Showing posts with label Egyptian Bloc. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Egyptian Bloc. Show all posts

Monday, December 24, 2012

A Leader Worth Mourning: Samer Soliman (1968-2012)



As we prepare for Christmas, we celebrate a season of illumination, yet we also mourn many tragedies across the globe. This is appropriate, as Christmas is a time of endings as well as beginnings, and more subtly perhaps, it is also a continuation. The winter solstice is the shortest day of the year. It therefore represents an end as well as a beginning. The birth of Christ, over two thousand years ago represented the beginning of a new world religion, a continuation of revered Abrahamic beliefs, as well as the incorporation of ancient pagan, animist, and pharaonic traditions.

On this day, as we prepare for the 2013th celebration of the prophet whom we call Christ, I want to celebrate the life of one of the most influential politicians, activists, and scholars I have ever met: Dr. Samer Soliman. As I mourn his leaving this planet earth, I also am mourning the passage of a an ill-thought out, undemocratic constitution by the people of Egypt. I pray earnestly for the continuation of the Egyptian democratic opposition on this holy night. I ask all the people of Egypt, and of the world, to keep working to ensure that the promise of the Egyptian Revolution is fulfilled.

Samer would have wanted me to feel all of these feelings. Samer died after a battle with terminal cancer at the age of 44.  He was a Coptic Christian, who was nonetheless a fundamentally secular person. He was a journalist, and a brilliant scholar who wrote The Autumn of Dictatorship: Fiscal Crisis and Political Change in Egypt under Mubarak. He was a Professor of Political Economy at the American University in Cairo, and a founding member of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party. Ahram Online bids writer, activist Samer Soliman farewell.

Yet these dry facts, as impressive as they are, do not do justice to Samer's life. I do not have space to eulogize his life as a devoted spouse and family man to his beautiful wife Mary Shenoda. Nor is there room to discuss his stature as a professor at the American University in Cairo. Rather, I will focus on his work as an activist and a politician, since Egypt is facing a political crisis larger than perhaps any since the January 25th revolution itself. Farewell Samer Soliman (Egypt Independent)

Samer had a vision for the new Egypt.  Samer came from a political family, reared in Egypt's long tradition of secularism, which made Cairo the jewel of North Africa in the 1950s and early 1960s. He drew on these resources when he helped found the Social Democratic Party of Egypt shortly after the January 25th Revolution. I arrived in Cairo on January 25th, 2011, the first day of the revolution. While I tried to understand what was going on in my new home, Samer was on the barricades with students, farmers and workers, fighting valiantly to usher Egypt into a new era of democracy and human rights. He had long been involved in Egypt's historically strong labor movement. He reached out to the European social democratic parties, forged in Europe's struggle for democracy and labor rights in the 1920s, and revived after World War II in the 1950s.

Although Western news sources tend to focus on the Muslim Brotherhood, the Social Democratic Party, one of the few genuinely new post-revolutionary parties to emerge in Egypt, has made a huge mark in this time frame. In coalition with the Free Egyptians and Tagamoo, the SDP formed the Egyptian Bloc ("Kotla). In the new (now dissolved) parliament, the Bloc made an impressive showing for such a new party, winning 7 percent of the available seats. The Kotla became one of the top five parties, and the major party representing women, secularists, democrats, Nubians, bedouins, Copts, human rights advocates, and so many other underrepresented yet crucial segments of Egyptian society.

Inspired by Samer and the SDP, I decided that I needed to document the emergence of Egypt's emerging opposition. I spent countless hours speaking to Samer and other SDP members learning about this new political forces.  Samer spoke to my leadership class on the budget challenges facing the new Egyptian government. He kept the fire burning bright that Egypt could be a democratic country that had room for all constituents, and all citizens. He championed human rights, civil rights, democracy, and social justice.

What would Samer think of the recent constitutional referendum? He would be dissappointed, I am sure, perhaps even frustrated and angry, but he would tell us not to give up. Samer received his doctorate in political science from the prestigious Science Po in Paris, France. As an intellectual and a scholar, he would remind us that the French Revolution spanned decades. He would tell us that like our French compatriots centuries before, we must keep moving forward, clear in our objectives, inspired by the ideals of the Enlightenment.

I like to think that he would be cheered that the April 6 Movement is planning a march on the presidential palace to oppose this constitution that does not truly represent the Egyptian people. He would applaud the fact that after nearly a year of disunity, the Egyptian opposition has finally been galvanized. Indeed, the National Salvation Front, composed of the Constitution Party, Wafd, the Social Democratic Party, the popular current party, and the National Association for Change have stated that they will run for parliament on one list.

I believe that tonight, Samer looks down on us from Heaven. I pray that we remember the message of his life, and all take steps to ensure that his vision becomes a reality. I pray that the Egyptian opposition seizes the moment to unite, and move the revolution, and Egypt's democracy forward.

Merry Christmas Samer. Egypt has lost a great leader, a lion of a man. Like the Lion of Judah, we hear your call. May we reach the mountaintop that you pointed us toward. May the peace of Christ be with you, always.

Your comrade in arms, Warigia

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Recap of Election News for Egypt, February 1, 2012

Dear readers

The Egyptian election has a lot of moving parts. Accordingly, it has been a little bit hard to keep track of it all. To date, I have written 29 separate posts on the Egyptian elections.

So, what do we know?

Women 

One thing that I think is very interesting is how few women there are in the Egyptian Parliament. According to the best information I have, there are only 8 (eight) women in the Parliament so far. I assume that most of these women are from the Freedom and Justice Party or the Wafd, but I am trying to get names and specifics on this topic. Here is a good article on the same.

Ibtisam Barakat, Welcome to the New Egyptian Parliament, Jaadaliya,

In some of my previous posts, I had commented on which parties may or may not represent women. The lesson the liberal parties learned (I hope) is that if they really want a diverse party, they need to move minorities closer to the top of the list. It is my educated opinion [which does not make it a fact] that people actually voted for PARTIES, not individuals for the most part in this election. Here are some of my musings on the matter.

Which Egyptian Parties Represent Women?

No women elected to Egypt's parliament in first round

The Elections Aren't Over

Like the Egyptian Revolution, the Egyptian elections just go on, and on, and on, like the Energizer Bunny. The elections for the Egyptian parliament's lower house (People's Assembly) are not even over yet.

There are 498 possible seats. Only 427 have been decided. There are 71 seats remaining. As many as 45 seats will be determined by runoffs. They were supposed to have been held on January 10th, but I will have to look into that.

Shura Council Elections are (were) to be held on January 29th, February 14th, and March 4th in the same sequence as the PA elections were.

The date of the Presidential election has not been decided.

I was Wrong, but not far Wrong

Okay, how did I do on my election predictions?

Well, I predicted the FJP--the political wing of the MB--would win 30%. That was not correct. The FJP has to date won about 45.2%. So I was off by 15%. I predicted El Adl would win 15%. Oops! They only won less than 1%. I predicted that Revolution Continues would win 15%. I was very wrong there. They only won 2.34%. I predicted that the Egyptian Bloc would win 15%. They actually won 7.03%. So, I was wrong, but not crazy on that one. I totally missed the Salafi issue. Some of these errors are due to having lived in Cairo, and teaching at AUC, which is comparatively liberal and secular. Well, now we know.

More soon!~WMB







Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Egyptian Parliament convenes amid protests

Egypt's lower house of Parliament, the People's Assembly, convened yesterday, Monday the 23rd of January. It's opening was contentious, as protesters rallied to demand an end to military trials, a handover of power to civilians, and retribution for martyrs.

Doctors marched from the Doctors Syndicate on Qasr al Aini Street. Meanwhile artists and intellectuals held a march from the Cairo Opera House. The so-called "Creativity Front" demanded protection for freedom of creativity.

As many as 2000 protesters lined the street leading to Parliament, which was protected by iron gates, riot police the Central Security Forces, who were in turn protected--somewhat oddly in my view--by hundreds of Salafis and MB members.

Noha El-Hennawy comments that it is not clear how powerful the parliament is in relation to the ruling military council. The MB Democratic Alliance holds 235 seats (47%), the Salafis 135, the moderate Wafd 38 and the Egyptian Bloc 35. There are 498 seats. A variety of independents, including NDP remnants, hold the remaining seats.

Supreme Constitutional Court Vice President Tahani al-Gebali states that the military council still holds the right to ratify or veto bills. This right comes from the temporary constitution in place which was partly written by military decree last spring.

Despite its drawbacks, the Egypt Independent observes that this is the "first fairly elected legislative body in nearly six decades." (Noha El Hennawy, "Egypt's New People's Assembly Swears in Today, but Powers Are Dubious," Al Masry Al Youm, January 24, 2012)

Egypt's Parliament voted Mohamed Saad al Katatny of the Freedom and Justice Party as People's Assembly speaker during its first session. Katatny received 399 votes. Before donning the mantle as speaker, Katatny served as secretary general of the Muslim Brotherhood affiliated Freedom and Justice party. In his first speech, he stated tat "We want to build a new Egypt: a constitutional, democratic and modern Egypt." (Staff "Egypt's New Parliament elects FJP figure as speaker," Egypt Independent, January 24, 2012.)

Elections for the Shura council will begin later this month and end in February. The two chambers are slated to choose a 100 member panel to draft a new constitution, although at this point, anything could happen.

~WMB

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Considering the Talk of the Nation

Dear readers

I saw this story on NPR.   One Year Later, Arab Spring Still Reverberating    

I like Lourdes Garcia-Navarro, but it felt like she phoned this one in a little bit. It is so hard to do flyby journalism and get it right.

For example, the Muslim Brotherhood did not win a "crushing victory." 45% is not a crushing victory. The Freedom and Justice Party was conservatively expected to get 30% of the vote. They exceeded expectations by 15%.

The lesson here, I think, is that suppressing, or attempting to quash extremist groups is a mistake. This oppression of the MB, which began under Nasser, allowed the group over 50 years to organize and strategy. It is not a surprise that their well oiled machine performed against brand new parties that were formed in March. The new government should take note and allow parties of all brands and stripes, no matter how distasteful, to organize and run.

As my colleague Hamid Ali and I said in a recent editorial in the Daily News Egypt,  A Return to Common Sense Politics the more surprising fact, really is that these brand new parties have done as well as they said. Taken together, as I have mentioned in previous posts, moderate and secular parties won 25% of the vote. That is impressive. Of course, Al Wafd, which I place in the moderate category, was part of the loyal opposition under Mubarak. I was surprised Al Adl did so poorly. I was also surprised that the RCA refused to join the Egyptian Bloc coalition. That is a mistake by the secularists, in my view. In unity, there is strength.

The real test will come when parliament starts operating. There are two crucial issues in my view. The first issue is 1) can the parliament act as an effective check on the executive? and 2) Will parties like the FJP and Al Nour be able to deliver on a platform? Winning is one thing. Delivering is another.

~WMB

Saturday, December 17, 2011

Good News and Bad News


Photo Credit Al Jazeera. Protester shouts slogans during clashes today.


Dear readers

Well with regard to the elections results, there is good news and there is bad news.

Let's start with the less than perfect news first. The FJP and Al Nour continue to lead in the second phase of the People's Assembly elections.

Some bad news is that there is fire in Tahrir. My father was just there. Apparently, some of the field hospitals have been attacked, and twitter is reporting that surgeons are needed. There is a big march to bury Sheikh Emmad Effat, but the Salafis are not present. 

The good news is that the Egyptian Bloc is retaining their position as a solid third. In a first past the post system, like in the US, third does not sound good. But in a partially list based system, third gives the liberal and secular Egyptian Bloc some real power in Parliament.

Al Wafd and Al Wasat are doing well in Sharqiya. Al Nour is dominating in Suez. 

Secular activists have not given up though. As I have said, it is remarkable that the Egyptian Bloc and other moderate and liberal parties are doing this well, particularly considering that they just formed in March. There is real potential for infighting between Salafis and the FJP. As Adel Soliman of the International Center for Future and Strategic Studies points out, the liberal parties will be needed to pass laws or block them.

Several smaller parties are throwing their weight behind the Bloc to show a more united front. (Daily News Egypt 11/12) Members of the Bloc are going into rural areas, and talking to local notables.

I personally think it is a serious mistake that the Revolution Continues refuses to coordinate with the Egyptian Bloc.


Wednesday, December 7, 2011

AUC Faculty Experts Dissect Election Results

Reposted from AUC Egypt Daily email newsletter

News at AUC December 7, 2011

In the first round of Egypt’s post-revolution parliamentary elections, which were held in nine governorates including Cairo and Alexandria, Islamist parties won 65 percent of all votes cast for parties, with the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party winning 36.62 percent, followed by Al-Nur Party of the hardline Salafis with 24.36 percent and Al-Wasat Party with 4.27 percent. Meanwhile, the liberalist secular alliance, the Egyptian Bloc, secured 13.35 percent of the votes, and the New Wafd Party got 7 percent.

“The coming struggle will most likely be between the Democrats and Islamic fundamentalism,” said Ezzedine Fishere, distinguished lecturer of political science. “That might be a more difficult and protracted struggle, and will have an uncertain outcome. But it will be, I believe, the last political obstacle standing between us Egyptians and a liberal democracy.”

Results in the first round of elections have raised complex questions about Egypt’s future and where it is heading in this new political landscape – one in which Islamists seem to be the dominant force in the country’s transition from military rule. “The scene in Egypt may lead Egyptians to shortly replace police dictatorship with a theocratic dictatorship,” said Said Sadek, a faculty member in the Department of Sociology, Anthropology, Psychology and Egyptology. “The task after the elections is immense, especially for the Egyptian economy. A Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi government would further plunge the economy to an abyss. People will rise up in a new revolution against them but after more political and economic disasters would have befallen the Egyptian economy, society, women, religious minorities and human rights.” 

Samer Soliman, assistant professor of political science, expressed a different viewpoint. “The Muslim Brotherhood today is different than that of a decade ago; it has developed and matured,” he said. “Despite some violations, the Muslim Brotherhood worked hard and has a strong base among people; therefore, the results are logical. The liberalists should now organize themselves and work harder to secure a similar popular base among the people.”

Soliman was quick to point out, however, that the “Muslim Brotherhood now has the right to help in the formation of government, but it will never have the right to infringe on human rights.”

While some chose to boycott the elections in light of the recent violence in Tahrir, Khaled Fahmy, chair of the history department, feels the elections were vital. “With these elections, Egypt passed a huge step toward democracy,” he said. “Even though I am against the boycott, I understand and respect those who were calling for it. I do believe, however, that participating in elections is one way, among many, including continuing the Tahrir sit-in, to force the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) out of the picture.”

Nevertheless, Fahmy is discontent with the run-up to the elections. “The law governing elections is a disastrous one that combines the worst features of the single-candidate district model with the worst features of the proportional representation model,” Fahmy explained, adding that “SCAF’s cavalier policies confused both voters and candidates and effectively dissipated the efforts of the new parties, as well as the more established ones, and distracted them to side issues instead of giving them the opportunity to reach out to voters, sharpen their messages, present credible electoral programs and build grassroots organizations with their constituencies. I strongly believe that the Egyptian people deserve a much better elections law than this one, and that after the January 25 Revolution, we were entitled to a much better, more substantial election campaign than what we witnessed.”

With the second and third round of elections looming ahead, as well as the drafting of a new constitution for the country and the 2012 presidential elections, Fishere predicts that Egypt will be witnessing an intense struggle between the Islamists, the military and the liberals. “This election has revealed the relative strength of the different forces in society, and the Islamists now feel more confident,” he said. “Egyptian Democrats who focused their energies on resisting the rule of the military will now have to fight on two fronts.”


Saturday, December 3, 2011

The Glass is One Third Full

Dear Readers

Well, the FJP (aka Muslim Brotherhood) was expected to win big, so no surprise there. However, the Al Nour is a big surprise, and frankly, a shock.

However, I am very happy that the Egyptian Bloc, which consists of Free Egyptians, the Social Democratic Party and Tagamoo looks like it is doing well. I spoke to a top party member at Groppi cafe yesterday, and he tells me that he is getting an outpouring of support for the remaining two areas where elections have not yet been held. At least there will be some, significant liberal and secular representation in parliament.

Those radicals and leftists who urged people not to vote made a big tactical error. In addition, it would seem that in the next set of elections, all liberal and secular parties would be well advised to work in one bloc, and unite forces.

As I tell my students, democracy is an iterative process. We need to prepare to do better next time.

~WMB

Friday, December 2, 2011

Very preliminary Election Outcomes

Updated December 6, 10:54 a.m.

This post will summarize election outcomes in an easy to read format. The best way to find up the minute info on this is to look here. Jaadaliya Election Results . 

The value added of looking here is that I just give you the bare facts. It is a bit easier to read.

According to Jaadaliya, "Exit polls and preliminary vote count show that the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists are expected to finish first and second in the first phase with the liberal Egyptian Bloc a distant third."

Votes will supposedly be announced tonight, although they said that yesterday too. Worried laughter . . .
  • No official results as of Sunday, results and percentages are still trickling in . . . .
  • Also, apparently (as of Sunday December 4, 2011) there is some confusion with what to do when the extra votes. i.e. how will the seats be allocated for parties who make the cutoff, but get few votes.
  • As of Tuesday December 6, 2011, there was very low turnout for the runoffs last night. One of my students works for the UN observation team and she noted this.
  • This cool chart was published by the Arabist on Saturday. It may no longer be up to date, but gives some preliminary visuals. Chart for Round One of the Elections

My latest information is that no woman has been elected in the first round.

I will get results up as fast as I can. Lists are completed, still working on single winners. All results are not final. Runoffs for first leg of single-winner tomorrow. (Monday, December 5)


Cairo (54 seats) 

Cairo List 1 (10 Seats) 
FJP (39%)=4 Seats

Egyptian Bloc(23.5%)=3 Seats
Al Nour (5.36%)=1seat 
Al Wafd (6.23%)=1 seat

Cairo List 2 (8 Seats)
FJP(35.65%)=3
Egyptian Bloc(26.22%)=2
Al Nour(11.1%)=1
Al Wafd(7.22%)=1
Al Wasat(5.76%)=1


Cairo List 3 (Qasr al Nil)(8 Seats)
FJP(39%)=3
Egyptian Bloc(18.33%)=2
Wafd(14.67%)=1
Nour(14.52%)=1
RCA(3.45%)=1


Cairo List 4 (Helwan)(10 Seats)
FJP(40.48%)=4
Nour(19.35%)=2
Egyptian Bloc(13.14%)=1
Al Wafd(7.32%)=1
Revolution Continue(3.62%)=1
Al Wasat(3.39%)=1

 
Cairo Single Winner Seats. 

#1 : Egyptian Bloc vs. FJP
#2 : FJP vs. Egyptian Block (Yeah!)
#3 : FJP vs. El Adl, Al Nour (wow!) or Independent.
#4:  Heliopolis: Amr Hamzawy with 53% of the vote (Mabruk!) Former NDP vs. FJP (wow! Scary) 
#5: FJP vs. Al Nour (Yikes!)
#6:  FJP vs. Egyptian Bloc, Gamila Ismail did not make it.
#7:  FJP vs. Al Nour or former NDP. (Sigh)
#8: FJP vs.FJP.
#9:  Mostafa Bakry wins, Independent. Ramadan Omar wins, FJP.

Alexandria (24 Seats) 

Alexandria List #1 (6 Seats) 


FJP (34.41%)=2
Al Nour (29.85%)=2
Egyptian Bloc (16.02%)=1
Wafd (6.40%)=1




Alexandria List #2(10 Seats)

FJP (35.32%)=4
Al Nour (32.96%)=3
Revolution Continues (10%)=1
Egyptian Bloc  (6.15%)=1
Al Wafd(5.55%)=1


Alexandria single winner Seats
working on this . . . .





Damietta (12 seats) 


Damietta List
FJP
Al Nour
Al Wasat

Kafr Al Sheikh (18 Seats)

FJP (31%)
Al Nour (22%)
Al Wafd (15%)
Union
National Party  (NDP)
Democratic Front
Freedom Party (NDP)
Egyptian Citizen (NDP)


Fayoum (18 Seats) 
Fayoum List 1
FJP
Al Nour
Freedom Party(NDP)
Revolution Continues


Fayoum List 2
FJP(2Seats)
Al Nour (near tie) (2 Seats)
Egyptian Bloc (no seats)


Port Said (6 Seats) 
Port Said List 
FJP=32% (2 Seats)
Al Nour=20% (1 Seat)
Al Wafd=14%
Al Wasat=13%


Red Sea (6 Seats)
Red Sea List 
FJP=35% (2 Seats)
Egyptian Bloc=17% (One Seat)
Egyptian Citizen (NDP)= 14% (One Seat)
Al Wafd=10%
Freedom Party (NDP)=8%
Al Wasat=6%
Revolution Continues=4%

Assiut (24 Seats)
Assiut List 1
FJP=44%
Al Nour=23%
Egyptian Bloc=22%
Wafd
Nasserist
Peace
Wasat



Assiut List 2
FJP > 40%
Al Nour
Egyptian Bloc



Luxor(6 seats)
Luxor List 
FJP=40%
Al Nour
Egyptian Bloc
Al Wafd


Luxor Single Winner (Runoff)

1.Independent
2.FJP/NDP
3.FJP


Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Egyptian Expatriates can now vote (perhaps), women organize, and Egypt Above All


This report is compiled from my morning review of the Daily News Egypt, Al Ahram Online, and Al Masry Al Youm. This review was conducted over ahwa bi laban. Meanwhile, Tahrir is busy as "low-ranking (AFP's words, not mine) policemen strike in Hurghada and outside the Interior ministry in Cairo to demand  the ouster of elements of the former regime, and improved pay.

In big news reported by all papers Egyptian expatriates now may, sort of, perhaps have the right to vote. Justice Abdel Salam Al-Naggar of the Administrative Court ruled that electoral headquarters should be established in Egyptian embassies around the world. A lawsuit was brought by a group of expatriates that included famous novelist Ahdaf Soueif. The Egyptian vote abroad movement was organized partly using social media, including Facebook, and twitter.

Mohamed ElBaradei talked about the matter before the revolution. Approximately 8 million Egyptians live abroad. Apparently, after the Revolution, numerous Egyptians began to register at Egyptian embassies in their host countries. It is not clear if the SCAF will respect the court's ruling.  This ruling is not likely to translate immediately into implementation, and it is not clear if it will be applicable for the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Al Ahram points out that women in Egypt are organizing. Before the Revolution, women in the farming sector were forbidden from organizing. Female peasants in Imbaba district's Werdan village formed the first union for women farmers in Egypt this week. They aim to defend womens' rights in the sector, and fight for equal treatment of male and female workers in the agricultural sector. I am hopeful that this increased level of organization spills over into the political arena. 

Mahmoud Ramzy of Al Masry reports that a newly formed coalition has formed supporting Field Marshall Tantawi, current president of the SCAF, as president of the Egypt. Posters have appeared in Cairo and Alexandria. The campaign is called "Egypt Above All." Gallows humor moment: I am fluent in German, and if we translate that phrase into German, it reads Aegypten ueber alles. Not good.

Rana Khazbak reports that The Revolution Continues Coalition is composed of the January 25th Revolution Youth Coalition and six other parties, including the Socialist Popular Alliance Party, the Freedom Egypt Party, and the Islamist Egyptian Current Party (a radical youth breakoff of the MB). They aim to filed 270 candidates on party lists, and 20 individual candidates. Sixty of the coalition's candidates are women, and more than fifty percent are young people. The ideological scale of the group is predominantly leftist, but it also includes an Islamist party.

Meanwhile, Nate Wright reports that the centrist El Adl party will compete in the parliamentary elections alone. It has refused to join the MB dominated Democratic Alliance, or the Egyptian Bloc led by liberals. The party wants to move away from patronage, and towards changing ideology.

Noha El-Hennawy reports that the MB will use the slogan "We bring good for Egypt." This is a move away from their earlier slogan "Islam is the Solution." The MB heads the Democratic Alliance, which includes 11 parties. The Freedom and Justice party will now run for all seats in parliament, because of the current list based system. This contradicts a promise that they made not to run for more than 50 percent of seats earlier this year. Heba Fahmy of the Daily News says the the Democratic Alliance List includes 76 women and 2 Copts. About half of the female candidates are on the top of the list.

Finally, Heba Fahmy tells us that the political parties found the list candidacy system this weekend very disorganized and difficult, but those vying for individual seats had no problems. Okay, now I am exhausted, and my coffee is finished.