Showing posts with label Egyptian political parties. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Egyptian political parties. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Status of women representatives in second round

Dear readers

When I started this project of tracking what parties were running what women, I did not think it would be that useful. I felt like I was spinning my wheels and wasting time to satisfy my own personal curiosity. Several hours in, I just could not stop myself.  But now, the hard work is paying off. See my post here Which Egyptian Parties Represent Women?

My amazing research assistant Heba Galal and I have translated the electoral lists of various parties, which allows us to evaluate the chances that women will be elected. Our first cut was to see which parties had women in the top half of their lists. i.e. if they are running 8 people on the list, do they women in slots 1-4. If they are running 12 people on the list, do they have women in slots 1-6, and so forth.  A second cut is to see how many women total the parties are running. That may tell you something about the overall attitude of women in the party.

No women have been elected from the single winner system. I repeat, not one single woman has won as an independent.

In a counterintuitive result, there may be some women from the lists, and they are almost absolutely certain to be from the Muslim Brotherhood affiliated Freedom and Justice party. The FJP did so well in these elections, that in many locations, they got down to number 4 on their list, which means some women will be elected. It is also possible that women could be elected from Al Wafd. Their lists are not in good shape though, which makes it very difficult to analyze them, but I will try.

Recap:

The People's Assembly Elections are being run in the following order.

Stage 1:Cairo, Fayoum, Port Said, Damietta, Alexandria, Kafr el-Sheikh, Assiut, Luxor, Red Sea
Stage 2:Giza, Beni Suef, Menoufiya, Sharqiya, Ismailia, Suez, Beheira, Sohag, Aswan
Stage 3:Minya, Qalubiya, Gharbiya, Dakhaliya, North Sinai, South Sinai, Marsa Matruh, Qena, New Valley

  • El Adl seems to have a fairly high number of women on their lists, in my opinion. They are running 24 women out of 13 lists. As many as 8 women are near the top of the lists.
  • The Muslim Brotherhood seems to have slightly more than the bare minimum of women on their lists. They are running 38 women out of 37 lists analyzed. Two women are near top of the lists. (9 lists still need to be analyzed.)
  • It is rumored that some of the women on Al Nour's list are fakes, and are just the mothers or the sisters of party members, to meet the legal requirement. All women on the Al Nour list are on the bottom two slots.
  • The Egyptian Bloc: On 42 lists, they have 43 women. 9 women are at the top of their lists.
  • The published lists by Al Wafd are not in good shape. Accordingly, we are still analyzing them as quickly as possible. Women from Al Wafd might make it if they are ranked 1 or 2.
Here is a preliminary analysis of where women have a chance. A more fine grained analysis will follow.

FJP
(using information from their official website)
People's Assembly

6. Giza, the second list. One woman, Azza Mohamed Ibrahim Elgref, Rank 4 out of 10 candidates.
The FJP won 4 Seats on Giza list 2.
11. Dakhalia, the initial list. One woman, Siham Abdel-Latif Jamal, Rank 2 out of 8.
24. Qalubiya, the initial list, one woman, Huda Abdullah Abul Qadr, rank 4 out of 4.
25. Qalubiya, the second list, one woman, Hoda Abdel-Rahman Mohammed Anwar, Rank 3 out of 8.
27. New Valley, one woman, Mervat Said Abdo, Rank 4 out of 4.
30. South Sinai, one woman, Amira Abdel Hamid Taha, rank 4 out of 4.
31. Damietta, two women, Fakry Adham Abdel Razak, Etmaad Mohamed Zagloul, rank 3 and 5 out of 8.FJP won 3 seats on the first Damietta list.
34. North Sinai, one woman, Inas Mustafa Hamdan, rank 4 of 4.
35. Qena, one woman, Suhair Badri, rank 4 of 4.


Al Wafd 
(using information from http://elections.masreat.com)
People's Assembly

1. Aswan, Waheda Shakely, ranked 1 out of 12, (this list seems flawed because it has more than 12 people on it.)
2. Giza, Maha Ahmed Omar Kashif, ranked 1 out of 12 (again, this list seems flawed because it has too many people on it)
3. Cairo, Wasaf Ali Ali, ranked 1 out of 12. (flawed list)
4. Helwan, Sherin Mohammad Hatata, ranked  2 out of 12 (flawed list)
5. Red Sea Governorate, Aza Abd El Fattah Ahmed 1 out of 12. (5 women total on this list)

Overview of Egyptian Elections after Stage 2 December 28

Dear readers

Data from Jadaliyya. I have reorganized and done some basic analysis.

322 Seats Total have been elected so far.

Islamist parties
FJP=47.20%              152 Seats
Al Nour=24.22%         78 Seats

Secular and Liberal Parties
Al Wafd=7.76%           25 Seats
Eg. Bloc=7.45%           24 Seats
Rev. Cont.=2.17%          7 Seats
Al Adl=0.62%                2 Seats

Moderate Parties
Al Wasat=2.17%           7 Seats
RDP=2.17%                  7 Seats

Former NDP
Eg. Citizen=1.24%          4 Seats
National of Eg.=1.24%    4 Seats
Freedom Party=0.31%     1 Seat

Various Independents
New Independents           1 Seat                             
Arab Eg. Union               1 Seat
Union                              1 Seat
Independents                   8 Seats

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Egypt Elections Update, Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Egyptian campaign posters in Luxor in November. Photo by the author.

If you are looking for comprehensive election results, check here.  Jaadaliya Election Results

http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/3331/egyptian-elections_preliminary-results_updated-

Here are some choice selections from their pages. I added some description of the parties on the bottom chart.


Seat Breakdown (as of Sunday 4 December*)
Party/Coalition Party-list Seats Single-Winner Seats  Total
Freedom and Justice** 40  42 (40%)
Al-Nour*** 26  26 (25%)
Egyptian Bloc 13  13 (12%)
Al-Wafd  10  10 (9%)
Revolution Continues 1 5 (4%)
Al-Wasat  4 0 4 (3%)
Reform and Development  2 0 2
National Party of Egypt 1 0 1
Egyptian Citizen 1 0 1
Freedom  1 0 1
 Independents  - 1 1
 Total  102  106 
Seats Remaining 230  162  392
                                                                                      

*   Includes all but Cairo's party-list district #1 (Al-Sahel voters are scheduled to re-vote on January 10-11).

** Freedom and Justice list includes candidates from the parties of the "Democratic Alliance for Egypt"

*** Al-Nour's list includes candidates from the parties of the "Islamist Bloc"


Nationwide Vote for Party Coalition Lists (as of December 14th)

Party/Coalition List Votes % Votes
Freedom and Justice* (Islamist/right) 3565092 36.62321885
Al-Nour** (Islamist/far right) 237171324.3639615
Egyptian Bloc (liberal/left) 1299819 13.35268647
Al-Wafd (old school liberal) 690077 7.088973018
Al-Wasat (Islamist/moderate) 415590 4.269242848
Revolution Continues (left) 335947 3.451092006
Reform and Development (no idea!?) 185138 1.901872235
National Party of Egypt (NDP) 153429 1.576134317
Freedom (NDP) 136784 1.405144767
Adl (liberal/3rd way) 76769 0.788627022

Egypt elections beyond ideology: A return to common sense politics

 

Egypt elections beyond ideology: A return to common sense politics
By   Hamid Eltgani Ali and Warigia Bowman December 13, 2011, 5:00 pm



The first round of Egyptian parliamentary elections is drawing to a close, but in another sense, Egyptian multi-party politics is just beginning. After a partially successful revolution, Egypt is now on a crash course to multi-party democracy. Other countries that have gone through major political transitions from dictatorship to democracy generally have had decades to make the transition. The question many Western observers are asking now is what shape will Egypt’s nascent democracy take? Will it more closely resemble the secular Turkey, or the more theocratic Iran?

 As news reports have indicated, the results of the first round of elections have been discouraging for those who support a secular state in Egypt. Based on our quantitative analysis of publicly available ex post election data after the first round of voting, the Islamists performed exceptionally well in comparatively rural areas with low political capital such as Fayoum and Luxor.

By contrast, liberal and moderate parties, taken altogether, won only 27 percent of total votes and performed relatively well in highly urbanized areas of high political capital like Cairo, Alexandria and Port Said. Liberal candidates are likely to do worse in the second and third rounds of voting which will be held in parts of rural Egypt that are likely to be less progressive and politically sophisticated than Cairo, the Red Sea and The Delta.

Given results in the first round of the Egyptian elections, what lessons can be learned?

Given what we  have seen in the first round of the Egyptian elections,  what lessons can be learned? First of all, liberal parties made a serious miscalculation by running numerous separate lists. Many of the parties in the Revolution Continues Alliance (RCA) withdrew from the Bloc allegedly due to inter-party conflicts. The only liberal party that has done well in the elections has been The Egyptian Bloc, which has captured 14 percent of the available seats thus far. Liberal parties are doing even worse under the single-winner system. In the first round of runoffs, 47 of the Muslim Brotherhood’s candidates (Freedom and Justice Party) made it to the runoffs. The far right Islamist party Al Nour has secured 27 candidates in the first round of runoffs. By contrast, the Egyptian Bloc only had 9 candidates in runoffs. The liberal and moderate parties need to resolve their differences and work as a unit to gain any seats.

The second lesson to be learned is that Egyptians have not yet embraced an ideological approach to politics. The conservative right and liberal left categories which categorize Europe simply do not apply well here, accordingly labels and ideologies are not useful campaign tools. Rather, parties can more easily be divided along a crucial axis: support for a secular state, or support for a religious (Islamic) state. The second lesson to be learned here, then, all parties must figure out what matters to them and campaign on issues,  like how they will reduce unemployement, not ideologies. The Egyptian people do not know what “social justice,” means yet. But they do know what a hungry stomach feels like.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

No Fear

I had a very interesting interview with one of the founding members of the Social Democratic Party today.

She said a few things I found fascinating. She mentioned that she got into politics through the Kefaya movement ("Enough"), which first emerged in around 2004. I found it interesting that she learned about the movement in part through their website and an opposition chat room. Further, she mentioned that she actually registered for the SDP by filling out an application on their website. I find it intriguing how much these new parties used information technology.

I asked her if she was worried that the government would track her if she signed up online. She said, that in the time of the Kefaya, in the time before the Revolution, she was afraid. Since the Revolution, she is no longer afraid. She said that in this post-revolutionary period, "fear is over," and she did not hesitate to become politically active.

~WMB

Friday, December 2, 2011

Very preliminary Election Outcomes

Updated December 6, 10:54 a.m.

This post will summarize election outcomes in an easy to read format. The best way to find up the minute info on this is to look here. Jaadaliya Election Results . 

The value added of looking here is that I just give you the bare facts. It is a bit easier to read.

According to Jaadaliya, "Exit polls and preliminary vote count show that the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists are expected to finish first and second in the first phase with the liberal Egyptian Bloc a distant third."

Votes will supposedly be announced tonight, although they said that yesterday too. Worried laughter . . .
  • No official results as of Sunday, results and percentages are still trickling in . . . .
  • Also, apparently (as of Sunday December 4, 2011) there is some confusion with what to do when the extra votes. i.e. how will the seats be allocated for parties who make the cutoff, but get few votes.
  • As of Tuesday December 6, 2011, there was very low turnout for the runoffs last night. One of my students works for the UN observation team and she noted this.
  • This cool chart was published by the Arabist on Saturday. It may no longer be up to date, but gives some preliminary visuals. Chart for Round One of the Elections

My latest information is that no woman has been elected in the first round.

I will get results up as fast as I can. Lists are completed, still working on single winners. All results are not final. Runoffs for first leg of single-winner tomorrow. (Monday, December 5)


Cairo (54 seats) 

Cairo List 1 (10 Seats) 
FJP (39%)=4 Seats

Egyptian Bloc(23.5%)=3 Seats
Al Nour (5.36%)=1seat 
Al Wafd (6.23%)=1 seat

Cairo List 2 (8 Seats)
FJP(35.65%)=3
Egyptian Bloc(26.22%)=2
Al Nour(11.1%)=1
Al Wafd(7.22%)=1
Al Wasat(5.76%)=1


Cairo List 3 (Qasr al Nil)(8 Seats)
FJP(39%)=3
Egyptian Bloc(18.33%)=2
Wafd(14.67%)=1
Nour(14.52%)=1
RCA(3.45%)=1


Cairo List 4 (Helwan)(10 Seats)
FJP(40.48%)=4
Nour(19.35%)=2
Egyptian Bloc(13.14%)=1
Al Wafd(7.32%)=1
Revolution Continue(3.62%)=1
Al Wasat(3.39%)=1

 
Cairo Single Winner Seats. 

#1 : Egyptian Bloc vs. FJP
#2 : FJP vs. Egyptian Block (Yeah!)
#3 : FJP vs. El Adl, Al Nour (wow!) or Independent.
#4:  Heliopolis: Amr Hamzawy with 53% of the vote (Mabruk!) Former NDP vs. FJP (wow! Scary) 
#5: FJP vs. Al Nour (Yikes!)
#6:  FJP vs. Egyptian Bloc, Gamila Ismail did not make it.
#7:  FJP vs. Al Nour or former NDP. (Sigh)
#8: FJP vs.FJP.
#9:  Mostafa Bakry wins, Independent. Ramadan Omar wins, FJP.

Alexandria (24 Seats) 

Alexandria List #1 (6 Seats) 


FJP (34.41%)=2
Al Nour (29.85%)=2
Egyptian Bloc (16.02%)=1
Wafd (6.40%)=1




Alexandria List #2(10 Seats)

FJP (35.32%)=4
Al Nour (32.96%)=3
Revolution Continues (10%)=1
Egyptian Bloc  (6.15%)=1
Al Wafd(5.55%)=1


Alexandria single winner Seats
working on this . . . .





Damietta (12 seats) 


Damietta List
FJP
Al Nour
Al Wasat

Kafr Al Sheikh (18 Seats)

FJP (31%)
Al Nour (22%)
Al Wafd (15%)
Union
National Party  (NDP)
Democratic Front
Freedom Party (NDP)
Egyptian Citizen (NDP)


Fayoum (18 Seats) 
Fayoum List 1
FJP
Al Nour
Freedom Party(NDP)
Revolution Continues


Fayoum List 2
FJP(2Seats)
Al Nour (near tie) (2 Seats)
Egyptian Bloc (no seats)


Port Said (6 Seats) 
Port Said List 
FJP=32% (2 Seats)
Al Nour=20% (1 Seat)
Al Wafd=14%
Al Wasat=13%


Red Sea (6 Seats)
Red Sea List 
FJP=35% (2 Seats)
Egyptian Bloc=17% (One Seat)
Egyptian Citizen (NDP)= 14% (One Seat)
Al Wafd=10%
Freedom Party (NDP)=8%
Al Wasat=6%
Revolution Continues=4%

Assiut (24 Seats)
Assiut List 1
FJP=44%
Al Nour=23%
Egyptian Bloc=22%
Wafd
Nasserist
Peace
Wasat



Assiut List 2
FJP > 40%
Al Nour
Egyptian Bloc



Luxor(6 seats)
Luxor List 
FJP=40%
Al Nour
Egyptian Bloc
Al Wafd


Luxor Single Winner (Runoff)

1.Independent
2.FJP/NDP
3.FJP


Thursday, November 17, 2011

What seats are Egyptian political blocs running for?

There are 46 electoral districts for party based lists in Egypt.  There are 83 districts covered by the individual single-winner electoral system.
 
There are four main electoral blocs, which span the political spectrum. Although Egypt does have a left, I believe it is inaccurate, in my view, to say it has a "right," as that concept is understood in Europe. It has a secular side and a more fundamentalist religious side.

Left/Liberal

Egyptian Bloc: Free Egyptians (Free Enterprise), Egyptian Social Democratic Party, Tagmmu Party (old school leftist)
The Revolution Continues: Socialist Popular Alliance Party, Egyptian Socialist Party, Egypt Freedom (Amr Hamzawy), Equality and Development, Egyptian Current, Revolution Youth Coalition

Right/Religious

Democratic Alliance: (12 parties) Muslim Brotherhood, Ghad Party, Al-Karama (Nasserist)
Islamist Alliance: Nour Party (Salafis), Asala, the Salafist Current, the Construction and Development Party (Al-Jamaa Al-Islamiya)
  
What seats are the blocs running for? 

Given that there are 46 party list districts, if a party is running in more districts than this, it means they are running individual candidates. 

The Egyptian Bloc will run 233 candidates in unified electoral lists, to contest seats in 64 electoral districts. 10 % Tagammu, 40% SDP, 50 % Free Egyptians.


The Revolution Continues will field 300 candidates in 34 electoral districts. 250 candidates will run on unified electoral lists, and 34 for the people's assembly will run on independent seats, and 26 for the Shura Council will run independently.

The Democratic Alliance  (Islamists) will field 498 candidates and is competing in all electoral districts around the country.The Democratic Alliance will be running on unified lists in all electoral districts across the countries. Seats will be divided based on the relative political weight of each party, and how much it contributes to the success of the overall list. FJP candidates make up 70 percents of the slots on the unified lists for the democratic alliance. FJP candidates make up 90 percent of the candidates for the independent seats. 

The Wafd Party has fielded 332 list-based candidates in 46 electoral constituencies, and 96 individual candidates in 83 constituencies for the upcoming elections.  Four former members of the NDP were nominated by the Wafd in the Red Sea, Qena, Minya and Sharqiya.

Wasat (Moderate Islamist/Brotherhood Offshoot) will field 402 candidates. 332 will be on party lists. 70 will run as independents.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Which Egyptian parties represent women and Copts and young people?

Post updated on December 7, 2011

The purpose of this post is to compile research on which Egyptian parties represent women and Copts and young people.

Women in Egypt have historically been politically marginalized. Interviews conducted with two prominent Egyptian women, one journalist, one UN staff, indicated their concern that women would take between 1% and 3% of seats in People's Assembly and the Shura in this first election. According to UN Women, " In the first stage, 2366 candidates are competing over the individual seats including 149 women and 2217 men, which mean that women represent (6.2%) only of the total number of candidates running on the 56 individual seats for the 9 governorates."

The old parliament was largely powerless. It did have a quota for women. The new electoral system does not have a quota. However,  the new electoral law says that each proportional list must have at least one woman. (Yasmine Fathi, "Will women make it into Egypt's upcoming Parliament?," Ahram Online,  October 20, 2011.) Updated November 22, 2011.

Please remember that the lower you are on a list, the less likely you are to get elected. Accordingly, it is fair to say that parties which place women high on a list, particularly in slots 1-3, are really interested in getting them elected. Conversely, if the women are at the very bottom of the list, the party may be uninterested in getting them elected.

This just in. We (Myself and Heba Galal, my amazing student) have gone through the facebook pages of MB, El Adl and Al Nour, and seen where they have women on their lists. I have highlighted lists where women are in the top half, and therefore have a great chance of winning. This is what we have found. Updated November 30th, 2011. 12:23 a.m.

  • El Adl seems to have a fairly high number of women on their lists, in my opinion. They are running 24 women out of 13 lists. As many as 8 women are near the top of the lists. El Adl also has some Christians.
  • The Muslim Brotherhood seems to have slightly more than the bare minimum of women on their lists. They are running 38 women out of 37 lists analyzed. Two women are near top of the lists. (9 lists still need to be analyzed.)
  • It is rumored that some of the women on Al Nour's list are fakes, and are just the mothers or the sisters of party members, to meet the legal requirement. 
  • The Egyptian Bloc: On 42 lists, they have 43 women. 9 women are at the top of their lists.The Bloc also has many Christians.

Freedom and Justice Party/Muslim Brotherhood. www.facebook.com/FJParty.Official?sk=app_10442206389
The MB is incredibly organized, and has almost all of their candidates listed on their facebook page. Almost all of their list have at least one woman. In general, the women are in the bottom half or bottom third of the lists. However, occasionally, a woman is in a high position.

List (People's Assembly) (Two women at top of Lists)

1.Cairo. The initial list. One woman, Abeer Hussein Osman. Rank, 9 out of 10 candidates.
2. Cairo. The second list. One woman, Manal Mohammed Abu Hassan, Rank 5 out of 8 candidates.
3. Cairo. The third list. One woman, Nagva Abdel Mawla, Rank 6 out of 8 candidates.
4. Cairo. The fourth list. One woman, Omaima full Abdul Hai, Rank 5 out of 10 candidates.
5. Giza. The initial list. One woman, Samah Said Ahmed Abdel Khalek, Rank 9 out of 10 candidates.
6. Giza, the second list. One woman, Azza Mohamed Ibrahim Elgref, Rank 4 out of 10 candidates.
7. Alexandria. The initial list. One woman, Bushra Mohamed Alsmona, Rank 3 out of 6 candidates.
8. Alexandria. The second list. One woman, Khadija Mohamed Fahmy, Rank 9 out of 10 candidates.
9. Beheira. The initial list. One woman, Manal Ismail, Rank 5 out of 12.
10. Beheir. The second list. One woman, Hafsa Atef Schumann, Rank 7 out of 8.
11. Dakhalia, the initial list. One woman, Siham Abdel-Latif Jamal, Rank 2 out of 8.
12. Dakhalia, the second list. One woman, Noha Mohram Karam Ibrahim Jaballah, Rank 7 out of 8.
13. Dakhalia, the third list. One woman, Professor Faiza Ahmed, Rank 7 out of 8.
14. Gharbia, the initial list. One woman, Abeer Adel Abbas El Menshawi, Rank 6 out of 10.
15. Gharbia, the second list. One woman, Hanan Hamdi Hassan Samak, Rank 7 out of 10.
16. Assiut, the initial list. One woman, Fatima Abdul Rahim Abdul Rahman, Rank 7 out of 8.
17. Assiut, the second list. One woman, Entsar Mahmoud Sayed ElSherif, Rank 7 out of 8.
18. Ismailia, One woman, Zeinab Ali Mustafa, Rank 3 out of 4.
19. Suez, One woman, Azza Ismail Mohammed, Rank 3 out of 4.
20. Sharqia, the initial list, One woman, Wegaa Hisham Kabeel, rank 10 out of 10.
21. Sharqia, the second list, one woman, Hana El Said Saleh Hassanin, rank 10 out of 10.
22. Fayoum, the initial list, one woman, Nadia Tawfiq Suleiman Khalil, rank 8 out of 8.
23. Fayoum, the second list, one woman, Ahalam Eid Barakat, rank 4 out of 4.
24. Qalubiya, the initial list, one woman, Huda Abdullah Abul Qadr, rank 4 out of 4.
25. Qalubiya, the second list, one woman, Hoda Abdel-Rahman Mohammed Anwar, Rank 3 out of 8.
26. Menoufia, one woman, Nabila Ali Moussa Motweh, rank 8 out of 8.
27. New Valley, one woman, Mervat Said Abdo, Rank 4 out of 4.
28. Beni Suef, one woman, Fatima Mahmoud Marzouk, Rank 4 out of 8.
29. Port Said, one woman, Sahar Mohamed Khudairi, rank 3 out of 4.
30. South Sinai, one woman, Amira Abdel Hamid Taha, rank 4 out of 4.
31. Damietta, two women, Fakry Adham Abdel Razak, Etmaad Mohamed Zagloul, rank 3 and 5 out of 8.
32. Sohag, the initial list, one woman, Ebtahag Ahmed Hassanein, rank 9 out of 12.
33. Sohag, the second list, one woman, Salwa Mohammed Abdul Karim, rank 8 of 8.
34. North Sinai, one woman, Inas Mustafa Hamdan, rank 4 of 4.
35. Qena, one woman, Suhair Badri, rank 4 of 4.
36.Kafr el sheikh, initial list, one woman, Huda Safan, rank 8 of 8.
37. Kafr el shikh, initial list, one woman, Fahima Mansour, rank 4 of 4.

Missing Data for MB on 9 districts for electoral party lists.

Al Nour Party/Salafis, Al Nour Party Facebook Page

No women in top half of lists analyzed. 

List (people's assembly)
East of Cairo, one woman,  8 out of 8.
South of Cairo, no women indicated.
West of Cairo, one woman, 7 of 8.
Aswan, one woman, 4 of 4.
Luxor, one woman, 4 of 4.
Qena, one woman, 4 of 4.
Qena list 2, one woman, 8 of 8.
Sohag, two women, 10 and 12 of 12.
Sohag, list 2, one woman, 8 of 8.
Assiut list 1, one woman, 8 of 8.
Assiut list 2, one woman, 8 of 8.
Minya list 1, one woman, 8 of 8.
Minya list 2, one woman, 8 of 8.
Beni Suef, one woman, 7 of 8.
Fayoum, one woman, 8 of 8.
New Valley, one woman, 4 of 4.
Ismailia, (no women?)
Port Said, one woman, 4 of 4.
Suex, one woman, 4 of 4.
Damietta, one woman, 8 of 8.
Dakhalia, list 1, one woman, 8 of 8.
Dakhalia, list 2, one woman 8 of 8
Dakhalia list 3, one woman 8 of 8.
Alexandria, list 1, one woman, 6 of 6.
Alexandria list 2, one woman, 10 of 10.
Beheiria, one woman, 12 of 12.

Individuals
Nasr City, one woman
South area of Egypt, no women
Zeinab, no women
Maadi, no women

El Adl party, El Adl Webpage 

Lists (8 women at top of lists)


1. Central Cairo List, two women, one Christian ranks 3,4,5, out of 8. 
2. South Cairo List, one woman, rank 5 of 10.
3. East Cairo List, one woman, one Christian, rank 4 and 7 of 10.
4. Ghamra, one woman, 2 out of 8.
5. East Alexandria, one woman, 3 out of 6.
6. Alexandria, Shura Council, one woman, 4 out of 4.
7. Minya Governorate, one woman 2 out of 8. 
8. East Alexandria, one woman 3 out of 6.
9. Matrouh, one woman, 4 out of 4. 
10. Gharbia, four singles, all men.
11. Gharbia, Mahalla, two women, 5 and 6 out of 10.
12. Gharbia, Tanta, one woman, 10 out of 10.
13. Qena, North, one woman, 3 out of 3.
14. Qena, South, one woman, one out of 8.
15. Red Sea, one woman, 3 out of 4.
16. Beni Suef, one woman, 4 out of 8.
17. Sohag, one woman 4 out of 8.
18. Sharqia, Abu Kabir, one woman, 9 out of 9.
19. Sharqia, Zagazig, one woman, 3 out of 10. 
20. Damietta, one woman, 7 out of 10.  
21. Baheria, Damanhur (not sure about this location) one Christian, one woman, 6 and 11 out of 12. Suez, one woman, 4 out of 4. 
13. Fayoum, one woman, 2 out of 4. 


List Shura Council  (no women in top half of lists)

Alexandria, one woman, 4 out of 4.
Matrough, one woman, 3 out of 4.
Gharbia, Mahalla, one woman, 4 out of 4.
Beni Suef, one woman, 3 out of 4.
Sharqia, one woman, 3 out of 4.

Individuals (3 women)

Department of Osim, a man, People's Assembly 
South Giza, a man, Shura Council
North Giza, a woman, Shura Council.
Minya Governorate, Four candidates, no women, three people's assembly, one Shura council.
Dakhalia Governorate, two candidates, no women, two People's Assembly
East Alexandria, two men, people's assembly
Alexandria, one man, Shura Council.
Gharbia, Mahalla, one man.
Minya, three men for people's assembly.
Minya, one man, Shura council.
Sharqia, two men, people's assembly
Qalubiya, one woman, Shura Council.
Damietta, one man, People's assembly.
Beheria, four men, no women, people's assembly. 
Ismailia, one woman, People's assembly. One man, Shura council.


The Egyptian Bloc ("Kotla": Free Egyptians, SDP and Tagamoo)
Egyptian Social Democratic Party 
The Free Egyptians Party

We examined both the SDP versions of the lists and the Free Egyptian version. They are close but not identical. The final lists have to be the same, since they are running as a bloc. Each party can choose to run whomever they want as individuals.

Lists (9 women at top of lists)

1. East Cairo. Two Christians, one woman. Rank 3 (C); 6(W);7(C) out of 7.
2. Downtown Cairo. One woman, one Christian. Rank 5 (W); 6(C) out of 9.
3. Cairo El Sahel. Three Christians, one woman. Rank 1(C); 4(C); 8(W); 9(C) out of 10.
4. South Cairo. One woman, one Christian. Rank 5(W); 8(C) out of 9.
5. Giza First List. Out of 10. Two Christians, One woman. Ranks 5(C); 6(C); 10(W).
6. Giza Second List. Out of 10. One Christian, one woman. Ranks 5(C) and 7(W).
7. Qaliubiya First List.  Out of 4. One woman. Rank 3.
8. Qaliubiya . Second List. Out of 8. One Christian, one woman. Rank 2(C) and 5(W).
9. Alexandria, First List. Out of 6. One woman, rank 3.
10. Alexandria, Second List. Out of 10. One Christian, one woman. Rand 8(C) and 9(W).
11. Port Said First List. Out of Four. No women.(Mistake?)
12. Ismailia. Out of 4. One woman. Rank 2.
13. Suez. Out of 4. One Christian, one woman, Rank 1(C) and 3(W).
14. Sharqia. First List. Out of 10. One woman, two Christians. Rank 3(W) ; 6(C) and 10(C).
15. Sharqia. Second List. Out of 10. Two women, one Christian. Rank 3(C); 6(W) and 10(W)
16. Dakhalia. First List. Out of 8. one woman, rank 9.
17. Dakhalia Second List. Out of 8. One Christian, one woman, rank 8(C) and 9(W).
18. Dakhalia Third List. Out of 8. one woman. Rank 4. 
19. Damietta. Out of 8. one woman. Rank 4.
20. Kafr El Sheikh. First List. Out of 9. One woman. Rank 7.
21. Kafr El Sheikh. Second List. Out of 4. One woman. Rank 4.
22. Gharbia. First List. Out of 10. One Christian, one woman. Rank 3(C) and 5(W)
23. Gharbia. Second List. Out of 10. One woman. Rank 10.
24. Menoufia. One Christian, two women. Out of 8. Ranks 3(C); 7(W) and 9(W)
25. Beheira. First List. Out of 10. One Christian. One woman. Ranks 1(C) and 9(W).
26. Beheira. Second List. Out of 8. One woman, one Christian. Ranks 2(W) and 3(C).
27. Fayoum. First List. Out of 10. One woman. Rank 9.
28. Fayoum. Second List. Out of 5. One woman, one Christian. Ranks 4(W) and 5(C).
29. Beni Suef. Out of 4. One woman. Rank 2.
30. Manyia. First List. Out of 8. Two Christians. Ranks 3 and 5.(mistake)
31. Manyia. Second List. Out of 8. One Christian woman. Rank 8.
32. Assiut. First List. Out of 9.  One Christian, one woman. Rank 2(C) and Rank 7(W).
33. Assiut. Second List. Out of 9. Two women. Ranks 2 and 6.
34. Sohag. First List. Out of 10. One woman. Rank 8.
35. Qena. Out of 8. One woman, Rank 6.
36. Aswan. Out of 4. One woman. Rank 3.
37. Luxor. Out of 4. One Christian, one woman. Ranks, 3(C) and 4(W).
38. Marsa Matrouh. Out of 4. One woman, rank 4.
39. New Valley, out of 4. One woman, rank 3.
40. Red Sea Governorate, out of 4. One woman, rank 3.
41. North Sinai Governorate, Out of 4. two women, ranks 3 and 4.
42. South Sinai Governorate, out of 4. one woman, rank 3.

Completed November 30th, 2011. Need to recheck for Christian names. Need to see if there are four lists that I missed. 

Individuals (People's Assembly)  (three women)

Free Egyptians
1st District Cairo. two men, one of them is Christian.
2d District Cairo. A man.
3rd District Cairo. A man.
4th District Cairo. Two men.
5th District Cairo. one man. One Christian woman.
6th District Cairo. A man.
7th District Cairo. Two men.
8th District Cairo. Two men.
9th District Cairo. One Christian woman. One man. 
 First district Giza. Three men. 
Second district Giza. One man. 
Third district Giza. One man. 
Fifth District Giza, two men. 
First District Alexandria two men. 
Second district Alexandria, two men. 
Third district Alexandria, two men. 
Fourth district Alexandira, two Christian men. 
First District Fayoum, one man. 
First district Port Said, one man. 
First district Ismailia, two men. 
First district Suez, three men. 
First district Sharqia, two men. 
Fifth district Sharqia, two men. 
First district Dakhalia, two men. 
Second district Dakhalia, one man. 
Third district Dakhalia, one man. 
Fourth district Dakhalia, one woman. 
Fifth district Dakhalia, two men, one is Christian. 
Sixth district Dakhalia, one man. 
First District Damietta, two men.
Second district Damietta, two men.
First district Kafr El Sheikh, one man
First district South Sinai, two men
Marsa Matrouh, two men, one is Christian.
Aswan, two men, one is Christian.
Qena (three districts) five men.
Sohag (four districts) six men.
Second district Assiut, one man.
First district Minya, two men.
Third district Minya, one Christian man.
Second district Beni Suef, one man.
Third district Beni Suef, one Christian man.
First district Beheira, two men, one is Christian.
Second district Beheira, three men.
Third district Behira, two men
Fourth district Beheira, one man
Fifth district Beheira, one man
First district Menoufia, three men.
Second district Menoufia, three men.
Third district Menoufia, one man.
Fourth district Menoufia, one man.
First district Gharbia, three men.
Third district Gharbia, one man.
Fourth district Gharbia, one man.

Individuals (Sura Council) 
Free Egyptians
Cairo, list one man
Luxor, individual one man.

The Revolution Continues Alliance 

Lists (10 women out of 10 lists)

1. Cairo 1st District. Two women, one Christian. Rank 3 (W); 4(W);6(C) out of 10.
2. Cairo 2d District. One woman, one Christian. Rank 3 (C); 5(W) out of 8.

3. Cairo Third District. One woman. Rank 1(W);  out of 8. 
4. Cairo 4th District. Two women. Rank 6(W); 10(W) out of 10.
 5. Alexandria, First List. Two women, Ranks 2 and 3.
6. Alexandria, Second List. Out of 10. Cannot see a female name (?)

7. Damietta. Cannot see a female name. (?)

8. Kafr El Sheikh. Second List. one woman. 3 out of 3. 
9. Red Sea. One woman. 3 out of 3. 
10. Assiut. First List. Two women, one Christian. Ranks 4(W); 5(W) and 6(C).



Individuals

No women.

This section was completed on December 7, 2011.

Other Parties 

The RCA has 100 candidates under 40. The RCA CLAIMS has two women at the top of its lists, including Mervat Said Hanafi in Helwan. This assertion was not confirmed in my review of the lists.  There are 45 women in the 32 lists of the Revolution continues, two women at the top of two lists and 4 women come second in the lists.

The SDP and Socialist Coalition also have platforms strongly supportive of women and religious freedom.

The Free Egyptians and the SDP ("Kotla") have sizable Copt participation. That is to be expected as they  are secular parties.

Wafd Party President al-Sayed al-Badawy says there are 37 Coptic candidates on the lists, and 87 female candidates on the lists. (As of October 29, 2011. The Wafd party will field at least two women in first place, including Margaret Azer in Nasry City, and Magda El Nawashi in Ismalia. (Fathi, "Women") 

Heba Fahmy of the Daily News says the the Democratic Alliance List (Islamists) includes 76 women and 2 Copts. About half of the female candidates are on the top of the list. (Our research indicates that this claim was NOT TRUE).

In a press conference, the Salafist Nour party said that fielding women candidates for parliament is "evil," and that the party will only field female candidates because they are forced to by law.  (Fathi, "Women")


~WMB

Last updated December 2, 2011. 6:35 p.m. Cairo time. 

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Political Parties, Lists and things it would be nice to know about the Upcoming Egyptian Parliamentary Elections


Photo Credit Al Ahram online. Popular Socialist Alliance Street Party.
 Dear readers

A reader has made the excellent request that I try to assemble information about all parties and lists in one page. This page will be a running assessment of the state of political life in Egypt as the parliamentary elections approach. I will try to update it as frequently as possible. This information may be available in one place at the Higher Elections Commission. However, it is all in Arabic. So I am creating a database from the Egyptian press. I am reading the English press, and my students the Arabic Press.

When will the elections be held?

Parliamentary elections  for the people's assembly are scheduled to start on November 28th, 2011. Following rounds of elections will be held on December 5th, and December 14th.

My students and I think that this system of having some governorates vote first, and then others follow is very problematic. Governorates in later elections will observe the results of the Cairo vote, and then change their votes accordingly. The outcomes of the earlier votes will affect the outcomes of the later votes.

The Shura Council Poll will being on January 29th, and end on March 11, 2012. 

How many seats are up for grabs? 

There are 498 seats in the People's Assembly which will be decided by election. Another 10 seats will be appointed, making the total number of seats in the People's Assembly 508.

Shura Council will have 180 elected seats, and 90 presidentially appointed seats, for a total of 270 seats in the upper house.One question is who will appoint the 90 seats in the absence of a President in Egypt.

How do the election stages work? 

The first stage of elections will be held between November 28th and the 5th of December. It includes Egypt's most popular governerates, Cairo and Alexandria, as well as Fayoum, Port Said, Damietta, Kafr Al-Sheikh, Assiut, Luxor and the Red Sea.

How many political parties are there in Egypt?

As many as 55 political parties, (as of November 14, 2011) most of which were formed after the January 25th Revolution, will compete in the parliamentary elections.

How many electoral districts are there in Egypt? 

There are 46 electoral districts covered by the party list system, and 83 districts covered by the individual candidacy system. Source: Gamal Assam El Din, "Egypt's Opposition Slams Proposed Electoral Changes," Ahram Online, September 26, 2011.

How many candidates have registered? 

Over 15,000 candidates have registered (As of October 29, 2011). Over 8600 have registered as independents. 6600 have registered for the People's Assembly. More than 2000 have registered for the Shura Council.

What are the main Alliances?

There are four main electoral blocs, which span the political spectrum. Although Egypt does have a left, I believe it is inaccurate, in my view, to say it has a "right," as that concept is understood in Europe. It has a secular side and a more fundamentalist religious side.

Left/Liberal

Egyptian Bloc: Free Egyptians (Free Enterprise), Egyptian Social Democratic Party, Tagmmu Party (old school leftist)
The Revolution Continues: Socialist Popular Alliance Party, Egyptian Socialist Party, Egypt Freedom (Amr Hamzawy), Equality and Development, Egyptian Current, Revolution Youth Coalition

Right/Religious

Democratic Alliance: (12 parties) Muslim Brotherhood, Ghad Party, Al-Karama (Nasserist)
Islamist Alliance: Nour Party (Salafis), Asala, the Salafist Current, the Construction and Development Party (Al-Jamaa Al-Islamiya)


What are some of the other parties in Egypt?


Overview of Political Parties from The Arabist.

Map of Egypt's Political Parties

Overview of Political Parties from the Carnegie Endowment.This is by Marina Ottaway, a respected academic with a lot of expertise on both Africa and the Middle East.

The Emerging Political Spectrum in Egypt

Here is information about parties I have gleaned from Newspapers.

Unity Party (Hossam Badrawy/NDP)
Wafd (liberal/NDP)

Egyptian Communist Party (not running/boycotting)
Egypt Above All Coalition (Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi)
El Adl (liberal/free enterprise)
Democratic Front Party (liberal)
Horreya Party (NDP cover)
Egyptian Citizen Party (NDP Cover)
National Egypt Party (NDP Cover)  (60 former NDP members)

Note: The High Administrative Court in Mansoura, Dakahlia governorate, has banned all members of the NDP from running for parliament. The General Electoral Committee in the governorate should reject the nomination papers of any candidate who was a member of NDP. It is not clear if the ruling will apply only in Dakhalia or across Egypt. According to Reuters, however, on November 15, 2011, Judge Magdy E-Agaty of the Higher Administrative Court has overturned the verdict. According to the Daily News Egypt, former NDP members have set up at least 6 parties. 

Will Expatriates be Allowed to Vote?

Maybe. Prime Minister Essam Sharaf held a meeting this weekend (November 10, 2011) with several cabinet members to discuss whether expatriates can vote. They may be allowed to vote in Egyptian embassies abroad.

Who Can Monitor Elections?

Only Egyptians can monitor elections. International election monitors will not be allowed. The Egyptian Council for Human Rights has received 7168 requests from NGOs to monitor elections.

What Kind of Electoral System will be Used?

The elections will combine a list system as well as a single winner system. One third of the seats will be based on a single winner system. Two thirds of the seats in the People's Assembly will be elected based on the closed list system. For more on the list system, read here. The Book of Lists.

The number of candidates on each party list differs. Voters will elect a fixed number of party based candidates depending on the voting district.

North Cairo will elect 10 party based deputies. Nasr City will elect eight. Cairo's four districts will return 36 MPs from the party list system.

The city is divided into nine districts which will produce 18 MPs from the single winner system. 

When Did Parties Gain Recognition? 
The Nour Party (Salafis) was founded in the coastal city of Alexandria. It won official recognition on June 12, 2011. The Islamist coalition could win as many as 30 percent of parliament's seats.

Okay, I will update this as time allows. ~WMB

Updated November 14, 2011 4:00 p.m.
Updated November 15, 2011 10:00 a.m.; 4:35 p.m.
Updated November 16, 2011 11;04 a.m. 

Sources
Al Masry Al Youm
Ahram Online
Al Ahram Weekly
Al Jazeera
New York Times
Washington Post
Interviews
AUC Today
Daily News Egypt
Carnegie Endowment