A Leader Worth Mourning: Samer Soliman (1968-2012)

As we prepare for Christmas, we celebrate a season of illumination, yet we also mourn many tragedies across the globe. This is appropriate, as Christmas is a time of endings as well as beginnings, and more subtly perhaps, it is also a continuation. The winter solstice is the shortest day of the year. It therefore represents an end as well as a beginning. The birth of Christ, over two thousand years ago represented the beginning of a new world religion, a continuation of revered Abrahamic beliefs, as well as the incorporation of ancient pagan, animist, and pharaonic traditions.

On this day, as we prepare for the 2013th celebration of the prophet whom we call Christ, I want to celebrate the life of one of the most influential politicians, activists, and scholars I have ever met: Dr. Samer Soliman. As I mourn his leaving this planet earth, I also am mourning the passage of a an ill-thought out, undemocratic constitution by the people of Egypt. I pray earnestly for the continuation of the Egyptian democratic opposition on this holy night. I ask all the people of Egypt, and of the world, to keep working to ensure that the promise of the Egyptian Revolution is fulfilled.

Samer would have wanted me to feel all of these feelings. Samer died after a battle with terminal cancer at the age of 44.  He was a Coptic Christian, who was nonetheless a fundamentally secular person. He was a journalist, and a brilliant scholar who wrote The Autumn of Dictatorship: Fiscal Crisis and Political Change in Egypt under Mubarak. He was a Professor of Political Economy at the American University in Cairo, and a founding member of the Egyptian Social Democratic Party. Ahram Online bids writer, activist Samer Soliman farewell.

Yet these dry facts, as impressive as they are, do not do justice to Samer's life. I do not have space to eulogize his life as a devoted spouse and family man to his beautiful wife Mary Shenoda. Nor is there room to discuss his stature as a professor at the American University in Cairo. Rather, I will focus on his work as an activist and a politician, since Egypt is facing a political crisis larger than perhaps any since the January 25th revolution itself. Farewell Samer Soliman (Egypt Independent)

Samer had a vision for the new Egypt.  Samer came from a political family, reared in Egypt's long tradition of secularism, which made Cairo the jewel of North Africa in the 1950s and early 1960s. He drew on these resources when he helped found the Social Democratic Party of Egypt shortly after the January 25th Revolution. I arrived in Cairo on January 25th, 2011, the first day of the revolution. While I tried to understand what was going on in my new home, Samer was on the barricades with students, farmers and workers, fighting valiantly to usher Egypt into a new era of democracy and human rights. He had long been involved in Egypt's historically strong labor movement. He reached out to the European social democratic parties, forged in Europe's struggle for democracy and labor rights in the 1920s, and revived after World War II in the 1950s.

Although Western news sources tend to focus on the Muslim Brotherhood, the Social Democratic Party, one of the few genuinely new post-revolutionary parties to emerge in Egypt, has made a huge mark in this time frame. In coalition with the Free Egyptians and Tagamoo, the SDP formed the Egyptian Bloc ("Kotla). In the new (now dissolved) parliament, the Bloc made an impressive showing for such a new party, winning 7 percent of the available seats. The Kotla became one of the top five parties, and the major party representing women, secularists, democrats, Nubians, bedouins, Copts, human rights advocates, and so many other underrepresented yet crucial segments of Egyptian society.

Inspired by Samer and the SDP, I decided that I needed to document the emergence of Egypt's emerging opposition. I spent countless hours speaking to Samer and other SDP members learning about this new political forces.  Samer spoke to my leadership class on the budget challenges facing the new Egyptian government. He kept the fire burning bright that Egypt could be a democratic country that had room for all constituents, and all citizens. He championed human rights, civil rights, democracy, and social justice.

What would Samer think of the recent constitutional referendum? He would be dissappointed, I am sure, perhaps even frustrated and angry, but he would tell us not to give up. Samer received his doctorate in political science from the prestigious Science Po in Paris, France. As an intellectual and a scholar, he would remind us that the French Revolution spanned decades. He would tell us that like our French compatriots centuries before, we must keep moving forward, clear in our objectives, inspired by the ideals of the Enlightenment.

I like to think that he would be cheered that the April 6 Movement is planning a march on the presidential palace to oppose this constitution that does not truly represent the Egyptian people. He would applaud the fact that after nearly a year of disunity, the Egyptian opposition has finally been galvanized. Indeed, the National Salvation Front, composed of the Constitution Party, Wafd, the Social Democratic Party, the popular current party, and the National Association for Change have stated that they will run for parliament on one list.

I believe that tonight, Samer looks down on us from Heaven. I pray that we remember the message of his life, and all take steps to ensure that his vision becomes a reality. I pray that the Egyptian opposition seizes the moment to unite, and move the revolution, and Egypt's democracy forward.

Merry Christmas Samer. Egypt has lost a great leader, a lion of a man. Like the Lion of Judah, we hear your call. May we reach the mountaintop that you pointed us toward. May the peace of Christ be with you, always.

Your comrade in arms, Warigia

First draft of new Egyptian Constitution released

Egypt's Constituent Assembly announced this Wednesday that it has finished the first draft of the new Egyptian Constitution. They released an unfinished draft to the Egyptian public on Wednesday, and encouraged public debate regarding the document. The draft leaves key questions unanswered. No sections address the future role of the military, for example. Egy[t Releases partial draft of new constitution, Abigail Hauslohner, Washington Post.

The Constituent Assembly comprises 100 persons. It is generally viewed as being dominated by Islamists. Only 7 women were chosen to take part in the 100 member Constituent Assembly.

Egyptians will have an opportunity to vote yes, or no to the entire constitution. They will not have an opportunity to disapprove individual articles. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place within two months of the national referendum on the new constitution, which is scheduled for the end of the year. Reading the MorsiMeter, Issandr El Amrani, The New York Times.

The current draft divides power between a president, and a prime minister representing a parliamentary majority. The Egyptian Parliament will consist of two chambers, the People's Assembly and the Shura Council.

The draft limits gender equality to the extent that it interferes with "the rulings of the Islamic Sharia," according to the Washington Post. Al Masry Al Youm reports that the wording may pave the way for fresh attacks on women's rights.

Osman El Sharnoubi of Al Ahram writes that Article 9 stipulates citizens' religious freedom. Christians are a small minority in Egypt, and the members of the Bahai faith are not recognized by the Egyptian state, leading to discrimination in the most basic aspects of life. 

The current draft eliminates the role of the state a protector of religious freedoms, limiting religious freedom  in comparison with the 1971 version of the constitution. However, human rights lawyer Ahmed Seif El Islam states that the new constitution appears to guarantee freedom for Abrahamic religions to build places of worship. This would assist Shiite, Jewish and Christian Egyptians in their efforts to build houses of worship, but would do nothing to assist the Bahai, or Buddhists. Egyptian Constitution offers fewer religious freedoms, El Sharnoubi, Al Ahram. 

Democracy under assault after Egyptian election

Egyptian soldiers near Tahrir in February 2011. Photo Credit Al Ahram.

Let me begin my post by telling you the word on the street, and then, I will update you on the "official news."

First of all, a completely non-scientific sample of people in my life produced the following election results. My office manager, who is actually a very observant Muslim, said that "at least if Shafiq is elected, we will have a civilized country, not a religious one." I think she meant civilian, or secular, but point well taken. My taxi driver had no idea what the dismissal of parliament meant, but was very gung ho about Shafiq. My favorite tour operator, who is very literate in both English and Arabic, and quite politically savvy chose Morsi, as the more revolutionarily appropriate choice.

Anyway, what I have heard this morning in New Cairo from a fellow law professor and a colleague at the UN is that Morsi has won, unofficially. That being said, the SCAF has also issued a decree strictly limiting the powers of the presidency. They also told me that the SCAF will appoint the Constituent Assembly, draft a constitution in three months, and then additional parliamentary elections will be held. Further, there is buzz that the SCAF will make all provisions in the Constitution appealable to the Supreme Constitutional Court. I have also heard that the military now has the power to arrest civilians for assembling in public, and other infractions.

Brief thoughts. If Morsy won, then the election was more or less free and fair, because the SCAF wanted Shafiq, one of their own. Then again, what is the point of having a President in the absence of a parliament. It is also yet to be seen if the president will actually be allowed to assume power. Further, I am not a fan of this rushed constitutional process. I also do not think that you can write a constitution from the top down. It must be a consensus process which is widely accepted by the populace. This cannot be attained if the SCAF appoints the members it desires with no feedback from Parliament or other major social organizations. Finally, as I have noted in previous posts, the courts are completely unreconstructed from before the Revolution. They are all Mubarak appointees. The Supreme Constitutional Court members were all picked by the former regime, which feels a lot like the current regime today. It is lunacy to give the Court the power to evaluate which clauses it approves. This is legally problematic at multiple levels. It will take me time to digest that.

Okay, so now, what does the paper say? Al Masry Al Youm says that according to their count (unofficial) Morsy wins with 51.3 percent of the vote. The news also confirms the expansion of military powers. Amended Article 60 gives the military to appoint the Constituent Assembly if the CA developed by the parliament does not fulfil its role.

Check this out.

The SCAF, the president, the prime minister, the Supreme Judicial Council, or one-fifth of the Constituent Assembly have the right to contest any clause issued by the Constituent Assembly if “it is in opposition to the goals of the revolution or its basic principles… or the common principles of Egypt’s past constitutions.”

The assembly would have to revisit the contested clause or clauses within 15 days, and if the contention holds the Supreme Constitutional Court should have the final word.

What?? So, the Supreme Constitutional Court gets to rule on the constitutionality of the Constitution? Very puzzling.

According to Al Ahram, which is nominally state controlled, Morsi fans are already celebrating his election.  AUC Professor, former MP, and liberal political figure Amr Hamzawy laments the restrictions on the newly elected president's powers.

Here is the text of the SCAF amendments (Made by decree) to the constitutional document. Given the frequency with the SCAF rules by decree, the document is beginning to look like a list of military orders.   

So what is the score card? Parliament: mainly Islamist, but some secular forces, few regime forces, only democratically elected institution in Egypt. Status. Dissolved, technically, but impressively defiant. . Judiciary: strong hold of Mubarak Regime appointees. Status. Very powerful. SCAF: the military, secular, but corrupt with strong ties to Mubarak Regime. Status: Currently holds executive and legislative power. President: election results not yet finalized, but Islamist. Status: unclear if president will really be able to be sworn in. 

Here is the New York Times take. The bottom line is that a power struggle is emerging between those who want a civilian state and those who want a military state. Within the coalition of those who do not want a military state, there is a conflict between Islamists and secularists. The Islamists and secularists will have to find an accommodation if they wish to work together against the old forces of Mubarak, now embodied in the SCAF. That is not going to be an easy pill to swallow, but as always, I am cautiously optimistic.   

~WMB
  

A worrying weekend as the Egyptian presidential election approaches

I am here in Cairo for June. Here in Cairo, things are a bit tense. My students are concerned about me. They worry that I do not have enough family to make staying in Cairo during the upcoming election safe. No matter, I have various colleagues, and we live in Rehab, which is likely the safest place in the greater metropolitan area.

Multiple political matters remain up in the air. First, who will participate in the Constituent Assembly, which is supposed to write Egypt's new constitution, is a matter of great contention. The constituent assembly is supposed to be formed of 100 people representing various components of Egyptian society. Yet, its composition has drawn enormous criticism from secular and liberal forces, including ElBaradei. Second, the Supreme Constitutional Court could disband parliament over the legality of the voting in the recent parliamentary elections. Third, this Saturday and Sunday a presidential runoff is scheduled between Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak's last prime minister, and the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsy. Shafiq may yet be disqualified under the Political Isolation Law. The Supreme Constitutional Court may declare the law illegal. Or, the court may choose not to hear the case.  However, the Court is scheduled to hear the case on June 14, 2012, only two days before the scheduled runoff.

If Shafiq is elected, and then disqualified, it could throw political matters--and the country-- into turmoil.

Shafiq is clearly the SCAF's preferred candidate, and his disqualification would loosen their grip on power. Also, the proximity of a potential court decision to the runoff is nerve-wracking. On the way home on the bus, everyone was making nervous jokes about our safety. One of my students says he is going to Ain Sokhna for the election. We asked him why he thinks Ain Sokhna is safer? He said, it is not safer, but at least it will be relaxing and fun. Good point.

Egyptian Presidential Election, Protests, and the Politics of Drafting the New Constitution

An Egyptian girl street vendor displays dairy products for sale under electoral posters in Cairo, Egypt, Monday, April 23, 2012

(AP)

 

Well folks, it is a busy news day in Egypt!

There is a big protest in Tahrir. It was called by the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafis. I like the concept, which is demanding a handover of power to civilians. I am less sanguine about the people who called it. The Free Front for Peaceful Change has refused to participate, saying the Islamists are hijacking the protests after abandoning the streets for months.

A Constituent Assembly to write Egypt's new constitution is being put together. A mediation committee has been established to end the impasse over the Assembly's make up, according to the Egypt Independent. So far, the parties in the mediation have agreed to grant 15 seats to the FJP ( Muslim Brotherhood) 7 seats to the Nour party (Salafis), and 4 to the Wafd party (center secular) out of the 40 seats to be occupied by political parties. If those numbers are correct, 26 seats have been chosen, leaving 14 to be filled by other political parties. It is not clear what algorithm has been used to date to fill the seats. A court ruling in March determined that the Constituent Assembly had to be reformed due to its lack of diversity. As someone outside this mediation, my concern is that it is not clear whether women, bedouins, Christians, leftists, secular persons, or new parties that are not Islamists are on this Assembly. There is a lot at stake here. If the new Egyptian Constitution is not well written, then it will be very difficult for Egypt to emerge into a full-fledged democracy. Check out an article that gives some insight into this process.

With regard to the Presidential election, the National Association for Change is attempting to agree on a single revolutionary candidate. Leftist lawyer, Khaled Ali is a human rights advocate who has been on the approved list of candidates. He has said he will waive his candidacy if a consensus candidate is chosen. The National Association for Change has stated that they support the following principals: the civilian democratic nature of the state, the guarantee of full citizenship rights without discrimination on the basis of religion, race or gender. The Association also said these ideas need to be included in the constitution. If the candidates fail to agree among themselves, a "committee of wise men" will be put together to make a binding choice, if the candidates fail to agree. On the gender equality piece, I hope a woman is on the committee.

With regard to the Mubarak approved choice of presidential candidates, Ahmed Shafiq, Hosni Mubarka's last prime minister , says he has the military and political experience to lead Egypt into a new democratic era. Huuhhh? I thought you were with the guy we fired last January 25th, Ahmed? He was disqualified by the Political Isolation Law, which banned former Mubarak officials, then 48 hours later, the Presidential Election Commission reinstated him. Shafiq has close military ties, and is certainly someone the SCAF (the ruling military junta) knows well, and would be comfortable with.

Recap of Election News for Egypt, February 1, 2012

Dear readers

The Egyptian election has a lot of moving parts. Accordingly, it has been a little bit hard to keep track of it all. To date, I have written 29 separate posts on the Egyptian elections.

So, what do we know?

Women 

One thing that I think is very interesting is how few women there are in the Egyptian Parliament. According to the best information I have, there are only 8 (eight) women in the Parliament so far. I assume that most of these women are from the Freedom and Justice Party or the Wafd, but I am trying to get names and specifics on this topic. Here is a good article on the same.

Ibtisam Barakat, Welcome to the New Egyptian Parliament, Jaadaliya,

In some of my previous posts, I had commented on which parties may or may not represent women. The lesson the liberal parties learned (I hope) is that if they really want a diverse party, they need to move minorities closer to the top of the list. It is my educated opinion [which does not make it a fact] that people actually voted for PARTIES, not individuals for the most part in this election. Here are some of my musings on the matter.

Which Egyptian Parties Represent Women?

No women elected to Egypt's parliament in first round

The Elections Aren't Over

Like the Egyptian Revolution, the Egyptian elections just go on, and on, and on, like the Energizer Bunny. The elections for the Egyptian parliament's lower house (People's Assembly) are not even over yet.

There are 498 possible seats. Only 427 have been decided. There are 71 seats remaining. As many as 45 seats will be determined by runoffs. They were supposed to have been held on January 10th, but I will have to look into that.

Shura Council Elections are (were) to be held on January 29th, February 14th, and March 4th in the same sequence as the PA elections were.

The date of the Presidential election has not been decided.

I was Wrong, but not far Wrong

Okay, how did I do on my election predictions?

Well, I predicted the FJP--the political wing of the MB--would win 30%. That was not correct. The FJP has to date won about 45.2%. So I was off by 15%. I predicted El Adl would win 15%. Oops! They only won less than 1%. I predicted that Revolution Continues would win 15%. I was very wrong there. They only won 2.34%. I predicted that the Egyptian Bloc would win 15%. They actually won 7.03%. So, I was wrong, but not crazy on that one. I totally missed the Salafi issue. Some of these errors are due to having lived in Cairo, and teaching at AUC, which is comparatively liberal and secular. Well, now we know.

More soon!~WMB

Egyptian Parliament convenes amid protests

Egypt's lower house of Parliament, the People's Assembly, convened yesterday, Monday the 23rd of January. It's opening was contentious, as protesters rallied to demand an end to military trials, a handover of power to civilians, and retribution for martyrs.

Doctors marched from the Doctors Syndicate on Qasr al Aini Street. Meanwhile artists and intellectuals held a march from the Cairo Opera House. The so-called "Creativity Front" demanded protection for freedom of creativity.

As many as 2000 protesters lined the street leading to Parliament, which was protected by iron gates, riot police the Central Security Forces, who were in turn protected--somewhat oddly in my view--by hundreds of Salafis and MB members.

Noha El-Hennawy comments that it is not clear how powerful the parliament is in relation to the ruling military council. The MB Democratic Alliance holds 235 seats (47%), the Salafis 135, the moderate Wafd 38 and the Egyptian Bloc 35. There are 498 seats. A variety of independents, including NDP remnants, hold the remaining seats.

Supreme Constitutional Court Vice President Tahani al-Gebali states that the military council still holds the right to ratify or veto bills. This right comes from the temporary constitution in place which was partly written by military decree last spring.

Despite its drawbacks, the Egypt Independent observes that this is the "first fairly elected legislative body in nearly six decades." (Noha El Hennawy, "Egypt's New People's Assembly Swears in Today, but Powers Are Dubious," Al Masry Al Youm, January 24, 2012)

Egypt's Parliament voted Mohamed Saad al Katatny of the Freedom and Justice Party as People's Assembly speaker during its first session. Katatny received 399 votes. Before donning the mantle as speaker, Katatny served as secretary general of the Muslim Brotherhood affiliated Freedom and Justice party. In his first speech, he stated tat "We want to build a new Egypt: a constitutional, democratic and modern Egypt." (Staff "Egypt's New Parliament elects FJP figure as speaker," Egypt Independent, January 24, 2012.)

Elections for the Shura council will begin later this month and end in February. The two chambers are slated to choose a 100 member panel to draft a new constitution, although at this point, anything could happen.

~WMB