Confusion after court rulings in Egypt

Last night I was meeting with a friend who is active in a major secular party in Egypt. There was some confusion about the future of the party. Yesterday's court ruling invalidated all the seats won by independents in parliament: approximately 1/3 of the seats. As a result, the parliament is effectively disbanded, because there are not enough people in parliament to hold sessions.

Hundreds in Tahrir Protest against Supreme Court rulings.

I cannot verify this, but my friend said that even if Shafiq wins, if the Parliament is disbanded, there will be no one to swear him in. Therefore, whoever wins the presidential election may not actually be in power until the parliament is reconstituted.

Egypt's high court calls for dissolution of Parliament.

I was at the Marriot in Zamalek for a lecture on "The Arab Awakening: One Year On." The lecture was held by the AUC. After the lecture, I spoke with my friend on the outdoor patio, so that he could smoke a cigarette. Who did we run into but Amr Hamzawy, my former colleague at the PPAD. He was with his beautiful wife, Basma. He looked a little stressed, because he is one of the independents who have now lost their seats. But, he was optimistic.

Blow to Transition as Court invalidates Parliament.

Many at the conference I attended last night, referred to the events as a "coup." Further, my friend suggested that the courts are not independent, and are actually controlled by the SCAF. Indeed, the courts have been operating with little or no reform since the Revolution.

Parliament's Dissolution Could Postpone Presidential Election.

Ironically, I had a girl's lunch at one thirty, and one of my colleagues who works at the UNDP told us that one third of parliament would be dismissed, and that Shafiq would be allowed to run. By two thirty, her predictions were confirmed. 

Names of women in Egyptian parliament

Dear readers

My beloved graduate student Heba Galal has gotten me the names of women in parliament.

You can find all the names of candidates in Shorouk News but in Arabic,

 

Here is the website  :-

http://shorouknews.com/news/view.aspx?id=964be8e0-2cc9-42d3-bd48-926467373c67

Here are the names of the candidates of women in the parliament:-

Lists (332 seats)

1. Margret Azer  (Al-Wafd /workers)

Second district of Cairo Nasr city

2. Sana Ahmed Mohamed Gamal El-Din (workers / Egyptian Social Democratic Party)

Second district of Assuit “Al Fateh”

3. Hanan Saad  Aboul Gheit Hassan (workers / Al-Wafd) 

Damietta Governorate

4. Azza Mohamed Ibrahim El Gerf (farmer/Freedom and Justice) 

Second district of Giza (Bulaq)

5. Magda Hassan Alnuichi (workers / Al Wafd)

Ismailia Governorate

6. Huda Muhammad Anwar Abdul Rahman Ghania(Categories / Freedom and Justice) 

Second district of Qaliubiya ”Shubra Al Khaimah”

Individuals (166 seats)

7. Nehad  Al-Qasim Syed Abdul Wahab Khudair (categories / Freedom and Justice) 

Benisuef Governorate

10 candidates are being recruited by SCAF in the parliament-- among them 2 women

8. Suzey Adley Nashed

9. Brian Malak Kamal

Recap of Election News for Egypt, February 1, 2012

Dear readers

The Egyptian election has a lot of moving parts. Accordingly, it has been a little bit hard to keep track of it all. To date, I have written 29 separate posts on the Egyptian elections.

So, what do we know?

Women 

One thing that I think is very interesting is how few women there are in the Egyptian Parliament. According to the best information I have, there are only 8 (eight) women in the Parliament so far. I assume that most of these women are from the Freedom and Justice Party or the Wafd, but I am trying to get names and specifics on this topic. Here is a good article on the same.

Ibtisam Barakat, Welcome to the New Egyptian Parliament, Jaadaliya,

In some of my previous posts, I had commented on which parties may or may not represent women. The lesson the liberal parties learned (I hope) is that if they really want a diverse party, they need to move minorities closer to the top of the list. It is my educated opinion [which does not make it a fact] that people actually voted for PARTIES, not individuals for the most part in this election. Here are some of my musings on the matter.

Which Egyptian Parties Represent Women?

No women elected to Egypt's parliament in first round

The Elections Aren't Over

Like the Egyptian Revolution, the Egyptian elections just go on, and on, and on, like the Energizer Bunny. The elections for the Egyptian parliament's lower house (People's Assembly) are not even over yet.

There are 498 possible seats. Only 427 have been decided. There are 71 seats remaining. As many as 45 seats will be determined by runoffs. They were supposed to have been held on January 10th, but I will have to look into that.

Shura Council Elections are (were) to be held on January 29th, February 14th, and March 4th in the same sequence as the PA elections were.

The date of the Presidential election has not been decided.

I was Wrong, but not far Wrong

Okay, how did I do on my election predictions?

Well, I predicted the FJP--the political wing of the MB--would win 30%. That was not correct. The FJP has to date won about 45.2%. So I was off by 15%. I predicted El Adl would win 15%. Oops! They only won less than 1%. I predicted that Revolution Continues would win 15%. I was very wrong there. They only won 2.34%. I predicted that the Egyptian Bloc would win 15%. They actually won 7.03%. So, I was wrong, but not crazy on that one. I totally missed the Salafi issue. Some of these errors are due to having lived in Cairo, and teaching at AUC, which is comparatively liberal and secular. Well, now we know.

More soon!~WMB

Considering the Talk of the Nation

Dear readers

I saw this story on NPR.   One Year Later, Arab Spring Still Reverberating    

I like Lourdes Garcia-Navarro, but it felt like she phoned this one in a little bit. It is so hard to do flyby journalism and get it right.

For example, the Muslim Brotherhood did not win a "crushing victory." 45% is not a crushing victory. The Freedom and Justice Party was conservatively expected to get 30% of the vote. They exceeded expectations by 15%.

The lesson here, I think, is that suppressing, or attempting to quash extremist groups is a mistake. This oppression of the MB, which began under Nasser, allowed the group over 50 years to organize and strategy. It is not a surprise that their well oiled machine performed against brand new parties that were formed in March. The new government should take note and allow parties of all brands and stripes, no matter how distasteful, to organize and run.

As my colleague Hamid Ali and I said in a recent editorial in the Daily News Egypt,  A Return to Common Sense Politics the more surprising fact, really is that these brand new parties have done as well as they said. Taken together, as I have mentioned in previous posts, moderate and secular parties won 25% of the vote. That is impressive. Of course, Al Wafd, which I place in the moderate category, was part of the loyal opposition under Mubarak. I was surprised Al Adl did so poorly. I was also surprised that the RCA refused to join the Egyptian Bloc coalition. That is a mistake by the secularists, in my view. In unity, there is strength.

The real test will come when parliament starts operating. There are two crucial issues in my view. The first issue is 1) can the parliament act as an effective check on the executive? and 2) Will parties like the FJP and Al Nour be able to deliver on a platform? Winning is one thing. Delivering is another.

~WMB

Overview of People's Assembly Results, Round 3

Dear readers

This is a report on parties I care about, mainly secular and liberal. The rest of the news will keep you apprised of the Islamists, right? 

• FJP holds 45.20% of seats, Al Nour, 25.20% of seats. Therefore together the Islamists hold about 70% of the seats in the lower house.
• Al Wafd with 9% of seats, Egyptian Bloc with 7% of seats, RDP coming from behind with nearly 3% of seats beating out Revolution Continues (the bad boys of the left) with 2.34% of seats. The moderate Islamists Al Wasat with 2 percent. So according to my calculations, liberals and moderates currently hold about 23% of seats, which is not bad at all if they vote as a bloc.

427 of 498 seats in Egypt's lower house of Parliament, the People's Assembly, have been determined.

As many as 71 Seats remain. 45 seats will be determined from runnoffs from round 3. 14 list based seats are subject to a re-vote in Aswan district 1 and Cairo district 1. 12 seats need a re-vote for individual candidacies in Cairo district 1, Alexandria's district 3, Assiut districts 2 and 3, and Sharqiya districts 2 and 5. Runoffs will be conducted on January 10th and 11th.

Revolution Continues did surprisingly well in Daqhaliyya with 12% of votes, winning one seat on list one and one seat on list 2, and one seat on list 3. Three seats total were one by the RCA. Egyptian Bloc trailed with 2.62% of the vote, winning no seats.

In Gharbiya, Egyptian Bloc won a total of 2 seats. Al Wafd won 4 Seats. 

In Minya, unfortunately, NDP remnants getting some play with 1 Seat going to the Freedom party. Al Wasat wins 1 seat, Egyptian Bloc wins 2 Seat, and the old school opposition, Al Wafd, carries 1 seat, as does the moderate Islamist Al Wasat.

In Qalioubiya, Al Wafd with 2 Seats, Egyptian Bloc with 1.

In Qena, Al Wafd with 1, and extremely confusingly, the SDP which is part of the Egyptian Bloc, with 1 seat. Three seats go to (bad) NDP cover parties.

Marsa Matruh, nothing for secular or moderate parties. In New Valley, the Nasserists make a showing with 1 seat! The RDP with 1 seat in North Sinai. I need to look into this group, but I believe they are affiliated with Sadat's son. South Sinai, Wafd, and RDP in the house.

More thoughts soon. ~WMB

Status of women representatives in second round

Dear readers

When I started this project of tracking what parties were running what women, I did not think it would be that useful. I felt like I was spinning my wheels and wasting time to satisfy my own personal curiosity. Several hours in, I just could not stop myself.  But now, the hard work is paying off. See my post here Which Egyptian Parties Represent Women?

My amazing research assistant Heba Galal and I have translated the electoral lists of various parties, which allows us to evaluate the chances that women will be elected. Our first cut was to see which parties had women in the top half of their lists. i.e. if they are running 8 people on the list, do they women in slots 1-4. If they are running 12 people on the list, do they have women in slots 1-6, and so forth.  A second cut is to see how many women total the parties are running. That may tell you something about the overall attitude of women in the party.

No women have been elected from the single winner system. I repeat, not one single woman has won as an independent.

In a counterintuitive result, there may be some women from the lists, and they are almost absolutely certain to be from the Muslim Brotherhood affiliated Freedom and Justice party. The FJP did so well in these elections, that in many locations, they got down to number 4 on their list, which means some women will be elected. It is also possible that women could be elected from Al Wafd. Their lists are not in good shape though, which makes it very difficult to analyze them, but I will try.

Recap:

The People's Assembly Elections are being run in the following order.

Stage 1:Cairo, Fayoum, Port Said, Damietta, Alexandria, Kafr el-Sheikh, Assiut, Luxor, Red Sea
Stage 2:Giza, Beni Suef, Menoufiya, Sharqiya, Ismailia, Suez, Beheira, Sohag, Aswan
Stage 3:Minya, Qalubiya, Gharbiya, Dakhaliya, North Sinai, South Sinai, Marsa Matruh, Qena, New Valley

• El Adl seems to have a fairly high number of women on their lists, in my opinion. They are running 24 women out of 13 lists. As many as 8 women are near the top of the lists.
• The Muslim Brotherhood seems to have slightly more than the bare minimum of women on their lists. They are running 38 women out of 37 lists analyzed. Two women are near top of the lists. (9 lists still need to be analyzed.)
• It is rumored that some of the women on Al Nour's list are fakes, and are just the mothers or the sisters of party members, to meet the legal requirement. All women on the Al Nour list are on the bottom two slots.
• The Egyptian Bloc: On 42 lists, they have 43 women. 9 women are at the top of their lists.
• The published lists by Al Wafd are not in good shape. Accordingly, we are still analyzing them as quickly as possible. Women from Al Wafd might make it if they are ranked 1 or 2.

Here is a preliminary analysis of where women have a chance. A more fine grained analysis will follow.

FJP
(using information from their official website)
People's Assembly

6. Giza, the second list. One woman, Azza Mohamed Ibrahim Elgref, Rank 4 out of 10 candidates.
The FJP won 4 Seats on Giza list 2.
11. Dakhalia, the initial list. One woman, Siham Abdel-Latif Jamal, Rank 2 out of 8.
24. Qalubiya, the initial list, one woman, Huda Abdullah Abul Qadr, rank 4 out of 4.
25. Qalubiya, the second list, one woman, Hoda Abdel-Rahman Mohammed Anwar, Rank 3 out of 8.
27. New Valley, one woman, Mervat Said Abdo, Rank 4 out of 4.
30. South Sinai, one woman, Amira Abdel Hamid Taha, rank 4 out of 4.
31. Damietta, two women, Fakry Adham Abdel Razak, Etmaad Mohamed Zagloul, rank 3 and 5 out of 8.FJP won 3 seats on the first Damietta list.
34. North Sinai, one woman, Inas Mustafa Hamdan, rank 4 of 4.
35. Qena, one woman, Suhair Badri, rank 4 of 4.


Al Wafd 
(using information from http://elections.masreat.com)
People's Assembly

1. Aswan, Waheda Shakely, ranked 1 out of 12, (this list seems flawed because it has more than 12 people on it.)
2. Giza, Maha Ahmed Omar Kashif, ranked 1 out of 12 (again, this list seems flawed because it has too many people on it)
3. Cairo, Wasaf Ali Ali, ranked 1 out of 12. (flawed list)
4. Helwan, Sherin Mohammad Hatata, ranked  2 out of 12 (flawed list)
5. Red Sea Governorate, Aza Abd El Fattah Ahmed 1 out of 12. (5 women total on this list)

Overview of Egyptian Elections after Stage 2 December 28

Dear readers

Data from Jadaliyya. I have reorganized and done some basic analysis.

322 Seats Total have been elected so far.

Islamist parties
FJP=47.20%              152 Seats
Al Nour=24.22%         78 Seats

Secular and Liberal Parties
Al Wafd=7.76%           25 Seats
Eg. Bloc=7.45%           24 Seats
Rev. Cont.=2.17%          7 Seats
Al Adl=0.62%                2 Seats

Moderate Parties
Al Wasat=2.17%           7 Seats
RDP=2.17%                  7 Seats

Former NDP
Eg. Citizen=1.24%          4 Seats
National of Eg.=1.24%    4 Seats
Freedom Party=0.31%     1 Seat

Various Independents
New Independents           1 Seat                             
Arab Eg. Union               1 Seat
Union                              1 Seat
Independents                   8 Seats

Big Brush Stroke Overview of Egypt Election Results Round 2

FJP election poster in Luxor. Photo by the author.

 
If you want detailed election results, click here Jaadaliya Election Results .

Here is the big picture.

Aswan, [6 Seats] the usual. FJP 2 seats, Al Nour 1 Seat, Egyptian Bloc, 1 seat. Single winner runoff between FJP, Wafd, and Al Nour.
Sohag, [30 Seats]  FJP,  Al Nour, Egyptian Bloc and Nasserites. District 2 list postponed due to irregularities.
Beheira, [30 Seats]  FJP with 60 % of the votes, Al Nour 25 %, trailed by Al Wafd and Egyptian Bloc.
Suez, [6 Seats] Al Nour with more than 50% of the votes (2 seats), FJP with 25% (1 Seat), and Egyptian Bloc with 15 % (1 Seat).
Ismailia, [6 Seats] FJP 2 Seats, Al Nour 2 Seats. The Islamists dominated the vote.
Sharqiya, [30 Seats] FJP 40% of vote, Al Nour 25% of vote, Al Wafd 13 % of the vote, and Egyptian Bloc, 10% of the vote, Revolution Continues 4% of vote.
Menoufia [24 Seats] One list vote postponed due to irregularities. FJP, Al Wafd, Al Nour.
Beni Suef [18 Seats] FJP, Al Nour, Al Wafd, Revolution Continues, in that order.
Giza [30 Seats] FJP, Al Nour, Egyptian Bloc, Al Wafd and Revolution Continues Alliance, in that order. 

Egypt Elections Update, Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Egyptian campaign posters in Luxor in November. Photo by the author.

If you are looking for comprehensive election results, check here.  Jaadaliya Election Results

http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/3331/egyptian-elections_preliminary-results_updated-

Here are some choice selections from their pages. I added some description of the parties on the bottom chart.


Seat Breakdown (as of Sunday 4 December*)

Party/Coalition	Party-list Seats	Single-Winner Seats	Total
Freedom and Justice**	40	2	42 (40%)
Al-Nour***	26	0	26 (25%)
Egyptian Bloc	13	0	13 (12%)
Al-Wafd	10	0	10 (9%)
Revolution Continues	4	1	5 (4%)
Al-Wasat	4	0	4 (3%)
Reform and Development	2	0	2
National Party of Egypt	1	0	1
Egyptian Citizen	1	0	1
Freedom	1	0	1
Independents	-	1	1
Total	102	4	106
Seats Remaining	230	162	392

                                                                                      

*   Includes all but Cairo's party-list district #1 (Al-Sahel voters are scheduled to re-vote on January 10-11).

** Freedom and Justice list includes candidates from the parties of the "Democratic Alliance for Egypt"

*** Al-Nour's list includes candidates from the parties of the "Islamist Bloc"


Nationwide Vote for Party Coalition Lists (as of December 14th)

Party/Coalition List	Votes	% Votes
Freedom and Justice* (Islamist/right)	3565092	36.62321885
Al-Nour** (Islamist/far right)	2371713	24.3639615
Egyptian Bloc (liberal/left)	1299819	13.35268647
Al-Wafd (old school liberal)	690077	7.088973018
Al-Wasat (Islamist/moderate)	415590	4.269242848
Revolution Continues (left)	335947	3.451092006
Reform and Development (no idea!?)	185138	1.901872235
National Party of Egypt (NDP)	153429	1.576134317
Freedom (NDP)	136784	1.405144767
Adl (liberal/3rd way)	76769	0.788627022

Egypt elections beyond ideology: A return to common sense politics

 

Egypt elections beyond ideology: A return to common sense politics

By   Hamid Eltgani Ali and Warigia Bowman December 13, 2011, 5:00 pm

The first round of Egyptian parliamentary elections is drawing to a close, but in another sense, Egyptian multi-party politics is just beginning. After a partially successful revolution, Egypt is now on a crash course to multi-party democracy. Other countries that have gone through major political transitions from dictatorship to democracy generally have had decades to make the transition. The question many Western observers are asking now is what shape will Egypt’s nascent democracy take? Will it more closely resemble the secular Turkey, or the more theocratic Iran?  As news reports have indicated, the results of the first round of elections have been discouraging for those who support a secular state in Egypt. Based on our quantitative analysis of publicly available ex post election data after the first round of voting, the Islamists performed exceptionally well in comparatively rural areas with low political capital such as Fayoum and Luxor. By contrast, liberal and moderate parties, taken altogether, won only 27 percent of total votes and performed relatively well in highly urbanized areas of high political capital like Cairo, Alexandria and Port Said. Liberal candidates are likely to do worse in the second and third rounds of voting which will be held in parts of rural Egypt that are likely to be less progressive and politically sophisticated than Cairo, the Red Sea and The Delta. Given results in the first round of the Egyptian elections, what lessons can be learned? Given what we  have seen in the first round of the Egyptian elections,  what lessons can be learned? First of all, liberal parties made a serious miscalculation by running numerous separate lists. Many of the parties in the Revolution Continues Alliance (RCA) withdrew from the Bloc allegedly due to inter-party conflicts. The only liberal party that has done well in the elections has been The Egyptian Bloc, which has captured 14 percent of the available seats thus far. Liberal parties are doing even worse under the single-winner system. In the first round of runoffs, 47 of the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidates (Freedom and Justice Party) made it to the runoffs. The far right Islamist party Al Nour has secured 27 candidates in the first round of runoffs. By contrast, the Egyptian Bloc only had 9 candidates in runoffs. The liberal and moderate parties need to resolve their differences and work as a unit to gain any seats. The second lesson to be learned is that Egyptians have not yet embraced an ideological approach to politics. The conservative right and liberal left categories which categorize Europe simply do not apply well here, accordingly labels and ideologies are not useful campaign tools. Rather, parties can more easily be divided along a crucial axis: support for a secular state, or support for a religious (Islamic) state. The second lesson to be learned here, then, all parties must figure out what matters to them and campaign on issues,  like how they will reduce unemployement, not ideologies. The Egyptian people do not know what “social justice,” means yet. But they do know what a hungry stomach feels like.

Low turnout in Egyptian election and other news

Egyptian Expatriate expresses enthusiasm about the Revolution. Photo Credit, Al Masry.

Dear readers,

So not many voters turned out for the runoff on Monday. I heard this from my student who worked for the UN in elections, as well as the news. This is either going to be great news for the Egyptian Bloc, or terrific news for the Salafis. Unfortunately, a lot of runoffs were between FJP and salafis, so I hope people had the sense to vote FJP. The devil you know. . . .

Basically, a lot of people did not really understand that they had to vote again to finalize their decision. Many people said they "had done their part."

I was relieved and thrilled that my Arabic teacher voted for Kotla, (the Egyptian Bloc) but she lives in upmarket Heliopolis, so that is to be expected. She also voted for Amr Hamzawy. He is my colleague here in public policy. We hope he will teach again next semester.

The apparently incompetent Egyptian Higher Elections Commission noted that "it had made a mathematical error" when it estimated turnout at 62% a few days ago. It appears turnout is closer to 52%, according to Abdel Moez Ibrahim, head of the election body.

It appears that God, is in fact, merciful, because the Salafis, whom I am sure Mohammed (Peace Be Upon Him) would not approve of, "will not accept living in the shadow of the Freedom and Justice Party" ("Head of Salafist Al Nour Party Rules Out Alliance with Muslim Brotherhood," Ahram Online, December 6, 2011) Yet, they may be willing to form a wider coalition.

I am also praying to Allah/Yehova/God that the votes of the Egyptian expatriates help a bit. According to Al Masry Al Youm, "Fifty Egyptian embassies abroad sent vote counts from the run-off elections to the Foreign Ministry, ministry spokesperson Amr Roshdy said Tuesday."

No women elected to Egypt's parliament in first round

Woman voting in Egypt. Photo credit Carnegie Endowment.

Crowd in Tahrir Friday, December 2. Note veiled woman in jeans in foreground. Photo credit, the author.

Dear readers

No women have been elected from the lists in Egypt's first round of elections. In addition, absolutely no women made it into runoffs from the single winner component of the election in the first round.

I spoke with high ranking women activists in Egypt. Many said that the most important consideration was not gender, but the electability of the candidates. This makes a lot of sense in the single-winner portion of the elections, but I am wondering if this argument makes as much sense for the list portion of the election.

It appears people voted based on what they felt the electoral blocks, or parties represented. They did not vote so much based on the individual candidate. This position of mine appears to be strengthened by the fact that people's preferences in the single-winner portion of the election closely tracked their behavior in the list section.

I find the absence of women in the first round particularly distressing for two reasons. First, women are at least 50% of the Egyptian population. Second, there is a concern that some parties that have recently been elected do not believe that women have the right to hold complex or high profile jobs.

The secular political parties need to rethink their strategy on getting women elected. In particular, it appears that if secular parties want women to get elected, they need to place them in slots 1 or 2 in selected districts where the party is expected to do well.  ~WMB

Good article on women in parliament

Check out this great article. in Jaadaliya


Women Turn Out in High Numbers, yet their share in parliament likely to be slim.

Then read my post.

Which Egyptian Parties Represent Women?

Cheers, WMB

The Glass is One Third Full

Dear Readers

Well, the FJP (aka Muslim Brotherhood) was expected to win big, so no surprise there. However, the Al Nour is a big surprise, and frankly, a shock.

However, I am very happy that the Egyptian Bloc, which consists of Free Egyptians, the Social Democratic Party and Tagamoo looks like it is doing well. I spoke to a top party member at Groppi cafe yesterday, and he tells me that he is getting an outpouring of support for the remaining two areas where elections have not yet been held. At least there will be some, significant liberal and secular representation in parliament.

Those radicals and leftists who urged people not to vote made a big tactical error. In addition, it would seem that in the next set of elections, all liberal and secular parties would be well advised to work in one bloc, and unite forces.

As I tell my students, democracy is an iterative process. We need to prepare to do better next time.

~WMB

Very preliminary Election Outcomes

Updated December 6, 10:54 a.m.

This post will summarize election outcomes in an easy to read format. The best way to find up the minute info on this is to look here. Jaadaliya Election Results . 

The value added of looking here is that I just give you the bare facts. It is a bit easier to read.

According to Jaadaliya, "Exit polls and preliminary vote count show that the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists are expected to finish first and second in the first phase with the liberal Egyptian Bloc a distant third."

Votes will supposedly be announced tonight, although they said that yesterday too. Worried laughter . . .

• No official results as of Sunday, results and percentages are still trickling in . . . .
• Also, apparently (as of Sunday December 4, 2011) there is some confusion with what to do when the extra votes. i.e. how will the seats be allocated for parties who make the cutoff, but get few votes.
• As of Tuesday December 6, 2011, there was very low turnout for the runoffs last night. One of my students works for the UN observation team and she noted this.
• This cool chart was published by the Arabist on Saturday. It may no longer be up to date, but gives some preliminary visuals. Chart for Round One of the Elections

My latest information is that no woman has been elected in the first round.

I will get results up as fast as I can. Lists are completed, still working on single winners. All results are not final. Runoffs for first leg of single-winner tomorrow. (Monday, December 5)


Cairo (54 seats) 

Cairo List 1 (10 Seats) 
FJP (39%)=4 Seats

Egyptian Bloc(23.5%)=3 Seats
Al Nour (5.36%)=1seat 
Al Wafd (6.23%)=1 seat

Cairo List 2 (8 Seats)
FJP(35.65%)=3
Egyptian Bloc(26.22%)=2
Al Nour(11.1%)=1
Al Wafd(7.22%)=1
Al Wasat(5.76%)=1


Cairo List 3 (Qasr al Nil)(8 Seats)
FJP(39%)=3
Egyptian Bloc(18.33%)=2
Wafd(14.67%)=1
Nour(14.52%)=1
RCA(3.45%)=1


Cairo List 4 (Helwan)(10 Seats)
FJP(40.48%)=4
Nour(19.35%)=2
Egyptian Bloc(13.14%)=1
Al Wafd(7.32%)=1
Revolution Continue(3.62%)=1
Al Wasat(3.39%)=1

 
Cairo Single Winner Seats. 

#1 : Egyptian Bloc vs. FJP
#2 : FJP vs. Egyptian Block (Yeah!)
#3 : FJP vs. El Adl, Al Nour (wow!) or Independent.
#4:  Heliopolis: Amr Hamzawy with 53% of the vote (Mabruk!) Former NDP vs. FJP (wow! Scary) 
#5: FJP vs. Al Nour (Yikes!)
#6:  FJP vs. Egyptian Bloc, Gamila Ismail did not make it.
#7:  FJP vs. Al Nour or former NDP. (Sigh)
#8: FJP vs.FJP.
#9:  Mostafa Bakry wins, Independent. Ramadan Omar wins, FJP.

Alexandria (24 Seats) 

Alexandria List #1 (6 Seats) 


FJP (34.41%)=2
Al Nour (29.85%)=2
Egyptian Bloc (16.02%)=1
Wafd (6.40%)=1




Alexandria List #2(10 Seats)

FJP (35.32%)=4
Al Nour (32.96%)=3
Revolution Continues (10%)=1
Egyptian Bloc  (6.15%)=1
Al Wafd(5.55%)=1


Alexandria single winner Seats
working on this . . . .





Damietta (12 seats) 


Damietta List
FJP
Al Nour
Al Wasat

Kafr Al Sheikh (18 Seats)

FJP (31%)
Al Nour (22%)
Al Wafd (15%)
Union
National Party  (NDP)
Democratic Front
Freedom Party (NDP)
Egyptian Citizen (NDP)


Fayoum (18 Seats) 
Fayoum List 1
FJP
Al Nour
Freedom Party(NDP)
Revolution Continues


Fayoum List 2
FJP(2Seats)
Al Nour (near tie) (2 Seats)
Egyptian Bloc (no seats)


Port Said (6 Seats) 
Port Said List 
FJP=32% (2 Seats)
Al Nour=20% (1 Seat)
Al Wafd=14%
Al Wasat=13%


Red Sea (6 Seats)
Red Sea List 
FJP=35% (2 Seats)
Egyptian Bloc=17% (One Seat)
Egyptian Citizen (NDP)= 14% (One Seat)
Al Wafd=10%
Freedom Party (NDP)=8%
Al Wasat=6%
Revolution Continues=4%

Assiut (24 Seats)
Assiut List 1
FJP=44%
Al Nour=23%
Egyptian Bloc=22%
Wafd
Nasserist
Peace
Wasat



Assiut List 2
FJP > 40%
Al Nour
Egyptian Bloc



Luxor(6 seats)
Luxor List 
FJP=40%
Al Nour
Egyptian Bloc
Al Wafd


Luxor Single Winner (Runoff)

1.Independent
2.FJP/NDP
3.FJP

Egypt Election Q and A

Here are some good resources on the Egyptian election

Carnegie Endowment Electing a New Egypt.

Arabist Egyptian Election Page

Al Jazeera Infographic on Egyptian Elections 

New York Times Revolution and Aftermath

Here is a review of the basics:

There are 27 Governorates in Egypt. Egypt has a population of 80 million. 50 million persons are eligible to vote. Expatriates in possession of an Egyptian passport can vote at their local consulate.

The People's Assembly elections will be held on November 28th-29th (Kafr El Sheikh, Port Said, Damietta, Cairo, Helwan, Alexandria) December 14, 2011, (Beni Suef, Giza, Ismailiya, Beheira, Suez, Sohag Qena, Luxor, Aswan, Sharqiya, Menoufiya) and finally January 3, 2012 (Marsa Matrouh, Minya. New Valley, North Sinai, South Sinai). Full results for the lower house will likely be announced after January.

The Shura Council elections will be held on January 29th, February 14th, and March 4th in the same sequence.

The date of the Presidential election has not yet been decided.

The election is a mixture of a closed list system (2/3), and a first past the post single winner system (1/3). Here is my explanation of that system. The Book of Lists

I have just updated my list of which parties are running women in large numbers or high positions. Please take a look. Which Egyptian parties represent women?

Furthermore, each list must contain individuals certified as either "workers" or "farmers," a holdover from the Nasserist era.

Here is my discussion of blocs. Egyptian political blocs

Predictions: I predict (Just a hunch. Just a gamble)

• Muslim Brotherhood will win 30%  of the seats in the People's Assembly. 
• El Adl will also be a big winner, taking about 15% of seats.
• I expect all Copts and many Muslim liberals and leftists to vote for the Egyptian Bloc, or the Revolution Continues Bloc. Those groups should win about 15% each. 
• The remaining seats will be divided between Al Nour, Wasat, El Wafd, and a variety of other parties and individuals.

Day one of Egyptian election peaceful

Egyptian woman voting. Photo credit Al Masry Al Youm.

The first day of the election has gone by smoothly.

Here are some impressionistic reactions from friends and acquaintances.

A young lady at the busstop who voted at Tagamoo (near El Rehab in New Cairo) said she waited in line for five hours. She got in line at 7 a.m., but the polls did not open until 11:30. She mentioned that men and women voted in different schools. She said by the end of the time period, people started to argue. She was in a school where only women were voting, but they started to argue. She said there was heavy security provided by the military, the police, as well as lagaan shabaaya.

One of the administrative assistants to the law department at AUC said she voted in Nasr City. She also waited in line for hours. She said there was no bathroom. She said that the polls opened late, and that people started to argue because some young people cut in line towards the end.

One of my graduate students voted in downtown, near Tahrir. She said it was very safe, and there was a lot of security provided by the military police. She said voting went quickly and easily.

The parliamentary election continues today. 

~WMB

Just how bad is it?

Nobody really knows how bad the political situation in Egypt is. The last report I heard was that 35 people had been killed in Tahrir, and over 1000 injured seriously.

The AUC campus at Tahrir is closed. There have been reports that the library was burned. Hill house, the bookstore and the science building have broken glass.

The UNDP offices downtown are closed and people are working from home.

One AUC student Ahmed Abdel Rahim, was arrested in Tahrir Square yesterday. He is being detailed at the Kasr El Aini police station. AUC is trying to get him released and keep him safe.

As many as 4000 protesters are in Tahrir. They are not all Islamists. One of my students from my essentials of public policy class is there. Thirty Seven (37) revolutionary groups have demanded the resignation of Essam Sherif's government and the transfer of power to an elected civilian government by May 2012.

What seats are Egyptian political blocs running for?

There are 46 electoral districts for party based lists in Egypt.  There are 83 districts covered by the individual single-winner electoral system.
 
There are four main electoral blocs, which span the political spectrum. Although Egypt does have a left, I believe it is inaccurate, in my view, to say it has a "right," as that concept is understood in Europe. It has a secular side and a more fundamentalist religious side.

Left/Liberal

Egyptian Bloc: Free Egyptians (Free Enterprise), Egyptian Social Democratic Party, Tagmmu Party (old school leftist)
The Revolution Continues: Socialist Popular Alliance Party, Egyptian Socialist Party, Egypt Freedom (Amr Hamzawy), Equality and Development, Egyptian Current, Revolution Youth Coalition

Right/Religious

Democratic Alliance: (12 parties) Muslim Brotherhood, Ghad Party, Al-Karama (Nasserist)
Islamist Alliance: Nour Party (Salafis), Asala, the Salafist Current, the Construction and Development Party (Al-Jamaa Al-Islamiya)
  
What seats are the blocs running for? 

Given that there are 46 party list districts, if a party is running in more districts than this, it means they are running individual candidates. 

The Egyptian Bloc will run 233 candidates in unified electoral lists, to contest seats in 64 electoral districts. 10 % Tagammu, 40% SDP, 50 % Free Egyptians.


The Revolution Continues will field 300 candidates in 34 electoral districts. 250 candidates will run on unified electoral lists, and 34 for the people's assembly will run on independent seats, and 26 for the Shura Council will run independently.

The Democratic Alliance  (Islamists) will field 498 candidates and is competing in all electoral districts around the country.The Democratic Alliance will be running on unified lists in all electoral districts across the countries. Seats will be divided based on the relative political weight of each party, and how much it contributes to the success of the overall list. FJP candidates make up 70 percents of the slots on the unified lists for the democratic alliance. FJP candidates make up 90 percent of the candidates for the independent seats. 

The Wafd Party has fielded 332 list-based candidates in 46 electoral constituencies, and 96 individual candidates in 83 constituencies for the upcoming elections.  Four former members of the NDP were nominated by the Wafd in the Red Sea, Qena, Minya and Sharqiya.

Wasat (Moderate Islamist/Brotherhood Offshoot) will field 402 candidates. 332 will be on party lists. 70 will run as independents.

Word on the street

Well, regarding the Egyptian elections, gossip and innuendo is rife. Here is what I am hearing. This is TOTALLY unscientific, but very interesting, nonetheless.

My daughter's daycare teacher thinks that it is a mistake to push the military out. She says that the military is the last institution standing in Egypt, and that it is a mistake to try to get rid of them. She believes there are outside forces encouraging the youth to battle the military. Perhaps these outside forces are from Qatar or Saudi Arabia in her view.

My research assistant is very brilliant and hardworking. Her family is going to vote Muslim Brotherhood (Freedom and Justice Party) because they are organized, and they do a lot of charity.

An extremely educated and experienced political activist and journalist warned that she is very worried about the potential for violence during the election.

AUC has decided to shut down the entire university for the first round of elections on November 28th for security reasons.

~WMB