Maspiro: The Aftermath

Mourners at Coptic Funeral. Photo Credit: Sarah Carr

 Well folks,

We are all in mourning here in Cairo. Everyone is in tears. I am reaching out to all of my Copt friends. I just cannot believe that the military fired on, and ran over, unarmed civilians. Regardless of religion, this is very difficult to stomach.

One of my colleagues suggested that the military is actually using the Islamists. That had not occurred to me, but that makes sense in a way. If the country is wracked by sectarian violence, the elections will be derailed, and the military retains power. Another colleague, who is a devout Muslim, places blame squarely on the head of Field Marshall Tantawi, head of the SCAF. 

Regardless of religion, the goal here is DEMOCRACY. Do not get distracted. Keep your eyes on the prize. We need to stay focused on peaceful, free and fair elections for all Egyptians, Sufi, Shia, Sunni, Copt, Bahai and secularists.

Here is the Arabist's take on it. Maspero and Sectarianism in Egypt. 

Here is journalist Sarah Carr's powerful eyewitness account. Marching from Shubra to Deaths at Maspero.

On to the news.

According to the Arabic edition of Al Masry Al Youm, Egyptians demonstrated in Aswan, Alexandria, Ismailia, Qena, Fayoum, and Assiut. Islamic groups held demonstrations in Aswan "condemning Coptic attacks on military personnel." Meanwhile, security forces strengthened their presence around churches to avoid further clashes. ("Egyptians demonstrate in wake of Maspero violence," Al Masry Al Youm, October, 10, 2011)

Umm, is it just me, but why do people believe that the Copts attacked the Army. It just does not make sense from a strictly logical standpoint. Just a little bit of gallows humour here: what are the Copts going to do, fight the Army with giant crosses? But seriously, it is pretty implausible that the Copts attacked the Army. I do not buy it. Many Muslims realize that these clashes represent incitement to sectarian strife, which is ultimately destabilizing.

According to Al Masry Al Youm, political party leaders and activists met Monday and called for an immediate transfer of power to civilian authorities. Political leaders also criticized the state run media's provocative coverage of Sunday night's violence. Leaders in attendance included Naguib Sawiris (Free Egyptians), Amin Iskander (Nasserist Karama Party), former finance minister Samir Radwan, and Hossam Eissa. 

Amr Moussa stated "We as Egyptians are facing a problem. It's not a Coptic and Muslim Problem. It is not a military or civilian problem, but it is a problem in Egypt's flawed society and inter-relations." Amr Moussa is a presidential candidate and a former foreign minister under Mubarak.

Okay, overall that is a good statement. However, I disagree with him on one issue. If the military fires on civilians, that is a military and civilian problem in my book. Call me crazy. . . .Anyway, Moussa lost my support when he stressed the importance of "ruling with an iron fist in order to protect the country from looming chaos." Sounds like he is on the SCAF payroll to me. . . .

Many leaders present criticized the SCAF's rule, and blamed them for their role in Sunday night's events. Those critical of the SCAF included Abdel Gelili Mostafa, leader of the National Association for Change, Mohamed ElBaradei, Ayman Nour, leader of the liberal New Ghad party, Mohamed Abul Ghar, president of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party, and female presidential hopeful Bothaina Kamel.The leaders also criticized state TV's coverage of the incidents, stating that this coverage was inciting sectarian violence. (Rana Khazbak, "Political Forces Slam Ruling Military Council for Attack on Copts," Al Masry Al Youm, October 11, 2011)

Egypt's state run media, which whitewashed the Revolution, has been harshly criticized in the wake of the Maspiro massacre. Minister of Information Osama Haikal urged the media to deal "wisely" with the clashes in their coverage. Maspiro (or Maspero) is the site of the Egyptian television, as well as the site of numerous protests. On State Run Channel One, Rasha Magdy said that Coptic protesters had been attacking soldiers and ended her show with a call for Egyptian citizens to protect the military. Many view her call as an incitement to sectarian violence.  Many media personalities who work in state television have distanced themselves from the official coverage of the incident. The main message of the state run news (the state run paper is Al Ahram) is that conspiracies are underway to arouse conflicts between the armed forces and the people. (Mai Elwakil, "State Media Coverage of Maspero violence raises tempers," Al Masry Al Youm, October 11, 2011)

According to Ahmed Zaki Osman, some eyewitnesses claim the military threw the bodies of dead protesters into the Nile during Sunday night's clashes. These reports are unverified. (Ahmed Zaki Osman, "Eye-witnesses claim military threw protesters bodies into the Nile," Al Masry Al Youm, October 11, 2011) 

Governance, Accountability and Stakeholders in Egypt

This semester I am teaching a class at the American University in Cairo called "Governance, Accountability, and Stakeholder Negotiation. It is a masters level class in public policy. It is a lot of fun, and we have been doing a lot of reading on how to improve governance in the Middle East and Africa. For example, we have read the Ibrahim Index as well as the World Bank MENA governance News and Notes.

This week, we were very lucky to have a special guest. Dr. Samer Soliman came and spoke to our class. He is the author of an important book just published by Stanford University Press. The book is titled The Autumn of Dictatorship: Fiscal Crisis and Political Change Under Mubarak.  In this book, Dr. Soliman evaluates the Egyptian budget to get lessons about allocation patterns, and the character of the authoritarian Egyptian state.

Here are some of his comments (paraphrased) on governance and accountability.

Accountability

The main issue of the Army is the budget. The second issue is that the Army has an economic empire. The military empire is off budget. If you examine the details of the Egyptian budget, you will not see it, but the evidence is all around us. One concern for the transition is that the Egyptian military is trying to prevent the new president from having power over the budget. 

It will likely take a while to move the military to its proper place in society. In Spain, the transition to democracy took 15 years. Currently in Egypt, we are operating under an interim constitution. At the moment, there is no article in the constitution that has a popular monitoring of the budget.  

We need an army, and we need a state. There has actually been a long term weakening of the Army since Sadat. The Nasser regime was really a military regime. This is less true today. In Iraq under Saddam, there was no distance at all between the regime and the state. This is also true of Syria today. In Egypt, there is some distance. The military is not divided along sectarian lines, like the Syrian military. It is important to get the military budget into the state budget. Right now, there is a lack of civilian control of the budget. 

Taxation plays an important role in accountability. Taxation in Egypt is currently corrupt and inefficient. Democracy facilitates the task of taxation because it enhances popular legitimacy. We also need progressive taxation. 


Stakeholders


With regard to stakeholders under the Mubarak Regime, there were no real political parties. There were just pressure groups. The opposition parties had no chance to rule. New political parties are emerging. In the future, we will have real political parties in Egypt. Syndicates will be much more important. There was no real syndicate life under the old regime. The syndicates can play an important role as an instrument of bargaining and problem solving. Many social groups in Egypt do not have real power. The Egyptian diaspora is important. Civil society will be more important in the new period. The SCAF is pushing the diaspora aside because they are dangerous. They are a huge asset in terms of their money, their knowledge, and their connections. 


Elections

It is not correct that the SCAF will be appointing all 100 members of the task force to write the constitution. Rather, they will set the criteria of how people for the task force are selected. The parliamentary elections will be in November. Then, there will hopefully be presidential elections, although it is vague. The constitution should be drafted within 6 months after the presidential elections. There is no guarantee that the constitutional drafting will be finished in the transition period. 


Egyptian Social Democratic Party

The party I belong to is the SDP. It is objectively, the best party in Egypt, and you should join it. {laughter}. We respect the market economy, but we also believe in a welfare state, and we support social justice. Our party is based on the assumption that economic development needs to create opportunities for the poor, but still be based on the market. We want to give people the instruments and means to defend their rights. It is creative conciliation between the market, and social democracy. 

Confusion over electoral districts

Dear readers

I would be lying if I said I understood all the fine points of Egyptian election laws, but Allah knows I am trying!

Again, on September 21, 2011, Assistant Defense Minister Mamdough Shahin announced that the parliamentary elections will be held as scheduled, under a mixed system of 50 percent list-based and 50 percent single-winner candidacies. People's Assembly elections will be held separately from those of the Shura Council. The People's Assembly elections will be held at the end of November over three stages of two weeks each. 

Somehow, Egyptian law as recently passed by the SCAF requires that 50 percent of parliament should be made up of farmers and workers. I like this sentiment. I think it is great. But as an academic, I wonder who decides exactly who is a farmer or a worker? Who makes the decision? What is the test? Are we looking for small farmers, fellaheen, or will anyone with land under cultivation do? This creates a post-modernist dilemma for me? In whose hands does the decisionmaking lie?

Further, there is unhappiness over electoral districts. There is a military backed electoral law regarding the mapping of electoral districts. Many parties are unhappy with it, including Egypt Freedom, Egyptian Social Democratic Party, Free Egyptians and Wasat party. The law, apparently, seems to help the old NDP. Once I understand what the law actually says, I will be sure to let you know.

The 25 January Revolution Youth Coalition as well as the Muslim Brotherhood-led Democratic Alliance for Egypt may announce their lists of candidates before the parliamentary poll scheduled for November.

Adel al Morsy, head of the Military Judicial Authority, has announced that the State of Emergency will continue until June 30, 2012. 

Letter to Donald Horowitz (long version)

Dear editors, 

I am writing to comment on an excellent article by Donald Horowitz about Egypt published in the Summer 2011 issue of the Wilson Quarterly.

I write not to quibble with Horowitz' largely thoughtful analysis, but to provide some new information and some nuance. In that article, Horowitz makes the following arguments. He argues that due to the short time table for the current elections, the well organized Muslim Brotherhood  (MB) and some reconstituted version of the old regime's National Democratic Party (NDP) will win a large share of the 508 seats in Egypt's lower house of parliament (the People's Assembly). He also notes how important it is to determine the rules that govern how elections are structured. The proportional list system, argues Horowitz, will be beneficial to liberal, secular parties.Finally, he points out that lessons from other nations teach us that the greater the number of individuals involved in drafting a constitution, the higher the resulting level of democracy.He makes an important note that the technical rules around drafting the constitution matter, and can lead to a higher level of democracy.

I would like to make the following three points in response to his article.

First, I agree that the MB will likely benefit from earlier elections. It appears, however, that parliamentary elections will not be held in September. Nor will candidacy even begin in late September, as previously thought. Previously, we had thought elections would be held in November. Now, however,  fluidity remains in the scheduled election dates. Mohammed El Baradei and other presidential candidates have asked for Presidential elections to be held in February because they need time to regroup.

Many analysts say that the MB, Islamists, and the remnants of the old regime wish to have elections as soon as possible, because their forces are more organized. The sooner elections are held, they argue, the better the MB and NDP will do. By contrast, later elections will assist the secular groups, and leftists.

The risk in delaying elections is that due to delay, there will  be no elections. Perhaps I am wrong, but personally, I would prefer a government which includes representation from an elected Muslim Brotherhood pressured by moderate forces to a government run by decree by an unelected SCAF.  By delaying elections, the SCAF is left in place, which increases the period of time during which Egypt is ruled by a military junta. The Muslim Brotherhood is not the most radical of Islamist forces on the ground in Egypt. Further, the Muslim Brotherhood has shown both the ability and the willingness to converse with secular forces. Finally, it is likely that the Muslim Brotherhood will win far fewer seats than outside observers fear.


Second, I would like to note that the Egyptian political scene is vibrant and varied. With the advent of the Revolution, new leftist parties have emerged. These include the Public Social League, or the Coalition of Socialist parties (Al Tahalof al Shabee Al Eshterakee).  They are firmly committed to the civil state, the rights of women, improvements in health care and education, and supporting the farmers, the workers, and the youth. This group has solid intellectual credentials, significant experience, and a sophisticated long-term strategy. They may not win an enormous amount of votes in the first election, but they are certain to be influential on the Egyptian political scene in the coming years. Another moderate leftist party in the vein of the British Labor party, or the German Social Democrats, is the Egyptian Social Democrat party. This party includes many Anglo Christians and Copts, but is styled in the grand old tradition of European moderate left.

In addition to the more leftist parties, a new generation of liberal, free market parties are emerging in Egypt. These include the Free Egyptians (Hezb Al Masreen Al Ahrrar) party. This party was established by telecommunications mogul Naguib Sawiris, and supports free enterprise principles. It supports improved equality for women and Copts, a civilian government, and major efforts to reduce poverty. Another important liberal party is the Democratic Front Party (Hezb Al Gabha Al Democrateya). This party was extant under the Mubarak government, but refused to participate in parliamentary elections. It fought for measures to secure fair elections under Mubarak. The party participated in the Egyptian Revolution, and is popular with middle-aged Egyptian voters. Amr Hamzawy — a perennial favorite among the youth due to his good looks, charisma, and impressive intellectual credentials — is currently affiliated with the Egyptian Freedom Party (Masr Al Horeya). He has returned from his post with the Carnegie Endowment in Beirut to help build political awareness in Egypt and is currently teaching at the American University in Cairo. The Egyptian Freedom party supports democracy, delegation of authority, the sovereignty of law, equality, and a reduction in social classes. The party also supports decentralization and more autonomy for governorates.

My final observation is that who selects the people on the Constitution drafting task force is extremely important. Originally, the representatives from the task force were to come from parliament. Currently, the SCAF is stating that it will select all 100 members of that task force. This is extremely problematic. As Horowitz points out, it is important for a multitude of groups to be involved in drafting the constitution. If the SCAF selects the groups in the constitutional task force, it will drastically limit diversity of composition, as well as views. The referendum task force, for example, had no women. Obviously, Copts need representation on this task force, but so do people from Upper Egypt, Nubians, women, leftists, secularists, and other minorities. At this point, the SCAF seems committed mainly to perpetuating its own existence as the head of Egyptian government. Accordingly the most important details to get right at this point,  are ones of process and inclusion. A broad swath of the Egyptian people need to have some say in who writes the constitution. And the Egyptian people need a hand in helping to determine which procedures will be used to ensure free and fair elections.

Happy Anniversary Tahrir!

Well, the protest in Tahrir has been going strong for a week now. And furthermore, the Revolution has been going on for nearly six months. In fact, I arrived in Egypt on January 25th, and my birthday is on July 25th, and we are still revolutionizing.

Here are some links to read as we reflect on this momentous occasion. 

Egypt: Revolution in progress 
http://english.aljazeera.net/programmes/empire/2011/07/20117146399103458.html

Egyptians voice frustrations in Tahrir Square 
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/20117159536363741.html
 
Egypt's military representative visits Tahrir, amidst protesters' fury
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/477842

Why the success of the 25 January revolution resonates beyond Egypt
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/476190

Police cleansing no substitute for reform, activists say
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/477081

Political parties support postponing parliamentary elections
http://www.almasryalyoum.com/node/477135

Egypt's military announces committee on constitutional principles to little fanfare http://www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/476779

Samer Soliman of Egyptian Social Democratic Party: Background and Influences

Interview with Dr. Samer Soliman, June 6, 2011. Interview conducted by Dr. Warigia Bowman, Assistant Professor, American University, School of Global Affairs and Public Policy.

Samer Soliman is a Professor of Political Science at the American University in Cairo. He is also a founding member, and a member of the facilitating committee of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party. He is currently being encouraged by close advisors to consider a run for the Egyptian Parliament, but has not made up his mind.

W: Where are you from in Egypt?

S: I am from a middle class family. Both of my parents were teachers. I am from a neighborhood called EEbaasir. (sp?) which is a neighborhood near downtown Cairo located near the Coptic Orthodox Cathedral. I attended the Egyptian French School. I did my undergraduate studies in the Faculty of Economics at Cairo University, my masters in Sociology at American University in Cairo, and earned my doctorate in Paris at the Sciences Po.

I grew up in a politicized family. Many people in my family were interested in or engaged in politics. I was raised in a secular family. My family was Christian, but secular. My mother is religious. My father was a communist.

W: Is there a difference in the way which Christians and Muslims view politics in Egypt?

S: They may view politics slightly differently. At the time of the July Regime, in 1952 most people in Egypt were apolitical. Egyptians were encouraged to support parties, but never to participate. Lately, a sectarian spirit is increasing in Egyptian society. I was never raised as a Copt. I was raised as a nationalist, in a secular home, that was somehow leftist.

It was not until university that I began to discover my Christian identity. I fell in love with a Muslim girl. It was leading nowhere. Your options in Egypt, if you are a Christian man are to convert to Islam or to emigrate. The society does not accept for Christian men to marry Muslim women.

Until university, I had never experienced discrimination as a Christian. In time, I understood the intensity of the sectarian issue in Egypt. My mother had told me there is discrimination, but I had not personally experienced it [until the time of my romance] In the army, I understood the sectarian issue. It is a corrupt institution based on wasta. They ask you when you come in, do you have wasta? It was astonishing.

W: Tell me about your experiences in the Army.

S: I served in the Air Force in the early 1990s, 1991/2. The Army, like armies all over the world, is very paternalistic. Discrimination is very strong against the poor and uneducated. More than anything else, upper Egyptians are discriminated against especially. People would make fun of them, tease them, harass them about their accent. [If you are Upper Egyptian and wealthy and have wasta you are okay. ] The worst thing is if you are Upper Egyptian and are also poor.

The Army was a rich experience for me. I got in deep touch with the peasants, uneducated peasants from deep in the Egyptian countryside. [It was an amazing social education.] There is strong solidarity among soldiers with regard to the big monster, the institution of the military. We were not given any deep lessons about national security. The enemy here is Israel. Also, you learned to shoot. . . .

Protecting Freedom of Information in Egypt: What is Old is New Again

 

Please read the rest of this article in Al Masry Al Youm.  WMB

Freedom of Information and freedom of expression are under fierce and sustained attack in Egypt, North Africa and the Middle East. Innovative solutions are required to protect our right of assembly, our right to dialogue, our freedom of the press, our right to form political parties, and our right to communicate with our global neighbors.  Yet sometimes the answers are right in front of us.

Much has been written about how "Army and the people are one hand" in Egypt. Overall, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces has exercised a competent and relatively benign approach to governing Egypt. Yet, lest we lapse into complacency, there are some warning signs, particularly in the area of free expression and freedom of information.

First, the right of the Egyptian people to organize themselves into political groupings of their choice is under attack. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for September. This gives political parties only five months to form and prepare for elections. This short time line arguably heavily favors already established groups.  New parties will need the approval of at least 5000 voters from ten of Egypt's 29 provinces. I attended a lecture at the American University in Cairo at Tahrir Square on Tuesday night, in which the Nevine Mossad, Amr El Shobaky, Samer Soliman, and Ibrahim El Issawy said that this provision also requires publication in two major newspapers. The costs for this kind of publication could run to one million Egyptian pounds, which will likely disadvantage new parties.

Continue reading in Al Masry Al Youm

The Muslim Brotherhood

Feb 21, 2011

I am beginning my research on who, or what, the Muslim Brotherhood is. This not an area I intend to publish on. I just want to have an informed opinion.

What I know right now is that they were a banned opposition party under Mubarak. They were the most organized opposition movement. My students tell me that the Slogan of the Muslim Brotherhood is "Islam is the Answer." However, they have said that they will not field a candidate for President in the upcoming elections. The MB has formed a new political party called the Justice and Freedom Party. Elections are expected to be held in Egypt in September.

Conventional wisdom is that the Muslim Brotherhood is not polling more than 20% of the Egyptian public. Egypt is the most modern, and the most secular of the major Arab states. Women pay a key role at all levels in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood did not organize the protests on Tahrir Square, nor did the Brotherhood actually endorse the first round of protests, and only joined them belatedly. Their slogans, say my students, were no where in evidence. The youth of Egypt led the Revolution, not the Brotherhood. Rob L. Wagner argues that the Brotherhood does not have the support of Egypt's youth.

The Muslim Brotherhood was formed in1928 by Hassan al Banna. The Brotherhood has been banned in Egypt since 1954. Notably, the Brotherhood denounced violenced years ago.  The Brotherhood won 88 seats in Parliament (20%) in the 2005 elections.  Mubarak saw the Brotherhood as a threat, and cracked down on the organization in 2005.
 
Now, Mubarak has stepped down, the parliament has been dissolved, and the constitution has been suspended. It appears that the Armed Forces is in favor of amending the constitution, which would allow the Muslim Brotherhood a new shot at legitimacy. A panel of experts drawing up changes to the Egyptian constitution will include a member of the Brotherhood.

Many fear that the Brotherhood will turn Egypt into an Islamist state. However, many characterize the Brotherhood as "moderate." The question is whether the Brotherhood truly supports multi-party democracy, or would prefer a theocracy, such as currently rules Iran.


References:
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContentPrint/1/0/5956/Egypt/0/Muslim-Brotherhood-expected-to-win-legality,-lose-.aspx
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/16/world/middleeast/16brotherhood.html?ref=egypt&pagewanted=print
http://www.foregnpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/14/think_again_egypt
http://mideastposts.com/2011/02/02/why-the-west-should-not-fear-the-muslim-brotherhood/
http;//english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/02/201129214579... 
http://www.npr.org/2011/02/15/133759039/muslim-brotherhood-wild-card-in-egypt-power-game