Friday of Departure

Protests of "Friday of Departure" in Port Said, 8 February 2013, demanding toppling of Mohamed Morsy's regime.

Egypt was rocked today by "Friday of Departure" protests.  Train lines near Tahrir were blocked as protesters asked for Morsy's departure. The protests seemed to contain significant bitterness against the Muslim Brotherhood with slogans like "Brothers cannot be trusted." Today's protest demanded the ouster of Mohammed Morsy, and the formation of a National Salvation Government.

Meanwhile, the National Salvation Front states that it is not demanding the overthrow of President Morsy. Rather, they say they support peaceful protests, and clarify that they believe Morsy is elected, but is abusing his powers.


However, not all is well with Egypt's opposition. In a thoughtful editorial, Dina el-Khawaga, a Professor at the University of Cairo argues that the NSF has focused too much on installing a new type of political regime, and not enough on consolidating a revolutionary, social policy-driven agenda. A Crying Need for a New Opposition She also points out that by focusing on an anti-Brotherhood agenda, the opposition polarizes Egyptian society even further, and worsens existing societal divisions.

She states that the opposition

needs to develop a discourse that expresses the demands of broad, disenfranchised social groups, and stresses the need to restructure the political system to serve the aspirations of citizens with regard to dignity, freedom and equity.

Well said Doktora. 

There has been a surge of violence in the recent weeks, with dozens dead from police violence. According to Reuters, the US government condemned violence against protesters, as well as the numerous acts of sexual violence against women which have taken place over the past two weeks. At least 60 persons have been killed. Although the police are part of the upsurge in violence, so are civilians.

One of the most shocking episodes has been a video of a naked middle-aged man being beaten and dragged through the streets by police to their armored vehicle. Saber has alternately blamed protesters and the police for his beating. Egypt Police Beating: The Strange Case of Hamada Saber


Meanwhile, the Egyptian Pope has expressed concerns that the new Egyptian Constitution is discriminatory, and is worried Christians will continue to be treated as an oppressed minority. The Pope called for all laws to be based on the concepts of citizenship, not religion.

In news that may make gender activists happy, early in February, the Supreme Constitutional Court  upheld the criminality of female genital mutilation, and has determined that it violates article 2 of the1971 constitution, and is also inconsistent with the principles of Sharia. 


~WMB

A very bad version of the Egyptian Constitution and a very big protest

Sit In at Tahrir. Credit: Al Masry Al Youm

There is so much going on in Egypt it is next to impossible to keep track of it all. But wait, I have had this feeling before!!!

To make a long story short, the draft Egyptian constitution is almost as unpopular as Morsi's decree. Here is a collection of materials about the massive Friday protests and the constitution.

The Associated Press reports, Islamists approved the Constitutional draft "without the participation of liberal and Christian members, seeking to pre-empt a court ruling that could dissolve their panel with a rushed, marathon vote that further inflames the clash between the opposition and President Mohammed Morsi." On Morning Edition, "Critics say it's not just that the president is rushing through an imperfect document, but one that could be dangerous. For instance, the draft constitution has preserved broad powers for the president although it does stipulate four-year term limits. There is still little civilian oversight of the military. And perhaps the most controversial part is the slightly expanded role and influence of Islam, which gives clerics a consulting role on legislation. "For all the hope of change, observers say the document is quite similar to the 1971 constitution it's expected to replace." In Egypt, Draft of Constitution OK'd (NPR)

Al Ahram reports that The finalization of Egypt’s new constitution did not help to stop protests. Egypt's Political Opposition holds firm (Al Ahram) Although given a 2 month extension, the Constituent Assembly finished the draft in a marathon session that lasted more than 15 hours. “According to analysts, the move was intended to placate activists and anti-Muslim Brotherhood demonstrators angry at what they see as Morsi’s attempt to impose autocratic rule.” Once a draft constitution is approved via popular referendum, Morsi's decree will be cancelled and his legislative powers transferred to a newly-elected parliament. However, protests showed no sign of abating. Tahrir Square demonstrators, who are pushing for a 'no' vote in the upcoming referendum, believe the draft constitution neither fulfils the aspirations of Egyptians nor achieves revolutionary objectives.

"Egypt will not be forced to choose between a dictatorial declaration and a rushed constitution written by a fraction of Egyptian society… Egypt will not bow down to the will of a few," former presidential candidate Hamdeen Sabbahi. 

Protests had begun after Morsi's power decree on November 22nd, but the release of the poorly drafted constitution made things worse, not better. Egypt Constitution Protests (LA Times) Morsi continues to defend both his recent decree and the draft constitution, claiming that it is necessary to advance Egypt's political transition.  Human Rights Watch suggests that secular moderates in Egypt may approve the constitution because of the fear of a future full of uncertainty. 

Here are some of the more controversial articles of the constitution: Egypt Constitution Sparks Outrage (WSJ)

o   Article 2: Says that Islam is the religion of the state and that principles of Islamic Shariah are the primary source of legislation.

o   Article 11: The state has power to issue unspecified laws that regulate 'public morality, discipline and order.'

o   Article 150: President can call binding referendum on 'important matters related to the state's paramount interests.

o   Article 198: Military tribunals can try civilians for crimes 'that harm the armed forces.'

The Egypt Independent notes that

"Participants chanted against the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis. “Egypt for all Egyptians, not Brothers and Salafis,” they chanted, along with “Down with the supreme guide’s rule,” referring to the Brotherhood’s leader. Demonstrators call for canceling the new constitutional declaration, canceling the referendum on the current draft constitution, restructuring the Constituent Assembly to write a constitution that reflects the views of all Egyptians, and providing retribution for the martyrs of the revolution who have died since 25 January 2011. “Among the most prominent participants are the Free Egyptians, Strong Egypt, Egyptian Social Democratic, and Constitution parties, as well as the April 6 Youth Movement Democratic and Ahmed Maher fronts, the Coalition of Egypt’s Copts, the Popular Democratic Movement, the Maspero Youth Union, the Voice of Freedom Movement, the Free Front for Peaceful Change, the Coalition of the Lotus Revolution and the Revolutionary Youth Union.”"Thousands Converge on Tahrir (EI) 
 

Well, that is enough for today. 

~WMB

Waiting with Baited Breath for Egyptian Presidential Election Results

Photo Credit. Ahmed Al Masry. Thousands of protesters gather in Tahrir Square to participate in Friday of "Rejecting Coup d'etat", Cairo, 22 June 2012, against Constitutional Declaration supplement issued by SCAF.

Dear readers

For those of you in Egypt, I know nothing that you do not know. Everyone is wondering who the presidential victor will be, Morsy or Shafiq?

Breaking News: SCAF and MB may be in negotiations    (11:41 p.m., Friday, Cairo time)

I was at a conference on defense spending and its distortions of various world economies today. It was held at the AUC in Moataz Al Alfi hall. The entire day, we kept checking in with each other, "have you heard anything?"

I asked my boss, whom I think is very thoughtful in these matters. I said to her, "does it really matter if Egypt elects a president, given that Parliament has been dismissed?" She said that indeed, it matters deeply. People need to have a sense that the process will be carried through. Also, if Parliament is dismissed, the presidency would arguably be the democratic bulwark in the country.

I went to Maadi yesterday to see my good friend from the UNDP who is monitoring the elections.   She focused on the fact that Egypt is in a learning process regarding democracy. The highway from Downtown to New Cairo is completely plastered with giant billboards for both the Presidential candidates, right next to each other in many cases. This picture gives you a sense.

Photo credit Reuters. Morsy signs are in Red, Shafiq signs are blue.

If you would like a good background piece to catch up on the situation check out the Carnegie Endowment for International Piece.

The Egyptian Political System in Dissaray by Nathan J. Brown. 

People are worried that violence could break out if one side or the other disputes the results.

I love this photo published in the Egyptian Independent today. It shows a former pasha, with protesters sitting on his statue, Morsy posters plastered everywhere. There is the spire of a mosque on the left hand side, and a glimpse of the heart of high class Cairo, the Semiramis Intercontinental, directly opposite the US Embassy on the right hand side of the photo.

Photo Credit Virginie Nguyen, Egypt Independent.

For non-Egyptian readers, some selections from today's press.


Morsy Urges Fast Election Results

Shafiq Claims Victory in Egyptian Presidential Runoff

Egyptian Media warns of Massacre of the Century

Election's Political Context Flawed, Say Monitors. 

Mursi, Shafiq campaigns both claim victory in Egyptian presidential race


Hoping for the best, most democratic outcome. ~WMB

Parsing the Egyptian Presidential Election Results

Women stand in line to cast their vote in Alexandria. Photo Credit Al Jazeera.

An Egyptian woman looks at her ballot. Photo Credit, Al Jazeera.

  
Should Egyptians accept the election results?

This is a tough question. It is puzzling that Shafiq outpolled Morsy. There is no question that the Muslim Brotherhood has the best ground game in town. However, for Shafiq to have beaten the Brotherhood, that means that the entire NDP apparatus, i.e. Mubarak's old party, is alive and well. It makes one wonder if there were not behind the scenes election violations that could not be viewed by observers? Allegations of vote buying have been made.  Okay, shaking off my paranoia, here is an interesting analysis of why Shafiq did so well.

Apparently, the secularists and leftists and revolutionaries split their votes between Shabaahi and Fotouh. Of course, vote splitting was to be expected. That said, the top four candidates all polled close to 25%. Given how close the election was, it would have been reasonable to hold a four way runoff. The PEC is not winning any friends in this election. First, they allowed Shafiq to run, even though the parliament banned members of the Mubarak regime from running. There is no question that the PEC's main client was the SCAF.  Second, the decisions of the PEC cannot be appealed.

Many Egyptians are not happy about the outcome. Tahrir was packed today. Issandr El Imrani asks why Egyptians should accept these elections.  Former President Jimmy Carter says his monitors could not observe the whole election, because his mission only got access a week before the race. Overall, however, Carter stated that the results of the election were acceptable.

More worrying than who won, in my view, is the fact that no constitution is in place, and as former President Jimmy Carter pointed out, the Egyptians are electing a president whose powers have not yet been defined. Strange days indeed.

After major protests on Monday, Tahrir Square is calm again.

Runoffs for the presidential elections are slated for the 16th and 17th of June.

Egyptian Presidential Election, Protests, and the Politics of Drafting the New Constitution

An Egyptian girl street vendor displays dairy products for sale under electoral posters in Cairo, Egypt, Monday, April 23, 2012

(AP)

 

Well folks, it is a busy news day in Egypt!

There is a big protest in Tahrir. It was called by the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis. I like the concept, which is demanding a handover of power to civilians. I am less sanguine about the people who called it. The Free Front for Peaceful Change has refused to participate, saying the Islamists are hijacking the protests after abandoning the streets for months.

A Constituent Assembly to write Egypt's new constitution is being put together. A mediation committee has been established to end the impasse over the Assembly's make up, according to the Egypt Independent. So far, the parties in the mediation have agreed to grant 15 seats to the FJP ( Muslim Brotherhood) 7 seats to the Nour party (Salafis), and 4 to the Wafd party (center secular) out of the 40 seats to be occupied by political parties. If those numbers are correct, 26 seats have been chosen, leaving 14 to be filled by other political parties. It is not clear what algorithm has been used to date to fill the seats. A court ruling in March determined that the Constituent Assembly had to be reformed due to its lack of diversity. As someone outside this mediation, my concern is that it is not clear whether women, bedouins, Christians, leftists, secular persons, or new parties that are not Islamists are on this Assembly. There is a lot at stake here. If the new Egyptian Constitution is not well written, then it will be very difficult for Egypt to emerge into a full-fledged democracy. Check out an article that gives some insight into this process.

With regard to the Presidential election, the National Association for Change is attempting to agree on a single revolutionary candidate. Leftist lawyer, Khaled Ali is a human rights advocate who has been on the approved list of candidates. He has said he will waive his candidacy if a consensus candidate is chosen. The National Association for Change has stated that they support the following principals: the civilian democratic nature of the state, the guarantee of full citizenship rights without discrimination on the basis of religion, race or gender. The Association also said these ideas need to be included in the constitution. If the candidates fail to agree among themselves, a "committee of wise men" will be put together to make a binding choice, if the candidates fail to agree. On the gender equality piece, I hope a woman is on the committee.

With regard to the Mubarak approved choice of presidential candidates, Ahmed Shafiq, Hosni Mubarka's last prime minister , says he has the military and political experience to lead Egypt into a new democratic era. Huuhhh? I thought you were with the guy we fired last January 25th, Ahmed? He was disqualified by the Political Isolation Law, which banned former Mubarak officials, then 48 hours later, the Presidential Election Commission reinstated him. Shafiq has close military ties, and is certainly someone the SCAF (the ruling military junta) knows well, and would be comfortable with.

Merry Christmas, Cairo

 

Dear readers

I hope that everyone is enjoying the holidays in their own fashion. I spent the morning and lunch with Bahai and Muslim friends and their children in my apartment in Rehab City in Cairo. We then spent the late afternoon with Christian friends in Maadi, Cairo. My friends in Maadi had a beautiful Christmas tree decorated with bells, and ornaments and lights.  It was really nice to get together around food, with minimal presents, and just a lot of nice people and holiday cheer.

The protest for women's rights in Tahrir on Friday the 23rd of December was quite successful. At least 4000 people attended. No one was killed, and no one was injured. Sarah Carr reports that people chanted "The women of Egypt are a red line."

Jaadaliya reports that prominent blogger Alaa Ebd Al Fattah was released from prison on Christmas. During his time in custody, his first child Khaled was born. All defendants in the Maspero case have been released this month. That is an excellent present of free speech for Christmas. I also heard this news from my medical doctor, whom I visited this morning, because my son was sick.

I asked my doctor how his Christmas was. He told me that he and his family did his best to enjoy, despite the difficult circumstances. He said he was really shocked about the violence the military had shown against civilians and women recently.

The Copts in Egypt celebrate their Christmas on January 7th, the date Christianity refers to as the epiphany, or the 12th day of Christmas. Apparently, this corresponds to the 29th day of the Coptic Month Kiohk. There is a small difference between the Coptic calendar and the Gregorian calendar.

As for me, I am praying for peace and fairly conducted elections in the New Year.


Yours, Warigia

Women's Rights on the front line as clashes in Egypt continue

Military police attack a female protester. Photo Credit Al Masry Al Youm.

Dear readers

Women's rights are at the forefront of the revolution. I am following the election closely, but so far, no woman has been elected from the party lists. I am in close contact with people from UNDP, as well as with people from various political parties, and as soon as I get a confirmation, I will publish the names of any women elected.

Otherwise, you may have heard that a female protester--who was veiled-- was beaten and stripped in the street. Another elderly woman was seen threatened by a police truncheon. It is no secret that Egypt has some concerns around the treatment of women.  In addition, women protesters were subjected to torture in the form of virginity tests in March. Sexual harassment is rampant, and we see that only three women are represented in Ganzouri's cabinet.

Hilary Clinton, Secretary of State of the United States, has expressed her deep concerns and outrage about this violence against women.

According to Al Masry Al Youm, "Nineteen political groups and several activists have called on Egyptians to attend a mass demonstration in Cairo's Tahrir Square on Friday under the slogan 'The free women of Egypt — restoring honor.'"


Check out this article from Jadaliyya on a recent women's march.

10000 Egyptian women march against military violence.

~WMB

Violence in Tahrir Ebbs

Two good links about violence in Tahrir 

"Tahrir Calm as death toll from last night's clashes rises" Al Masry Al Youm

"Urbanizing the Counter Revolution" Jadaliyya

"Female Protesters Systematically Targeted" Egypt Independent

~WMB

Good News and Bad News

Photo Credit Al Jazeera. Protester shouts slogans during clashes today.

Dear readers

Well with regard to the elections results, there is good news and there is bad news.

Let's start with the less than perfect news first. The FJP and Al Nour continue to lead in the second phase of the People's Assembly elections.

Some bad news is that there is fire in Tahrir. My father was just there. Apparently, some of the field hospitals have been attacked, and twitter is reporting that surgeons are needed. There is a big march to bury Sheikh Emmad Effat, but the Salafis are not present. 

The good news is that the Egyptian Bloc is retaining their position as a solid third. In a first past the post system, like in the US, third does not sound good. But in a partially list based system, third gives the liberal and secular Egyptian Bloc some real power in Parliament.

Al Wafd and Al Wasat are doing well in Sharqiya. Al Nour is dominating in Suez. 

Secular activists have not given up though. As I have said, it is remarkable that the Egyptian Bloc and other moderate and liberal parties are doing this well, particularly considering that they just formed in March. There is real potential for infighting between Salafis and the FJP. As Adel Soliman of the International Center for Future and Strategic Studies points out, the liberal parties will be needed to pass laws or block them.

Several smaller parties are throwing their weight behind the Bloc to show a more united front. (Daily News Egypt 11/12) Members of the Bloc are going into rural areas, and talking to local notables.

I personally think it is a serious mistake that the Revolution Continues refuses to coordinate with the Egyptian Bloc.

Tear Gas in Tahrir

I have personal, eyewitness information on the tear gas situation. This post is a bit delayed, but important.

Many reports have been issued by the protesters that the tear gas used in Tahrir was much stronger than that on January 25th. There are claims that the tear gas is CS, and can irritate skin, eyes, and mucous membranes. CS gas causes skin problems, raises blood pressure, and can eventually lead to cancer, and even severe injury or death.

How's Business, Tear Gas Economy Flourishes in Tahrir Square.

Study Alleges Tear Gas Used on Protesters Potentially Lethal.

Here is what I know, first hand.

I had a guest from America, Don B. He arrived on November 17th and left on November 28th. He went with his tour guide, Waleed, who is an egyptologist and a revolutionary, to Tahrir Square. Unfortunately, they got a little too close to Mohammed Mahmoud street, on November 22d, which was a police/protest battle-zone. They got gassed at close range.

Of course, they had the typical symptoms of stinging eyes and trouble breathing. But there was an additional symptom indicating that there was something really bad in that tear gas. On the parts of his body not covered by clothing, his skin began to be covered by a bad red rash. Over the course of a few days, his skin became inflamed, and even began to ooze a little pus.

We got fairly worried and took him to a pharmacist in Luxor. We explained that he had been tear gassed. The pharmacist prescribed something called triderm which had an antibiotic in it. The skin on my friends face dried up, and eventually peeled off. We were very lucky that we found a knowledgeable pharmacist.

Pretty harrowing evidence that the tear gas used in Tahrir was much stronger than normal.

Tahrir peaceful and protest growing

I have a friend in from town. He is going to the Egyptian Museum today. The tour guide, Waleed, went to Tahrir this morning, and says it is peaceful, and crowded. He participated in the January 25th Revolution. He said we should expect close to one million people in Tahrir by the end of the day. People are streaming in from everywhere.

Waleed and my friend were in Fayoum yesterday, and they said the people there are opposed to the military.

Just how bad is it?

Nobody really knows how bad the political situation in Egypt is. The last report I heard was that 35 people had been killed in Tahrir, and over 1000 injured seriously.

The AUC campus at Tahrir is closed. There have been reports that the library was burned. Hill house, the bookstore and the science building have broken glass.

The UNDP offices downtown are closed and people are working from home.

One AUC student Ahmed Abdel Rahim, was arrested in Tahrir Square yesterday. He is being detailed at the Kasr El Aini police station. AUC is trying to get him released and keep him safe.

As many as 4000 protesters are in Tahrir. They are not all Islamists. One of my students from my essentials of public policy class is there. Thirty Seven (37) revolutionary groups have demanded the resignation of Essam Sherif's government and the transfer of power to an elected civilian government by May 2012.

Clashes continue in Tahrir Square November 21, 2011

Clashes in Tahrir Square weekend of November 20th. Photo Credit Amr Abdalla.

 
If you are reading this blog, I assume you know that there have been clashes in Tahrir since Friday. The AUC campus at Tahrir is closed, and one AUC student is being held in police custody.

Short Version. The elections are coming up. They are scheduled on November 28th. On Friday the 18th, a large protest against the document regarding supra-constitutional principles was scheduled by Islamists. The protesters decided to camp out overnight. Riot police streamed into the square trying to break up the sit in. Police beat and arrested activists. More protesters poured into the square, supporting those who had been attacked. Police used tear gas and fired bullets. Protesters currently control Tahrir. The protesters are demanding the ouster of Field Marshal Tantawi.

Here is Al Masry Al Youm's (an independent paper) blow by blow. Second death reported in Alexandria, clashes continue in Cairo.

Here is Al Ahram's version. Al Ahram is owned by the government. Revolutionaries Recapture Tahrir in a Replay of January Uprising.

I was at Khan al Khallili yesterday, and we saw many many tanks drive by with armed soldiers on the way to Tahrir.

Sean Penn Becomes a Revolutionary

This past Friday was the "Friday of Reclaiming the Revolution." Sometimes I just wonder if the activists will run out of names for their Friday protests?

Thousands of activists, including Sean Penn, occupied Tahrir this past Friday, September 30, 2011. According to the British Guardian Newspaper, "The two-time Oscar winner arrived in North Africa at the invitation of Egyptian film star Khaled El Nabawy as part of efforts to show the country is once again safe for tourists following the revolution earlier this year that overthrew the regime of president Hosni Mubarak." (Ben Child, "Sean Penn Joins Protesters in Egypt," The Guardian, October 3, 2011)

I like Sean Penn. He was compelling and plausible in the movie Mystic River. I also like it that he is an activist. One more reason for me to watch his movies!

Many protesters were objecting to the concept of military rule. Other protesters were condemning the extension of the state of emergency. Field Marshall Tantawi of the SCAF was a special object of the protesters' anger. Demonstrators also protested against military treatment of civilians. Many protesters emphasized that this revolution was not going to turn out like 1954, and that Field Marshall Tantawi is not Gamal Abdel Nasser.

As explained by a particularly eloquent protester--Mirale Mohamed Hashem--who channeled my thoughts exactly, "This is not why we revolted. The goal of the revolution was to get rid of a tyrannical, oppressive regime, not to replace it with another one." (Ali Abdel Mohsen, "Activists, Sean Penn, Take to Tahrir for Friday of Reclaiming the Revolution," Al Masry Al Youm, September 30, 2011)

On Saturday, the SCAF represented by Armed Forces Chief of Staff Sami Anan sat down with leaders of 15 political parties. According to Al Shorouk, the camps agreed to a roadmap to hand over power within one year, (although we have heard that song before). The hardline Islamist Jama'a al-Islamiya was not invited to the meeting. Apparently, the People's Assembly and Shura Council will hold their first meetings in January and March, respectively.

According to Ahmed Zaki Osman writing in Al Masry Al Youm, the political parties are divided over Saturday's meeting. The Wafd party as well as the MB's Freedom and Justice Party, and the Adl party signed a statement following the meeting pledging their support for the SCAF. Thirty members resigned from El Adl after they signed this statement.  This statement was met with derision by the Popular Socialist Coalition Party.

The Wafd party has allegedly been recruiting former NDP members. This has apparently created a rift between Wafd and the MB's Freedom and Justice Party, which were thinking of forming a coalition. On Monday, the SCAF approved a treachery law which supposedly will prevent Mubarak regime members from being active in politics for five years, and remove those officials from their government positions. The treachery law was passed initially after the 1952 Revolution.

Meanwhile, Egypt is in financial trouble. Economic growth is at 1.36 percent in the 2011-2012 financial year. Growth for the 2010-2011 financial year was at 1.8 percent, a low figure. Mohamed El Baradei has warned that Egypt may face bankruptcy within six months, and criticized the SCAF for economic incompetence.

Happy Anniversary Tahrir!

Well, the protest in Tahrir has been going strong for a week now. And furthermore, the Revolution has been going on for nearly six months. In fact, I arrived in Egypt on January 25th, and my birthday is on July 25th, and we are still revolutionizing.

Here are some links to read as we reflect on this momentous occasion. 

Egypt: Revolution in progress 
http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/empire/2011/07/20117146399103458.html

Egyptians voice frustrations in Tahrir Square 
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/20117159536363741.html
 
Egypt's military representative visits Tahrir, amidst protesters' fury
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/477842

Why the success of the 25 January revolution resonates beyond Egypt
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/476190

Police cleansing no substitute for reform, activists say
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/477081

Political parties support postponing parliamentary elections
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/node/477135

Egypt's military announces committee on constitutional principles to little fanfare http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/476779

Preparing for Protest

It sounds like there is going to be a really big protest tomorrow at Tahrir. Writing in Al Masry Al Youm English (almasryalyoum), Noha El Hennawy states that Friday, the 8th of July is going to attract thousands. Her article is linked above, but to paraphrase, people are frustrated with the SCAF. Many of the Revolution's demands went beyond simply replacing Mubarak. The people also asked for freedom, integrity and social justice in their slogans.

According to the Arabist, the Muslim Brotherhood is planning to participate in tomorrow's protests. In general, the MB, reports the Arabist, has shied away from protests. Yet Ursula Lindsey suggests that it is time for them to fall in line with the popular mood.

Well, I was just at Tahrir today, for a second interview with Abdel Ghaffr Shokr. On my way out of town, back to New Cairo, we got stuck in a severe traffic jam near Tahrir. I was actually stuck in traffic literally next to the roundabout, the Midan, for about thirty minutes, so I had plenty of time to observe.

Here is what I saw at about 3 in the afternoon on Thursday. The entire roundabout has been cordoned off by the protesters (I presume) with green and yellow plastic nylon ropes in a kind of makeshift fence of sorts. There are many tents on the square. Some are military style plain white canvas pup tents. Some are the pup tents with revolutionary slogans written on them in Arabic in black and red paint. Another popular style of tents are made out of large flags put together. The Libyan and Palestinian flag are popular choices, and one tent had a roof made out of the Chinese flag.

The square has both men and women on it. I saw a Nekabi wandering around making preparations. Many youth were in evidence, sporting Palestinian style red and black checkered headscarfs to mark themselves as revolutionaries. One tent had older men, around fifty, with younger men, around twenty, and some very small revolutionaries, around five years old asleep in a heap under the shade of the pup tent.

Banners are already up, as is a stage, and the Egyptian flag is everywhere. The square is a bit worse for the wear. It is clean, more or less, but the grass is quite trampled, and cigarette butts litter the ground.

My university has issued stern warnings.

·       Anyone planning to travel to areas in Egypt outside Cairo should cancel their travel.

·        When you travel inside Cairo, limit all movements to the most essential only, and plan alternative routes avoiding large gatherings.

·        Avoid all rallies because of a credible risk of localized unrest.

·        Exercise caution when passing by government buildings, police stations and military barracks.

·        Treat members of the security forces you encounter with patience and respect, and follow all instructions promptly. Carry photographic identification and a mobile phone.

·        As a reminder, please ensure that you have an adequate supply of food in your home in the event that services are interrupted.

·        Keep updated on the situation by following media reports.

Hold on to your hats, folks. This one could be big! I will be staying indoors with my three children myself.  WMB

Violence in Tahrir Square in late June

Photo Credits, Al Masry Al Youm Newspaper, English Edition, June 29, 2011

Dear readers

I have been very busy with work. I just finished teaching an accelerated class on leadership. However, I got some worrisome emails from the office of the Vice President for Planning at AUC yesterday.

Dear AUC Community,


Please note that because of recent security environment changes in Down Town, all bus pick-ups will start from Al Zahraa bus station instead of Mohamed Mahmoud stop.

Thank you.


Well, that was a bit worrisome, but I just went about my routine. Then yesterday, I got an even scarier message.


Due to the continuing violence on the streets surrounding the Tahrir Campus (including Falaki Building); students, faculty and staff are not to come to the Tahrir Campus until further advised.

We are monitoring the situation on an ongoing basis and will update the AUC community as new information becomes available.

Thank you.

At this point, I decided that it might be advisable to get my head out of my guzitza and to actually read the newspaper.

Al Masry Al Youm reports that protesters threw rocks and molotov cocktails, and that the CSF fired multiple rounds of tear gas. The causes of the clash were unclear.

From speaking to colleagues and staff at the university yesterday, people told me that the clashes began because some families had raised money for the martyrs of the revolution. When the families went to collect the money, other families showed up, and also demanded money. By the way, the money was not being given out by the government. The money had been raised by well-meaning citizens. So, the legitimate families were standing in line, waiting to collect their money, and other families, who were allegedly not legitimate, started a fight. There was some sense that the "other families" were thugs.

Okay, back to the news reports.

Fifteen people were arrested as the relatives protested at the Balloon Theater in the Agouza district, after which the group decided to march on the Interior Ministry, close to Tahrir Square, where a further 20 were arrested.

Again, based on conversations, there was a sense that the group were actually thugs. People who I spoke to said that of 50 people treated for wounds, only one was a civilian. The others were all police.

According to Abdel Rahman Hussein, writing in Al Masry, (June 29, 2011)

As these later arrests were made, protesters clashed with security forces, and the confrontation spread to Qasr al-Aini Street, a main Cairo thoroughfare, and Mohamed Mahmoud Street, which borders the American University in Cairo’s downtown campus.


At least 25 civilians have been injured in the clashes so far.


Some protesters said they feared this was a continuation of the fallen regime's tactics. "It's the same thing happening again, nothing has changed," said Mohamed Abdel Raouf, a protester. Central Security Forces used tear gas extensively, as well as beatings and water cannons, during the early days of the 25 January revolution.

At least 44 people have been arrested in conjunction with the violence. Dalia Othman writes, that the cases have been referred to the military prosecutor. By the end of the day, writes Heba Hasham on the 29th, at least 655 people had been treated for injuries.

The impact on the economy has been negative. According to the AP wire

The Egyptian stock exchange's benchmark index has tumbled over two percent amid fresh clashes between security forces and protesters in central Cairo.


The benchmark EGX30 index closed at 5,283 points, shedding 2.03 percent from its previous day's settlement, as overnight fighting between security forces and hundreds of protesters in the capital's iconic Tahrir Square stretched into Wednesday.


The protesters were demanding the acceleration of the prosecution of police officers accused of brutality in during the uprising in five months earlier that ended with former President Hosni Mubarak's ouster.

The violence underscored the continued tension in the country as it struggles to rebuild its economy and push forward on democratic reforms.


As usual in Cairo, it is very difficult to figure out what is going on. As of this morning, reports are that 1036 persons have been injured.  My colleague in the law department tells me that the Egyptian people are becoming very disenchanted with the military. They are wondering if it is not time to have a revolution against the military.

Political Issues in the Transition to Democracy in Egypt. Part 1

Dear readers


These are my notes from a really amazing lecture I attended at the American University in Cairo, Tahrir Campus. The lecture was held on Tuesday, March 29, 2011. These lectures are part of the Tahrir Dialogue Series were sponsored by the AUC School of Global Affairs and Public Policy  and the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung. The speakers included Dr. Ibrahim Awad (Director of the Center of Migration and Refugee Services at AUC),  Dr. Nevine Mossaad (Institute of Arab Research and Studies Cairo University), Dr. Ibrahim El Issawy (National Planning Institute, People's Alliance Party), Dr. Amr El Shobaky (Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies) and Dr. Samer Soliman (AUC and Social Democratic Party). Simultaneous translation was provided. [] means I am adding in my own summary or interpretation, or pointing to something I may have left out. Any errors in transcription are my own. WMB 

Ibrahim Awad: Regarding the transition to democracy, there are a number of questions concerning the political parties law. Who was consulted in drafting this law? Is three to five months enough to create new parties?

Ibrahim Issawy: Actually, I want to talk about an economic angle. After this optimishm that we enjoyed for a few days after Mubarak left, after a short time we had the constitutional amendments. Some were confused, so appeared not to vote. Some said it was a religious duty [to vote]. People were victims []. Article 2 was not part of the referendum, but people were told to vote on it. They told us that there was going to be a dialogue. No one contacted me. Nothing was arranged. This banning of demonstrations. Why? We should have a dialogue. This insistence makes us worried and suspicious. The idea here is that what we see now is restoring the old law. Also, the military council was given a note [?]. Referendum, new constitution. Why are we wasting our time? Why should we go for--we need more time. If the military people are in a hurry [to get back to their duties] we can have a technocratic caretaker government. [We need the] formation of a committee for amendments. The legal personnel [appointed by the SCAF] were not specialized in Constitutional Law. Too much weight was given to the Muslim Brotherhood [on the committee].

The slogans of the revolution were economic.

1) Change, freedom, social justice
2) Bread, freedom, human dignity

Democracy is a tool to get to these objectives. We need a more even distribution of wealth. We want the whole system to come down. Not destroy the state, but redesign the state. The New Prime Minister said we are not going back "on free economy [?]." I think that this is just a way to reassure investors. What is the Egyptian economy going to be like.

In the short term, urgent steps are needed to bridge the economic gap. It is important to have a multi-phase program to deal with problems. Students want to get rid of the leadership that enslaved people for a long time. [missed some words] One is making 10 million Egyptian pounds a month, one is making 150 Egyptian pounds a month. We see this in banks. We can redistribute income and improve lower wages. Regarding minimum wage-let;s take some measure. Make people feel assured. Lets take from the millionaires. Improve services. Create investment opportunities. Right now there is no tax for capital profits. Maybe we can divide one big company into smaller ones. Investors want stability. In the previous period we lacked planning. They lacked a ministry for planning. There are clear ways to coordinate between sectors.

Ibrahim Awad: The economy is part of political life. The revolution succeeded because the victims reconsidered their doubts [Not sure about this].

Nevine Mossaad: I will talk about some points in brief. Are we actors or reactors? The relationship between three parties: The people, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and the religious powers. We were not consulted by SCAF on the amendments or the coming elections. When some of us had some reservations, we were told we wanted to delay stability. Mubarak stated this for 30 years, If what we wanted was stability, why did we have a revolution? We are not actors, we are reacting. The law of political parties was imposed on us. The national dialogue, I was invited to it, but it was not set for a sepcific date. How serious is it if no preparation is made? No, we will choose speakers according to their importance. No one has mentioned anything to us, and the dialogue is supposed to start tomorrow. {I am not sure if this dialogue took place. I will have to check} You have not prepared the files for the speakers.

We are invited to discuss the political parties law. But we don't have a trade union law. Law 100 has been annulled. Some people in the trade unions and syndicates drove away their leadership by force. Part of the civil society is not well organizaed. We need to prepare for ILO {International Labor Organization}. Some of the provisions in the political parties law: it is not allowed to have a political party on the basis of religion or race. Why don't we establish a political party for the workers as a class? Don't the workers matter? How can the MB be a member of another party if he is from a religious group. Annull Article 3.

The relationship between religious organizations and civil society. Why do we have to have a committee to approve political parties. It is an obstacel. There is a short time between the April and September elections. Who has the power to organize these large numbers. Collect 5000 signatures form 10 governorates in a short period of time. I have serious reservations about the political parties law. Egyptians want to form new parties, We need to form NGOs. One party wants to establish development programs.

Samr Soliman: He is with the Egyptian Social Democratic Party. He is a leftist. On the one hand we have trade union freedom, but protesters do not have the right to speak. The nature of this transitional period is important. I am not here as an academic, but as the founder of a new party. 1) People must be held accountable 2) We must be able to form civilian parties.

It is natural what is happening in Egypt. It is difficult to have a revolutionary government. We could have a coalition government, but the opposition is splintered. I think that party of the old regime is trying to get rid of a different part of the old regime.

The military is leading the transition. They could have gotten rid of the Constitution completely. But people are tired. We have lost momentum. The pressure should continue to keep the gains of the revolution and to clean the system. {Editors note, this talk given before the events of April 9th}. Look at the military police. Sometimes they are very violent for no reason. There are cases of torture. The committee making amendments was not elected. In fact, the committee was very imbalanced.  Bad luck. The 2d article was not part of the referendum. What is really worrying and scary about the amendments is that people with a double nationality or people with a foreign wife or husband cannot be president.

We need peaceful pressure to follow the right path. We have a problem. There is no political life for the last thirty years, and suddenly we have elections in September, yet there are no political parties. 1) forgery 2) violence 3) mney 4) groupings want to be represented. We have to pressure the transitional authority. We have to build political parties, work, join, volunteer. For the first time in years, people have an appetite for politics. Thousands of people have come to us {the SDP}. Middle aged and young. People have lots of ideas, social justice and democracy. bread, democracy, humanity and dignity. These were the goals of the revolution. The religious trend is gaining. Some times they give bribes like good supplies. We cannot do that. We have to respect people's political rights [not bribe them]. We need to talk to them about education and opportunities.

Ibrahim Awad: Dr. Samr said part of the old regime has moved away the most corrupt people. What is your opinion about the political parties law?

Amr El Shobawky: I am more optimistic than what my dear friend Dr. Nevine said. This optimism means that the transition to democracy is difficult. The late transition did not eradicate the old regime as occurred in revolutions in France, Russia and Iran. The Egyptian institution was not prepared for this. The Egyptian Revolution got up to 12 million people in one day. They did not eradicate the old regime. So I don't think we are an exception. One half of the Eastern Europeand countries were transformed by arrangements [at the end of the Cold War]. The camel battle has its precedent in Argentina. This is a good start we can build on in the future, In 2003, there was a change in Iraq. Iraq is a rich country. It has oil. But the starting point for the revolution in Egypt should be better than that in Iraq. The relationship between the people and the army: mutial respect will open horizons. In Portugal there was a coup d'etat and this opened the path to democracy.

The difficulties and the challenges we are witnessing in our transition to democracy. Article 3 of the political parties law is a disaster. [Based on the current amendments to the Constitution] President Sadat should not be president, because he is part Sudanese. Sarkizy could not be President of France because he is part Hungarian. Egyptians are reacting [missed something here] This is not in favor of the Egyptian society. The principle regarding independent candidacy. Membership requiring 5000 members to have a new party. This is good because we need to develop the hairdressing and barber profession [I know, non sequiter, but that is what my notes say] . 5000 signatures is reasonable. Solid ground. It is reasonable to get rid of parties without 500 signatures. There were 12 million protesters at the square. We need real elites. 5000 members to establish a party is reasonable.

In the same framework, political Islam is different now than before the 25th of Jan. There are problems. They are allowed now to have their political parties. We cannot have a democratic system that solves these issues by oppression. It appears the Muslim Brotherhood will have three parties. Christians were raising the flag of Egypt. The fundamentalists were raising the flag of Egypt. There is a New Egyptian identity.

Ibrahim Awad: He is optimistic, despite the confusion. He thinks the political parties can collect signatures. This democracy game will teach people not to be extreme.

See question and answer session in next post. WMB

Amending the Egyptian Constitution Part 1

2:25 p.m.

There will be a referendum on amending the Egyptian constitution tomorrow. My gut instinct is to vote no. I went to a crash training course on this. I am feeling a little scared, but I think I will try to go to Tahrir Square to see what is going on there.

2:27 p.m.

I went to a lecture by Professor Mervat Abou Ouf on the amendments this week. My understanding is that there are eleven proposed amendments to the constitution. article 75, article 76, article 77, article 88, article 93, artucle 139, article 148, article 179, and article 189 (and two others).[Author's note, this was incorrect, there are nine amendments. I misunderstood. WMB] Dr. Mervat pointed out that there have only been four weeks to review the amendments. That alone is reason to vote against them. We discussed the amendments in class. I am going to write down her critiques tomorrow morning.

11:17 p.m.

I made it to Tahrir Square. I am so glad I made it. It was one of the peak experiences of my stay in Egypt. The energy on the square was incredibly positive. Many families were there with their children. The children were adorable and several children and adults had Egyptian colors and the Arabic symbol for no painted on their face. It seemed that all the protesters there supported the No vote. I saw no protesters organizing for a Yes vote. Somehow I ended up having my photo taken with soldiers, and getting an egyptian flag, and the Arabic character for "No" painted on my face.

I went with my Egyptian colleague Mark Mikhael. Check out his great column on Coptic Christians and Muslims, and how we are all Egyptians here: (http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/348932). Many thanks to him for helping me navigate the square and protecting me from the thugs who tried to steal my camera at the end of the night!

The soldiers seemed so calm and authoritative. Everyone wanted me to take their picture. I think they thought I was a reporter. Did I mention that at the end of the protest, everyone, including me, got down on their hands and knees and picked up trash so that the square was nice and clean again? Absolutely amazing. If that is not revolutionary, I do not know what is.

11:54 p.m.

For Al Jazeera's comprehensive review of the amendments, click here. . . .
http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/spotlight/anger-in-egypt/2011/03/20113156309594476.html

Tahrir Square in March

Today I went to the AUC Campus at Tahrir Square. I went with my colleagues Dean Nabil Fahmy,  Dr. Ghada Barsoum, and Dr. Jennifer Bremer. The subject of the meeting was to discuss collaboration between AUC and the Harvard Kennedy School, of which Dr. Jennifer and I are both graduates. Yaawwn.....

Anywhoooo, the exciting part was being at Tahrir Square. The NDP building had been completely burned down, as had the tax building and a judiciary building. The square was VERY normal. Bustling with traffic and cars and pedestrians. It was hard to believe that the whole area had been covered with hundreds of thousands of protesters some weeks before.

The general consensus seems to be that some of the recent violence that has occurred on the square, and also between Christians and Muslims in Helwan may have been instigated by counter-revolutionary undercover security forces still loyal to the old regime.