An Eerily Quiet Election Day in Egypt

Second round of Presidential elections. Photo Credit Virginie Nguyen, Al Masry al Youm.

The first day of presidential elections in Egypt has been extremely quiet. We kept everyone indoors today, out of worry for our safety, but it was one of the quietest days I have ever experienced in Cairo. I noticed that the muezzin gave a particularly elegant, and flowery call this afternoon in the call to prayer, but that was the only unusual item of the day.

After so many elections, two for the peoples assembly, two for the shura, and now two for the President, citizens are certainly facing election fatigue. Furthermore, Thursday's decision has invalidated all the hard work that went into electing the only democratic body in Egypt, the parliament.

The military (the SCAF) is in full control of the government, and everyone is in shock. The SCAF has full legislative powers until parliament is reelected. If Shafiq wins the presidency, the SCAF will hold both legislative and executive powers. The judiciary was never reformed, so represents part of the Mubarak regime. Jaadaliya reports that court rulings represent a blow to civilian forces.

 The euphoria that reigned a year ago after the revolution has been replaced by a kind of despair. But activists are not giving up. They continue to organize. They continue to build their party, and strengthen their ground and grassroots contacts. Their faith is inspiring, and the revolution is still alive.

Vote turnout has been extremely low.  Two different projects are afoot, one to boycott the elections, and one to turn in invalidated ballots. Activists plan vote nullification campaign.

Confusion after court rulings in Egypt

Last night I was meeting with a friend who is active in a major secular party in Egypt. There was some confusion about the future of the party. Yesterday's court ruling invalidated all the seats won by independents in parliament: approximately 1/3 of the seats. As a result, the parliament is effectively disbanded, because there are not enough people in parliament to hold sessions.

Hundreds in Tahrir Protest against Supreme Court rulings.

I cannot verify this, but my friend said that even if Shafiq wins, if the Parliament is disbanded, there will be no one to swear him in. Therefore, whoever wins the presidential election may not actually be in power until the parliament is reconstituted.

Egypt's high court calls for dissolution of Parliament.

I was at the Marriot in Zamalek for a lecture on "The Arab Awakening: One Year On." The lecture was held by the AUC. After the lecture, I spoke with my friend on the outdoor patio, so that he could smoke a cigarette. Who did we run into but Amr Hamzawy, my former colleague at the PPAD. He was with his beautiful wife, Basma. He looked a little stressed, because he is one of the independents who have now lost their seats. But, he was optimistic.

Blow to Transition as Court invalidates Parliament.

Many at the conference I attended last night, referred to the events as a "coup." Further, my friend suggested that the courts are not independent, and are actually controlled by the SCAF. Indeed, the courts have been operating with little or no reform since the Revolution.

Parliament's Dissolution Could Postpone Presidential Election.

Ironically, I had a girl's lunch at one thirty, and one of my colleagues who works at the UNDP told us that one third of parliament would be dismissed, and that Shafiq would be allowed to run. By two thirty, her predictions were confirmed. 

A worrying weekend as the Egyptian presidential election approaches

I am here in Cairo for June. Here in Cairo, things are a bit tense. My students are concerned about me. They worry that I do not have enough family to make staying in Cairo during the upcoming election safe. No matter, I have various colleagues, and we live in Rehab, which is likely the safest place in the greater metropolitan area.

Multiple political matters remain up in the air. First, who will participate in the Constituent Assembly, which is supposed to write Egypt's new constitution, is a matter of great contention. The constituent assembly is supposed to be formed of 100 people representing various components of Egyptian society. Yet, its composition has drawn enormous criticism from secular and liberal forces, including ElBaradei. Second, the Supreme Constitutional Court could disband parliament over the legality of the voting in the recent parliamentary elections. Third, this Saturday and Sunday a presidential runoff is scheduled between Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak's last prime minister, and the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsy. Shafiq may yet be disqualified under the Political Isolation Law. The Supreme Constitutional Court may declare the law illegal. Or, the court may choose not to hear the case.  However, the Court is scheduled to hear the case on June 14, 2012, only two days before the scheduled runoff.

If Shafiq is elected, and then disqualified, it could throw political matters--and the country-- into turmoil.

Shafiq is clearly the SCAF's preferred candidate, and his disqualification would loosen their grip on power. Also, the proximity of a potential court decision to the runoff is nerve-wracking. On the way home on the bus, everyone was making nervous jokes about our safety. One of my students says he is going to Ain Sokhna for the election. We asked him why he thinks Ain Sokhna is safer? He said, it is not safer, but at least it will be relaxing and fun. Good point.