Happy Armed Forces Day

Today is Armed Forces Day in Egypt. It is a national holiday. The SCAF, using its Facebook page,  has invited the Egyptian public to celebrate the 38th Anniversary of the October war in various public spaces in Cairo. The anniversary celebrates Egypt's military victories against Israel in the 1973 October War. Strikes me as rather Soviet. Also the focus on opposing Israel tends to distract people from the real problems at home.
 
Personally, I do not think there is very much to be happy about with regard to the Egyptian Armed Forces. As the eloquent protester in Tahrir has put it, we have traded one dictatorial government for another. Mubarak is gone, but Egypt is currently ruled by a military junta. The transition is going very slowly, and there are fears that there will not be a democratic transition at all. It is good news that we have a firm date for upcoming People's Assembly elections. However, the presidential elections are still far off, and the SCAF does not want to allow the parliament to have the power to review the military budget. Such a restriction would eviscerate parliament's power of the purse, and keep Egypt from being a true democracy.

There may be a massive protest tomorrow to demand a timetable for handing over power from SCAF to an elected civilian authority. The days when the people and the army were one hand seem far away . . .As the Beatles sang, Yesterday, all my troubles seemed so far away, now they look as if they're here to stay . . . sigh . . .

Regardless, my favorite newspaper Al Masry Al Youm reports that six presidential hopefuls have prepared a potential timetable for the transfer of power to an elected civilian president by April 15, 2012. This timetable intends to shorten the transitional period, which appears to be harming Egypt's economy. Indeed, the Minister of Manpower and Immigration, Ahmed al-Borai stated on Wednesday that Egypt is on the brink of bankruptcy. He cautioned Egyptian workers against "excessive demands."

The presidential candidates wish to submit their candidacy papers two weeks after the Shura council elections conclude. The period for presidential campaigning would run from February 15th to the end of March. The elections would begin on April 1, with runoffs on April 10, 2012. This accelerated timetable is in response to a constitutional declaration issued by the SCAF on September 25th stating that presidential elections will be held at the end of 2012, or the start of 2013.

Meanwhile, Noha El-Hennawy reports that some worry the generals may be eyeing the presidency. Under the military's plan, the generals will remain in charge until the end of 2012 at the earliest. This contradicts their initial pledges, which were that the SCAF would return to the barracks six months after presidential and parliamentary elections. The plan has changed repeatedly. Many fear the military is stretching the transitional period to prepare the ground for a general to run for president.

Ruling Council's proposed timetable ignites fears of a military president

In further political woes, Sarah Carr reports that my favorite Egyptian party, the SDP is riven by divisions. I cannot believe that they signed a document last Saturday in support of the SCAF! What is going on people? I am really feeling shocked and dissappointed. Mohamed Abul Ghar, ESDP's leaders said he left the meeting early and found that a paragraph had been inserted into the statement saying "the signatory parties ...declare their complete support for SCAF and recognize the role SCAF has played in protecting the revolution and transferring power to the people." Abul Ghar disavows this statement.

Egyptian Social Democratic Party Divided over military council statement

Political Parties Divided after some sign statement in support of military council 

Well folks, things are not going that well. Prayers for the Egyptian people. 

Sean Penn Becomes a Revolutionary

This past Friday was the "Friday of Reclaiming the Revolution." Sometimes I just wonder if the activists will run out of names for their Friday protests?

Thousands of activists, including Sean Penn, occupied Tahrir this past Friday, September 30, 2011. According to the British Guardian Newspaper, "The two-time Oscar winner arrived in North Africa at the invitation of Egyptian film star Khaled El Nabawy as part of efforts to show the country is once again safe for tourists following the revolution earlier this year that overthrew the regime of president Hosni Mubarak." (Ben Child, "Sean Penn Joins Protesters in Egypt," The Guardian, October 3, 2011)

I like Sean Penn. He was compelling and plausible in the movie Mystic River. I also like it that he is an activist. One more reason for me to watch his movies!

Many protesters were objecting to the concept of military rule. Other protesters were condemning the extension of the state of emergency. Field Marshall Tantawi of the SCAF was a special object of the protesters' anger. Demonstrators also protested against military treatment of civilians. Many protesters emphasized that this revolution was not going to turn out like 1954, and that Field Marshall Tantawi is not Gamal Abdel Nasser.

As explained by a particularly eloquent protester--Mirale Mohamed Hashem--who channeled my thoughts exactly, "This is not why we revolted. The goal of the revolution was to get rid of a tyrannical, oppressive regime, not to replace it with another one." (Ali Abdel Mohsen, "Activists, Sean Penn, Take to Tahrir for Friday of Reclaiming the Revolution," Al Masry Al Youm, September 30, 2011)

On Saturday, the SCAF represented by Armed Forces Chief of Staff Sami Anan sat down with leaders of 15 political parties. According to Al Shorouk, the camps agreed to a roadmap to hand over power within one year, (although we have heard that song before). The hardline Islamist Jama'a al-Islamiya was not invited to the meeting. Apparently, the People's Assembly and Shura Council will hold their first meetings in January and March, respectively.

According to Ahmed Zaki Osman writing in Al Masry Al Youm, the political parties are divided over Saturday's meeting. The Wafd party as well as the MB's Freedom and Justice Party, and the Adl party signed a statement following the meeting pledging their support for the SCAF. Thirty members resigned from El Adl after they signed this statement.  This statement was met with derision by the Popular Socialist Coalition Party.

The Wafd party has allegedly been recruiting former NDP members. This has apparently created a rift between Wafd and the MB's Freedom and Justice Party, which were thinking of forming a coalition. On Monday, the SCAF approved a treachery law which supposedly will prevent Mubarak regime members from being active in politics for five years, and remove those officials from their government positions. The treachery law was passed initially after the 1952 Revolution.

Meanwhile, Egypt is in financial trouble. Economic growth is at 1.36 percent in the 2011-2012 financial year. Growth for the 2010-2011 financial year was at 1.8 percent, a low figure. Mohamed El Baradei has warned that Egypt may face bankruptcy within six months, and criticized the SCAF for economic incompetence.

Public Transport workers strike

Yesterday I made my weekly pilgrimage into downtown. I live in Rehab, which is part of Greater Cairo, but kind of a suburb out in the desert near the AUC campus. I enjoy getting into town and experiencing the urban life of one of the greatest cities in the world.

I came into town and had a lovely cocktail with an editor friend of mine, at Al Masry Al Youm and a journalist friend. We went to Estoril, at Talaat al Harb, which is one of the most atmospheric of Cairene venues.

Walking back to the car in the evening, the road was blocked by large buses with large banners hanging on the front of them. There were hundreds of workers sitting on the street, smoking, drinking coffee and eating Taamiya. Apparently, this was the public transport strike which I read about in the news this morning. The workers closed Qasr al Ainy street and said they would remain until the cabinet responded to their demands.

The workers are demanding higher salaries, and improved services. According to my guest lecturer, Dr. Samer Soliman, one of the issues plaguing the public sector in Egypt is the vast inequity in public pay. In some offices, employees earn millions of pounds a month. In other offices, employees earn a few hundred pounds for similar work. These issues must be resolved as the revolution progresses.

~WMB