Speech about Egyptian Democratization to the Arkansas Peace and Justice Coalition, January 12, 2013

 

 

Mural of Nasser, Tahrir Square, January 12, 2013

Democratization in Egypt
January 12, 2013

Thank you for inviting me here tonight. It is a real honor to have received this invitation, and be asked to speak in front of such a diverse group of progressive activists.

I am excited about the chosen topic for tonight’s talk, but I also realize its pitfalls. How do I summarize the high points of a Revolution only two years old, but one that has more excitement, plot twists, and drama than a novel by Tolstoy? I was lucky enough to live through the Egyptian Revolution, and actually arrived in Egypt to teach at the American University in Cairo on the first official day of the Revolution, January 25, 2011. I stayed in that country until December 31st, at which point I returned to the US, and began teaching at the Clinton School of Public Service.

So tonight, I am going to just briefly sketch a history of movement towards democratization in Egypt over the past two years, and what I believe are the concerns around those matters. Then, I want to invite questions from the audience to fill in the gaps people are most interested in.

Demographically, Egypt has significant economic potential. It is the most populous country in the Arab world. It has the Nile River. It has strong ties to both Africa and the Middle East and lies upon the mediterranean ocean. It has significant natural gas reserves, and massive tourist potential. It has a well developed manufacturing base, and some impressive engineering, such as the Aswan dam. It is a diverse country with approximately 90 percent of a Muslim population, ten percent Coptic Christian, and the remaining population consisting of Bahais, and traditionalists. Every shade of skin is represented in Egypt from the blue eyes and blond hair of Alexandria, to the dusky tones of the bedouin in the Sinai, and the rich dark skin of the Nubians in Upper Egypt.

So, what is the current political situation in Egypt? As you know, an enlightenment style revolution swept through Egypt two years ago.  One of the mottos of the revolution was “bread, equality and social justice.” Hosni Mubarak, a US ally, and an authoritarian, oligarchic leader was forced to leave power.

Politically, Mubarak was very beholden to the US. He was enormously corrupt. He had emerged from the military and maintained strong ties with them. Under Mubarak, business and the state became one in a manner a political scientist might characterize as nearly fascist. In an interesting twist, the military created its own business empire under his rule. Under Mubarak, the poor became desperately poor. Illiteracy increased to nearly 70 percent, and corruption was rife. Inequality increased rapidly, and as the Revolution indicated, Mubarak and his cronies stole a significant amount of the nation’s wealth under his rule.

After Mubarak left, the country was ruled for an extended period by the military, known as the Supreme Council of Armed Forces, or SCAF.  Essentially, the country remained authoritarian in this period, but the military was the leader, not Mubarak. Many viewed this as the death of one head of a two-headed hydra, where the beast remained alive.  One head had been cut off yet the other head remained.

The conservative right and liberal left categories which categorize Europe and perhaps the US simply do not fit well in Egypt. Rather, parties can more easily be divided along a crucial axis: support for a secular state, or support for a religious (Islamic) state. Another axis might be support for human rights, democratic mechanisms, social justice and the poor, or conversely support for large business, the military and an authoritarian state. So to give an example, Mubarak was secular, but pro-business and autocratic. The Muslim Brotherhood supports poverty relief, but also leans towards an Islamist state. The Nour party (Salafis) support a strong Islamist state and have no well thought out views on most of the other issues. The opposition led in part by Mohammed El Baradei, supports a secular state, the rights of women and minorities, poverty reduction, and more democratic approaches.  

As a point of clarification, being Muslim does not make one an Islamist, or a radical or al qaeda. There are many practicing Muslims who prefer a secular state. The threat, in my view, comes from the Salafis, or fundamentalists, who wish to impose a Wahabi, Saudi style, stripped down, and very strict version of Islam on Egypt. These are the people who are destroying Sufi relics in Mali, and who terrorize Afghanistan as the Taliban. Like Christianity, Islam has many voices, from the most conservative, (Wahabi) to the most liberal, perhaps the Sufi, and a whole spectrum in between.

A burst of optimism among the liberal secularists occurred as the nation prepared for the first ever truly free parliamentary elections in the Winter and Spring of 2012. However, after the dust had settled, the first post-revolutionary Egyptian parliament had few women, and many Islamists, some of them extreme. One good outcome of the parliamentary election was that the liberals and secularists did better than expected, capturing about 15 percent of the seats in the lower house. Given the fact that the majority of liberal parties were formed after the Revolution, I believe that was a strong showing.

Late in the spring, however,  the sunshine of democracy dimmed as the judiciary dismissed the lower house of parliament on technical grounds.

In June 2012, I returned to Egypt to the American University in Cairo to work on my research. In mid June, an election took place between Ahmed Shafiq, former prime minister under Mubarak and a military man, and Mohammed Morsy, a well educated engineer, and prominent member of the Muslim Brotherhood. Tensions ran very high, and matters were tense. It appeared to be a Hobson’s Choice: on the one hand, Shafiq was resolutely secular, but nonetheless had strong ties to the deposed regime. On the other hand Mohammed Morsy was a revolutionary of sorts, but he was also clearly an Islamist. It was really a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea. As we know now, it was a tightly contested election, but Morsy seems to have fairly won Egypt’s presidency.

This ushered in another strange interregnum with both democratic and authoritarian elements. An Islamist was President, the judiciary had been appointed by the old regime, and the freely elected parliament had been dismissed. After only a few months in power, Morsy stunned the world by trying to implement a power grab in late November 2012, sparking outrage and massive protests across Egypt.

Egypt’s New Constitution was approved by referendum in December, and was signed into law by President Mohamed Morsy on December 26, 2012. Human Rights Watch states that the draft constitution provides for basic protections against arbitrary dentention and torture and for some economic rights. However, it fails to end military trials of civilians or protect freedom of expression and religion. One positive development is that the final draft does not require strict adherence to sharia with regard to women's rights (former article 68 has been removed). However, sex or gender is not a grounds for prohibiting discrimination in the approved version, and potentially interferes with women's choices about work and family.

Also, in the period between Christmas and New Years, more developments occurred. In accordance with the recently passed Constitution, eight judges have been dismissed from the Supreme Constitutional Court, one of whom was the first Egyptian woman to hold a post in the judiciary. Activists believe this dismissal violates the separation of powers, and shows that the judiciary is increasingly under attack.

The dispute about the Constitution, which was largely viewed as drafted by Islamists, has had a positive side effect of bringing the opposition together. The new opposition coalition is called the National Salvation Front. This group includes Mohamed El Baradei, the Social Democratic Party (a European style left democratic group), The Free Egyptians (A free market group which has secular and coptic membership) and a variety of socialist, communist, and secular groups.

All legislative power now rests with the upper house, the Shura. A draft law on elections has been proposed by the Egyptian Shura council.  This law is being put in place to plan for a new round of parliamentary elections scheduled for April.  The National Council of Women, however,has  said the draft does not allow proper representation of women in Parliament, nor does it represent the capabilities, potential and ambitions of women after the January 25th revolution.

So, in summary, there is good news and bad news about democratization in Egypt.  Egypt has made remarkable, and bold strides. It is impressive that elections were held. They were not completely free and fair, but neither were they totally rigged. The fact that the Islamists won is encouraging in the sense that the electorate did elect a completely different group into power than held power during the Mubarak government. The bad news is that the Islamists are not progressive, nor particularly interested in democratic institutions, and they seem to be consolidating their grip on power.

As we have seen, two years into the Revolution, there is still a lot of work to still be done. That is, in and of itself, not a bad thing. Please remember that the French Revolution took nearly twenty years to complete. Many countries that have gone through democratic transitions recently, including Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa, often experienced long periods of partial transition. Thus, it would be realistic to assume that Egypt has a good ten to twenty years ahead of it before the democratic transition is complete.

What can American activists do to support democracy in Egypt? We can send support and training to the emerging progressive parties, such as the National Salvation Front, and urge the American government to do the same. We can also educate our fellow Americans that there are different kinds of Islam, most of which are moderate, and not affilated with al qaeda. We can also encourage support for the rule of law, and democratic processes. The best idea is to support Egyptian based NGOs doing work in these areas.

A Leader Worth Mourning: Samer Soliman (1968-2012)

As we prepare for Christmas, we celebrate a season of illumination, yet we also mourn many tragedies across the globe. This is appropriate, as Christmas is a time of endings as well as beginnings, and more subtly perhaps, it is also a continuation. The winter solstice is the shortest day of the year. It therefore represents an end as well as a beginning. The birth of Christ, over two thousand years ago represented the beginning of a new world religion, a continuation of revered Abrahamic beliefs, as well as the incorporation of ancient pagan, animist, and pharaonic traditions.

On this day, as we prepare for the 2013th celebration of the prophet whom we call Christ, I want to celebrate the life of one of the most influential politicians, activists, and scholars I have ever met: Dr. Samer Soliman. As I mourn his leaving this planet earth, I also am mourning the passage of a an ill-thought out, undemocratic constitution by the people of Egypt. I pray earnestly for the continuation of the Egyptian democratic opposition on this holy night. I ask all the people of Egypt, and of the world, to keep working to ensure that the promise of the Egyptian Revolution is fulfilled.

Samer would have wanted me to feel all of these feelings. Samer died after a battle with terminal cancer at the age of 44.  He was a Coptic Christian, who was nonetheless a fundamentally secular person. He was a journalist, and a brilliant scholar who wrote The Autumn of Dictatorship: Fiscal Crisis and Political Change in Egypt under Mubarak. He was a Professor of Political Economy at the American University in Cairo, and a founding member of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party. Ahram Online bids writer, activist Samer Soliman farewell.

Yet these dry facts, as impressive as they are, do not do justice to Samer's life. I do not have space to eulogize his life as a devoted spouse and family man to his beautiful wife Mary Shenoda. Nor is there room to discuss his stature as a professor at the American University in Cairo. Rather, I will focus on his work as an activist and a politician, since Egypt is facing a political crisis larger than perhaps any since the January 25th revolution itself. Farewell Samer Soliman (Egypt Independent)

Samer had a vision for the new Egypt.  Samer came from a political family, reared in Egypt's long tradition of secularism, which made Cairo the jewel of North Africa in the 1950s and early 1960s. He drew on these resources when he helped found the Social Democratic Party of Egypt shortly after the January 25th Revolution. I arrived in Cairo on January 25th, 2011, the first day of the revolution. While I tried to understand what was going on in my new home, Samer was on the barricades with students, farmers and workers, fighting valiantly to usher Egypt into a new era of democracy and human rights. He had long been involved in Egypt's historically strong labor movement. He reached out to the European social democratic parties, forged in Europe's struggle for democracy and labor rights in the 1920s, and revived after World War II in the 1950s.

Although Western news sources tend to focus on the Muslim Brotherhood, the Social Democratic Party, one of the few genuinely new post-revolutionary parties to emerge in Egypt, has made a huge mark in this time frame. In coalition with the Free Egyptians and Tagamoo, the SDP formed the Egyptian Bloc ("Kotla). In the new (now dissolved) parliament, the Bloc made an impressive showing for such a new party, winning 7 percent of the available seats. The Kotla became one of the top five parties, and the major party representing women, secularists, democrats, Nubians, bedouins, Copts, human rights advocates, and so many other underrepresented yet crucial segments of Egyptian society.

Inspired by Samer and the SDP, I decided that I needed to document the emergence of Egypt's emerging opposition. I spent countless hours speaking to Samer and other SDP members learning about this new political forces.  Samer spoke to my leadership class on the budget challenges facing the new Egyptian government. He kept the fire burning bright that Egypt could be a democratic country that had room for all constituents, and all citizens. He championed human rights, civil rights, democracy, and social justice.

What would Samer think of the recent constitutional referendum? He would be dissappointed, I am sure, perhaps even frustrated and angry, but he would tell us not to give up. Samer received his doctorate in political science from the prestigious Science Po in Paris, France. As an intellectual and a scholar, he would remind us that the French Revolution spanned decades. He would tell us that like our French compatriots centuries before, we must keep moving forward, clear in our objectives, inspired by the ideals of the Enlightenment.

I like to think that he would be cheered that the April 6 Movement is planning a march on the presidential palace to oppose this constitution that does not truly represent the Egyptian people. He would applaud the fact that after nearly a year of disunity, the Egyptian opposition has finally been galvanized. Indeed, the National Salvation Front, composed of the Constitution Party, Wafd, the Social Democratic Party, the popular current party, and the National Association for Change have stated that they will run for parliament on one list.

I believe that tonight, Samer looks down on us from Heaven. I pray that we remember the message of his life, and all take steps to ensure that his vision becomes a reality. I pray that the Egyptian opposition seizes the moment to unite, and move the revolution, and Egypt's democracy forward.

Merry Christmas Samer. Egypt has lost a great leader, a lion of a man. Like the Lion of Judah, we hear your call. May we reach the mountaintop that you pointed us toward. May the peace of Christ be with you, always.

Your comrade in arms, Warigia

A very bad version of the Egyptian Constitution and a very big protest

Sit In at Tahrir. Credit: Al Masry Al Youm

There is so much going on in Egypt it is next to impossible to keep track of it all. But wait, I have had this feeling before!!!

To make a long story short, the draft Egyptian constitution is almost as unpopular as Morsi's decree. Here is a collection of materials about the massive Friday protests and the constitution.

The Associated Press reports, Islamists approved the Constitutional draft "without the participation of liberal and Christian members, seeking to pre-empt a court ruling that could dissolve their panel with a rushed, marathon vote that further inflames the clash between the opposition and President Mohammed Morsi." On Morning Edition, "Critics say it's not just that the president is rushing through an imperfect document, but one that could be dangerous. For instance, the draft constitution has preserved broad powers for the president although it does stipulate four-year term limits. There is still little civilian oversight of the military. And perhaps the most controversial part is the slightly expanded role and influence of Islam, which gives clerics a consulting role on legislation. "For all the hope of change, observers say the document is quite similar to the 1971 constitution it's expected to replace." In Egypt, Draft of Constitution OK'd (NPR)

Al Ahram reports that The finalization of Egypt’s new constitution did not help to stop protests. Egypt's Political Opposition holds firm (Al Ahram) Although given a 2 month extension, the Constituent Assembly finished the draft in a marathon session that lasted more than 15 hours. “According to analysts, the move was intended to placate activists and anti-Muslim Brotherhood demonstrators angry at what they see as Morsi’s attempt to impose autocratic rule.” Once a draft constitution is approved via popular referendum, Morsi's decree will be cancelled and his legislative powers transferred to a newly-elected parliament. However, protests showed no sign of abating. Tahrir Square demonstrators, who are pushing for a 'no' vote in the upcoming referendum, believe the draft constitution neither fulfils the aspirations of Egyptians nor achieves revolutionary objectives.

"Egypt will not be forced to choose between a dictatorial declaration and a rushed constitution written by a fraction of Egyptian society… Egypt will not bow down to the will of a few," former presidential candidate Hamdeen Sabbahi. 

Protests had begun after Morsi's power decree on November 22nd, but the release of the poorly drafted constitution made things worse, not better. Egypt Constitution Protests (LA Times) Morsi continues to defend both his recent decree and the draft constitution, claiming that it is necessary to advance Egypt's political transition.  Human Rights Watch suggests that secular moderates in Egypt may approve the constitution because of the fear of a future full of uncertainty. 

Here are some of the more controversial articles of the constitution: Egypt Constitution Sparks Outrage (WSJ)

o   Article 2: Says that Islam is the religion of the state and that principles of Islamic Shariah are the primary source of legislation.

o   Article 11: The state has power to issue unspecified laws that regulate 'public morality, discipline and order.'

o   Article 150: President can call binding referendum on 'important matters related to the state's paramount interests.

o   Article 198: Military tribunals can try civilians for crimes 'that harm the armed forces.'

The Egypt Independent notes that

"Participants chanted against the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis. “Egypt for all Egyptians, not Brothers and Salafis,” they chanted, along with “Down with the supreme guide’s rule,” referring to the Brotherhood’s leader. Demonstrators call for canceling the new constitutional declaration, canceling the referendum on the current draft constitution, restructuring the Constituent Assembly to write a constitution that reflects the views of all Egyptians, and providing retribution for the martyrs of the revolution who have died since 25 January 2011. “Among the most prominent participants are the Free Egyptians, Strong Egypt, Egyptian Social Democratic, and Constitution parties, as well as the April 6 Youth Movement Democratic and Ahmed Maher fronts, the Coalition of Egypt’s Copts, the Popular Democratic Movement, the Maspero Youth Union, the Voice of Freedom Movement, the Free Front for Peaceful Change, the Coalition of the Lotus Revolution and the Revolutionary Youth Union.”"Thousands Converge on Tahrir (EI) 
 

Well, that is enough for today. 

~WMB

Drafting Egypt's Constitution

Dear Readers

I apologize for my absence, I have been attending to urgent family matters, and have not had time to write enough.

But I am back, and recommitted, Ilhamdillulah!

So, what is new? As is usual there is a lot going on in Egypt these days. My biggest worry regarding democracy is secularism and the constitution. According to an article on NPR by Soraya Sarhaddi Nelson, Unease Grows Over Islamist Political Agenda in Egypt, Parliament has handpicked a 100 member panel that has begun meeting to write a new Egyptian constitution. 

The worry is where this leaves Christians, Bahai and other religious minorities. Is there room to be secular in Egypt? According to that article, as many of two-thirds of the panel members are Islamist or allies. "Only a handful of women and Christians were selected to take part." Several secular panelists have since quit the constitutional panel in protest.

On March 23rd, hundreds protested against the formation of a constitution writing assembly, Protesters reject formation of constitution-writing assembly. Egypt Independent. Protesters rallied in front of the High Court of Justice to demand that the SCAF relinquish power to a civilian government. They also protested against the composition of the group who will draft Egypt's constitution. As of now, MPs will constitute half of that group's membership. The other half are to be composed of experts from other fields.

On March 24th, parliament members from the Free Egyptians Party, the Revolution Continues Coalition, and the Egyptian Social Democratic Party pulled out of talks regarding the composition of the constitutional drafting committee. Adl Party and Karama party representatives walked out of the session as well. The dissenters accused the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party and the far right Islamist Nour party of dominating the Constitutional committee.

~WMB

Names of women in Egyptian parliament

Dear readers

My beloved graduate student Heba Galal has gotten me the names of women in parliament.

You can find all the names of candidates in Shorouk News but in Arabic,

 

Here is the website  :-

http://shorouknews.com/news/view.aspx?id=964be8e0-2cc9-42d3-bd48-926467373c67

Here are the names of the candidates of women in the parliament:-

Lists (332 seats)

1. Margret Azer  (Al-Wafd /workers)

Second district of Cairo Nasr city

2. Sana Ahmed Mohamed Gamal El-Din (workers / Egyptian Social Democratic Party)

Second district of Assuit “Al Fateh”

3. Hanan Saad  Aboul Gheit Hassan (workers / Al-Wafd) 

Damietta Governorate

4. Azza Mohamed Ibrahim El Gerf (farmer/Freedom and Justice) 

Second district of Giza (Bulaq)

5. Magda Hassan Alnuichi (workers / Al Wafd)

Ismailia Governorate

6. Huda Muhammad Anwar Abdul Rahman Ghania(Categories / Freedom and Justice) 

Second district of Qaliubiya ”Shubra Al Khaimah”

Individuals (166 seats)

7. Nehad  Al-Qasim Syed Abdul Wahab Khudair (categories / Freedom and Justice) 

Benisuef Governorate

10 candidates are being recruited by SCAF in the parliament-- among them 2 women

8. Suzey Adley Nashed

9. Brian Malak Kamal

No Fear

I had a very interesting interview with one of the founding members of the Social Democratic Party today.

She said a few things I found fascinating. She mentioned that she got into politics through the Kefaya movement ("Enough"), which first emerged in around 2004. I found it interesting that she learned about the movement in part through their website and an opposition chat room. Further, she mentioned that she actually registered for the SDP by filling out an application on their website. I find it intriguing how much these new parties used information technology.

I asked her if she was worried that the government would track her if she signed up online. She said, that in the time of the Kefaya, in the time before the Revolution, she was afraid. Since the Revolution, she is no longer afraid. She said that in this post-revolutionary period, "fear is over," and she did not hesitate to become politically active.

~WMB

AUC Faculty Experts Dissect Election Results

Reposted from AUC Egypt Daily email newsletter

News at AUC December 7, 2011

In the first round of Egypt’s post-revolution parliamentary elections, which were held in nine governorates including Cairo and Alexandria, Islamist parties won 65 percent of all votes cast for parties, with the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party winning 36.62 percent, followed by Al-Nur Party of the hardline Salafis with 24.36 percent and Al-Wasat Party with 4.27 percent. Meanwhile, the liberalist secular alliance, the Egyptian Bloc, secured 13.35 percent of the votes, and the New Wafd Party got 7 percent.

“The coming struggle will most likely be between the Democrats and Islamic fundamentalism,” said Ezzedine Fishere, distinguished lecturer of political science. “That might be a more difficult and protracted struggle, and will have an uncertain outcome. But it will be, I believe, the last political obstacle standing between us Egyptians and a liberal democracy.”

Results in the first round of elections have raised complex questions about Egypt’s future and where it is heading in this new political landscape – one in which Islamists seem to be the dominant force in the country’s transition from military rule. “The scene in Egypt may lead Egyptians to shortly replace police dictatorship with a theocratic dictatorship,” said Said Sadek, a faculty member in the Department of Sociology, Anthropology, Psychology and Egyptology. “The task after the elections is immense, especially for the Egyptian economy. A Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi government would further plunge the economy to an abyss. People will rise up in a new revolution against them but after more political and economic disasters would have befallen the Egyptian economy, society, women, religious minorities and human rights.” 

Samer Soliman, assistant professor of political science, expressed a different viewpoint. “The Muslim Brotherhood today is different than that of a decade ago; it has developed and matured,” he said. “Despite some violations, the Muslim Brotherhood worked hard and has a strong base among people; therefore, the results are logical. The liberalists should now organize themselves and work harder to secure a similar popular base among the people.”

Soliman was quick to point out, however, that the “Muslim Brotherhood now has the right to help in the formation of government, but it will never have the right to infringe on human rights.”

While some chose to boycott the elections in light of the recent violence in Tahrir, Khaled Fahmy, chair of the history department, feels the elections were vital. “With these elections, Egypt passed a huge step toward democracy,” he said. “Even though I am against the boycott, I understand and respect those who were calling for it. I do believe, however, that participating in elections is one way, among many, including continuing the Tahrir sit-in, to force the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) out of the picture.”

Nevertheless, Fahmy is discontent with the run-up to the elections. “The law governing elections is a disastrous one that combines the worst features of the single-candidate district model with the worst features of the proportional representation model,” Fahmy explained, adding that “SCAF’s cavalier policies confused both voters and candidates and effectively dissipated the efforts of the new parties, as well as the more established ones, and distracted them to side issues instead of giving them the opportunity to reach out to voters, sharpen their messages, present credible electoral programs and build grassroots organizations with their constituencies. I strongly believe that the Egyptian people deserve a much better elections law than this one, and that after the January 25 Revolution, we were entitled to a much better, more substantial election campaign than what we witnessed.”

With the second and third round of elections looming ahead, as well as the drafting of a new constitution for the country and the 2012 presidential elections, Fishere predicts that Egypt will be witnessing an intense struggle between the Islamists, the military and the liberals. “This election has revealed the relative strength of the different forces in society, and the Islamists now feel more confident,” he said. “Egyptian Democrats who focused their energies on resisting the rule of the military will now have to fight on two fronts.”

Political Parties, Lists and things it would be nice to know about the Upcoming Egyptian Parliamentary Elections

Photo Credit Al Ahram online. Popular Socialist Alliance Street Party.

 Dear readers

A reader has made the excellent request that I try to assemble information about all parties and lists in one page. This page will be a running assessment of the state of political life in Egypt as the parliamentary elections approach. I will try to update it as frequently as possible. This information may be available in one place at the Higher Elections Commission. However, it is all in Arabic. So I am creating a database from the Egyptian press. I am reading the English press, and my students the Arabic Press.

When will the elections be held?

Parliamentary elections  for the people's assembly are scheduled to start on November 28th, 2011. Following rounds of elections will be held on December 5th, and December 14th.

My students and I think that this system of having some governorates vote first, and then others follow is very problematic. Governorates in later elections will observe the results of the Cairo vote, and then change their votes accordingly. The outcomes of the earlier votes will affect the outcomes of the later votes.

The Shura Council Poll will being on January 29th, and end on March 11, 2012. 

How many seats are up for grabs? 

There are 498 seats in the People's Assembly which will be decided by election. Another 10 seats will be appointed, making the total number of seats in the People's Assembly 508.

Shura Council will have 180 elected seats, and 90 presidentially appointed seats, for a total of 270 seats in the upper house.One question is who will appoint the 90 seats in the absence of a President in Egypt.

How do the election stages work? 

The first stage of elections will be held between November 28th and the 5th of December. It includes Egypt's most popular governerates, Cairo and Alexandria, as well as Fayoum, Port Said, Damietta, Kafr Al-Sheikh, Assiut, Luxor and the Red Sea.

How many political parties are there in Egypt?

As many as 55 political parties, (as of November 14, 2011) most of which were formed after the January 25th Revolution, will compete in the parliamentary elections.

How many electoral districts are there in Egypt? 

There are 46 electoral districts covered by the party list system, and 83 districts covered by the individual candidacy system. Source: Gamal Assam El Din, "Egypt's Opposition Slams Proposed Electoral Changes," Ahram Online, September 26, 2011.

How many candidates have registered? 

Over 15,000 candidates have registered (As of October 29, 2011). Over 8600 have registered as independents. 6600 have registered for the People's Assembly. More than 2000 have registered for the Shura Council.

What are the main Alliances?

There are four main electoral blocs, which span the political spectrum. Although Egypt does have a left, I believe it is inaccurate, in my view, to say it has a "right," as that concept is understood in Europe. It has a secular side and a more fundamentalist religious side.

Left/Liberal

Egyptian Bloc: Free Egyptians (Free Enterprise), Egyptian Social Democratic Party, Tagmmu Party (old school leftist)
The Revolution Continues: Socialist Popular Alliance Party, Egyptian Socialist Party, Egypt Freedom (Amr Hamzawy), Equality and Development, Egyptian Current, Revolution Youth Coalition

Right/Religious

Democratic Alliance: (12 parties) Muslim Brotherhood, Ghad Party, Al-Karama (Nasserist)
Islamist Alliance: Nour Party (Salafis), Asala, the Salafist Current, the Construction and Development Party (Al-Jamaa Al-Islamiya)


What are some of the other parties in Egypt?


Overview of Political Parties from The Arabist.

Map of Egypt's Political Parties

Overview of Political Parties from the Carnegie Endowment.This is by Marina Ottaway, a respected academic with a lot of expertise on both Africa and the Middle East.

The Emerging Political Spectrum in Egypt

Here is information about parties I have gleaned from Newspapers.

Unity Party (Hossam Badrawy/NDP)
Wafd (liberal/NDP)

Egyptian Communist Party (not running/boycotting)
Egypt Above All Coalition (Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi)
El Adl (liberal/free enterprise)
Democratic Front Party (liberal)
Horreya Party (NDP cover)
Egyptian Citizen Party (NDP Cover)
National Egypt Party (NDP Cover)  (60 former NDP members)

Note: The High Administrative Court in Mansoura, Dakahlia governorate, has banned all members of the NDP from running for parliament. The General Electoral Committee in the governorate should reject the nomination papers of any candidate who was a member of NDP. It is not clear if the ruling will apply only in Dakhalia or across Egypt. According to Reuters, however, on November 15, 2011, Judge Magdy E-Agaty of the Higher Administrative Court has overturned the verdict. According to the Daily News Egypt, former NDP members have set up at least 6 parties. 

Will Expatriates be Allowed to Vote?

Maybe. Prime Minister Essam Sharaf held a meeting this weekend (November 10, 2011) with several cabinet members to discuss whether expatriates can vote. They may be allowed to vote in Egyptian embassies abroad.

Who Can Monitor Elections?

Only Egyptians can monitor elections. International election monitors will not be allowed. The Egyptian Council for Human Rights has received 7168 requests from NGOs to monitor elections.

What Kind of Electoral System will be Used?

The elections will combine a list system as well as a single winner system. One third of the seats will be based on a single winner system. Two thirds of the seats in the People's Assembly will be elected based on the closed list system. For more on the list system, read here. The Book of Lists.

The number of candidates on each party list differs. Voters will elect a fixed number of party based candidates depending on the voting district.

North Cairo will elect 10 party based deputies. Nasr City will elect eight. Cairo's four districts will return 36 MPs from the party list system.

The city is divided into nine districts which will produce 18 MPs from the single winner system. 

When Did Parties Gain Recognition? 
The Nour Party (Salafis) was founded in the coastal city of Alexandria. It won official recognition on June 12, 2011. The Islamist coalition could win as many as 30 percent of parliament's seats.

Okay, I will update this as time allows. ~WMB

Updated November 14, 2011 4:00 p.m.
Updated November 15, 2011 10:00 a.m.; 4:35 p.m.
Updated November 16, 2011 11;04 a.m. 

Sources
Al Masry Al Youm
Ahram Online
Al Ahram Weekly
Al Jazeera
New York Times
Washington Post
Interviews
AUC Today
Daily News Egypt
Carnegie Endowment

Governance, Accountability and Stakeholders in Egypt

This semester I am teaching a class at the American University in Cairo called "Governance, Accountability, and Stakeholder Negotiation. It is a masters level class in public policy. It is a lot of fun, and we have been doing a lot of reading on how to improve governance in the Middle East and Africa. For example, we have read the Ibrahim Index as well as the World Bank MENA governance News and Notes.

This week, we were very lucky to have a special guest. Dr. Samer Soliman came and spoke to our class. He is the author of an important book just published by Stanford University Press. The book is titled The Autumn of Dictatorship: Fiscal Crisis and Political Change Under Mubarak.  In this book, Dr. Soliman evaluates the Egyptian budget to get lessons about allocation patterns, and the character of the authoritarian Egyptian state.

Here are some of his comments (paraphrased) on governance and accountability.

Accountability

The main issue of the Army is the budget. The second issue is that the Army has an economic empire. The military empire is off budget. If you examine the details of the Egyptian budget, you will not see it, but the evidence is all around us. One concern for the transition is that the Egyptian military is trying to prevent the new president from having power over the budget. 

It will likely take a while to move the military to its proper place in society. In Spain, the transition to democracy took 15 years. Currently in Egypt, we are operating under an interim constitution. At the moment, there is no article in the constitution that has a popular monitoring of the budget.  

We need an army, and we need a state. There has actually been a long term weakening of the Army since Sadat. The Nasser regime was really a military regime. This is less true today. In Iraq under Saddam, there was no distance at all between the regime and the state. This is also true of Syria today. In Egypt, there is some distance. The military is not divided along sectarian lines, like the Syrian military. It is important to get the military budget into the state budget. Right now, there is a lack of civilian control of the budget. 

Taxation plays an important role in accountability. Taxation in Egypt is currently corrupt and inefficient. Democracy facilitates the task of taxation because it enhances popular legitimacy. We also need progressive taxation. 


Stakeholders


With regard to stakeholders under the Mubarak Regime, there were no real political parties. There were just pressure groups. The opposition parties had no chance to rule. New political parties are emerging. In the future, we will have real political parties in Egypt. Syndicates will be much more important. There was no real syndicate life under the old regime. The syndicates can play an important role as an instrument of bargaining and problem solving. Many social groups in Egypt do not have real power. The Egyptian diaspora is important. Civil society will be more important in the new period. The SCAF is pushing the diaspora aside because they are dangerous. They are a huge asset in terms of their money, their knowledge, and their connections. 


Elections

It is not correct that the SCAF will be appointing all 100 members of the task force to write the constitution. Rather, they will set the criteria of how people for the task force are selected. The parliamentary elections will be in November. Then, there will hopefully be presidential elections, although it is vague. The constitution should be drafted within 6 months after the presidential elections. There is no guarantee that the constitutional drafting will be finished in the transition period. 


Egyptian Social Democratic Party

The party I belong to is the SDP. It is objectively, the best party in Egypt, and you should join it. {laughter}. We respect the market economy, but we also believe in a welfare state, and we support social justice. Our party is based on the assumption that economic development needs to create opportunities for the poor, but still be based on the market. We want to give people the instruments and means to defend their rights. It is creative conciliation between the market, and social democracy. 

Samer Soliman of Egyptian Social Democratic Party: Background and Influences

Interview with Dr. Samer Soliman, June 6, 2011. Interview conducted by Dr. Warigia Bowman, Assistant Professor, American University, School of Global Affairs and Public Policy.

Samer Soliman is a Professor of Political Science at the American University in Cairo. He is also a founding member, and a member of the facilitating committee of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party. He is currently being encouraged by close advisors to consider a run for the Egyptian Parliament, but has not made up his mind.

W: Where are you from in Egypt?

S: I am from a middle class family. Both of my parents were teachers. I am from a neighborhood called EEbaasir. (sp?) which is a neighborhood near downtown Cairo located near the Coptic Orthodox Cathedral. I attended the Egyptian French School. I did my undergraduate studies in the Faculty of Economics at Cairo University, my masters in Sociology at American University in Cairo, and earned my doctorate in Paris at the Sciences Po.

I grew up in a politicized family. Many people in my family were interested in or engaged in politics. I was raised in a secular family. My family was Christian, but secular. My mother is religious. My father was a communist.

W: Is there a difference in the way which Christians and Muslims view politics in Egypt?

S: They may view politics slightly differently. At the time of the July Regime, in 1952 most people in Egypt were apolitical. Egyptians were encouraged to support parties, but never to participate. Lately, a sectarian spirit is increasing in Egyptian society. I was never raised as a Copt. I was raised as a nationalist, in a secular home, that was somehow leftist.

It was not until university that I began to discover my Christian identity. I fell in love with a Muslim girl. It was leading nowhere. Your options in Egypt, if you are a Christian man are to convert to Islam or to emigrate. The society does not accept for Christian men to marry Muslim women.

Until university, I had never experienced discrimination as a Christian. In time, I understood the intensity of the sectarian issue in Egypt. My mother had told me there is discrimination, but I had not personally experienced it [until the time of my romance] In the army, I understood the sectarian issue. It is a corrupt institution based on wasta. They ask you when you come in, do you have wasta? It was astonishing.

W: Tell me about your experiences in the Army.

S: I served in the Air Force in the early 1990s, 1991/2. The Army, like armies all over the world, is very paternalistic. Discrimination is very strong against the poor and uneducated. More than anything else, upper Egyptians are discriminated against especially. People would make fun of them, tease them, harass them about their accent. [If you are Upper Egyptian and wealthy and have wasta you are okay. ] The worst thing is if you are Upper Egyptian and are also poor.

The Army was a rich experience for me. I got in deep touch with the peasants, uneducated peasants from deep in the Egyptian countryside. [It was an amazing social education.] There is strong solidarity among soldiers with regard to the big monster, the institution of the military. We were not given any deep lessons about national security. The enemy here is Israel. Also, you learned to shoot. . . .