Reacting to the Swearing in of Morsy as Egypt's President

A Morsy supporter prays on Egyptian flag after presidential announcement.

 

June 24, 2012. Photo Credit Mohamed Hesham

Dear readers

Mohamed Morsy is now officially Egypt's president. He does not have very many powers, to be sure. Most of the power in the country is still in the hand's of the Supreme Council of Armed Forces, aka the military junta.

The good news is that there is a civilian president of Egyptian descent running (sort of) the country. The Revolution has indeed achieved a victory in this sense.To the extent that this development is worth celebrating the Revolution continues.

Remember, there is no parliament in Egypt right now. There is no constitution written by the people. The SCAF keeps unilaterally amending the Constitution, which is completely in violation of all constitutional and legal principles.I found Morsy's comments that he will respect the military somewhat laughable, considering that in actual fact, he serves at the will of the junta. Morsy promises to preserve military's rights.

A cynic might say that the SCAF is simply allowing Morsy's victory as a way of maintaining the veneer of progress. I really respect Abdel Rahman, and this is the line he subscribes too. Let us call it the "marriage of convenience" hypothesis. Morsy Loves You. Egypt runs on the fuel of rumors, and many say that Morsy and the SCAF struck a deal before his victory. Another concern is that a lot of Saudi and possibly Qatari money fueled the Morsy campaign. One of the more interesting rumours I heard at AUC was that Hamas was threatening to blow up key bridges and infrastructure if Morsy did not win. 

I disagree with Robert Fisk writing in the Independent (United Kingdom),Egypt Has No Constitution, Parliament or Control Egypt calmed down considerably after the election of Mohammed Morsy. The stock market rebounded, and an air of calm suffused New Cairo at least. Many were upset, but sort of adopted the stiff upper lip motto.  That being said, a pro Shafiq sit in continues in Nasr City.

In juicy gossip, apparently Shafiq went to Abu Dhabi with (allegedly) thousands of tons of luggage in tow after his defeat. If this story is true, this kind of fairly blatant corruption makes one think that perhaps it is best Shafiq lost. One of the big challenges facing Morsy is to begin prosecuting corrupt officeholders from the Mubarak government seriously. Here is the FJP platform. More analysis later. FJP political program from their very nice English language web page. The biggest issue facing Morsy is improving Egypt's ailing economy.

Here is an interesting article on the way forward for activists. Taking Stock: what comes after the election for activists?

Anguish at Shafiq loss

While Morsy supporters celebrated their candidates win, many Shafiq supporters were despondent, depressed, or even hysterical at his loss.

Shafiq supporters in disbelief after election loss.

Shafiq supporters devastated by loss.

My office this morning was like a morgue. My coworkers, Christian and Muslim alike, were miserable, scared, and uncertain. I tried to comfort them, telling them now is the time for activism, not the time to lose faith.

~WMB

Morsy wins. What Now?

Photo Credit, Al Jazeera.

Press conference melts down, Al Jazeera cuts away to jubilant crowds in Tahrir. People flooding into Tahrir.

I guess this means the election was free and fair at some level, given that the SCAF would have preferred Shafiq.

Morsy wins with 51.73% of vote. 

At 5:10 p.m. 

Please note that nearly half of the people who voted supported Shafiq, in part because he is secular. Morsy has quite a task ahead of him. It was a very narrow victory. There is going to be a large opposition to Morsy rule. Also, many ballots were invalidated. Farouk Sultan said as many as 800,000 people invalidated ballots.

Shafiq supporters in tears. Photo credit, Al Jazeera.

The next task? The constitution. The test of whether Morsy is a true revolutionary is whether he establishes a  Constituent Assembly that is truly representative of the Egyptian people. Another test will be how people are in fact chosen for that Constituent Assembly. The process of selection, as I have said repeatedly, is of the utmost importance.

5:16 p.m. Tahrir is going absolutely wild. People are chanting "The Revolution Continues."

5:18 p.m. People in Tahrir are chanting "Down with military rule." 

The Tahrir protest/celebration is likely to stay in as a sit in against military rule.

6:37 p.m. Here in El Rehab, some young men are walking through the courtyards, drumming, shaking their tambourines, and chanting in a jolly way. The children in the apartment complexes, who are all down playing in the yard, after a day of being cooped up inside by worried parents, are dancing and having fun. Of course, the children, have no idea what is going on. Cars are honking their horns. Is all this festivity a sign that the old, culturally rich, exciting, interesting Egypt is back? Perhaps it is a good omen for happy times ahead.

From twitter

 ‏@cairocitylimits

Judging by celebrations downtown, egypt is more likely to turn into Ibiza than iran

Retweeted by Warigia Bowman

~WMB

Waiting with Baited Breath for Egyptian Presidential Election Results

Photo Credit. Ahmed Al Masry. Thousands of protesters gather in Tahrir Square to participate in Friday of "Rejecting Coup d'etat", Cairo, 22 June 2012, against Constitutional Declaration supplement issued by SCAF.

Dear readers

For those of you in Egypt, I know nothing that you do not know. Everyone is wondering who the presidential victor will be, Morsy or Shafiq?

Breaking News: SCAF and MB may be in negotiations    (11:41 p.m., Friday, Cairo time)

I was at a conference on defense spending and its distortions of various world economies today. It was held at the AUC in Moataz Al Alfi hall. The entire day, we kept checking in with each other, "have you heard anything?"

I asked my boss, whom I think is very thoughtful in these matters. I said to her, "does it really matter if Egypt elects a president, given that Parliament has been dismissed?" She said that indeed, it matters deeply. People need to have a sense that the process will be carried through. Also, if Parliament is dismissed, the presidency would arguably be the democratic bulwark in the country.

I went to Maadi yesterday to see my good friend from the UNDP who is monitoring the elections.   She focused on the fact that Egypt is in a learning process regarding democracy. The highway from Downtown to New Cairo is completely plastered with giant billboards for both the Presidential candidates, right next to each other in many cases. This picture gives you a sense.

Photo credit Reuters. Morsy signs are in Red, Shafiq signs are blue.

If you would like a good background piece to catch up on the situation check out the Carnegie Endowment for International Piece.

The Egyptian Political System in Dissaray by Nathan J. Brown. 

People are worried that violence could break out if one side or the other disputes the results.

I love this photo published in the Egyptian Independent today. It shows a former pasha, with protesters sitting on his statue, Morsy posters plastered everywhere. There is the spire of a mosque on the left hand side, and a glimpse of the heart of high class Cairo, the Semiramis Intercontinental, directly opposite the US Embassy on the right hand side of the photo.

Photo Credit Virginie Nguyen, Egypt Independent.

For non-Egyptian readers, some selections from today's press.


Morsy Urges Fast Election Results

Shafiq Claims Victory in Egyptian Presidential Runoff

Egyptian Media warns of Massacre of the Century

Election's Political Context Flawed, Say Monitors. 

Mursi, Shafiq campaigns both claim victory in Egyptian presidential race


Hoping for the best, most democratic outcome. ~WMB

Democracy under assault after Egyptian election

Egyptian soldiers near Tahrir in February 2011. Photo Credit Al Ahram.

Let me begin my post by telling you the word on the street, and then, I will update you on the "official news."

First of all, a completely non-scientific sample of people in my life produced the following election results. My office manager, who is actually a very observant Muslim, said that "at least if Shafiq is elected, we will have a civilized country, not a religious one." I think she meant civilian, or secular, but point well taken. My taxi driver had no idea what the dismissal of parliament meant, but was very gung ho about Shafiq. My favorite tour operator, who is very literate in both English and Arabic, and quite politically savvy chose Morsi, as the more revolutionarily appropriate choice.

Anyway, what I have heard this morning in New Cairo from a fellow law professor and a colleague at the UN is that Morsi has won, unofficially. That being said, the SCAF has also issued a decree strictly limiting the powers of the presidency. They also told me that the SCAF will appoint the Constituent Assembly, draft a constitution in three months, and then additional parliamentary elections will be held. Further, there is buzz that the SCAF will make all provisions in the Constitution appealable to the Supreme Constitutional Court. I have also heard that the military now has the power to arrest civilians for assembling in public, and other infractions.

Brief thoughts. If Morsy won, then the election was more or less free and fair, because the SCAF wanted Shafiq, one of their own. Then again, what is the point of having a President in the absence of a parliament. It is also yet to be seen if the president will actually be allowed to assume power. Further, I am not a fan of this rushed constitutional process. I also do not think that you can write a constitution from the top down. It must be a consensus process which is widely accepted by the populace. This cannot be attained if the SCAF appoints the members it desires with no feedback from Parliament or other major social organizations. Finally, as I have noted in previous posts, the courts are completely unreconstructed from before the Revolution. They are all Mubarak appointees. The Supreme Constitutional Court members were all picked by the former regime, which feels a lot like the current regime today. It is lunacy to give the Court the power to evaluate which clauses it approves. This is legally problematic at multiple levels. It will take me time to digest that.

Okay, so now, what does the paper say? Al Masry Al Youm says that according to their count (unofficial) Morsy wins with 51.3 percent of the vote. The news also confirms the expansion of military powers. Amended Article 60 gives the military to appoint the Constituent Assembly if the CA developed by the parliament does not fulfil its role.

Check this out.

The SCAF, the president, the prime minister, the Supreme Judicial Council, or one-fifth of the Constituent Assembly have the right to contest any clause issued by the Constituent Assembly if “it is in opposition to the goals of the revolution or its basic principles… or the common principles of Egypt’s past constitutions.”

The assembly would have to revisit the contested clause or clauses within 15 days, and if the contention holds the Supreme Constitutional Court should have the final word.

What?? So, the Supreme Constitutional Court gets to rule on the constitutionality of the Constitution? Very puzzling.

According to Al Ahram, which is nominally state controlled, Morsi fans are already celebrating his election.  AUC Professor, former MP, and liberal political figure Amr Hamzawy laments the restrictions on the newly elected president's powers.

Here is the text of the SCAF amendments (Made by decree) to the constitutional document. Given the frequency with the SCAF rules by decree, the document is beginning to look like a list of military orders.   

So what is the score card? Parliament: mainly Islamist, but some secular forces, few regime forces, only democratically elected institution in Egypt. Status. Dissolved, technically, but impressively defiant. . Judiciary: strong hold of Mubarak Regime appointees. Status. Very powerful. SCAF: the military, secular, but corrupt with strong ties to Mubarak Regime. Status: Currently holds executive and legislative power. President: election results not yet finalized, but Islamist. Status: unclear if president will really be able to be sworn in. 

Here is the New York Times take. The bottom line is that a power struggle is emerging between those who want a civilian state and those who want a military state. Within the coalition of those who do not want a military state, there is a conflict between Islamists and secularists. The Islamists and secularists will have to find an accommodation if they wish to work together against the old forces of Mubarak, now embodied in the SCAF. That is not going to be an easy pill to swallow, but as always, I am cautiously optimistic.   

~WMB
  

An Eerily Quiet Election Day in Egypt

Second round of Presidential elections. Photo Credit Virginie Nguyen, Al Masry al Youm.

The first day of presidential elections in Egypt has been extremely quiet. We kept everyone indoors today, out of worry for our safety, but it was one of the quietest days I have ever experienced in Cairo. I noticed that the muezzin gave a particularly elegant, and flowery call this afternoon in the call to prayer, but that was the only unusual item of the day.

After so many elections, two for the peoples assembly, two for the shura, and now two for the President, citizens are certainly facing election fatigue. Furthermore, Thursday's decision has invalidated all the hard work that went into electing the only democratic body in Egypt, the parliament.

The military (the SCAF) is in full control of the government, and everyone is in shock. The SCAF has full legislative powers until parliament is reelected. If Shafiq wins the presidency, the SCAF will hold both legislative and executive powers. The judiciary was never reformed, so represents part of the Mubarak regime. Jaadaliya reports that court rulings represent a blow to civilian forces.

 The euphoria that reigned a year ago after the revolution has been replaced by a kind of despair. But activists are not giving up. They continue to organize. They continue to build their party, and strengthen their ground and grassroots contacts. Their faith is inspiring, and the revolution is still alive.

Vote turnout has been extremely low.  Two different projects are afoot, one to boycott the elections, and one to turn in invalidated ballots. Activists plan vote nullification campaign.

A worrying weekend as the Egyptian presidential election approaches

I am here in Cairo for June. Here in Cairo, things are a bit tense. My students are concerned about me. They worry that I do not have enough family to make staying in Cairo during the upcoming election safe. No matter, I have various colleagues, and we live in Rehab, which is likely the safest place in the greater metropolitan area.

Multiple political matters remain up in the air. First, who will participate in the Constituent Assembly, which is supposed to write Egypt's new constitution, is a matter of great contention. The constituent assembly is supposed to be formed of 100 people representing various components of Egyptian society. Yet, its composition has drawn enormous criticism from secular and liberal forces, including ElBaradei. Second, the Supreme Constitutional Court could disband parliament over the legality of the voting in the recent parliamentary elections. Third, this Saturday and Sunday a presidential runoff is scheduled between Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak's last prime minister, and the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsy. Shafiq may yet be disqualified under the Political Isolation Law. The Supreme Constitutional Court may declare the law illegal. Or, the court may choose not to hear the case.  However, the Court is scheduled to hear the case on June 14, 2012, only two days before the scheduled runoff.

If Shafiq is elected, and then disqualified, it could throw political matters--and the country-- into turmoil.

Shafiq is clearly the SCAF's preferred candidate, and his disqualification would loosen their grip on power. Also, the proximity of a potential court decision to the runoff is nerve-wracking. On the way home on the bus, everyone was making nervous jokes about our safety. One of my students says he is going to Ain Sokhna for the election. We asked him why he thinks Ain Sokhna is safer? He said, it is not safer, but at least it will be relaxing and fun. Good point.

Parsing the Egyptian Presidential Election Results

Women stand in line to cast their vote in Alexandria. Photo Credit Al Jazeera.

An Egyptian woman looks at her ballot. Photo Credit, Al Jazeera.

  
Should Egyptians accept the election results?

This is a tough question. It is puzzling that Shafiq outpolled Morsy. There is no question that the Muslim Brotherhood has the best ground game in town. However, for Shafiq to have beaten the Brotherhood, that means that the entire NDP apparatus, i.e. Mubarak's old party, is alive and well. It makes one wonder if there were not behind the scenes election violations that could not be viewed by observers? Allegations of vote buying have been made.  Okay, shaking off my paranoia, here is an interesting analysis of why Shafiq did so well.

Apparently, the secularists and leftists and revolutionaries split their votes between Shabaahi and Fotouh. Of course, vote splitting was to be expected. That said, the top four candidates all polled close to 25%. Given how close the election was, it would have been reasonable to hold a four way runoff. The PEC is not winning any friends in this election. First, they allowed Shafiq to run, even though the parliament banned members of the Mubarak regime from running. There is no question that the PEC's main client was the SCAF.  Second, the decisions of the PEC cannot be appealed.

Many Egyptians are not happy about the outcome. Tahrir was packed today. Issandr El Imrani asks why Egyptians should accept these elections.  Former President Jimmy Carter says his monitors could not observe the whole election, because his mission only got access a week before the race. Overall, however, Carter stated that the results of the election were acceptable.

More worrying than who won, in my view, is the fact that no constitution is in place, and as former President Jimmy Carter pointed out, the Egyptians are electing a president whose powers have not yet been defined. Strange days indeed.

After major protests on Monday, Tahrir Square is calm again.

Runoffs for the presidential elections are slated for the 16th and 17th of June.

Feloul or Islamist? Your choice

Dear readers

The first free and fair elections for President in Egypt's history are underway. Mohammed Morsy, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate is in a runoff with Ahmed Shafiq, a Mubarak appointed prime minister.

This leaves Egyptians with a stark choice. Morsy is arguably a revolutionary, but his strong, conservative religious views may make women, Christians, and secular people nervous. By contrast, Shafiq is definitely secular, and very experienced, but he is the preferred candidate of the Supreme Council of Armed Forces, and he is a Mubarak man. I believe that we are trapped between Scylla and Charybdis as was Homer, in the Odyssey.

Here is the take of the Voice of America.

The Egyptian Independent reports on the runoff.

El Ahram analyzes why Amr Moussa polled fifth place.

It is going to be a rough road ahead for Egyptians, and the region. At least this election is exciting!

~WMB

Egyptian Presidential Election, Protests, and the Politics of Drafting the New Constitution

An Egyptian girl street vendor displays dairy products for sale under electoral posters in Cairo, Egypt, Monday, April 23, 2012

(AP)

 

Well folks, it is a busy news day in Egypt!

There is a big protest in Tahrir. It was called by the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis. I like the concept, which is demanding a handover of power to civilians. I am less sanguine about the people who called it. The Free Front for Peaceful Change has refused to participate, saying the Islamists are hijacking the protests after abandoning the streets for months.

A Constituent Assembly to write Egypt's new constitution is being put together. A mediation committee has been established to end the impasse over the Assembly's make up, according to the Egypt Independent. So far, the parties in the mediation have agreed to grant 15 seats to the FJP ( Muslim Brotherhood) 7 seats to the Nour party (Salafis), and 4 to the Wafd party (center secular) out of the 40 seats to be occupied by political parties. If those numbers are correct, 26 seats have been chosen, leaving 14 to be filled by other political parties. It is not clear what algorithm has been used to date to fill the seats. A court ruling in March determined that the Constituent Assembly had to be reformed due to its lack of diversity. As someone outside this mediation, my concern is that it is not clear whether women, bedouins, Christians, leftists, secular persons, or new parties that are not Islamists are on this Assembly. There is a lot at stake here. If the new Egyptian Constitution is not well written, then it will be very difficult for Egypt to emerge into a full-fledged democracy. Check out an article that gives some insight into this process.

With regard to the Presidential election, the National Association for Change is attempting to agree on a single revolutionary candidate. Leftist lawyer, Khaled Ali is a human rights advocate who has been on the approved list of candidates. He has said he will waive his candidacy if a consensus candidate is chosen. The National Association for Change has stated that they support the following principals: the civilian democratic nature of the state, the guarantee of full citizenship rights without discrimination on the basis of religion, race or gender. The Association also said these ideas need to be included in the constitution. If the candidates fail to agree among themselves, a "committee of wise men" will be put together to make a binding choice, if the candidates fail to agree. On the gender equality piece, I hope a woman is on the committee.

With regard to the Mubarak approved choice of presidential candidates, Ahmed Shafiq, Hosni Mubarka's last prime minister , says he has the military and political experience to lead Egypt into a new democratic era. Huuhhh? I thought you were with the guy we fired last January 25th, Ahmed? He was disqualified by the Political Isolation Law, which banned former Mubarak officials, then 48 hours later, the Presidential Election Commission reinstated him. Shafiq has close military ties, and is certainly someone the SCAF (the ruling military junta) knows well, and would be comfortable with.