one third to the single winner system. Political parties have expressed  concerns that the single-winner system favors remnants of the NDP.

Meanwhile, confrontations between the Salafis and the MB are escalating. There are two major coalitions. The MB Freedom and Justice party is a member of the Democratic Alliance. A recently formed coalition of Salafi parties includes the Jama'a al-Islamiya party. The Salafis are ultraconservative Islamists, and have left the Democratic Alliance to form their own coalition. ("Confrontation Escalates between Brotherhood and Salafis," Al Masry Al Youm, October 17, 2011) The President of the Omma al-Gadid Party filed two lawsuits against the Democratic Alliance and the MB's Freedom and Justice Party. He accused them of stacking the list with their candidates, while underrepresenting the 18 alliance member parties.

Political parties, election dates, and other news you can use

According to my favorite newspaper, Al Masry Al Youm, the SCAF plans to announce the exact dates of the People's Assembly  (lower house) and Shura Council (upper house) elections on September 26, 2011.   Taken together, the People's Assembly and the Shura form the Egyptian parliament.

The SCAF is likely to set November 21, as the starting date for parliamentary elections, according to Al Ahram, the state-run newspaper. However a different source said that the the People's Assembly elections may be on November 21, 2011 and the Shura council elections on Feb 22d, 2012. Each election will be associated with a series of runoffs.

No date has been set for the presidential poll. 

Minister of Local Development Mohamed Ahmed Attiya, according to Al Masry Al Youm, has expressed concerns that the SCAF may cancel the single winner voting system, and only allow elections based on proportional list-based voting.

Various political parties expressed concerns that rules may allow loyalists of the NDP to reemerge. The Muslim Brotherhood has pushed for an election based on proportional lists. Under this system, parties or alliances draw up a list, and voters choose between the different lists, rather than the individuals. South Africa uses such a system.

The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party announced on September 19th that it will compete for more than 40 percent of the 504 seats in the parliament.  This is down from their previous estimates that they would compete for 50 percent of seats. The MB is seen as one of the most organized political forces in Egypt. Other Islamist parties include al-Nour which follows the strict Salafi school of Islam. Further, Egypt's Shia minority, which was oppressed and kept out of both social and political life under Mubarak, has announced that it will form a party. Experts say the Shia may represent less than 100,000 Egyptians. The Shia party will likely be called the Unity and Freedom Party.

When will the Egyptian Parliamentary and Presidential Elections be Held?

The million dollar question is when will elections be held in Egypt? The short answer is that it is not yet clear.

Presidential hopefuls, including Mohammed El Baradei have asked that the SCAF hold the upcoming Presidential elections in February. Seven presidential candidates met on Tuesday.

Al Masry al Youm reports

Presidential hopefuls Mohamed ElBaradei, Amr Moussa, Mohamed Selim al-Awa, Abdel Moneim Abouel Fotouh, Hamdeen Sabbahi and Hazem Abu Ismail took part in the meeting, in addition to Hesham el-Bastawisi, who participated via telephone from abroad.

Presidential Hopefuls Demand Elections be held in February 

On September 14, the SCAF said that it is willing to amend the law on parliamentary elections currently scheduled for November. The Egyptian parliament is composed of two houses: The People's Assembly and the Shura. However, it says that 50 percent of seats should go to workers, and 50 percent to farmers. This is interesting, because who will decide and define who workers are and who farmers are.

In July, the SCAF passed a law suggesting that half the parliament should be elected on an individual basis and half the parliament should be elected on a proportional closed list basis. The press says that the "Military council passed a law." However, in the absence of a parliament, perhaps the correct terminology should be that the "military council issued a decree."

In August, Egypt's High Election Commission formed six subcommittees to manage the oversight of parliamentary elections. These subcommittees are in charge of 1) voting and balloting stations 2) voters lists including names and IDs 3) candidates campaign logos 4) investigating and addressing elections related complaints 5) the participation of election observers 6) rules regulating electoral propaganda.
The Muslim Brotherhood, however, does not want any delays. They say that the legitimacy of the transitional period will end on September 27th.

However, many analysts say that the MB, Islamists, and the remnants of the old regime wish to have elections as soon as possible, because there forces are more organized. The sooner elections are held, the better the MB and NDP will do. Later elections will assist the secular groups, and leftists. The risk, however, is that delaying elections will result in no elections.  Further, by delaying elections, the SCAF is left in place, which increases the period of time during which Egypt is ruled by a military junta.


Meanwhile, in another ominous portent, Al Jazeera's Mubashr Misr channel has been shut down and new satellite channels will not be authorized. Without a free media, it is difficult to hold a free and fair election. Some analysts worry that this media crackdown is an effort to prevent coverage of vote-rigging and other anti-democratic practices.

Sources

http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/495780
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/495805
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/495770
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/484067

Fall back into politics

It appears that the SCAF plans to designate September 27, 2011 as the opening day for candidacy for the parliamentary election. Al Ahram reports that a law regulating electoral constituencies is likely to be announced as well, which will likely decrease the number of constituencies. Liberals and leftists dislike the law and have called for postponing elections, whereas the MBs and Salafis, as well as the Wafd, welcomed this news.

The lower house of parliament in Egypt is called the People's Assembly. According to Sarah Carr, writing in Al Masry Al Youm, Saad Eddin Ibrahim predicts that the Muslim Brotherhood will be the largest bloc in parliament, but will not have a majority.

There may be some large protests on September 9th calling for a civil state, an end to military trials, and protection of basic freedoms. The National Association for Change has called for a protest this Friday to rescue the Revolution. It calls for purging the police apparatus and ending thuggery, removing corrupt figures from government, ending military trials of civilians, and supporting judicial independence.

Mohammed El Baradei has called for a road map for the current transitional period of military rule in Egypt. Al Masry Al Youm reports that the Egyptian opposition is concerned about the Interim Constitution. The SCAF believes that it ensures a smooth transfer of power. The opposition things that it is not a sufficient guarantee for a handover of power to a civilian government, because it does not specify dates for elections.  I tend to side with the opposition, because the SCAF rules by decree, and sets dates as it suits them.

Blogger Mikel Nabil Sanad has been imprisoned for "insulting the armed forces" since April. Reporters Without Borders have called for his release.