Reacting to the Swearing in of Morsy as Egypt's President

A Morsy supporter prays on Egyptian flag after presidential announcement.

 

June 24, 2012. Photo Credit Mohamed Hesham

Dear readers

Mohamed Morsy is now officially Egypt's president. He does not have very many powers, to be sure. Most of the power in the country is still in the hand's of the Supreme Council of Armed Forces, aka the military junta.

The good news is that there is a civilian president of Egyptian descent running (sort of) the country. The Revolution has indeed achieved a victory in this sense.To the extent that this development is worth celebrating the Revolution continues.

Remember, there is no parliament in Egypt right now. There is no constitution written by the people. The SCAF keeps unilaterally amending the Constitution, which is completely in violation of all constitutional and legal principles.I found Morsy's comments that he will respect the military somewhat laughable, considering that in actual fact, he serves at the will of the junta. Morsy promises to preserve military's rights.

A cynic might say that the SCAF is simply allowing Morsy's victory as a way of maintaining the veneer of progress. I really respect Abdel Rahman, and this is the line he subscribes too. Let us call it the "marriage of convenience" hypothesis. Morsy Loves You. Egypt runs on the fuel of rumors, and many say that Morsy and the SCAF struck a deal before his victory. Another concern is that a lot of Saudi and possibly Qatari money fueled the Morsy campaign. One of the more interesting rumours I heard at AUC was that Hamas was threatening to blow up key bridges and infrastructure if Morsy did not win. 

I disagree with Robert Fisk writing in the Independent (United Kingdom),Egypt Has No Constitution, Parliament or Control Egypt calmed down considerably after the election of Mohammed Morsy. The stock market rebounded, and an air of calm suffused New Cairo at least. Many were upset, but sort of adopted the stiff upper lip motto.  That being said, a pro Shafiq sit in continues in Nasr City.

In juicy gossip, apparently Shafiq went to Abu Dhabi with (allegedly) thousands of tons of luggage in tow after his defeat. If this story is true, this kind of fairly blatant corruption makes one think that perhaps it is best Shafiq lost. One of the big challenges facing Morsy is to begin prosecuting corrupt officeholders from the Mubarak government seriously. Here is the FJP platform. More analysis later. FJP political program from their very nice English language web page. The biggest issue facing Morsy is improving Egypt's ailing economy.

Here is an interesting article on the way forward for activists. Taking Stock: what comes after the election for activists?

Drafting Egypt's Constitution

Dear Readers

I apologize for my absence, I have been attending to urgent family matters, and have not had time to write enough.

But I am back, and recommitted, Ilhamdillulah!

So, what is new? As is usual there is a lot going on in Egypt these days. My biggest worry regarding democracy is secularism and the constitution. According to an article on NPR by Soraya Sarhaddi Nelson, Unease Grows Over Islamist Political Agenda in Egypt, Parliament has handpicked a 100 member panel that has begun meeting to write a new Egyptian constitution. 

The worry is where this leaves Christians, Bahai and other religious minorities. Is there room to be secular in Egypt? According to that article, as many of two-thirds of the panel members are Islamist or allies. "Only a handful of women and Christians were selected to take part." Several secular panelists have since quit the constitutional panel in protest.

On March 23rd, hundreds protested against the formation of a constitution writing assembly, Protesters reject formation of constitution-writing assembly. Egypt Independent. Protesters rallied in front of the High Court of Justice to demand that the SCAF relinquish power to a civilian government. They also protested against the composition of the group who will draft Egypt's constitution. As of now, MPs will constitute half of that group's membership. The other half are to be composed of experts from other fields.

On March 24th, parliament members from the Free Egyptians Party, the Revolution Continues Coalition, and the Egyptian Social Democratic Party pulled out of talks regarding the composition of the constitutional drafting committee. Adl Party and Karama party representatives walked out of the session as well. The dissenters accused the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party and the far right Islamist Nour party of dominating the Constitutional committee.

~WMB

Names of women in Egyptian parliament

Dear readers

My beloved graduate student Heba Galal has gotten me the names of women in parliament.

You can find all the names of candidates in Shorouk News but in Arabic,

 

Here is the website  :-

http://shorouknews.com/news/view.aspx?id=964be8e0-2cc9-42d3-bd48-926467373c67

Here are the names of the candidates of women in the parliament:-

Lists (332 seats)

1. Margret Azer  (Al-Wafd /workers)

Second district of Cairo Nasr city

2. Sana Ahmed Mohamed Gamal El-Din (workers / Egyptian Social Democratic Party)

Second district of Assuit “Al Fateh”

3. Hanan Saad  Aboul Gheit Hassan (workers / Al-Wafd) 

Damietta Governorate

4. Azza Mohamed Ibrahim El Gerf (farmer/Freedom and Justice) 

Second district of Giza (Bulaq)

5. Magda Hassan Alnuichi (workers / Al Wafd)

Ismailia Governorate

6. Huda Muhammad Anwar Abdul Rahman Ghania(Categories / Freedom and Justice) 

Second district of Qaliubiya ”Shubra Al Khaimah”

Individuals (166 seats)

7. Nehad  Al-Qasim Syed Abdul Wahab Khudair (categories / Freedom and Justice) 

Benisuef Governorate

10 candidates are being recruited by SCAF in the parliament-- among them 2 women

8. Suzey Adley Nashed

9. Brian Malak Kamal

Egyptian Parliament convenes amid protests

Egypt's lower house of Parliament, the People's Assembly, convened yesterday, Monday the 23rd of January. It's opening was contentious, as protesters rallied to demand an end to military trials, a handover of power to civilians, and retribution for martyrs.

Doctors marched from the Doctors Syndicate on Qasr al Aini Street. Meanwhile artists and intellectuals held a march from the Cairo Opera House. The so-called "Creativity Front" demanded protection for freedom of creativity.

As many as 2000 protesters lined the street leading to Parliament, which was protected by iron gates, riot police the Central Security Forces, who were in turn protected--somewhat oddly in my view--by hundreds of Salafis and MB members.

Noha El-Hennawy comments that it is not clear how powerful the parliament is in relation to the ruling military council. The MB Democratic Alliance holds 235 seats (47%), the Salafis 135, the moderate Wafd 38 and the Egyptian Bloc 35. There are 498 seats. A variety of independents, including NDP remnants, hold the remaining seats.

Supreme Constitutional Court Vice President Tahani al-Gebali states that the military council still holds the right to ratify or veto bills. This right comes from the temporary constitution in place which was partly written by military decree last spring.

Despite its drawbacks, the Egypt Independent observes that this is the "first fairly elected legislative body in nearly six decades." (Noha El Hennawy, "Egypt's New People's Assembly Swears in Today, but Powers Are Dubious," Al Masry Al Youm, January 24, 2012)

Egypt's Parliament voted Mohamed Saad al Katatny of the Freedom and Justice Party as People's Assembly speaker during its first session. Katatny received 399 votes. Before donning the mantle as speaker, Katatny served as secretary general of the Muslim Brotherhood affiliated Freedom and Justice party. In his first speech, he stated tat "We want to build a new Egypt: a constitutional, democratic and modern Egypt." (Staff "Egypt's New Parliament elects FJP figure as speaker," Egypt Independent, January 24, 2012.)

Elections for the Shura council will begin later this month and end in February. The two chambers are slated to choose a 100 member panel to draft a new constitution, although at this point, anything could happen.

~WMB

Good News and Bad News

Photo Credit Al Jazeera. Protester shouts slogans during clashes today.

Dear readers

Well with regard to the elections results, there is good news and there is bad news.

Let's start with the less than perfect news first. The FJP and Al Nour continue to lead in the second phase of the People's Assembly elections.

Some bad news is that there is fire in Tahrir. My father was just there. Apparently, some of the field hospitals have been attacked, and twitter is reporting that surgeons are needed. There is a big march to bury Sheikh Emmad Effat, but the Salafis are not present. 

The good news is that the Egyptian Bloc is retaining their position as a solid third. In a first past the post system, like in the US, third does not sound good. But in a partially list based system, third gives the liberal and secular Egyptian Bloc some real power in Parliament.

Al Wafd and Al Wasat are doing well in Sharqiya. Al Nour is dominating in Suez. 

Secular activists have not given up though. As I have said, it is remarkable that the Egyptian Bloc and other moderate and liberal parties are doing this well, particularly considering that they just formed in March. There is real potential for infighting between Salafis and the FJP. As Adel Soliman of the International Center for Future and Strategic Studies points out, the liberal parties will be needed to pass laws or block them.

Several smaller parties are throwing their weight behind the Bloc to show a more united front. (Daily News Egypt 11/12) Members of the Bloc are going into rural areas, and talking to local notables.

I personally think it is a serious mistake that the Revolution Continues refuses to coordinate with the Egyptian Bloc.

The Glass is One Third Full

Dear Readers

Well, the FJP (aka Muslim Brotherhood) was expected to win big, so no surprise there. However, the Al Nour is a big surprise, and frankly, a shock.

However, I am very happy that the Egyptian Bloc, which consists of Free Egyptians, the Social Democratic Party and Tagamoo looks like it is doing well. I spoke to a top party member at Groppi cafe yesterday, and he tells me that he is getting an outpouring of support for the remaining two areas where elections have not yet been held. At least there will be some, significant liberal and secular representation in parliament.

Those radicals and leftists who urged people not to vote made a big tactical error. In addition, it would seem that in the next set of elections, all liberal and secular parties would be well advised to work in one bloc, and unite forces.

As I tell my students, democracy is an iterative process. We need to prepare to do better next time.

~WMB

Very preliminary Election Outcomes

Updated December 6, 10:54 a.m.

This post will summarize election outcomes in an easy to read format. The best way to find up the minute info on this is to look here. Jaadaliya Election Results . 

The value added of looking here is that I just give you the bare facts. It is a bit easier to read.

According to Jaadaliya, "Exit polls and preliminary vote count show that the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists are expected to finish first and second in the first phase with the liberal Egyptian Bloc a distant third."

Votes will supposedly be announced tonight, although they said that yesterday too. Worried laughter . . .

• No official results as of Sunday, results and percentages are still trickling in . . . .
• Also, apparently (as of Sunday December 4, 2011) there is some confusion with what to do when the extra votes. i.e. how will the seats be allocated for parties who make the cutoff, but get few votes.
• As of Tuesday December 6, 2011, there was very low turnout for the runoffs last night. One of my students works for the UN observation team and she noted this.
• This cool chart was published by the Arabist on Saturday. It may no longer be up to date, but gives some preliminary visuals. Chart for Round One of the Elections

My latest information is that no woman has been elected in the first round.

I will get results up as fast as I can. Lists are completed, still working on single winners. All results are not final. Runoffs for first leg of single-winner tomorrow. (Monday, December 5)


Cairo (54 seats) 

Cairo List 1 (10 Seats) 
FJP (39%)=4 Seats

Egyptian Bloc(23.5%)=3 Seats
Al Nour (5.36%)=1seat 
Al Wafd (6.23%)=1 seat

Cairo List 2 (8 Seats)
FJP(35.65%)=3
Egyptian Bloc(26.22%)=2
Al Nour(11.1%)=1
Al Wafd(7.22%)=1
Al Wasat(5.76%)=1


Cairo List 3 (Qasr al Nil)(8 Seats)
FJP(39%)=3
Egyptian Bloc(18.33%)=2
Wafd(14.67%)=1
Nour(14.52%)=1
RCA(3.45%)=1


Cairo List 4 (Helwan)(10 Seats)
FJP(40.48%)=4
Nour(19.35%)=2
Egyptian Bloc(13.14%)=1
Al Wafd(7.32%)=1
Revolution Continue(3.62%)=1
Al Wasat(3.39%)=1

 
Cairo Single Winner Seats. 

#1 : Egyptian Bloc vs. FJP
#2 : FJP vs. Egyptian Block (Yeah!)
#3 : FJP vs. El Adl, Al Nour (wow!) or Independent.
#4:  Heliopolis: Amr Hamzawy with 53% of the vote (Mabruk!) Former NDP vs. FJP (wow! Scary) 
#5: FJP vs. Al Nour (Yikes!)
#6:  FJP vs. Egyptian Bloc, Gamila Ismail did not make it.
#7:  FJP vs. Al Nour or former NDP. (Sigh)
#8: FJP vs.FJP.
#9:  Mostafa Bakry wins, Independent. Ramadan Omar wins, FJP.

Alexandria (24 Seats) 

Alexandria List #1 (6 Seats) 


FJP (34.41%)=2
Al Nour (29.85%)=2
Egyptian Bloc (16.02%)=1
Wafd (6.40%)=1




Alexandria List #2(10 Seats)

FJP (35.32%)=4
Al Nour (32.96%)=3
Revolution Continues (10%)=1
Egyptian Bloc  (6.15%)=1
Al Wafd(5.55%)=1


Alexandria single winner Seats
working on this . . . .





Damietta (12 seats) 


Damietta List
FJP
Al Nour
Al Wasat

Kafr Al Sheikh (18 Seats)

FJP (31%)
Al Nour (22%)
Al Wafd (15%)
Union
National Party  (NDP)
Democratic Front
Freedom Party (NDP)
Egyptian Citizen (NDP)


Fayoum (18 Seats) 
Fayoum List 1
FJP
Al Nour
Freedom Party(NDP)
Revolution Continues


Fayoum List 2
FJP(2Seats)
Al Nour (near tie) (2 Seats)
Egyptian Bloc (no seats)


Port Said (6 Seats) 
Port Said List 
FJP=32% (2 Seats)
Al Nour=20% (1 Seat)
Al Wafd=14%
Al Wasat=13%


Red Sea (6 Seats)
Red Sea List 
FJP=35% (2 Seats)
Egyptian Bloc=17% (One Seat)
Egyptian Citizen (NDP)= 14% (One Seat)
Al Wafd=10%
Freedom Party (NDP)=8%
Al Wasat=6%
Revolution Continues=4%

Assiut (24 Seats)
Assiut List 1
FJP=44%
Al Nour=23%
Egyptian Bloc=22%
Wafd
Nasserist
Peace
Wasat



Assiut List 2
FJP > 40%
Al Nour
Egyptian Bloc



Luxor(6 seats)
Luxor List 
FJP=40%
Al Nour
Egyptian Bloc
Al Wafd


Luxor Single Winner (Runoff)

1.Independent
2.FJP/NDP
3.FJP

Cairo's 6th District

Paper Youm 7 is reporting that

"The Freedom and Justice Party has won 70 percent of the votes in Cairo's 6th district, according to FJP official Osama Sedky. He said the FJP was followed by the Egyptian Bloc, the Continuing Revolution list, and al-Wafd Party."


It looks like a woman has a strong chance in Cairo's 6th District. Independent candidate Gameela Ismail has made a strong showing. The Free Egyptians are also polling well.