Drafting Egypt's Constitution

Dear Readers

I apologize for my absence, I have been attending to urgent family matters, and have not had time to write enough.

But I am back, and recommitted, Ilhamdillulah!

So, what is new? As is usual there is a lot going on in Egypt these days. My biggest worry regarding democracy is secularism and the constitution. According to an article on NPR by Soraya Sarhaddi Nelson, Unease Grows Over Islamist Political Agenda in Egypt, Parliament has handpicked a 100 member panel that has begun meeting to write a new Egyptian constitution. 

The worry is where this leaves Christians, Bahai and other religious minorities. Is there room to be secular in Egypt? According to that article, as many of two-thirds of the panel members are Islamist or allies. "Only a handful of women and Christians were selected to take part." Several secular panelists have since quit the constitutional panel in protest.

On March 23rd, hundreds protested against the formation of a constitution writing assembly, Protesters reject formation of constitution-writing assembly. Egypt Independent. Protesters rallied in front of the High Court of Justice to demand that the SCAF relinquish power to a civilian government. They also protested against the composition of the group who will draft Egypt's constitution. As of now, MPs will constitute half of that group's membership. The other half are to be composed of experts from other fields.

On March 24th, parliament members from the Free Egyptians Party, the Revolution Continues Coalition, and the Egyptian Social Democratic Party pulled out of talks regarding the composition of the constitutional drafting committee. Adl Party and Karama party representatives walked out of the session as well. The dissenters accused the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party and the far right Islamist Nour party of dominating the Constitutional committee.

~WMB

Egyptian Parliament convenes amid protests

Egypt's lower house of Parliament, the People's Assembly, convened yesterday, Monday the 23rd of January. It's opening was contentious, as protesters rallied to demand an end to military trials, a handover of power to civilians, and retribution for martyrs.

Doctors marched from the Doctors Syndicate on Qasr al Aini Street. Meanwhile artists and intellectuals held a march from the Cairo Opera House. The so-called "Creativity Front" demanded protection for freedom of creativity.

As many as 2000 protesters lined the street leading to Parliament, which was protected by iron gates, riot police the Central Security Forces, who were in turn protected--somewhat oddly in my view--by hundreds of Salafis and MB members.

Noha El-Hennawy comments that it is not clear how powerful the parliament is in relation to the ruling military council. The MB Democratic Alliance holds 235 seats (47%), the Salafis 135, the moderate Wafd 38 and the Egyptian Bloc 35. There are 498 seats. A variety of independents, including NDP remnants, hold the remaining seats.

Supreme Constitutional Court Vice President Tahani al-Gebali states that the military council still holds the right to ratify or veto bills. This right comes from the temporary constitution in place which was partly written by military decree last spring.

Despite its drawbacks, the Egypt Independent observes that this is the "first fairly elected legislative body in nearly six decades." (Noha El Hennawy, "Egypt's New People's Assembly Swears in Today, but Powers Are Dubious," Al Masry Al Youm, January 24, 2012)

Egypt's Parliament voted Mohamed Saad al Katatny of the Freedom and Justice Party as People's Assembly speaker during its first session. Katatny received 399 votes. Before donning the mantle as speaker, Katatny served as secretary general of the Muslim Brotherhood affiliated Freedom and Justice party. In his first speech, he stated tat "We want to build a new Egypt: a constitutional, democratic and modern Egypt." (Staff "Egypt's New Parliament elects FJP figure as speaker," Egypt Independent, January 24, 2012.)

Elections for the Shura council will begin later this month and end in February. The two chambers are slated to choose a 100 member panel to draft a new constitution, although at this point, anything could happen.

~WMB

Overview of People's Assembly Results, Round 3

Dear readers

This is a report on parties I care about, mainly secular and liberal. The rest of the news will keep you apprised of the Islamists, right? 

• FJP holds 45.20% of seats, Al Nour, 25.20% of seats. Therefore together the Islamists hold about 70% of the seats in the lower house.
• Al Wafd with 9% of seats, Egyptian Bloc with 7% of seats, RDP coming from behind with nearly 3% of seats beating out Revolution Continues (the bad boys of the left) with 2.34% of seats. The moderate Islamists Al Wasat with 2 percent. So according to my calculations, liberals and moderates currently hold about 23% of seats, which is not bad at all if they vote as a bloc.

427 of 498 seats in Egypt's lower house of Parliament, the People's Assembly, have been determined.

As many as 71 Seats remain. 45 seats will be determined from runnoffs from round 3. 14 list based seats are subject to a re-vote in Aswan district 1 and Cairo district 1. 12 seats need a re-vote for individual candidacies in Cairo district 1, Alexandria's district 3, Assiut districts 2 and 3, and Sharqiya districts 2 and 5. Runoffs will be conducted on January 10th and 11th.

Revolution Continues did surprisingly well in Daqhaliyya with 12% of votes, winning one seat on list one and one seat on list 2, and one seat on list 3. Three seats total were one by the RCA. Egyptian Bloc trailed with 2.62% of the vote, winning no seats.

In Gharbiya, Egyptian Bloc won a total of 2 seats. Al Wafd won 4 Seats. 

In Minya, unfortunately, NDP remnants getting some play with 1 Seat going to the Freedom party. Al Wasat wins 1 seat, Egyptian Bloc wins 2 Seat, and the old school opposition, Al Wafd, carries 1 seat, as does the moderate Islamist Al Wasat.

In Qalioubiya, Al Wafd with 2 Seats, Egyptian Bloc with 1.

In Qena, Al Wafd with 1, and extremely confusingly, the SDP which is part of the Egyptian Bloc, with 1 seat. Three seats go to (bad) NDP cover parties.

Marsa Matruh, nothing for secular or moderate parties. In New Valley, the Nasserists make a showing with 1 seat! The RDP with 1 seat in North Sinai. I need to look into this group, but I believe they are affiliated with Sadat's son. South Sinai, Wafd, and RDP in the house.

More thoughts soon. ~WMB

Happy Armed Forces Day

Today is Armed Forces Day in Egypt. It is a national holiday. The SCAF, using its Facebook page,  has invited the Egyptian public to celebrate the 38th Anniversary of the October war in various public spaces in Cairo. The anniversary celebrates Egypt's military victories against Israel in the 1973 October War. Strikes me as rather Soviet. Also the focus on opposing Israel tends to distract people from the real problems at home.
 
Personally, I do not think there is very much to be happy about with regard to the Egyptian Armed Forces. As the eloquent protester in Tahrir has put it, we have traded one dictatorial government for another. Mubarak is gone, but Egypt is currently ruled by a military junta. The transition is going very slowly, and there are fears that there will not be a democratic transition at all. It is good news that we have a firm date for upcoming People's Assembly elections. However, the presidential elections are still far off, and the SCAF does not want to allow the parliament to have the power to review the military budget. Such a restriction would eviscerate parliament's power of the purse, and keep Egypt from being a true democracy.

There may be a massive protest tomorrow to demand a timetable for handing over power from SCAF to an elected civilian authority. The days when the people and the army were one hand seem far away . . .As the Beatles sang, Yesterday, all my troubles seemed so far away, now they look as if they're here to stay . . . sigh . . .

Regardless, my favorite newspaper Al Masry Al Youm reports that six presidential hopefuls have prepared a potential timetable for the transfer of power to an elected civilian president by April 15, 2012. This timetable intends to shorten the transitional period, which appears to be harming Egypt's economy. Indeed, the Minister of Manpower and Immigration, Ahmed al-Borai stated on Wednesday that Egypt is on the brink of bankruptcy. He cautioned Egyptian workers against "excessive demands."

The presidential candidates wish to submit their candidacy papers two weeks after the Shura council elections conclude. The period for presidential campaigning would run from February 15th to the end of March. The elections would begin on April 1, with runoffs on April 10, 2012. This accelerated timetable is in response to a constitutional declaration issued by the SCAF on September 25th stating that presidential elections will be held at the end of 2012, or the start of 2013.

Meanwhile, Noha El-Hennawy reports that some worry the generals may be eyeing the presidency. Under the military's plan, the generals will remain in charge until the end of 2012 at the earliest. This contradicts their initial pledges, which were that the SCAF would return to the barracks six months after presidential and parliamentary elections. The plan has changed repeatedly. Many fear the military is stretching the transitional period to prepare the ground for a general to run for president.

Ruling Council's proposed timetable ignites fears of a military president

In further political woes, Sarah Carr reports that my favorite Egyptian party, the SDP is riven by divisions. I cannot believe that they signed a document last Saturday in support of the SCAF! What is going on people? I am really feeling shocked and dissappointed. Mohamed Abul Ghar, ESDP's leaders said he left the meeting early and found that a paragraph had been inserted into the statement saying "the signatory parties ...declare their complete support for SCAF and recognize the role SCAF has played in protecting the revolution and transferring power to the people." Abul Ghar disavows this statement.

Egyptian Social Democratic Party Divided over military council statement

Political Parties Divided after some sign statement in support of military council 

Well folks, things are not going that well. Prayers for the Egyptian people. 

The plot thickens

Egyptian politics gets more and more dramatic. On Sunday, the SCAF approved new amendments to the elections law. As a result, two thirds of constituencies will be allocated according to the list-based system, and one third according to the single-winner system. Further, the SCAF has reduced the number of seats in the People's Assembly from 508 to 498.

As a colleague explained to me yesterday, having one third single-winner system makes electoral districts bigger. So, if 1/2 of the candidates are under a single-winner system, then the 80 million people of Egypt will elect 249 members of the People's Assembly via a list, and 249 via single-member districts. If 1/3 of the candidates are under a single-winner system, then the 80 million people of Egypt will elect 166 people as individual candidates. That means that the electoral districts will be divided among 166 candidates. The electoral districts will be larger, which will favor established, wealthy, well-known candidates, (NDP and MB) and disadvantage candidates from new parties.

Further, this mysterious workers and farmers requirement was explained to me. To be named a "worker" or a "farmer" you have to get a certificate which acknowledges you as such from the Egyptian government. This is essentially a back door way of favoring local notables, people like the sherif, or omda, or people from wealthy families.

My colleague is Samer Soliman, of the Social Democratic Party of Egypt. 

Egyptian Social Democratic Party

According to Al Masry Al Youm today, "Under Mubarak, all candidates ran as individuals in an electoral system which critics argued ensured solid majorities for the NDP." (Ahmed Zaki Osman, "Military seeking to hamstring parliament through elections law amendments," Al Masry Al Youm, September 27, 2011) Thus, the list based system is a partial victory for new parties.

Around eight political parties established by members of the former regime have been granted legal status.

Confusion over electoral districts

Dear readers

I would be lying if I said I understood all the fine points of Egyptian election laws, but Allah knows I am trying!

Again, on September 21, 2011, Assistant Defense Minister Mamdough Shahin announced that the parliamentary elections will be held as scheduled, under a mixed system of 50 percent list-based and 50 percent single-winner candidacies. People's Assembly elections will be held separately from those of the Shura Council. The People's Assembly elections will be held at the end of November over three stages of two weeks each. 

Somehow, Egyptian law as recently passed by the SCAF requires that 50 percent of parliament should be made up of farmers and workers. I like this sentiment. I think it is great. But as an academic, I wonder who decides exactly who is a farmer or a worker? Who makes the decision? What is the test? Are we looking for small farmers, fellaheen, or will anyone with land under cultivation do? This creates a post-modernist dilemma for me? In whose hands does the decisionmaking lie?

Further, there is unhappiness over electoral districts. There is a military backed electoral law regarding the mapping of electoral districts. Many parties are unhappy with it, including Egypt Freedom, Egyptian Social Democratic Party, Free Egyptians and Wasat party. The law, apparently, seems to help the old NDP. Once I understand what the law actually says, I will be sure to let you know.

The 25 January Revolution Youth Coalition as well as the Muslim Brotherhood-led Democratic Alliance for Egypt may announce their lists of candidates before the parliamentary poll scheduled for November.

Adel al Morsy, head of the Military Judicial Authority, has announced that the State of Emergency will continue until June 30, 2012.